Here we are all safe and sound chatting about baseball. Most of us probably have “I Voted” stickers from Tuesday. Ah, freedom, choice, baseball. Thanks to all the men and women who served in our armed forces for ensuring we have these great things.
Now comes the shopping season and projections. FanGraphs has listed the Top 50 free agents with estimated salaries.
SI has their top 50 with predictions for where they’ll land.
Here’s a list of all the free agents.
And here’s a look at the Angels payroll situation for next season.
We’ll be rolling out our offseason pieces here. Arte has been running payroll of about $200 million in recent years. He’s selling the team, obviously, so he might want to keep payroll down.
However, he’s stated his desire to stay below the luxury tax threshold many times and that threshold is shooting up to $233 million which leaves a lot of space if he wants to try to go out a winner.
We’re working on a set of guidelines for the pieces that will be both sensible and pragmatic. And knowing this team likely far from reality.
I talked about all things Arte and Angels with Sam Blum from The Athletic yesterday. Make sure to give it a watch if you haven’t already.
Some more good news from the farm:
14 free agents will be offered a Qualifying Offer by their former club. Those players now have until November 20th to accept or decline the 1 year $19.65 million offer. While the representatives for Aaron Judge and the star studded shortstop class can’t decline the offer quickly enough, there are some interesting cases in Tyler Anderson, Martin Perez and Anthony Rizzo.
I’m completely shocked to see Joc Pederson’s name on that list. He better be saying yes faster than J-Lo when she sees a diamond ring.
The rules on the QO have gotten a little complicated after the last CBA, so here’s a great primer. The bottom line for the Angels is that if we sign a free agent with a QO attached we can say “bye bye” to our second round pick and $500k worth of international signing money.
You know, exactly what happened last off season.
Arte and his college buddy execs have a rung they haven’t reached yet. Are they really going to let Dan Snyder out scandal them on their way out the door? That’s not a baseball link, but something tells me these two teams share quite a bit of organizational spirit.
Remember when I linked the list of non-tender candidates? Ji Man Choi was on that list and he’s been traded to the Pirates.
Meanwhile Justin Turner is a free agent after the Dodgers declined their option on him.
The Hall of Fame has a new committee set up to review the cases of what is largely regarded as the Steroid Era. The discussion is one that is guaranteed to frustrate every side of the debate.
I’m sure there’s a ton of stuff I’m going to miss tonight and over the weekend. Please link it below.
More bad news for Arte. He probably cannot wait for the sale to be completed.
Of course this sale will be a long drawn out process. Leaving the Angels progress towards the playoffs in limbo for longer than usual. Because, trAdition. The more things stay the same, the more they stay the same. Wash, rinse, repeat.-Eeyore
If both these sc*mbags are in the BBHOF then everybody else should be in!!! Wayting for the 2B/CF and KowBOI will say now……..quik hurry to Wikipeedia and Baseball Reference or use a personal attak!!!
BTW many bad people get in all time, this angry soul above after his infamous Waseca MN Lion’s Club 1978 speech, plus Marge Schott, He’s not in, but MLB is full of his ilk…… BYE Donald Sterling and Robert Sarver……..
So, the speculation has started as to which nincompoops may get in the HOF. Now the yearly “New” system(s) have been added to make those on the edge can get in. Bleeding Hearts that do not take in the fact that steroids, corked bats or any substance added to a ball is cheating will put through a player because “I liked X, I used to watch him all the time and he was really good.”
The reality that there are a bunch of HOF caliber guys who also used steroids back when everyone used steroids is gonna really be tough on you pretty much every day for a few years to come isn’t it?
There goes our offseason.
Jesse Chavez is off the market.
Montero is off the market too.
Cishek is still out there
but if we sign Cishek would we be out on Selman?
Jon Morosi writes
“Sources: Angels among teams that have checked in on free agent Kodai Senga, joining the Dodgers and Rangers, among others, as previously reported.”
– Latest on Kodai Senga chase
Wow, so we checked in on a Free agent? Have they scheduled the press conference yet?
Already printing the poster to hang on the front of Angels Stadium
Dodgers, Mariners, Padres. Those are my bets. Maybe Giants.
