Trading Ohtani Would Hurt, How Much Might It Help?

The simulator is a tool and it is a bad one.

None of these trades give us anything close to fair value. I don’t care what the simulator says. You need to get two young, star players and two prospects for Ohtani, mininum. Prospects and one or two marginal players don’t cut it. Not by a long shot. I mean the Dodgers trade is a joke.

A prospect is called a prospect because they haven’t proven anything at the MLB level. We have to do everything in our power to keep Ohtani. Until Shohei gives us a strong indication that he would not sign with us we should not even consider trading him.

I think the teams that would be willing to trade for him are ones prepared to sign him to the biggest contract ever:

Mets
Yankees
Dodgers

In that order. The Dodgers seem like the team that is good because they dont sell the farm and back up the Brinks truck.

So the question is: who are the Mets willing to offer? Eppler and Cohen seem like the only realistic fit that would YOLO this.

I think what everyone’s missing here are two huge factors. First, what does Ohtani’s mom have to say about all of this? Just how deep is her depth of knowledge when it comes to the evil that stalks the halls of the Angel’s office building? Because brilliant minds have told me he’s just gonna do what his mom says.

Also important, apparently, is how often the Angel’s 25 man roster is having sex. If Ohtani is aware that everyone’s f***ing then he’s sure to know that the team has no legs and no grit. This will surely lead to him leaving as fast as he can.

Honestly I’m surprised he hasn’t just packed up and walked away like Bagger Vance already.

One thing I do know is we won’t trade him unless we know we can’t extend him. So if we are trying to trade him, GMs know that. We won’t be getting a small return for him, but we’re not getting a huge one either.

Of course my dream is to sign him and then up the payroll. But businesses exist to make money, so that’s a big maybe.

I’m not against the idea, but I’m not sure we need to trade Ohtani for an infielder. I’d rather get another cheap pitcher or two. We can get an IF some other way. In short, Moar pidging.

I have come to the conclusion: NO!!!!! Mr. Moreno get off your stinking ass and put a quality team on the field for both Trout and Ohtani. Enough of this bullshit trade crap.

So, if we do deal Ohtani, what would be the long term strategy?

There are two problems, I think. First, a lot of Angels’ payroll is tied up in just a few players–not too terrible by itself, but terrible in conjunction with the team’s unwillingness to spend on depth, which is what keeps the roster top heavy. Second, the pitching (development) situation, quite frankly, sucks. The numbers suggesting that pitchers who come here get worse seems to be a damning sign: either we acquire players on the verge of collapse (an indictment on scouting) or the coaching/conditioning/development is failing.

What I’m not thrilled about the idea of trading Ohtani is that it addresses neither failings. It does potentially slow down the further imbalance in the payroll, but it’ll be for nought if the money “saved” gets tied up on another expensive single player instead of building depth. (Which, I think, is almost inevitable). Dealing Ohtani won’t add that much depth –just a few pieces that will buy us a little bit of respite for a short time. Getting the roster fixed up (from bottom up) will need patient invest of a lot of resources which I don’t think the organization is capable of. So, Ohtani goes and nothing much changes for the better. I don’t oppose the idea because I, too, think he’ll walk as soon as he can..but, on that front, we know nothing, I guess.

All in all, the talk of trading Ohtani just sounds like negativity masquerading as pragmatism: it does nothing to really address the problem beyond putting a bandage to hide the real wounds, and that will be a very costly bandage.

Yeah trade the best player in baseball, once in a century player 2 players in 1 guy so we can build around the guy who couldn’t even put the ball in play with a man on 3rd and 0 outs down 12-11 in the 11th, par for the course.. A guy who barring injury can reach the 200k plateau every year the rest of his career and might reach it this year in only 145-150 games. The average defender, station to station 0 steals “leader” of the 14 game losing streak, 0-26 when it mattered most. The 1-14 with 2ks his only playoffs tho I’m sure if he made the playoffs today it be 3-14 with 2 solo home runs when game out of hand and 8ks. That hole in his swing can’t hit a fastball up in the zone to save his life ain’t getting better as he ages. Hasn’t hit .300 since 26, a .280 35-40 180-200k guy now and has to be the least clutch most overrated superstar I’ve ever seen. I assume Mays and Mantle and all the other goats at some point during 14 straight just wouldn’t have let that happen no matter how bad the team was. But it was Ohtani who didn’t let it happen pitching and hitting just to get us out of it. And now we want to trade him??? Lol

Ohtani comes around once in a century and even then only one team gets the privilege. If you can’t win with 2 players in one with that guy then well then you’re the Angels. But you run it back. You have Ohtani in his prime paired with the “goat” strikeout king, you don’t break it up early. Run it back 2023 the 27-17 start showed it’s not so far away. Something is just off with this teams culture which no trade will cure and trout a part of that culture he’s not a leader. You can always blow it up go young lose 100 3 years in a row but the Ohtani opportunity is rare and have to take advantage or at least try. Astros can lose springer and Correa to free agency and still be a top team lol. If we just lost Walsh we’d be even more dead lol if possible. What a pathetic organization

Trade him. The “let’s build around him” crowd are delusional.

Arte does trade Ohtani. He trades Trout before he trades Ohtani.

Ohtani it worth more to Arte than Trout will ever be.

Note I said worth to Arte and not the team.

