LA Angels Monday News Crash:

MLBTradeRumors:

12. Yusei Kikuchi: Three years, $60MM

“Mercurial” and “roller coaster” don’t really begin to describe Kikuchi’s big league tenure. The hard-throwing lefty has looked on the cusp of stardom at multiple points since coming to MLB in 2019 after a fine career with the Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He’s also lost his rotation spot more than once and saw the Mariners decline a multi-year club option when the first three seasons of his contract came to an end.

Back at the 2021 All-Star break, MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote about what looked to be a breakout season for Kikuchi. His velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and grounder rate had all taken strides. Kikuchi pitched to a 3.18 ERA with plus rate stats through the season’s first half and looked to suddenly be putting himself in position to see the Mariners exercise a weighty four-year, $66MM club option. He promptly faded, running out of gas as he pitched to a 6.62 ERA and yielded an average of 1.70 HR/9 down the stretch.

Even with that poor finish, Kikuchi declined a $13MM player option, betting that a team would be interested in his blend of velocity, whiffs, grounders and solid command. He and the Boras Corporation were correct. The Jays signed him for three years and $36MM, and his tenure in Toronto had a similar vibe to his time in Seattle. Plenty of high points, but also quite a few lows and even a demotion from the rotation. Kikuchi was a hotly sought-after name on the summer trade market, drawing interest from clubs like the Twins, Cardinals and others. But the Astros blew everyone out of the water to acquire two months of Kikuchi, and while the price they paid was steep, his results in Houston showed why they were so intrigued.

With the Astros, Kikuchi more than doubled the usage of his slider, reducing his four-seam usage and nearly shelving his curveball. The results were eye-popping. In 60 innings, he pitched to a 2.70 ERA with a gaudy 31.8% strikeout rate against an excellent 5.9% walk rate. Kikuchi’s 13.7% swinging-strike rate was well north of the 11.1% league average. His grounder rate increased. The quality of contact against him decreased. Down the stretch, he looked like a clear, playoff-caliber No. 2 type of starter.

Just which version of Kikuchi a new team gets will be an open question. Is he the at-times dominant lefty who can pile up strikeouts in droves and limit walks to the point that an ERA in the low-3.00s or upper-2.00s seems plausible? Or is he the same enigmatic, homer-prone southpaw he’s always been? Kikuchi’s individual skills have impressed for years now, but the sum of those parts has somehow been lesser than those individual components.

That said, Kikuchi can’t receive a qualifying offer and is a hard-throwing lefty who’s posted a plus strikeout rate five years running — including a plus walk rate to match in each of the past two seasons. He’s also been ultra-durable in his MLB career, with his only two IL stints coming due to Covid in 2021 and a neck strain in 2022. Toronto gambled on his upside in the form of a three-year deal when he was coming off a poor finish. The inverse is true now. Kikuchi will turn 34 next June, but his stock is still up relative to his last trip to the market. The Astros would surely love to have him back but have foreshadowed payroll constraints. Other viable suitors include the Tigers, Dodgers, Giants, Orioles, Red Sox, Rangers and Royals.

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