Welcome to this year’s series. The Angels face a tough challenge in a pretty stacked AL West. The bad news is the payroll is still very top heavy and the farm is pretty thin. The good news is there are young pieces to build around and if I play my cards right I might have a decent team in 2024 with room to grow into something really special.
Here are the ground rules for those who need a refresher.
The stretch from where we are to an AL West title is steep. I need to get younger, build a team that can take advantage of the new rules by putting the ball in play and running, finally put an ace atop my rotation and give Trout plenty of days off his feet. Here’s my plan
Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto 7 years $175 million
Every team needs an ace, especially a young one that is looking to create another competitive window. At age 25 Yamamoto is far younger than the average free agent. His stuff is absolutely filthy, he’s done it at the World Baseball Classic and the NBP Championship Series. I have no doubt this kid will be a stud at the MLB level and we get him during his prime years.
Sign Jung Hoo Lee 5 Years $50 million
I mentioned I want the team to get younger and here’s another 25 year old who has torn up an Asian league and is ready to jump to MLB. Lee’s contact skills with the bat are impeccable. High contact, low strikeout, ready to cover center or right field and let Mike Trout get off his feet and DH several times per week. He could very well be the Angels leadoff hitter by the All Star break but ideally I’d hit him behind on base machine Mike Trout, setting up hit and run opportunities with the bat whiz lefty at the plate.
Get to know the kid:
Trade Taylor Ward to Guardians for Sam Hentges
In this trade I pick up 4 years of a very good reliever in exchange for 3 years of one of my favorite Angels. Cleveland grows pitchers like the Emerald Triangle grows trees but needs bats so this is a good fit. I also exchange Ward’s $4.5 million for Hentges $1.1 million and give myself a little more financial flexibility.
Hentges is best with runners on and features a great fastball to go with a really nice curveball. At only 27 years old, Hentges is both experienced and in his prime; the perfect combination for a pretty young bullpen anchored by Carlos Esteves.
Sign Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 3 years $36 million
I opened a hole in left field now I fill it. The bottom line offensive numbers between Ward and Gurriel are very similar but Gurriel strikes out less often and has an absolute canon for an arm in left field. He’s also a better fielder and this pitching staff needs all the help it can get.
Sign Jeimer Candelerio 3 years $36 million
The current corner infielders for the Angels are Anthony Rendon and Nolan Schanuel. One is constantly hurt and the other is unproven. Candelerio has put up wRC+’s of 117 or higher in 3 of the last 4 years while primarily playing third base and occasionally sliding across the diamond to first. Most likely he’s my third baseman for the next three years while Rendon cycles through injuries. If not, he gives Rendon a couple of DH/rest days per week and lets Schanuel sit against lefties. Real teams have depth and this is how you get it.
Sign Whit Merrifield 2 years $18 million
The roster is thin. Having a guy capable of playing on the dirt or the grass, pinch hit, and steal bases is massive if we hope to compete at all this year. Anthony Rendon can’t be counted on to stay healthy and I want Mike Trout to get plenty of days at DH to keep him healthy. And at age 35, Whit could use plenty of off days himself. I’m not sure exactly where he plays but he’ll get into several games per week in some capacity. He might not be young, but he’s another high contact guy. I considered bring back Gio Urshela, but Merrifield can do so many more things than Gio.
At this point using straight math I’ve used up all but $300,000 of my dough. I need one more addition so I’ll backload the first four deals ever so slightly and move $2 million from everyone other than Merrifield from the first to last year.
Sign Nick Martinez 2 years $18 million.
Is Nick Martinez a starter, long reliever, or one inning reliever? Yes. And he’s very effective when on the mound. Last year he put up 110 innings across 63 appearances. Martinez gets a ton of ground balls (53.8% last year) while really limiting walks. There isn’t a ton of depth in the rotation or in the bullpen. Martinez single handedly makes up for a lot of that. He’ll be in the bullpen when the rotation is healthy and in the rotation when it needs help. But he’ll put up 100+ innings of well above average pitching throughout the year.
Conclusion
This team has a lot of youth, upside, versatility, and question marks. It gives manager Ron Washington a lot of flexibility to play match ups and situational baseball. It keeps the farm intact and does not cost a draft pick. It also opens up the DH spot to keep guys fresh. My focus on contact rate and speed also allows Washington to play a more aggressive style of baseball, harkening back to the game he played and taking advantage of the current rules.
The rotation goes Yamamoto, Detmers, Sandoval, Canning, Anderson with Chase Silseth, Sam Bachman and AFL standout Davis Daniel in AAA as depth.