I can see the Mariners involved for sure. Jerry is still torn over Shohei giving him the middle finger
But considering how well Yusei Kikuchi worked out in Seattle, I’m not so sure.
Ah, but with the success of Shohei, maybe the calculus has changed on Japanese pitching talents?
I checked in on him too, he’s a pitcher.
I am glad to see Clayton stick with the Dodgers and choose to remain a Dodger for life. In the same vein I hope that Aaron Judge remains a Yankee.
Judge will be a Giant.
IDK. It might be a little early to be so Judge mental.
Judging by what Farhan said, he will be the Giants new Aaron boy.
The amount of white hot bitch heat that I’ve seen building online from “diehard Yankee Fanatic” at the very concept of not signing Judge…. man the Steinbrenners better have bodyguards if he leaves.
And the day he signs with any other team the Angels should be there to graciously save their asses by offering Ohtani to them in return for Nestor Cortes, Harrison Bader, Anthony Volpe, Jasson Dominguez, Oswaldo Pereza, Everson Perira, Austin Wells, Will Warren and Clayton Beeter. Get he Yankees to overpay for the chance to still be Duuuuuhhhh Yankeeesth.
Unless Judge just doesn’t want to stay in NY I bet they match any offer even if it is stupid.
Yeah, he stays. I’d just like to see Judge fuck with Cashman and Hal by getting the Mets involved .
I would like him to do that, and then sign with the Giants anyway. (stashed far away in the NL – just wish the Pirates or Reds could afford him).
Oh, if Judge signs elsewhere, then the Yankees fans heads will explode. They were going crazy earlier this season when Cole was having trouble because of not being able to use the Spider Tack.
Steroid era? Hmmm. All the talk other than Clemens is usually about hitters. Remember, pitchers were rampantly juicing too, so there was some counterbalance. If Selig completely turned a blind eye and virtually gave players the wink to go ahead and take the juice, and he is in the hall, why not the players? Selig was equally culpable. Either take away his HOF credentials or let them in. And Pete Rose and gambling. He still got the hits. (This message was brought to you by DraftKings, the #1 site for gambling on baseball and official sponsor of MLB.)
Justifying a wrong with a wrong is a weak way to prove a point. Example would be using pitching in the steroid era as an example. What pitchers were winning 20 games a season consistently? The percentage of pitcher’s using PED’s lower than hitters. How do we know, by seeing the amounts that were known to use and got caught.
Cheating is still cheating and does not matter what form or type was used.
Selig never should have been included in to HoF. He was not there for the game; he was there for the owners only. If Bud Selig had a backbone at all, he would have permanently banned players found using even prior to the strike in 1994. The few that were using would have certainly scared the rest of the players to think three or four times prior to using. Rob Manfred is a disciple of Selig’s and therefore does believe in using heavy hand either. Many teams cheated by sign stealing, not just Boston and Houston. The excuse was giving amnesty so players would talk. Good investigating would have brought out the truth from Owners on down. MLB and MiLB would have survived.
Using Bad Behavior to justify Bad Behavior has led the MLBHOF to allow many players to be inducted into the shrine that do not belong in. It has made the Hal irrelevant now to many.
Over one hundred years ago MLB had a commissioner that saved the game by doing the right thing, lifetime suspensions handed out to 8 players. Another commissioner handed out to Pete Rose a lifetime suspension for gambling. Judge Landis was no nonsense and believed in doing the right thing to protect the game. Bart Giomentti protected the game. Owners by making one of their own top dog did no favors to the game. Having close ties to “Sorts Wagering” for the added income does no favors for the game and the owners will regret this down the road.
Should Ortiz be in the HoF? IRod, Piazza, how about Albert in 6 years? All the Game has accomplished is to weaken itself, and from now on the fans will increasingly not trust the decisions that come forth. Justifying a Bad Decision with another Bad Decision is making a Bad Decision.
I couldn’t agree more!
I listened to an interview way back when before all this when Bud was bemoaning the lack of stars in baseball and how it was so hard to compete with other leagues with Jordan and other top stars. And then suddenly the McGwire-Sosa HR chase happened and the brightest stars were in MLB.
We would sign the old guy just in time for him to fall apart…trAdition!
