Welcome to the fourth installment of the If I were Perry Minasian series, where CtPG writers detail the transactions they would make for their desired Angels offseason.
In order to rosterbate responsibly, guidelines for this exercise are as follows.
- Angels end-of-year payroll for luxury tax purposes shall not exceed $190 million, giving the GM about $45 million to spend during the offseason. ($45,011,906)
- Factored into that projected payroll are arbitration projections from Cot’s. This shouldn’t deviate too much from MLBTR’s estimates, but we’ll use Cot’s figures simply for ease of use.
- When possible, use contract projections based on Fangraphs or MLBTR estimates, as experts from these outlets have a better pulse on the free agent landscape than most.
- Trades must be as realistic as possible. One popular tactic among baseball fans on the internet is offering a bunch of players you don’t like in exchange for some you do. In reality, that’s not how trades actually work, so that’s off limits. The Baseball Trade Values site can be a good resource for a sanity check often times, but each team values players differently and their wants/needs/tendencies should be taken into account, too.
My offseason priorities:
- Bullpen Pitching
- Competent position players and depth
- Starting Pitching
The Angels will once again be running out a six-man rotation, and it seems an inefficient use of resources to sign big-name starters, when the bullpen is equally a problem. Furthermore, Joe Maddon has demonstrated a penchant for pulling starters early, whether they are dealing or not (this is not necessarily bad). Market rates have been set for starters, relievers, and position players. Signing a position player or a reliever at the market rate would allow the Angels full value of those players. Signing a starter would not. It’s not as if the rest of the roster is perfect and we just need two starters as the cherry on top. Considering starting pitching is not the only issue that the Angels have, I once again fail to see how, given the budget constraints, the team would be best-served by going out and buying starting pitching.
We cannot go all-in (no funds), but we cannot not try in 2022. We’re stuck in limbo, and this is the way I decided to navigate that world.
Also, I do not think signing Noah Syndergaard at $21M is the best use of my resources in this experiment. If we had more money, I would do that. It is unclear if we do.
Non-tender Phil Gosselin
Sorry Phil, there isn’t room for a utility man who is not exceptional at outfield defense and cannot play all the infield positions.
Trade Max Stassi (C) and Luis Rengifo (IF) to the Yankees for Gary Sanchez (C) and Nestor Cortes Jr. (SP)
The Yankees have been rumored to want to move on from Gary Sanchez for a more defensively-minded catcher. It just so happens that the Angels have a player who fits the bill: Max Stassi. It hurts to give up Stassi, but the Angels will add a plus-arm in Nestor Cortes Jr. who is under control until the end of 2025 and cheap. His Baseball Savant page is beautiful, and he’s been pitching in the hybrid long-relief/starter role that makes him a perfect fit for the six-man rotation.
The Angels get the short end of the catcher swap, especially for the salary bump, but Gary Sanchez provides a threat from the bottom of the lineup, where there won’t be a lot of pressure on him to produce. His defensive metrics have improved, but this is largely a lottery ticket to see if he recaptures his 30-HR prowess. He can split time with Chad Wallach as the Angels continue to see if Matt Thaiss can be a Major League catcher.
As the Yankees are not planning on adding a big-money free agent SS, Luis Rengifo will have a chance to win the job out of camp.
Trade Andrew Wantz (RP), Taylor Ward (OF), Arol Vera (SS), Adrian Placencia (2B), and Packy Naughton (SP) to Marlins for Richard Bleier (RP) and Dylan Floro (RP)
Since I’m not going all-in on the rotation, the bullpen has to be strengthened. Richard Bleier and Dylan Floro are very solid, cheap arms that don’t fit into the Marlins’ timeline. By sending some second- and third-tier prospects to the Fish, including Arol Vera and Adrian Placencia, the Angels can secure the services of these two relievers, Floro for two years and Bleier for one. Both will help bridge the gap to the closer.
Sign Trevor Story
5 years, 115 million, backloaded as necessary [+12 million]
I believe Trevor Story is severely underrated, as few people truly take into account the reverse Coors effect. Story is an effective defender, and in a down-year 2021 he was still a four-win player. He’s entering his age-29 season, and the fact that he played poorly in 2021 means that his market will be slightly depressed. If we can snag him for only five years, this is a very good get. Story stays healthy, steals bases, and provides elite production from shortstop. I wouldn’t blink twice before offering him $23M AAV for five years.