Esteves anchors a bullpen with a bridge of Hentges, Jose Soriano, and Joyce for high leverage situations, Nick Martinez as a jack of all trades and Andrew Wantz for the middle innings. I kept Jose Suarez and Jimmy Herget so they get mop up duty. I’d love to add more here but at some point guys like Luke Murphy, Kelvin Caceres, Eric Torres and others need to step up; after all I drafted them to get here quickly and help. Sam Bachman is also expected to be full strength by Spring Training and could again be bullpen depth.
How to construct this lineup?
Against a righty Schanuel, Trout, Drury, Gurriel, Lee, Rendon/Candelerio, Moniak, O’hoppe/Thaiss, Neto would probably be the way to go. This leaves the third baseman and catcher who didn’t get the nod on the bench along with Luis Rengifo and Whit Merrifield.
Switch to a southpaw and we put Trout in the outfield instead of Moniak, put Candelerio at first for Schanuel, and have Rendon DH. In that case Washington is working with a bench of Schanuel, Neto, Merrifield, and a catcher.
Does this team chase down the West? I don’t know. And that’s the fun.
The team is younger, faster, more contact oriented, capable of stealing more bases and has a nice mix of veteran leadership to go along with a very young core. There’s a legitimate ace atop the rotation, a nice late innings mix in the bullpen, better overall defense, and versatility that allows the coaching staff to make multiple adjustments per game.
I’ll take my chances at a Wild Card with this team, which is the best one can hope for given the circumstances.
I am all on board with the first three moves. I can quibble from there, but a great opening bid. Well done.
Jeff, you won me over with one line :
“Every team needs an ace.”
I whole heartedly agree and with Shohei’s coming departure Yamamoto fits the bill.
Not sure I am on board with trading Ward, but the issue with bad luck/bad health does make it understandable. Gurriel is a productive bat but I might rather put those resources into a bullpen piece esp since R.Lopez won’t be around.
Did all the writers make one this year? Will you be posting one a day?
We are still figuring that out. I just survived five hard days of the respiratory crud, so it will be at least a few days before you see one from me.
Feel better!
Great Job Jeff but It looks like the Plumber fell through the cracks.
Neto, not everyday SS? Jeff? C’mon man. LOL
Just trying to work Rengifo’s bat in against lefties somehow. I’m sure Neto gets the bulk of the time at SS with Rengifo giving both him and Drury a day or two off each week.
Well, it’s not like Rendon won’t be manning 3B for his usual 19 games or so…..
Which is exactly why I snagged Candelario. Need a third baseman on the roster and we don’t really have one.
I like many of the moves, but two that seem superfluous to me are Merrifield and Gurriel. Both are solid, but not great players and not that young either. We do have some in house assets that are much riskier, but are cheaper or already paid for. I’d like to shift the money to another arm or two.
Good stuff! I like the Merrifield signing but Hentges is not enough to fix the bullpen issues. That will still be the Achilles heel of this team next season.
I also added Martinez. too.
Last year I was confident some recent draftees would save the bullpen. Now I’m not.
One or two Relief Pitchers will not turn the Pen into a top 5 Penh. But a trade of Walsh for a relief pitcher is a good deal because of need, money, and age. After all we didn’t ever have a winning record with Ward, time to shake things up.
I don’t disagree with the move – I’m just saying it’s not going to make the pen that much better. Every aspect of this team needs to be improved but the bullpen is the biggest weakness.
Jeff – very well thought out and the team would be decent.
One question- where do you get the numbers from? For example, what is the Yamamoto projection based on. Is there a reliable source for this info?
Given the signings this far, I could see a bidding war for a 25 year Yamamoto.
I used the FanGraphs projections. I used the median projection for each player.
Merrifield did not have projection on FanGraphs so I used MLBTR’s.
Maybe update the ground rules to have posters indicate their sources?
I like that
Just double checked, the rules already said to use FG or MLBTR for numbers, and to sanity check trades with the trade simulator.
I liked this approach.
The one other thing that I think about is that perhaps Rengifo is at the peak of his trade value and now is the time to make a trade there.
You have a point. It will be interesting to see what they do.
This is a very well thought out and intelligent approach and I really like the overseas acquisitions. My fear is they do something like this minus Lee and Yamamoto. Nicely done.
“I’ll take my chances at a Wild Card with this team, which is the best one can hope for given the circumstances.”
Greater words have never been spoken. This is the 2024 Halos now.
Did you DFA Stassi?
And Fletch.
Yes and yes although I see Stassi as retiring and taking a buyout. Essentially the same thing.
Id prefer to keep Stassi then just release him. Especially with a young pitching staff and a young catcher . In fact if Stassi wasn’t available I’d to acquire Machete.