Ha! This is funny. JV hypothetically coming to the Angels for his age 40 season and beyond. That’s a really good idea – NOT!
Absolutely It worked really good for this guy:
And who forget this guy:
And this guy:
And of course this guy.
Let the TrAdition! continue
Last year there was chatter that the Angels were considering signing him and lots of folks on this site did not like that idea cuz “people just did not like him.” So Perry, had an option, either a 1-year deal on Verlander (no compensation) or Syndergaard (compensation). Big whiff.
Multi-year deal, pass. DeGrom or bust. But Angels are not going after the upper FA arms this off-season and I am fine with that with Perry’s track record.
I can’t wait to find out who wins the Anthony Rendon Award this year to the worst contract for an injury-prone guy named Judge in his 30’s, in this case, for over $300 million.
What’s going on in Houston? They just won the Series and people are starting to grudgingly accept that they are possibly more than just cheats…and the FO gets purged?
Conflict between owner and FO
Apparently Reggie Jackson & Jeff Bagwell are running the team now. I’m sure that will end well.
Astros General Manger James Click just became available. He’s got to be better than what the Angels have now, right?
Click has experience, that disqualifies him upfront.
All these Angels trades, claims and signings are just too much.
I just can’t keep up with them.
I’ve attached the blank sheet of paper containing all the signings and trades Perry has completed since the end of the season. I hope it helps track what has been a breathtaking few weeks of activity from Perry.
It has been almost a week since the season ended.
Exactly. Perry, what have you done this week to earn your paycheck?
Not signing a lame middle infielder or overpaying for a soft-tossing RP is a huge improvement over last year.
but wait. The offseason is still very young.
With Arte still calling the shots, it’s unfortunate that Click (Houston GM) became available now. A baseball executive that just won the world championship doesn’t get kicked to the curb frequently. He’d look good as our POBO-AVFCTSGF%DGTR#.
At first I was like “Ah wawnt thaht!” but then I had to wonder, how does a guy piss off his boss enough to get fired (or offered an crap 1 year contract) with the Astros record since he got hired? I mean, dolphin BBQs? Hosting Nazi poetry jams? What did he do?
I was thinking the reason was that Crane had been taught the “dark arts” from Arte, and he probably called Click from a “Whataburger” and told him he had 5 minutes to accept the one-year deal or he was gone. Click’s reasoning that he just was coming off a World Series win and several consectutive years of division championships that now was the time to get a long term deal worth mucho coin.
Crane also canned Click’s minion (assistant GM) too. Maybe Click was supposed to buy Crane a few beds from “mattress Mack” but forgot? Crane could forgive a lot of things, but missing out on free mattresses was a bridge too far.
“Click and manager Dusty Baker saw their contracts expire at the end of October and were offered only one-year deals earlier this week by Astros owner Jim Crane in the wake of the team’s World Series triumph. Baker, 73, opted to accept his. Click, 44, and Crane spent the week negotiating on a contract that ultimately did not come to fruition, leaving the makeup of the Astros’ baseball-operations department in doubt.”
“Click joined the Astros early in 2020, after Major League Baseball’s investigation into the team’s sign-stealing practices prompted the firings of GM Jeff Luhnow and manager AJ Hinch. He was brought in a few weeks after Baker, a forced marriage that nonetheless presided over three consecutive appearances in the American League Championship Series.”
“The Astros won their first title since 2017 last Saturday, defeating the upstart Philadelphia Phillies in six games, but questions continued to hover over Click’s status and tension had grown between the two. Crane’s involvement in baseball-operations decisions grew and his trust of Click continually eroded as the season went on, sources said. A deal Click previously agreed to for offensive-minded catcher Willson Contreras was nixed, sources told ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Hall of Famers Jeff Bagwell and Reggie Jackson continued to have a greater influence. ”
“Crane nonetheless offered Click a contract for 2023 on Monday, the day of the Astros’ parade through Houston, but Click showed up to the general managers’ meetings in Las Vegas the following afternoon without an agreement in place. A news conference was scheduled for Wednesday, but Click said he didn’t know anything about it. Click said then that he and Crane were still “having discussions” on a new deal, expressing hope that something would come together.”
