If I Were Perry Minasian 2021, Part I

Welcome to the 1st installment of the 2021 If I were Perry Minasian series, where CtPG writers detail the transactions they would make for their desired Angels offseason.

In order to rosterbate responsibly, guidelines for this exercise are as follows.

  • Angels end-of-year payroll (based on actual payroll, not the luxury tax) shall not exceed $200 million, giving the GM about $45 million to spend during the offseason. More info on how we came to that figure ($45,011,906) here.
  • Factored into that projected payroll are arbitration projections from Cot’s. These are based on MLB Trade Rumor’s estimates, so there shouldn’t be any discrepancies here.
  • When possible, use contract projections based on Fangraphs or MLBTR estimates, as experts from these outlets have a better pulse on the free agent landscape than most.
  • Trades must be as realistic as possible. One popular tactic among baseball fans on the internet is offering a bunch of players you don’t like in exchange for some you do. In reality, that’s not how trades actually work, so that’s off limits. The Baseball Trade Values site can be a good resource for a sanity check often times, but each team values players differently and their wants/needs/tendencies should be taken into account, too.

Remember, no one has a crystal ball. Trades should be fair at the time they were made but can look very lopsided in hindsight. People on the internet will probably pull these up two years later and laugh at you. This can be very humbling! That is the nature of the game. —RS

Prior Installments

None, this is the first one!


My offseason priorities:

  1. Starting Pitching, duh
  2. Rework the bullpen
  3. Get ready to win in 2023

Everyone knows the Angels need pitching, and not just starters. Oh look – I copied that sentence AND my first two priorities from my article last year. It’s like Groundhog Day with this team. Last year, Perry set out to do something similar and well, he failed. Let’s see what he can do in round 2 – but while we wait for that, here is my plan.

Last year I went heavy on the trades but kept things a bit simple for 2022 with just one trade and some free agent signings. The problem here is we can’t fix the team in one season. There are too many holes to fill and only so much money (according to Rahul – and okay, every other season Arte has been owner). My plan is to make the team BETTER, maybe even a wild card contender if all the pieces fall in just right. But in reality, this is a build for 2023 because this plan still lacks some needed depth.


Non-tender Junior Guerra & Phil Gosselin

[$2.8 million]

Not much to say about these two guys other than see you later. I chose to tender contracts to Max Stassi, and Mike Mayers. Stassi can stick around next year and Mayers was one of the decent pieces in the pen last year.

Trade Jordyn Adams (OF), Ky Bush (LHP), Kyren Paris (SS) to the Athletics for Chris Bassitt

[+8.8 Million]

Sure these guys are the #3, #4, #7 prospects on the Angels, but there is depth at all these spots in the system. Baseball Trade Values thinks this is a slight underpay by the Angels, but it seems like a pretty fair trade to me with Chris Bassitt becoming a free agent after the 2023 season and the Angels taking almost 9 million of payroll away from the money shedding A’s. Bassitt would make a nice #3 playoff starter behind Shohei Ohtani and wait for it…

Sign Clayton Kershaw

3 years, $66 million [+$22 million]

Ben Clemens at Fangraphs has Kershaw at only $18 million for one year. With his pedigree that seems unlikely to me. The average crowdsource has him at $23MM AAV for 2.5 years and I went closer to that number. I can see more than a couple teams wanting Kershaw for 3 years. He still has gas left in the tank for at least 2 seasons I think and the Angels need an ace – or at least another ace next to Ohtani. Ohtani/Kershaw/Bassitt is a nice punch for the season and a playoff run and is a big upgrade from what we have seen in this rotation for years.

Re-Sign Raisel Iglesias

3 years, $36 million [+$12 million]

The Angels need a closer and Iglesias proved his worth in 2021. The average crowdsource rate for Iglesias is only $10 million but that seems pretty low so I added a bit. $36 million over 3 years just may get him to come back. He’s the anchor to a slightly rebuilt bullpen.

Sign Blake Parker (RHP)

2 years, $4 million [+$2 million]

Parker will be 37 in May but his stuff still plays. I’ve always liked Parker and he’s better than most of the guys in the 2021 bullpen. He was on a one-year 2.5MM deal in 2021 but he’s getting older and the Angels could probably snag him for $2M AAV with a 2-year deal. He is no closer but could fill in nicely in the 7th or 8th inning and could close an occasional game or two when Iglesias needs rest. Last season he had a .158 BAA in high leverage situations.

