Welcome to this year’s series. The Angels face a tough challenge in a pretty stacked AL West. The bad news is the payroll is still very top heavy and the farm is pretty thin. The good news is there are young pieces to build around and if I play my cards right I might have a decent team in 2024 with room to grow into something really special.
Here are the ground rules for those who need a refresher.
My plan? Leave the lineup essentially the way it is -save a few depth pieces, add a few starters, and rebuild the bullpen.
Sign Jordan Montgomery – 5 years / 105MM / 21MM AAV
Montgomery was a 2023 standout and has been a workhorse the past 3 seasons. He’s obviously coming off a career best season and any long term pitcher signing carries some risk – but it’s a chance the Angels need to take to come even close to replacing Ohtani at the front of the rotation. The Angels need a guy that can regularly pitch into the 6th inning and make 30+ starts with a sub 3.5 ERA.
Sign Seth Lugo – 2 years / 26MM / 13MM AAV
Speaking of starters, Lugo impressed last year on the Padres. He tossed nearly 150 innings with a 3.57 ERA. He’s been steady – posting a 3.50, 3.60 and 3.57 the last three years (though 2021 and 2022 were as a reliever). He wants to start, and he’s very capable of that, but also brings some nice flexibility with bullpen experience in case the Angels need to shift roles or use him out of the pen in the playoffs.
Sign Justin Turner – 1 year / 12MM AAV
If you think Anthony Rendon will play 150 games, I have a bridge to sell you. The Angels need some insurance here and while it’s only a 1 year deal, Turner has shown he can still hit and play, despite being 38 years old. He can also play some DH and 1B and will probably provide some pop to the tune of 20+ home runs.
Sign Kevin Kiermaier – 1 year / 10MM AAV
Jo Adell is not it. Right now, he slot into the Angels depth chart as their 4th outfielder. I’d rather have someone more proven with great defense that can play all 3 spots. Kiermaier isn’t going to provide much pop but can steal a base here and there and can definitely play defense.
Sign Matt Moore – 1 year / 7MM AAV
Moore is the kind of solid bullpen piece the Angels sorely need. Let’s bring him back! The Fangrahps average has him at 1 year / 7 million, but I’d probably even go with a multi year deal here.
Sign Will Smith – 1 year / 4MM AAV
Another veteran in the pen at not much cost. Plus, Smith has been on a World Series team in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Bringing him on almost assures a World Series appearance for the Angels, right?
Trade Kyren Paris to A’s for Zach Jackson
I like Paris, but the Angels don’t need him right now. There are several good middle infield prospects coming soon and right now the Angels also have Neto inked in at shortstop for the foreseeable future. The A’s could use the young talent and the Angels need to build a better bullpen.
Trade Jo Adell to Diamondbacks for Round B Comp Balance Pick
As I said before, Adell ain’t it. He was, however, a former top prospect and sometimes these players just need a change of scenery. The up and coming D-Backs may feel he could help them and in return, the Angels score an extra draft pick. Adell is out of options so he either is on the roster or you move him.
Rotation aka – We don’t need another Righty
| SP | Jordon Montgomery | L |
| SP | Reid Detmers | L |
| SP | Patrick Sandoval | L |
| SP | Tyler Anderson | L |
| SP | Seth Lugo | R |
Bullpen
| RP | Carlos Estévez | R |
| RP | José Soriano | R |
| RP | Ben Joyce | R |
| RP | Will Smith | L |
| RP | Matt Moore | L |
| RP | Zach Jackson | L |
| RP | José Suarez | L |
| RP | Kenny Rosenberg | L |
Lineup
| 1 | 2B | Luis Rengifo | S |
| 2 | CF | Mike Trout | R |
| 3 | DH | Brandon Drury | R |
| 4 | LF | Taylor Ward | R |
| 5 | 3B | Anthony Rendon | R |
| 6 | RF | Mickey Moniak | L |
| 7 | C | Logan O’Hoppe | R |
| 8 | 1B | Nolan Schanuel | L |
| 9 | SS | Zach Neto | R |
Bench
| C | Max Stassi | R |
| INF | David Fletcher | R |
| INF | Justin Turner | R |
| OF | Kevin Kiermaier | L |
Clear Roster Space
These additions raise the need to clear some roster space. To do this, we’ll option Michael Stefanic, Griffin Canning, Jimmy Herget, Andrew Wantz, and Kolten Ingram. They will provide some AAA depth. Note that Detmers also has options so there is some flexibility here as to who the Angels option from the rotation.
Summary
The core lineup remains the same, but IMO we have an improved (and veteran) bench. We raise the ceiling on the starting rotation and replace several bullpen pieces with likely better arms. These moves come out to 67 million in additional spend so we fall one million under our limit.
I’m playing with IFIWPTP ideas, but Rendon and Trout are just so negative in their trade values, that you pretty much have to keep them and pray they are healthy, or completely scrap the team. If I’m scrapping the team for rebuild, no need to spend $200 million. This is hard, so good job Jessica.
Both are untradeable unless Angels pay a majority (if not all re Rendon) of the money owed. Rendon is an albatross. Trout is somewhat so but would likely garner some interest if the Angels paid 50% of the money owed. .