Re-sign Raisel Iglesias
3 years, 48 million, backloaded as necessary [+13 million]
After pontificating for most of the year how I did not want to re-sign Raisel Iglesias, my strategy required me to reverse course. You’re not finding a better closer out there, one who is willing to get four- and five-out saves consistently, and the Angels will have to pony up the money to keep him. Iglesias will cost a lot of money, but he also solves a lot of problems.
Re-sign Alex Cobb
2 years, 21 million [+11.5 million]
I’ve also changed my tune on Alex Cobb. As I looked over the options at starter, I found Cobb increasingly attractive. He has stated that he wouldn’t mind remaining with the Angels, and getting someone of his caliber for just two years at market value seems like a bargain at this point. If he can give us 150 solid innings, I consider this deal a win.
- Brandon Marsh, CF/RF
- Mike Trout, RF/CF
- Shohei Ohtani, DH
- Anthony Rendon, 3B
- Jared Walsh, 1B
- Trevor Story, SS
- Justin Upton, LF
- Gary Sanchez, C
- David Fletcher, 2B
- Chad Wallach, C
- Andrew Velazquez, IF
- Jo Adell, OF
- Shohei Ohtani
- Alex Cobb
- Nestor Cortes Jr.
- Patrick Sandoval
- Griffin Canning
- Jose Suarez
Depth: Jaime Barria, Reid Detmers, Janson Junk
- Raisel Iglesias
- Dylan Floro
- Richard Bleier
- Mike Mayers
- Austin Warren
- Jose Quijada
- Junior Guerra
- Sam Selman
- Jose Marte
Everything won’t go right, but the lineup once again looks like a menace, the rotation can be viewed through rose-colored glasses, and the bullpen additions slide everyone down a few notches from last year and alleviate pressure on guys like Mike Mayers to deliver.
Too GA to do IIWPM, but here’s the guidelines i’d give to Perry IIWAM:
If you were Arte, what what would you do?
STFU, give Perry a budget and then just go figure out the restaraunt/condo ratio to put on Katella?
Or would you help him do his job with “hints” like these?
I’m just depressed, not sure how we make playoffs next year without: A. Arte blowing us out mediocrity with cash or B. Perry is actually a Hall of Fall tier GM. I guess we’ll see…
Keep Alex Cobb, keep Joe Adell, keep Patrick Sandoval and not pursue Frankie Montas, sign Thor over DeSclafani…….OMG!!
I better go check the calendar to see if we’re still not in 2019 still…..
I still can’t wait to see your IIWPM. It will be nice to finally have all the answers.
All this “Can we sign a starter, then add another 45M to the payroll because 180M isn’t fun” stuff reminds me of guys who start a fight with you and then ask you not to hit them in the face, or say they’ll kick your ass as soon as you let them go to their car and come back.
Just see what you can do with the parts on hand. If you want to, add a paragraph that explains what you’d like to do if the payroll jumped up a bit more. Yall realize adding Thor and THEN adding 45 million puts us well over 210M for payroll right?
Stop playing adult T-Ball. It’s sad. If payroll jumps that high we can all be drunk with joy together, but it makes this “game” pathetic.
Wait. Didn’t you just write ‘seriously’ that you figured out one at $55 million including Thor?
That brings payroll to $200m so it’s not that different.
Not sure your point unless you are just being sarcastic for the sake of sarcasm.
No…. maybe I just type badly. I did one at 180M including Thor. So we had 45 million to work with, minus 21M for Thor.
I wanted to see, if the worser case is true with payroll, what could actually be done.
Wait, duh. You mean the “other one” I mentioned that I didn’t post cause it was a pipe dream.
“But I have an idea that would work like gangbusters if they just raise it by 55 million. I’m not kidding, I really do. Can I use those numbers?”
So that was sarcasm? When you wrote “I’m not kidding” I took you at face value. Maybe that was my mistake.
Even so, I’m still doing “If I Were Perry Minasian on Chopped”.
Oh no. It wasn’t sarcasm. I did indeed do a IIWPM with a 55M payroll cushion instead of 45 after we signed Thor (so Thor + 34M to work with) but I realized I was just making up a jump in payroll so that an idea I liked would still work post Thor.