“In addition to Click’s departure, the Astros also fired assistant general manager Scott Powers, sources told Passan. Powers was a former executive with the Dodgers who was brought in as an assistant GM by Click in January.”
“We’re different,” Click, speaking Tuesday, said of the dynamic between he and Crane. “Jim is — well, look, let me clarify. There’s some things that we do very differently. There’s some things that we are very lined up on and that’s going to be true of any relationship between a boss and an employee. I think he likes to act very quickly. In certain cases, I tend toward a more deliberate approach. He is very demanding, but he also gives you the resources to accomplish what he tasks you to do.”
He probably said that he liked Five Guys way more than In-N-Out, and insisted they make that the vendor at their ballpark.
Harris Co TX puppy e*ters
I’ve been looking through the “top 50 FA” articles that have come out, and their outlook is pretty grim for the Angels. But accurate. Or should I say “reasonable,” given our current situation.
It is funny how multiple places pick Clevenger as our one main pitching signing.
Syndergaard-like, I can see it. Perry traveling for a dinner and explaining the franchise direction on a napkin.
Please, for the love of Gah, no. Not nearly good enough anymore to make up for the douche factor. I also just plain hate watching him pitch. Keep Clevinger NL.
Probably because he would sign a 1 year “prove it’ contract while no-one else in the market will.
Clevinger wasn’t good this year. If we want to overpay a very mediocre fifth starter, that would be him.
I would hate to see that signing but it feels Perry-ish
Yet I think you’re missing the point. With the ownership situation, I do not believe Perry will be allowed to make any additional payroll commitments beyond next season. That really narrows the pool of available players.
Clevinger IMHO fits that bill and apparently the “experts” agree.
Of course the experts are always right. Right?
No. You’re missing the point. I would rather watch a ball sit alone and awkward atop the mound while a catcher and ump stare at it from behind the plate than watch Clevinger fuss with his hair and dick around “toying” with the hitter for 30 seconds between pitches. Cheap’s not a factor. Hell, they are giving herpes away for free these days but I still don’t want it.
But he would be the prodigal son returning home. We would finally be correcting the injustice caused by the Jedi’s Vinnie Pestano acquisition.
If the rally cry is no herpes no justice than justice can go fk itself.
I now have another reason I’d like to see a new owner take over and go crazy with the payroll…. I’d like to see all those sites that posted their Top 50 FA Destinations quickly recant and change all their predictions.
But I know that is just a fun fantasy and unlikely to happen.
The Corporate worship religion is wild. I’m trying to figure out why people keep suggesting that increasing payroll on a team expected to be sold for 2.billion by $20 million is harming any “value”. It’s a penny.
Expectations are closer to $3 billion. So to get our penny’s worth I vote we increase spending next year by $30 million
I say the new owners drop the payroll to 70 million and raise ticket prices by 20% to show everyone how strongly held their position against tax payer funded stadiums is. Leave it like that for like 10 years. Then build a stadium. In Nashville.
I know. Don’t you just hate “the man”? I know I do.
Arte won’t spend the money – it’s his going away “fuck you” to everyone.
Perry is going to rely on his guys to have better than average years along with the new baseball rules to propel the team into a WC spot. He is frothing over the ban on the shift and how that will improve the team. Delusional.
Kole Calhoun here we went!
It is reality, not corporate worship.
If I’m selling my car, I’m not buying new rims. Be a waste of my money and I probably won’t pick out the rims the new owner wants anyway.
Boy, I hope Joc sticks it to Frisco and accepts that ridiculous overpay. With a draft choice attached to his contract, he will get nothing on the open market.
But isn’t he the best and also the solution to all of our problems?
Giants will use him as a DH, has value there but I’m not exactly thrilled about it. It’s one year and they have a lot of budget to spend.
Are you just baiting me with that ridiculous picture of our GM intern and errand boy to Arturo. In any event, I had a good laugh.
I meant to add links about the GM meetings but nothing all that big happened.
New GM talent is available:
How about for POBO?
That was the first thought I had when I saw the article elsewhere!
I think it would be great to bring him in over Perry, get some of his Astros ops/scouts/chemists working for us. It could totally click.
YES! I did that!
I thought having a POBO would leave you on the porch drinkng Bartles and James.
YES ! I did that!