You could swap bad money for bad money – ie., Stanton for Rendon. But not much else you can do.
Good job – thanks for the work on this!
Nice work Jessica. I like the way you focused on pitching. I don’t think it’s likely this team would make the playoffs. But they wouldn’t suck either. They would probably be considered “competitive” in the Arte sense of the word. But man , the injury bug could quickly take its toll!
As usually I like it. I considered Turner but went Candelario. Same thought process
In your scenario Thaiss doesn’t have a roster spot. He could be traded for a lottery ticket or two.
Forgot about Thaiss. I was going off Fangraphs roster and they had him in AAA but I he appears to be out of options.
Thaiss is definitely out of options. That’s why they had to convert him back again to catcher last year (out of position), and why they couldn’t sneak him in waivers.
Turner is intriguing, but could we have Urshela back in the same role for less money?
I would jettison Suarez and his 8.50 ERA. Lefty or not, he is a gas can waiting to burn the stadium down.
He’s just there for mop up duties in blowouts
That assumes that Wash won’t use him as one of his favorite toys. We’ve seen that issue with other managers for years.
I had totally given up on Adell. But watching some of the Bees games and seeing how he looked at the end of the year at the plate, we might be selling at the low. His approach was much improved. I wouldn’t rush this one, because he’s still only 24. I’d want to see how he looks in the Spring.
I agree. He has a 0 value on the trade simulator. Given his age and possible ceiling, I’d like to try and hold him until he can bring me something of value
I am not ready to sell on Adell either. I can see getting another vet OF in case, but do we need to spend 10M on Kiermeier. There are often guys that can fill in for less later in the offseason. Pillar, Kemp, Marisnick, Pham could all cover CF and would be cheaper.
Hi Jessica , I like the depth you’ve added to the pitching staff and bullpen. However, I think Will Smith (Original Angel farm hand BTW) and Matt Moore are left handed.
All LH pitching staff!!!!
That’s what copy paste gets me!
Even so, they are good adds, I think. I would be happy to have them in the pen, and not cringe when they are called upon.
Love bringing in JT as he will more than likely see a lot of playing time. Kiermier is also a good back up choice. I see your reasoning with the rotation, especially a 5-man rotation, but leaving Canning as odd man out over Lugo is a tough call even though you do make a point on injuries.
Some far what everybody seems to like is the young players arriving and starting. Arte seems hell bent to push PTP to bring in mid-level talent with some name recognition so he can sell tickets and with Lugo and Montgomery you did that. BTW thank you for trading 200 strikeouts away finally.
I think optioning Canning is a tough call, and paying for two FA starters means someone has to go. This is the challenge with our ‘young core’ in the rotation – any of them could take a step and any of them could forget how to pitch. Do we bet on one failing out of camp? Don’t we also kinda have to?
I like your thinking with the pitching and I totally agree on Adell. As you say, the line up is pretty much the same one they finished with last year that lost almost every day. I don’t see this team having any shot at the playoffs so why keep Brandon Drury. I believe the new coaching staff will make a difference with the younger players and the team will improve. Other than Montgomery though, non of the other moves make the team better for the future. But you’re not committing any future money other than Montgomery which is good. It’s mostly let the kids play but don’t trade Trout. I think that adding either Montgomery or Yamamoto is a good long term move and that their starting pitching will be fine. The bullpen needs help and your suggestions for fixing it are solid.
Rosenberg over Bachman in the pen?Canning in AAA after pitching well last year? To me I think you try and move Anderson to clear room for Canning.I love the Kiermaier pick up as it also allows you to DH Trout more, but his contract was for 2 years on MLBtraderumorsTurner is a solid thought for an insurance policy on Rendon.Very clever on the Paris trade. Does he make sense for Oak?You talk about MI coming up, who did you have in mind for that?The SP has a bit too many lefties for my taste.I’m with you on Adell, but he has 0 value right now. Is there a way to keep him until the deadline and see if he rebounds one more time? There are also a few IL-60 guys that come back during the spring. There is going to be a 40 man crunch coming soon. DId you have a plan when they are back?
Sorry for how this paragraph looks. I used bullet points but it looks like the editor deleted all of them.
Does the Paris trade make sense for OAK? Only they know really and depends on how much they value the Angels #5 prospect. So maybe. As far as MI you have Neto already and Soto and Placencia as decent options. For the IL guys, Warren has options so can go to Salt Lake. Quijada if you want to keep him can hit the pen and most of the guys there have options. I also forgot about Backman – so yeah probably he over Rosenberg.
Jettisoning Griffin Canning to AAA was a surprise. I still think Canning is a decent middle of the rotation starter. Otherwise there are many realistic moves here that would improve the club. I am not sure that your roster would make the playoffs but it is a move in the right direction. A lot of the progress would depend on the progress of O’Hoppe, Schaunel, Moniak, Neto, and whether Trout can stay healthy, etc.
Bringing in Lugo & Montgomery means two had to go down unless we stick with a 6 man rotation (which I wanted to avoid). So it had to be two of Canning, Detmers, Silseth or Sandoval. Canning is fine and will pitch. There is no way all 5 guys stay healthy all year.