Total money spent: $44.8 million in 2022


Offseason in Review

 Is it perfect? No. As I said earlier – too many holes to fill thanks largely to a gaggle of 1-year deals last off-season. Upton is okay, I suppose, as a 4th outfielder – a VERY expensive 4th outfielder but you certainly can’t trade him with all that money and a full no trade clause. There are a few question marks in the bullpen still and infield depth could be better as well as our backup catcher options. Canning and Barria give you duration out of the bullpen and can fill in for spot starts. Additionally, the plan would be a 6-man rotation to keep everyone from blowing up over a long season – especially Ohtani and Kershaw.

Will the Angels be better? Yes. I think these moves give them a shot at a wild card spot in 2022 but they aren’t going to be division kings just yet.

I had targeted Jonathan Villar for infield depth but he would have put me 6 million over budget. Additionally, I had my eyes on someone like Mark Melancon to bolster the back end of the bullpen with Iglesias and Parker, but alas – that would have been 8 million too much.

Below, you will find the projected 26-man roster and depth chart.

Lineup (not in order)

  • David Fletcher, 2B
  • Mike Trout, RF
  • Anthony Rendon, 3B
  • Jared Walsh, 1B
  • Luis Rengifo, SS
  • Shohei Ohtani, DH
  • Jo Adell, LF
  • Brandon Marsh, CF
  • Max Stassi, C

Bench

  • Chad Wallach, C
  • Jack Mayfield, IF
  • Justin Upton, OF
  • Taylor Ward, OF/IF

Rotation

  • Shohei Ohtani, RHP
  • Clayton Kershaw, LHP
  • Chris Bassitt, RHP
  • Patrick Sandoval, LHP
  • Jose Suarez
  • Reid Detmers, LHP

Bullpen

  • Raisel Iglesias, RHP
  • Blake Parker, RHP
  • Mike Mayers, RHP
  • Austin Warren, RHP
  • Jimmy Herget, RHP
  • Griffin Canning, RHP
  • Jaime Barria, RHP

64 Comments
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Cowboy26
Super Member
2 months ago

I like Kershaw but if the Angels sign him I bet he’ll never pitch for us. This was the last public comments he has made regarding the arm injury that sidelined before the Doyers playoff run in early October:

“Clayton Kershaw said he was given a PRP injection in his left flexor tendon recently. He said that will be the only treatment he should need and won’t undergo surgery. He said he expects to be ready for spring training.”

Does this sound like a free agent pitcher that the Angels should invest $66 million in? Especially with our history?

Last edited 2 months ago by Cowboy26
Cowboy26
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Cowboy26

Also we need to end the Rengifo experiment now. I think he still has a minor league option left for 2022 so we can stash him at the Salt Lake for depth but if he is our main man at short stop next year we’re screwed.

Interesting thought is I wonder if the Angels are seriously considering giving Brendon Davis a shot at shortstop this spring. He had a breakout year rising up to AAA this year and concluded the season at Salt lake starting the last 20 games at shortstop. I have not seen any reports regarding his defense but I have think that Perry and the Angels brass would not have entrusted him with the SS position at their highest minor level if they didn’t feel there was some potential there.

Twebur
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Cowboy26

Platoon at SS, Davis part of that if he’s ready defensively. Mayfield, the new Yankee Ol’ Whatshisname, Rengifo if he’s around, Fletch once in awhile with the plumber at 2nd………or
Perry finds a trade partner, similar to last years deal, maybe a 1 year placeholder. Leaning toward a strong glove, less hit.

Twebur
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Cowboy26

Agree 100%, no Kershaw. I’m shocked at how many people have seemed to forget about the elbow and the back issues he has. Wouldn’t sign him with “Doyer printed money”. Let him go home to Texas, they can overpay him.

Only thing I’ll say, if I’m wrong, it’s the Doyer medical staff that handled/advised on the PRP injection…..Not Dr. Nick. We forget most teams have a competent medical staff.

Brent
Trusted Member
2 months ago

Please don’t do these again. Literally worthless content.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Super Member
Reply to  Brent

It passes the time. Just use your big boy hands and don’t click on them, you’re gonna be OK. There will be at least 47 links that declare the Angels need pitching, 40 that state we haven’t made the playoffs in 7 years, plenty of Skaggs stuff, and at least a few articles declaring that Ohtani needs to play in Boston or New York. Content galore.