He hasn’t played in a year and was really bad when he came back from his last concussion.
I think he’s done.
His concussion should be healed by now. He has a good reason to be out, so it will be interesting if he can make it back to in shape, and at MLB level (and if he has the focus for it). We do neet a veteran presence there – Thaiss did ok in the back-up role, but he can’t mentor O’Hoppe, so if not Stassi, someone.
Why is everyone so down on Fletch? Yes, I understand in hindsight his contact is less than ideal. And he hasn’t been lighting it up at all. But he is a “glue” guy that works hard and is a team player. There are worse guys to overpay and his contact is only about $5 million a year. Certainly he’s capable as a utility guy. Go back and look at some of the names they kept in that role in prior years. They should keep him and hope he plays well.
I love Fletch but he’s gone through waivers twice and there’s a glut of middle infielders available.
I could definitely see keeping Fletch and spending the Merrifield money on an arm.
You’re nice so I’ll go ahead and be blunt. Merrifield is a far more productive baseball player than Fletcher – even a past his prime Merrifield – and yet some people hold onto to the myth of Fletch like a death grip.
Whit gives us better Avg., OBP, RBI and SB than Fletcher. Make the deal for a solid baseball player.
I agree, Merrifield is an upgrade over the version of Fletch we have.
I do wonder, however, whether the role available might be well-filled by someone cheaper than Merrifield though. Plus, we already have brought in Candelario for the corner IF backup and still have Rengifo there, plus Gurriel, Moniak and Lee plus Trout in the OF. I really don’t see that final bench spot warranting the cost (which could go into improving the pen more).
Merrifield imho has very little to offer. We need a catcher too, maybe Garver? I love the idea of signing the two Asians to the team with one a legit starter and the other able to play both CF and RF. I’d also like to see Trout at DH too, but also work him in at 1B. Cleveland trade makes a lot of sense also as they need some pop in their lineup. Great job Jeff.
thank you.
Good article Jeff, nice catch on Jung Hoo Lee
Thanks.
As I stated in my off season plans pieces, I’m definitely more interested in the overseas free agents than the MLB class.
Lee could be a master signing w/o breaking the bank.
Now that the Yankees are involved I don’t see him flying under the radar
At what game is Shohei’s MVP bobble (Goodbye) hand collectible going to be given away?
Either banish him to the BP or trade him……..he’s proven to be a enigma.
I’m a enigma as well!!!
Then get a room.
For once I agree with you. But Gritch and I are still waiting for your 2021 IIWPM. You’re a bit behind there sunshine
I really considered trading him. Ran a lot of sims.
The problem is replacing him ate up too much of my spending money while not really netting anything I really needed.
At this point I found hoping an improved defense behind him allows him to bounce back.
Sandoval can only be replaced when better options exist. He’s not the only starter in MLB who seems to have better stuff than his record indicates. That happens. Teams hope for the light finally to come on. Sometimes it does.
BTW the Angels don’t have better options.
I’m AN enigma.
What’s the return at this juncture?
This dude is hella’ frustrating, I agree, but I think we’d be selling low?
Who’s getting DFA’d with all these moves?
Whit Merrifeld is a good signing. The Angels need another solid bullpen arm. Yasiel Rodriguez from overseas might do the trick for 3 years and $30 million. He is established and only 27.
Those would be two good pieces. Most other options are overpriced. I’m unsure they take the big swing at Yamamoto. But if they lose Shohei, he would keep them in the Asian market.
Gurriel is kind of what they have already as to OFs in Moniak and Adell albeit coming off a good year. It might behoove the Angels to stick with what they have. If Ward is healthy, it’s worth keeping him too.
If I stick with Ward then I have to buy bullpen arms. I just found it easier to replace Ward (and upgrade the defense) than to find a bullpen deal I loved.
Ward + $10 million free agent reliever = Gurriel + Hentges economically. This way I get a 27 year old reliever for 4 years rather than an older one for 2 or 3.
I don’t have Adell making the team.
Understood. The Japanese guy I mentioned was me buying a bullpen arm while keeping Ward. In general, I don’t want to trade him at a low point before the season coming off the injury. If the season doesn’t pan out, he will be valuable at the all-star break if he plays well.
I’m an affirmed Ward supporter, but I would support your suggested move.
That said, I’m not confident that Ward draws what you assume considering down year + blast to the face.
We should trade Ward back to the Blue Jays since whatever he becomes is on their hands.
I’m not sure about the math. It looks like you’re spending $73MM?
Never mind, I missed the backloading, but I thought the cap was AAV to avoid backloading tricks?
We’re still below the luxury tax line and Arte generally operates off actual dollars rather than luxury tax.