So I scrapped that one and made one with Thor but still limited payroll to see what could be done under those limitations. So 180M payroll including Thors contract on the books. After cutting some players, about 27M to work with.
That’s the one I published as a fan post.
Okay cool. Ill read it.
I looked but could not find your Fanpost. What was the date on it?
Here. It went up yesterday.
Really good work. Very well thought out!
Syndergard has a injury riddled career with only two good seasons ( 2016 & 2018 ) for $21M……..WTF Perry? Toronto signed Hyun Jin Ryu for the same money two years ago.
😠 😠 😠 💩 😭 👎
PS let’s not resign Alex Cobb either for crying out loud…..GEEZ!!!
Why the hell do we take such damm ridiculous chances?
I still can’t wait to see your IIWPM.
Hyun Jin Ryu signed a 4 year 80 million dollar contract after one complete season in Doyer blue that was followed by 4 injury plagued seasons that included major shoulder reconstructive surgery.
You talk about taking chances. That ,2002, was a high risk gambl undertaken by the Blue Jays. Under your logic, considering Thors younger age (29) compared to Ryu’s (33)
at their respective points in their career, The Angels 1 year contract to Syndergaard seems like a much more reasonable gamble.
I’d just like to remind people that these are hypotheticals that went through days of planning and then of sitting there waiting to be released before you read them. The fact that Syndergaard is now an Angel does not render a different vision for the off-season moot. The number of people who would rather just not read anything Angels-related other than the standard Top 10 Reasons You Shouldn’t Trade Mike Trout is fairly saddening. Be critical of a decision or vision, but not the fact that the post exists.
exactly, Rick! We can write fan posts ourselves, built around the Syndergaard signing.
Well then I condemn Stupid Perry & Arte for screwing up all of our fantasies.
I would propose a sequel, then (after giving PTP a little bit of time to make any other unexpected moves):. What I’d do differently if I were PTP now that we signed Thor.
Rick – I enjoy the series. I certainly appreciate the time and effort put into these articles.
I’m just wondering from a relevance standpoint whether it might be better to take a pause and have the remaining articles rewritten and the goalposts changed with the Syndegaard signing factored in.
Since it’s all hypothetical anyway – what’s the harm (other than some pain in the ass rewriting). And it might even make it more fun to see what it would look like with Thor on the roster.
The point is a difference in philosophy. It’s on a fundamental standpoint, and it’s to highlight how a change in mentality rather than just players named can go a long way towards a better future.
since the articles were written before any moves were made I’d say it’s equivalent to voting for the MVP or Cy Young *before* the playoffs. I’m reading them and enjoying them for the frame of mind that each writer was in at the conclusion of the season, rather than as a literal road map.
I agree, though, that there’s also interest in suggestions moving forward. Maybe I’ll try my luck if I can just get this work project done and out the door.
I like that idea! Maybe we open the door for fanposts that include the Thor deal abd a $45 million budget above that just to see what could be accomplished. Are the editors cool with that? I’d love to research and write one.
But I have an idea that would work like gangbusters if they just raise it by 55 million. I’m not kidding, I really do. Can I use those numbers?
We’ll pretty much publish anything as long as your clearly state your premise.
Will do! Thanks
I’m seriously calling mine:
If I Were Perry Minasian On Chopped
I look forward to reading it! 🙂
Looking forward to researching and writing it for sure!
Fair feedback! I think this is the 5th year we’ve done this and first time we’ve run into this issue at all, the Angels really moved quickly this offseason.
I will say the purpose of this series is to put together a realistic take on next year’s team if each writer was the GM *for the whole offseason*. However, doing this series doesn’t prevent us from writing analysis/idea generation posts for what the team can do from here. Each serves a unique purpose, both useful but different 🙂
Yep. The Thor signing definitely took us all by surprise. I like the fact that this site can accommodate all thought processes and analysis.
Remember when we got Simba really Quick?
i like this approach except Arte needs to spend some more money. We got Thor, now go get another ace. We need a solid SS so pay for it ……. and Story would work.
Shipping off kids for SP NOW is great. And keep J-Up as a starter – he’s not through.
Sanchez doesn’t excite me but Stassi for a solid SP I’m good with.
Can we just call out the 500lb gorilla?