Rallymanatee
Trusted Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Brent

Wow. Someone needs to let this guy know, this is literally all the content there is going to be until probably January. Your reply is even more worthless. Do you have a valid reason why her suggestions may not be the best?

JackFrost
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Rallymanatee

I did not get the feeling he was specifically being critical of Jessica. I thought he just doesn’t like the “If I Was Perry” series in general.

WallyChuckChili
Super Member
1 month ago
Reply to  JackFrost

The “If I Was Eppler” was much better

Keeyo
Newbie
2 months ago

That seems like a massive overpay for one year of Bassitt. PM should see if he can get Upton to agree to go home to AZ, which might be interested in bringing him back for one season if we take MadBum’s contract off their hands plus tie in the inclusion of Ketel Marte as part of that deal (yes I know some top prospects will need to go but the payroll relief AZ would get should mitigate the prospect capital being overly costly). That would solve one rotation spot and SS while barely increasing the 22 payroll.

Twebur
Super Member
2 months ago

$44.8 million sure doesn’t buy what it used to…….

h27kim
Trusted Member
2 months ago

I’m not sure if I understand the logic behind acquiring Bassitt here. If the goal is to punt for 2022 and plan for 2023, paying a high prospect price for someone who may (in all probability) not be around for 2023 seems to be a bad idea. I wonder if there are alternatives who might figure into the equation in 2023 who might be substituted for Bassitt at a comparable price. Would the Reds or Rox be willing to give up Castillo, S. Gray, or Marquez for a similar package? (granted, that could change the monetary dimensions somewhat).

JackFrost
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  h27kim

Yeah, I don’t think Jessica wanted to punt (nor should she, we don’t have time to punt!). We have “punted” on too many seasons already! I think “Boy with Apple” wanted to punt, not Jessica.

JackFrost
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  h27kim
BoyWithApple
Member
Trusted Member
2 months ago

I love your number three priority. Angel fans really need to get their heads straight and realize that securing a playoff berth is an unlikely outcome for 2022, but building towards a terrific 2023 is doable. With that in mind, I don’t think it is worth the money for the Angels to sign anyone this off-season to a one-year deal, and I appreciate that you took that route.

Kershaw is tempting. With all of the young pitchers the Angels are going to be sending out to the hill next year, it would be great to have Kershaw around for them to talk to and learn from.

You only have 13 pitchers on the roster you built. Last season the Angels used 40 pitchers. The Angels needed pitchers 14 through 40 to throw 376.2 innings. That is not an insignificant chunk of innings. Do we need to look at putting more than 13 pitchers on our imaginary rosters?

Last edited 2 months ago by BoyWithApple
Fansince1971
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  BoyWithApple

Remember when we were planning for 2019? And then 2020? And then 2021?

I think it’s time to go all in for 2022.

JackFrost
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Fansince1971

^This^

BoyWithApple
Member
Trusted Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Fansince1971

I don’t remember the Angels having a viable, coherent plan in place for the club to return to the playoffs in 2019, 2020, or 2021. When the Angels drafted 19 college pitchers this June, I did see the beginning of such a plan for the 2023 season, and I hope Minasian stays the course so this floundering franchise can become a title contender once again.

Fansince1971
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  BoyWithApple

Who knows how many of any of those draft picks make it to the show. Much less be productive at the major league level. I think it’s inadvisable to plan for such an unknown future based on players who have no history. Particularly after the last 8 awful seasons. .

BoyWithApple
Member
Trusted Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Fansince1971

We don’t know how many will make it to the show — that’s why you go all in and pick pitchers with all 20 of your top draft picks. I’m counting on only a couple/few of them turning into weapons for 2023. And then Minasian is going to need two off seasons to pick up a shortstop and all the high quality arms that it will take to turn this team back into a contender.

Fansince1971
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  BoyWithApple

It’s too pie-in-the-sky for me after 8 seasons of total crap basically wasting Trout’s prime. I’ve lost my patience. For all we know this is Ohtani’s last season with the team. We have had 86 games of Trout in 2 seasons it’s time to go all in and try to win now in my opinion. And I am normally a patient, delayed gratification type person. If this were 5 years ago, I’d be okay with your thought process. But it’s not and I am certainly not down with another season of mediocrity while we wait on ‘what if’.

