LA Angels Weekend News Crash: Half Way Home

Okay, here comes a little bit of rant.

Every year in recent Angels history ?(about this time, sometimes earlier and sometimes later) we start to hear the blind, angry cries of “sell, sell sell.” Sometimes the tired meme of “Sell Mortimer, Sell !” is used and we see two elderly entitled white men panicking as the stock market crashes…

This is the typical atomosphere around CTPG or HH over the last near decade as the fanbase comes to the realization that their beloved team will yet again miss the playoffs.
So, in short, this season is no different.

The problem with this reaction is that it is short-sighted and based upon emotion, especially anger and disappointment. This disappointment, and the anger are both understandable. This franchise has underachieved in a major way for close to a decade, having one season, 2009, (where they reached the American League Championship Series and lost to the Yankees) where they could fairly be said to have reached or even outperformed expectations based upon the talent on the roster and the payroll. In short, almost the entire managerial career of one Mike Scioscia was marked by under-achievement and disappointment. And yes, before you think about objecting to that statement, winning the AL West filled with far inferior teams and then fizzling out in the first round of the playoffs when you have Guerrero, Salmon, Anderson, Glaus, K-Rod, Erstad, Molina, Eckstein on your team IS a major disappointment.

So, the Angels have let us down ALOT over the last 18 or 19 seasons at least. In 2005 we did win a playoffs series vs New York, so that year could at least be viewed as a decent performance. So, other than 2009 and 2005 all the rest of our seasons since 2002 have been disappointments. That is 20 years of disappointment folks !

The idea of trading players around midseason it a typical reaction of fans when their team falls out of the playoff race. My argument against this reaction is that it is primarily based on emotion. Fans are coming from a place of disappointment and thus, they understandably want to see change. The problem is that change for changes sake is not a good strategy. We all know the metaphor of rearranging the deck chairs on the Titantic as it is going down. I actually think that is an apt metaphor for what most baseball fans are doing in their minds in July when they cry “sell, sell everything.” In way they are doing something worse than that, because they are often ready and willing to sacrifice any chance at victory in the near future just to see change. That want to see new players on the roster. They are so angry and fed up that they just want to see something, anything change.

I get it. I get upset with the team too. I get tired of the same thing, year after year. But calling to trade all of your best players does not actually address underlying issues. The point of any trade is to make your team better. Sometimes the proposed trade has an eye on the future, and sometimes the goal is to improve immediately. The problem with most MLB trades that send proven MLB players out for prospects is that those trades typically favor the team that gets the proven player. This is the reality of trading — the team that gets the best player in the trade almost always WINS the trade.

This is the just the nature of trades in Pro Sports. If we look at the most recent trade of a top star in MLB, Mookie Betts, we see that the Dodgers gave up Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong! This was highway robbery! Not only did the Dodgers clearly win this trade, they absolutely CRUSHED the Red Sox. This was again evidence that the team getting the best player in a trade almost always wins the trade. Yes, Verdugo’s career is not over yet, but the Dodgers have already won one World Series in large part due to the addition of Betts and he is again this season put up All-Star borderline MVP numbers.

In another sport does anybody remember who the Bucks got back from the Lakers when they traded Kareem ?

It is just very difficult to get fair value in the trade of a superstar, or even an All-Star caliber player. The Red Sox did not have to trade Betts. It was a choice they made based mostly on money.

I do understand that the Ohtani situation is different. My post here is not addressing Shohei Ohtani (I will write a separate comment on him) because I do understand that trading him may become necessary next season. One of those cases where a trade is indicated are situations where a soon to be Free Agent star has shared his intention to “test the market” or hinted or even outright stated his intention to leave. In those cases the organization who holds that player and contract clearly does not want the player in question to simply walk away and they are left empty handed. Those situations DO call for teams to explore and execute trades if for no other reason than to cut their losses. Though we are not quite at that point with Ohtani, I do suspect that the writing is already on the wall, and that given another poor showing in the First Half of 2023 we WILL be confronted with the reality of needing to trade Shohei. But we are not there yet. SO, here I am not talking about Shohei.

What I am arguing against is the reflexive cry to “sell,” and by that it usually means “giving” away your best young players for what amounts to pennies on the dollar. All of the people crying to trade Ward, trade Walsh and trade any of our good young players are reacting primarily out of disappointment and frustration. First, when they do this they rarely if ever say WHO they would ask for or want in exchange for said talent. Second, if they ever do suggest who they would get in return, it is almost always unproven talent at the AAA or AA levels. This is simply not a wise strategy. Because it is so hard to predict what players will succeed and excel at the Major League level, trading proven talent like Taylor Ward for unproven players (even for two or three such unprovens) is not a wise proposition. Look at all the highly touted young “stars” who have fizzled or just flat out “busted” recently. Here is a partial list of Number One overall picks from the MLB Draft, all of which could rightly be called “busts ” and all in the last ten years : Case Mize, Royce Lewis, Brady Aiken, and Mark Appel. More recently the Phillies took Mickey Moniak and his career is still very young. Going back a bit other highly touted young players such as Jurickson Profar have fallen far short of projections. This is what you get when you rely on projections for “unproven” players.

Going back further you have alot of Ben Sheets populating the landscape of failed “stud” prospects. In short, a bird in the hand is still worth two (or even more) in the bush.

So, I not only do NOT think it wise to even entertain the idea of trading Taylor Ward, I am not sure what the goal would even be. Every trade should have a specific purpose. If your team has an excess of strong bats and a lack of SP’s, by all means trade a bat for an arm or two… But IF you want to do that the arm you get back should be proven. My rule is proven mid-tier player for proven mid-tier, proven star for proven star etc. What you get should be what you give. Unfortunately this is not how most fans think. In anger they simply want to jettison their current talent, usually for what amounts to nothing at all. This is not only short-sighted but stupid. What I really would like to do is shake these people and wake them up from their drunken stupor born from years of disappointment and frustration.

Next season will be here before you know it. While there is no guarantee it will be better than 2022 there is no reason we should be cutting off our noses to spite our faces.

Taylor Ward is a keeper. So step away from that ledge and put that knife back in the kitchen cupboard.