Nope. It’d be fine. I’m just not one of the knob jobs that thinks it will fix anything that’s broken, nor do I think a POBO is anything different than a GM by a different name with an assistant that is now called a GM. But having an extra brain or two around would be fine with me. Especially if the way to get a big ol’ brain from Tampa or St Louis is to hire him as a POBO…. sure, I’m in.
yes and thank you for your support
I’ve got no problem with him as a #2.
this should be fixed-
for the 2nd year in a row, Shohei Ohtani was not awarded a Silver Slugger as P in the American League.
hey i get it why, but its also a no-brainer to give this man the award that had been handed out for decades for the best hitter at each position.
Yeah, it’s a little weird.
Why would they still have a Silver Slugger award for a Pitcher in either league? With the universal DH The hitting pitcher is permanently dead.
But They should make a new award called the Ohtani award for the best 2 way player (pitcher that hits or a hitter that pitches) They can give to someone one else when Shohei finally retires in 10+ years
I think they should have a SS for utility players.
Jeff – my 2 cents – you folks can choose to consider it or ignore it – whichever, no worries.
For the IIWPM articles, if you want to keep them anywhere near likely reality, the new Luxury Tax threshold of $233 million should not even go into the equation. It’s likely irrelevant as a payroll raise would negatively impact the value of the team and Arte’s highly unlikely to do that with a sale looming.
Instead, why not use last year’s payroll number as the guide. IF Arte is willing to spend under these circumstances (and it’s a big IF) the ‘22 payroll is probably the high water mark.
We’ll definitely be close to last year’s number. Long term deals will affect the value, but shorter term deals won’t.
what is current payroll right now for 40man roster going into 2023 without signing any FA?
I thought we were 153 for some reason. I must have missed something.
I think that was (or is close to) Spotrac’s projection as is (I noticed that it’s at 157 mil now, and I think it has changed a few times over past month)
We are before the added stuff that goes into the luxury tax number. Check out the link I posted above from Spotrac and go to the bottom line.
Our second favorite team, Giants, are near $120M, will be active.
My honest to goodness totally based in nothing guess is that Arte plans to keep the payroll just about where it is so the numbers on a sale don’t change drastically over the next several weeks/months BUT he is willing to bump that up by what ever extra he has to pay to keep Ohtani cause big splash, happy dummies, oligarchy, pay one player 3/5 of some teams entire payroll, Bade Root, so much revenues.
That’s my sense, too: in fact, I would not be surprised to see payroll down a bit, say around 150 mil (there was a bit of logic behind me thinking 150 mil rather than 100 mil as a baseline).
Ok, according to Cots, last year Evil Arte’s CBT number was $206,866,667. This number includes salaries for 31 players ( 60 day IL salaries count too) as well as estimated player benefits of $16,000,000 and 40 man minor league salaries of $2.25 million. This put the Angels at $23,000,000 under the CBT threshold.
For 2023 the CBT threshold will be $232 million. We currently only have 7 players under contract. Adding up their salaries as well as anticipated player benefits and 40 man minor league salaries that puts us at $147.5 million. Now assuming that all 7 arbitration eligible players are tendered contracts (MLBTR is putting that number at $14.0 million) and assuming we have a 2023 playing roster of 31 players again and all of those remaining 16 players make around the league minimum from Arte McScrooge (someone has to take a roster spot, right?) our calculated total is just over $160 Million if we don’t sign or trade for anyone new. If McScrooge decides to go with the same CBT number as last year we have about $47 million that we can spend on over the hill or flawed vets. If by some miracle Arte goes right up to the CBT threshold that number goes up to almost $72 million in 2023.
Look for Perry to commit only to short term (1 year preferably) contracts as he did last year with Thor, Loki and Archie Bradley. I doubt he will be allowed to increase any of the long term commitment amounts without the concurrence of the new ownership team.
First time commenter here. If you want to be more realistic for IIWPM articles, here’s some food for thought…
Business acquisitions are mostly based on some measure of profit. A smart seller avoids making changes to the business during the offering period (i.e. until there is a buyer on the hook). Why? Because any increase in expenses introduces additional risk to profits. To a buyer, factoring in higher risk means a) slowing down the acquisition process so they can gain more certainty over the risk, and b) using the higher risk as leverage to lower the buying price. Thus, a smart seller will focus on avoiding a drop in profits as a first priority, and secondarily on protecting the revenue stream.