Thor’s unexpected signing made all of these IIWPM articles a bit irrelevant not only from a personnel perspective but from a budgetary perspective as well. It has taken some of the fun and relevance out of this series.
Is there anyway to take a step back at this point and revise the goalposts to include the signing of Thor and the hypothetical $45m budgetary restraints on top of that? I realize it might be a pain but it definitely would bring the fun back into it.
1000% agree. Thor signing leaves only about 24 million in the theoretical budget and that won’t be enough for much. But that leaves open the more complicated question:. Just what is the realistic upper ceiling? (Esp with the CBA issues).
You can mentally replace Syndergaard for Canning in the above for mine!
But do we have $ 65 million budget now? IF we keep D-Cell and Cobb, add some arms, AND get Story (and possibly deal Canning for another piece…maybe a glove first catcher?), everything on top of Thor. That’d be something.
No, I firmly believe we do not. But 71 seems miffed by the constraints of this exercise, so I pointed out how he could tailor the above article to meet his new constraints!
Your missing my point. It’s just less enjoyable to read these fantasy pieces knowing the reality of Thor.
Since it’s all hypothetical, why not just include Thor and then apply the $45 million budgetary ‘constraint’ which is just a guess anyway.
My point is this series is supposed to be fun not a meaningful exercise in what Perry may indeed do or not do based on a fantasy budget. If you all are going for meaningful then you are probably taking yourselves too seriously.
It is WAY less fun knowing what we know and pretending we don’t know it just to support a hypothesis that we have no way to know whether it’s real or not.
The fact that you’re arguing that it’s not that meaningful (which I agree) is the exact reason you should just add Syndergaard to the above, which solves your quandary for this specific piece. =)
I’m actually not complaining about your specific piece and sorry if you felt that way. I’m focused on the series as a whole since I enjoy it. I’m finding it less enjoyable this year with the Thor signing ignored.
But I will take your suggestion happily as Syndegaard for Canning is a huge upgrade in my opinion.
consider this “what I would have done on Sunday if I were Perry”
Yeah I get it. But that is kind of hard to do. It’s like asking everyone to forget something they already know. It’s not as fun or relevant in my opinion.
I say play out this exercise as a competition between whatever Perry does in the off-season versus whatever you will do and see who does a better job at it, not as trying to guess what Perry would do but what you would do if you were Perry.
Done this way, Perry signing Thor is irrelevant.
The key (and constant) lesson from the constraints, though, cones down to that there just aren’t enough free resources, though, for a quality roster unless we get crazy lucky. That gets depressing (and boring) fast
I suppose the other exercise, trying to guess the “real” payroll will/should be is also beset with problems. I realize that that becomes a pie in the sky exercise fast, with the fans projecting their dreams on to what Arte should spend and jumps off the rail.
But I do think we want to keep this at least somewhat realistic. Thor signing already took out almost half of the projected spare room. If the current assumptions hold, there’s very little that can be done. (I have to applaud Gitcho tor coming up with very interesting scenario while taking Thor into account.). To pretend that everything is still the same, even with the Thor signing, seems a bit of madness.
It’s all just guesswork anyway.
When you wish upon a star
Makes no difference who you are
Anything your heart desires
Will come to you
I just put out a IIWPM specifically working with the fact that we signed Thor and still, as far as I know, have a payroll around 180. It’s all a game. The Thor curve ball is just a fun wrinkle. The point is to see what can be done. Not wait for more of what I wish would happen to maybe arrive.
Like that cooking show where they give chefs baskets of random stuff to cook with. It’s “what would you do?” not “who will guess right” or “who fulfills the most wishes”.
It’s “If I Were Perry Minasian on Chopped”. IIWPMOC. I like it!
Looking forward to reading your take.
Just noticed, Gitcho, that you are saying nearly the same thing I said above.
I disagree. I guess I look at these scenarios a little differently. I see all of them as “possible”. I don’t see it as a competition to get as close to what Perry will do. I see it as a competition between Perry and hypotheticals as to which ends up being the best in WAR (or any metric) when the season is all said and done.
It doesn’t matter what Perry has already done (Syndergard) or will do with the rest of the off-season. It only matters what results those moves generate in wins.
Battle away everyone. Compete against Perry to see who would do better. He is a little handicapped by operating in the real world but CtPG isn’t the real world so who cares.