That said, if it did happen we would need to demand more than 97.5 value back. Ohtani is a Top pitcher and Hitter in MLB coming off an MVP season and is worth “Two” roster spots which is invaluable to a playoff team. We would need to be blown away by offers.

A perspective from another team who thought they held on too long to their core, but at least they got one championship out of it:

https://sports.yahoo.com/jed-hoyer-cubs-were-too-202544893.html

The question with Ohtani is will he be able to be a successful two way player in three years?, in four years? What is his worth just as a pitcher or just as a hitter? If he were to blow out his arm, is his just a DH albeit one with a career .879 OPS? These are difficult decisions. His value is in his uniqueness as a starting pitcher who can hit but can that last for 10 years?

Interesting ideas and read, thanks for sharing!

Can we get a 2002 20 yr anniversary thread going? I’m assuming there will be more at the Big A than just a first pitch type thing.

The simulator is just that: a projection of what might happen. What if the team trades (again) for another player who fails to meet expectations (Rendon for example)? We are right back where we started minus the riches we gave away.

Ohtani is a known quantity. Trading for what might be is foolish. Better decision making in acquisitions is the medicine this team needs. And Dr. Minasian needs to go.

I’m not sure there is a “win now” option available with any of the trades you purposed. The Angels would be losing arguably their number #1 starter and your second best hitter, and to get those numbers back in any trade by the Angels brain trust is a reach at best. Any life long suffering Angel fan is well aware of the halos trade history.
How about offering of Ohtani and Marsh or Adell to the SF Giants for Logan Webb, Luis Gonzales and Thario Estrada, this trade would not be much of a “win now” scenario but it could be the start of a very much needed top to bottom organizational restructure.
Listen, as a huge lifetime baseball fan I love going to the yard and watching the greatest Sho in baseball and am proud he’s an Angel and would be crushed to see him with another team.

It would hurt a lot…but help lots more.

Jeff made a comment above about “this team isn’t going far with Ohtani.”

So, he suggests the logical choice is to trade him?

This makes absolutely no sense at all.

In fact, as an Angels fan, it pisses me off.

“The team isn’t going far” because of management’s choices in roster construction, a poor farm system, and a revolving door of changing managers.

The solution isn’t to trade Ohtani. The solution is to strengthen the farm system, bring a solid network of scout, coaches, managers, and administrative personnel and stick with them, and stop with the terrible long-term contracts for suspect players.

If you trade Ohtani and don’t cure the cancer in the organization nothing will change.

The Angels need to construct a culture of winning and excellence and start to build traditions and protocols that will allow for consistency and excellence on the playing field and in the relationship with the Anaheim community.

Jeff, if the best recommendation you can make is to trade Ohtani after the excitement and quality of baseball he’s brought to the Angels, you’ve lost me….

Ohtani sighing with the Angels was a gift.

And what did the Halos do about it?

Nothing.

Then didn’t surround Ohtani and Trout with enough talent to be two things:

CONSISTENT
COMPETITIVE

Damn, the lineup is top heavy. If Ohtani, Ward, Trout, and Walsh slump there is NOONE down in the order to carry the slack.

We can hardly manufacture runs from the middle of the order to the ninth spot.

We had, and still have, a gift in Ohtani.

And, everyone on the board wants to trade him?

He made 3 million in 2021, the MVP year.

He’s making 5.5 million this year.

Ohtani is offering tremendous value to the team. The Angels should have taken advantage of that and done something good with it.

Instead of squandering it.

Great write-up, Jeff. I have thought about this too. I agree with you that it is beneficial to see, visually, what we could hypothetically get for Shohei using an analysis that is strictly baseball-worth-driven.

However, how much is Ohtani really worth to a franchise– and in particular, this franchise, that has a modus operandi of extracting poster value out of its players? In this sense, Ohtani is probably worth much, much more than a few “equally” rated players in aggregate. Even worth more than Trout, imo. Let that sink in. Ohtani is worth more than Trout. What I mean is, Trout is huge in the baseball world, but almost non-existent outside of it. Ohtani on the other hand, is an international star, that many people recognize who are not even into baseball.

This means, simply, constant and predictable baseline revenue for Arte and his team, regardless of how it performs.

This is why Arte will work out a huge deal for Ohtani before any of these trades for some names that will be forgotten in five or ten years (with all due respect to the Gavin Luz and Luis Urias types).

Now that I’ve bursted your Ohtani-for-goods bubble, I do think there is an outside chance that Arte spends big once to get more players; but I only think this comes if Ohtani can put real and believable pressure on the organization that he will walk to any team that can promise him that they will put hi on a winning WS team.

The problem that Ohtani is going to have, however, is that his worth itself might preclude any team that wishes to compete from having the cash to both pay Ohtani and to build the team around him that can actually win anything without going way over budget.

This will be an interesting year coming up for Ohtani and the Angels.

I actually believe that if we don’t trade him (now or in the off season) he will walk away and we will have nothing. The question I have is in your shopping, are you looking for a rotation piece to replace him plus middle infield (ss), also are you anticipating going back to a 5 man rotation?

I don’t think the trade simulator includes the extra fans and $$ Ohtani brings in. None of those players mentioned will put butts in the seats like Ohtani does. Hence, for Arte to be willing to trade him, the return would need to exceed his value on the simulator. Maybe substantially exceed.