Next, I need to make a couple of premises based on my years as an Angels fan. Namely, Arte’s player payroll is essentially based on achieving a certain level of profitability, and that Artie views the attendance revenue stream to be based primarily upon having a few superstars in the everyday lineup.
Attendance is a big part of an MLB organization’s revenue (by some accounts 40%) and also significantly affects ‘per caps’. I am too GA to estimate the actual impact on per caps, or what the ticket price mix of the 6M lost actually means in terms of revenue lost, so I’ll keep the math simple: The Angels’ attendance dropped 20% in 2022 from 2019, translating into an 8% drop in revenue. I ignore 2020 & 2021 attendance for obvious reasons. I also ignore the impact of the 2022 strike given that the Angels had a full slate of home games.
Without any major increase in player expense (i.e. no significant increase in risk that would slow down the sale process or reduce the organization’s value), this drop should be considered the new normal based on the current operating environment.
The consensus around here is that the Angels have been rolling with $180M player payroll for 3M in attendance. It is a fair assumption that the selling price for the team will in large part be based on some multiple of the profit produced by these numbers.
It would stand to reason that Artie will focus on maintaining profit by targeting an 8% cut in 2023 player payroll ($162M). And secondly, Artie will want to keep the 3 superstars on the field (Trout, Ohtani, Rendon) as a way to create a 2.4M floor on attendance.
Assuming you accept what I’ve written above, then 3 primary rules for IIWPM articles should be:
I know this is depressing, but I think this is the most likely scenario for our team until a buyer is on the hook. Early acceptance would go a long way towards reducing a lot of the collective anxeity and anger in this group. Or, go all unicorns and rainbows and make the IIWPM budget $233M (and then we’ll lose our collective excrement as we roll into spring training and Artie/Perry have made no big splashes).
Welcome to Cesspool – we’re glad to have you join!
A sports franchise is a very unique asset, and ultimately the valuation of sports franchise is the price a buyer is willing to pay. Yes, I realize that’s a “Captain Obvious” comment, but I don’t believe traditional financial metrics can be used when attempting to predict what anyone is willing to pay for the acquisition of one of these unique assets. Sports franchises are trophy assets with very limited availability and ultra-wealthy individuals have often developed their own rationale for determining price.
Arte does not have a strong history with making smart player investments. Maybe his advisors have told him “don’t break anything”, so he’s locked down all expenditures. However, I believe there is a direct correlation between the quality of the on-the-field product and the ability to generate revenue. If Arte trusted his baseball people, improving the product on the field could increase the price someone is willing to pay for the franchise.
Of course we’ll never know because Arte will always be Arte, and his worst instincts often are at the center of his decision making processes.
I’ll ask you, cause I know you generally apply yourself. Maybe you can make this make sense on behalf of all the people who keep making the “stars increase value, winner increase value, sign many stars and win for selling value. Do now!” argument.
When? When has this proven to be the case? I mean sure, a team on a hot streak of many seasons with over 3 million in attendance has more value, that’s baked into the asking price. But What that really is is just market size/capture. That goes back years and years and is, again, pretty much where that “franchise value” number gets it’s legs.
No one’s paying a huge pile of extra money just because they get a team with stars on it as apposed to the same team, with the same attendance figures and other financials, but shed of it’s stars. At least I’ve never seen that. The Pirates are the Pirates, the Doyers are the Doyers. They are worth what they are worth. The team getting hot and drawing well for two months this spring doesn’t really shift that massive weight at all. NewOwnerz already know they will have to pay for various roster for God knows how long into the future and that attendance will be around 3M if the team is good which is augmented by a TV deal that will not be changing.
This all just sounds like when a kid in the back of a car starts telling his dad about how proper hydration helps kids learn… because he wants to stop by seven eleven for a soda… or an Ohtani.
Boy was I off on this take. It would have been a challenging excercise, but the actual IIWPM rules seem like they are going to be much closer to reality…I think.
THANK YOU to all who have served…especially their families!!
It was an honor and privilege to serve our country.