That’s all well and good. Fun’s fun and I like fun. But I’d rather see who’s IIWPM worked out best at the end of the year. Why? Well, partially because I’m so much smarter than everyone and also more “baseball” than Mickey Mantle crossed with a maple tree. I mean, let’s face it, I make Nolan Ryan look like a gay barista. But also because Perry has to deal with Trevor Anderson deciding to sign with Texas because he loves ball sweat and Krall in Cincy turning down his trade offers because he doesn’t like any of our prospects. I don’t have any of those obstacles.
So at the end of the year, if my ideas provide more WAR than what ever Perry does, it would be neff for me to feel I “beat” him because I’m playing on easy mode and he’s playing a much more difficult game. But if we’re all playing with the same handicaps on CtPG then we can actually measure results at the end of the year and find out that Jeff Joiner es mas macho.
If there is one thing that these IIWPM exercises are showing, it is that we just dont have much room to maneuver. We can either get a couple of solid to good players (if we are lucky), get some quality but meh players, or take on some big risk and pray we get lucky. None of these yield a roster that looks like a legit winner, unless there’s more room in the budget (and even then, no guarantee that the players we like will want to sign with the Angels). Fun, but ultimately frustrating exercise…. :/
Appreciate the effort.
General question: although the “trade tool” might give the thumbs up on a hypothetical deal, when does a real GM (not named Tony Reagins) accept a trade where a quantity of scrubs is dealt for one or two quality players?
These “what if” articles are really a lot of fun, but can’t take a flippin’ one of them seriously.
Appreciate the effort but doesn’t move the needle for me. The Yankees might legitimately cut Sanchez, so that’s a non starter trade for me. Adding $5 mil in payroll which makes us worse behind the plate and MAYBE slightly better offensively.
The goal there is to get Cortez without giving up real prospects, I think. Still not a thrilling idea, I think, unless we have a good detensive catcher who can fill in a lot of games….
Acquiring a viable backup defensive catcher that can play a lot of games should probably be a priority regardless of this trade. Stassi has already had 2 major hip operations and a history of concussions. I’m not sure we can expect a huge contribution of games from him going forward.
Yeah, that’s why the simulator shows Sanchez’s value at 0. That trade is more about Cortes than Sanchez.
Yankees need pitching too though. If Nestor was attached just to get rid of Sanchez’s money (a la Cozart), they would simply just cut Sanchez. It’s def a unique trade and I see what you were trying to do, just seems unnecessary
Here’s an idea for future IIWP articles which might make them more up to speed. Honestly, as much as I try to accept the premise, the fact is Thor was signed. So, it might help to include that.
So – include the Thor acquisition and then $45m budget above that signing. So Thor is on the roster and you now have the $45m to play with from there. That might be very interesting and fun.
Why is the “solution” making the budget 200+ Million for these simulations every winter? Oddly, this is also the solution to most of life’s problems. Also, oddly enough, it almost never happens, unless you work for the state.
Very much appreciate the effort here. After having years of great catchers ( Buck, Boone, Molina’s, Maldy, etc.) having Sanchez would be difficult to watch. On the hand retaining Stassi could be gamble as he may of just had his “Career Year”. Story solves our SS issue and adds a bat to fortify the line up. So Arte would need to increase the payroll to bring in Stroman or trade for a front line #2 or #3 pitcher. I do not trust that Canning or Detmers or Suarez will all work out. Resigning Cobb and Iglesias are must do’s.
Oh – so you are saying Story AND Stroman and anyone else we need to improve the pitching? 😃
In that fantasy world Arte agrees to somewhere around a $225m budget for 2022. Yes!
I want you to control the purse strings Grandpa!
I suppose all the IIWPM posts have been made somewhat obsolete by the Thor signing (since it’s clear that money wouldn’t be there if we stick to the $45 million budget), so I guess there 3 big questions (that may still be relevant).
1. Trevor Story? I’d like this but not with the constraints assumed in IIWPM. If that were still applicable, we wouldn’t be able to afford him, period, unless some miraculous amounts of salary could be unloaded. Will Arte open up his wallet this time? If so, he’d be an interesting gamble much the way Thor (or Marcus Semien last year), but that in turn begs the question as to whether he’d sign a multiyear deal at all. I have a hunch that if he does sign with anyone, it’ll be probably a one year deal, like Semien, possibly for somewhat more money. He’d be a worthwhile get, though, IF other needs are met. (Edit: and if the budget were larger by 25-30 mil)
2. I don’t know how bad Sanchez is defensively, although NYY fans seem to think he’s atrocious. I suppose this is basically us taking over a bad contract for Cortez without giving up a real prospect (and run the risk that Rengifo becomes a new Urshella.). I’m a bit wary of downgrading defense behind the plate.
3. I like the idea for trade with Matlins. I really do think that Ward is badly underrated player who could prosper in a right environment and Miami might be that place, for all I know (and more important, hopefully, their FO does). I have no idea Vera, Placencia, and Wantz would look to them, but I don’t think this looks quite that outrageous.
Thanks for your thoughts.
I don’t think 12/25/26/26/26 would be too unreasonable for Story to take, which would allow me to fit him in under the constraints.
Yeah apparently Sanchez is really bad, but I don’t feel that the difference between he and Stassi is too big (in terms of overall production, not defense).
But catcher is a defense position first. Any production is just bonus. Sanchez might become unwatchable as catcher also helps to make the pitching better and he certainly did not do that for the Yankees staff which was way better than the Angels.
I agree with H27Kim that Ward is underrated. I think he could have an important role for the current team if they would let him fill it.
Jared Walsh has some pretty severe splits. For his career, he’s hit .306/.377/.568 (945 OPS) vs RHP, but has hit only .196/.225/.379 (604 OPS) vs LHP (The splits are even more extreme for just 2021). Meanwhile, Ward has his own opposite splits. He’s hit .211/.291/.375 (666 OPS) vs RHP and .265/.331/.414 vs LHP. Ward’s line includes his abysmal first two seasons. In 2021, Ward hit .303/.395/.455 vs LHP.
To me there’s an obvious role for Ward. Ward and Walsh should platoon with Ward also serving as a backup OF and emergency C (and I suppose emergency 3B). I know Ward hasn’t played much 1B, but that’s what spring training is for. For me, I’d like to see the offensive side of the team be something like:
SS TBD (I would like a new SS. I think that Galvis or Simba would be worthwhile. I’m open to Story)
Rengifo or Mayfield (or someone like that)
Here’s the problem with Ward: He’s not a baseball player and I doubt he will ever become one. He has no baseball instincts.
He grew up a catcher but his defense was so bad that he got switched out to third base. His minor league defense was so bad that he got switched out to outfield. He has a quick first step in the outfield but unfortunately he runs in the wrong direction to the ball. It would appear that he has some offense skills but is a consistently horrible base runner that can’t even figure out when to stay close to the bag and when to cheat.
TW has been a professional baseball player for 7 years now. Many of the things that he would seem deficient at should have been ingrained in him by now.Let’s face it, ff it hasn’t happened by 2021 It ain’t never going to happen.
Ward is MAYBE underrated when compared to current day Vernon Wells or Mo Vaughn. Ward is a .700 OPS player. He’d be a reserve on the Pittsburgh Pirates for goodness sakes. If you can’t beat out Upton for a full time playing gig or Suzuki for a part-time gig, you are not an “important part” of the go forward solution.
Dang. Good get on that Ward/Walsh info.
This has third place in the AL West written all over it
Hard to see how we can stay within the budget and be first without trading away significant prospect capital 😀
(and yes, the budget could be fake, etc) 😉
Okay – as for your thought experiment – given the constraints you were under – it’s interesting and a good effort.
Overall – in my opinions- too much money is spent on position players and not enough on pitching. Investing 20-plus million on Story makes little sense to me under the hypothetical give the need for pitching.
More specifically, I think the trade with the Marlins is fantasyland type stuff. Add together a bunch of mediocrity until you have enough on a fantasy trade simulator to obtain something decent. I doubt the Marlins would bite.
Your other trade is interesting mostly bc it nets a decent arm for basically Rengifo (catcher for catcher) which I like.
The pitching that you end up with looks like a max 84-85 win team with the possibility of 72 wins if the bullpen falls apart. The offense would look imposing but again – pitching wins Championships. In short – this thought experiment leads me to envision lots of fantasy angry content on this site in 2022.
If your opinion is that the number 6 and 15 prospects in are farm system are a “bunch of mediocrity,” not much I can do about that, guess we just suck.
More specifically, if they don’t want to take it, that’s fine.
I don’t at all see how it’s unrealistic, though.
Just bc a trade simulator says it’s okay does not make it okay. You could theoretically add up 1,000 “0.1” players to add up to 100 and it won’t net you a 100 player.
My fantasy opinion based on your theoretical thought experiment is that trade proposal would be rejected by the Marlins as a non-starter.
Yeah those prospects are not going to really interest anyone if you are seeking decent-good in return. I would estimate the #15 prospect in the Angels system is likely viewed as a 25-30 level prospect in a good system. The #6 is probably more like a #15.
Trading is going to require giving up one of Adell or Marsh if you want something really good in return; Adams if you want something decent-good.
Comes down to how you value the relievers that were targeted, vs the upside of Vera, Placentia, Naughton. Ward is better than he gets credit for here.
What is the Marlins situation?
One can’t just ‘discount’ the rankings of a farm – all prospect value is contextual anyway. Does it work in the context, with what the Marlins need and value?
Even though the Marlins payroll is less than we pay Trout (more or less), most of the people on their payroll are due for a raise – so the idea that they may want to shed Floro/Bleier in favor of some of their prospect arms (of which they took a few in Rule 5 last year) makes some sense.
Hard to say they wouldn’t bite – as HT Ennis says.
I agree with you and still think this trade would be rejected with the Marlins asking for a package including Adams for two established, cost controlled pitchers.
Reasonably priced pitching is always at a premium and this trade includes two MLB cost-controlled arms from the Marlins. You don’t get those for a bunch of mid level players from a poorly rated farm system.
I like the focus on the bullpen – but then agree with you on the Story move. I am not sure it is necessary – I think our D and offence are solid enough (though take a hit losing Stassi and not picking up a backup C).
I would be happier taking the 23M and putting that towards Thor (done deal) and Galvis/Villar (moderate upgrade at SS).
I think it makes more sense to have Story over Galvis/Villar for 150 games than it does for Syndergaard over Canning for 25.
Agreed, he is a better hitter by far and his glove is what is needed for ground ball pitchers. Yes added cost but is worth every penny. In 2021 we missed Simba’s glove and Galvis/Villar more of the same. Plus Story is younger.
Perhaps. But that is the position player over pitching move we have been making for a while.
Can we count on Canning for 25 games? Or should we spread the pitching risk out more. Thor, Sandoval, Canning are all coming off injury. The more pitching options we have, the better (imo).
Plus we have SS prospects 2 years away, so I am in favor of more of stop-gap approach there for the next two years, so we can get cheaper and then pay for what we need then. I don’t want another 23M contract past Upton’s and knowing we need to pay Ohtani.
So two main issues I think you have.
1) Going offense over defense.
To play devil’s advocate, how can you say the process we have been undertaking hasn’t borne fruit? If Trout and Rendon are healthy, even with a more “natural” Ohtani, in 2021 we probably win 85 games, which is just about outside the playoffs, where it seems the true talent level of the team. I firmly believe that position players are better bets than pitchers for a myriad of factors, and adding Story would just add another element to the lineup, where it’s not like we were leading the league in runs or anything! It’s not as if there’s no room to grow there!
2) Long term contract.
Yes, it’s concerning, but Story coming off a normal year would get a 6 or 7 year deal, so this is a bargain in my opinion. 5 years is perfect. In fact, after Scherzer and Stroman, Story is my #3 favorite free agent in this class. Similarly to how I expect Rendon to return to his normal self for at least 3-4 more years, I don’t expect Story to tail off and his glove is also solid.
Again I agree with you (rare, lol) except for Rendon. And yes Trouty is going to move to right field I hope. One thing that Story has over Seager and Correa is he does not get as hurt as much. Doubt he would sign for 5, but 6 is OK too if it means going to the WS which that line up could do.
Grandpa – I’m not sure where you get Story putting us in the WS. I do think it would mean the team would average 5-plus runs per game – all while losing a bunch of 8-6 type games due to lousy and unreliable pitching.
Think back on all the games where the Halos had leads in the late innings and lost due to crappy pitching. Think of all the Angels pitchers coming in with a close-and-late lead and walking the first batter they faced. Story fixes none of that and, worse, unnecessarily eats up lots of $$ that could be committed to improving the pitching.
Okay I’ll bite. Your question is “How can you say the process of signing position players over pitching hasn’t borne fruit?”
Look at the last 7 failure seasons watching the pitching and bullpen implode.
But for a fantasyland season from Ohtani in 2021 this team likely wins 70 or fewer games in 2021 without Trout and Rendon.
Without major upgrades to pitching, the Angels are looking at probably 80-84 wins in 2022. That just isn’t going to cut it with the closing window that exists known as Trout’s prime.
Maybe you feel the old axiom ‘pitching wins championships’ no longer applies and is the mantra of old and out-of-touch guys like I am. But after watching 50-plus years of baseball, I can tell you that pitching is the key. Accept that, ignore it, call me a ‘boomer’ – I don’t care. 😃
This team has enough offense as built. It needs pitching over anything else.
Lol, I don’t think it makes any sense to call anyone a boomer because these are opinions held by people of all ages 😉
Two points I would like to make.
First of all, 2020 and 2021 are different from the previous 5 years in my opinion because we weren’t trotting out a complete offense, we had guys like Valbuena (rest in peace) and Espinosa and the like. We built a complete offense in the past few years, to be derailed by a slow start in 2020 and injuries in 2021. I do not expect these injuries to continue. If you do, please inform me so I can adjust accordingly.
Second, I am a firm subscriber to the theory that value is value. Great closers don’t hold the lead 100% of the time, and great offenses don’t score 5 runs every time. What you can do is increase the margins at every point, and Story is the safest guy I feel to do that.
Okay I’ll bite. Your question is “How can you say the process of signing position players over pitching hasn’t borne fruit?”
Look at the last 7 failure seasons watching the pitching and bullpen implode.
>>> I agree with this. Unfortunately, this has been the case for the Angels. I don’t know if this approach has worked for other teams.
I remember during the year when Hamilton was signed, despite pitching being the obvious need of the team then, there were a lot of “I guess the Angels will just outscore the opponents 11-10 each night,” commentary. Obviously, we all know that didn’t happen.
Yeah but that’s on Hamilton being bad, not on choosing to allocate resources to hitters over pitchers.
If you think Story will be bad, that’s an entirely different argument, and one that I’m equally happy to have.
I don’t, and thus I don’t feel the situations are comparable.
The Hamilton example is an outlier not worthy of discussion.
Do I think the Rendon money would have resulted in better value for this specific team if invested in pitching- yes.
Same for Upton.
Unfortunately, all you have to do is find pitching that will take Rendon’s money and come here…. which, oddly enough, is what Eppler did before we signed Rendon.
Again – we 100% disagree (and that is okay). The offense is high level already. This team needs pitching-pitching-pitching IMO. Story would be like putting caviar on lobster – is it tasty – YES! But is it necessary- NO!
Adding Story over using that money for pitching would look a lot like prior off-seasons.
So does your IIWP assume that the Angels will rescind their deal with Thor and bring back roid arm?
Shouldn’t all these installments be updated to reflect some semblance of known reality now?
I simply assume we live in the universe we did last Saturday. As these are thought experiments, I don’t feel like constraining the experiment to what the Angels have already done is conducive to really sharing what I WOULD have done, especially since I don’t like the move under the current budget.
But isn’t the budget constraint you reference, and that underpins all of these thought experiments, just a guess? No one in the know has ever declared what the budget actually is.
This series could be called ‘Our Angel Fantasy General Manager Experiment With A Hypothetical Budgetary Restraint’.
That said, I love content and am thankful for these thought experiments that you all put a lot of times and effort into. But it really is fantasy land based on pure speculation.
Yes, but considering Perry is non-committal to saying payroll is going up, I think it’s more likely than not it does not.
We are in complete disagreement on that. Nothing the organization says can be taken as an indication of anything. The Angels are secretive to a fault. The budgetary restrictions that are imposed on this thought experiment are pure fantasy.
Having being subjected to almost 50 years of rhetoric from this organization (18 years of that under the current regime) I doubt any definite conclusion can be reached by Perry’s comments. I will say that they seem to be somewhat more positive then those from immediate past seasons.
Amen to that brother.
Sorry joining late…
Who is ‘roid arm?