Last edited 2 months ago by Fansince1971
gitchogritchoffmypettis
Super Member
Reply to  BoyWithApple

Don’t get me wrong, Perry did what I wished for in the draft and I’m glad. But most, if not all, of those pitchers are 2-4 years away from being important parts of our team.

Detmers was an MLB ready pick who was fast tracked, for example. This year’s gonna be more Canning, Junk, Naughton, Crisswell types… guys who made AA last year.

BoyWithApple
Member
Trusted Member
2 months ago

The 2021 draft was a great step in the right direction.

Another great step Minasian/Maddon could take is to give Oliver Ortega, Hector Yan, Jansen Junk, Andrew Wantz, Austin Warren, Jose Quijada, Jimmy Herget, Griffin Canning, and Johnathan Diaz a lot of innings in 2022 to see who will shake out to be a quality arm for 2023.

By 2023, two or three of Sam Bachman, Ky Bush, Robinson Pina, Davis Daniel, Elvis Peguero, Ryan Smith, Jose Marte, Kyle Tyler, and Cooper Criswell should be ready to rise from the minors and contribute positively to the MLB club.

The Angels will already have Ohtani, Sandoval, Suarez, Detmers, Mayers, and C-Rod.

In addition to that, sprinkle in the two or three high quality arms Minasian will be able to acquire through trades and FA signings this off-season, next season, and next off-season (hopefully Raisel Iglesias is one of them).

If you put that all together, by 2023 you will finally have a pitching staff that is ready to lead the Angels back into the playoffs and do some damage.

BoyWithApple
Member
Trusted Member
2 months ago
Reply to  BoyWithApple

By the way, whatever happened to Felix Pena?

matthiasstephan
Trusted Member
2 months ago
Reply to  BoyWithApple

He is playing in the Dominican Winter League

Biggiswrth
Member
2 months ago

Love the trade. I actually have something similar in my IIWPM which hopfully gets approved for the site. Love this series!!

John Henry Weitzel
Editor
Super Member
2 months ago

2 SP but losing prospects.

I mean, if Kershaw wants to pitch here, I won’t object.

Fansince1971
Super Member
2 months ago

How does one trade without losing prospects? And what is the problem with losing prospects? The chances of them becoming productive major leaguers is fractional at best.

Jeff Joiner
Editor
Super Member
2 months ago

Nice opening salvo. Kershaw on a six man rotation and not having to hit would be a nice way to extend his career a bit.

I’m so obviously in on Stroman I went with him, though.

MarineLayer
Trusted Member
2 months ago

Rengifo starting and hitting 5th? OMG!

Charles Sutton
Editor
Trusted Member
2 months ago
Reply to  MarineLayer

It’s tough to stay within budget. I did something about Rengifo, but I had to skimp on the bullpen a little.

red floyd
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Jessica DeLine

He’ll have Rengifo batting second: 8675309-24

JackFrost
Super Member
2 months ago

Agree with steelgolf; I very much like the Bassitt trade. This is a smart way to improve the overall quality of our staff. I am however not on board with the Kershaw acquisition. I have stated it elsewhere that because of our recent history we need to acquire pitching that is not high risk for injury. Of course, all pitchers are potentially one pitch away from the IL. That said, Kershaw’s balky back is very concerning. This has been an ongoing issue for him. And now, in 2021 his forearm issue cropped up. He is a little too high risk for my taste.

steelgolf
Super Member
2 months ago

Like the Bassitt pick up, though it will sting losing Paris and Bush, but to get value in a trade you have to give value back and Oakland is looking to shed money. Now, I think the Kershaw signing is too big a risk, especially for 3 years. He has a wonky back and now arm / shoulder issues too. He will definitely go on the DL/IL for a significant time and add bullpen games to the schedule that would very likely sink the Angels playoff chances unless there is a major expansion in playoff games in the new CBA.

ryanfea
Trusted Member
2 months ago

Love the series, always frustrated at the salary cap. If Arte was serious about winning, our payroll should be 200 million plus

matthiasstephan
Trusted Member
2 months ago

I would be a bit sad losing Paris, and might look hard at seeing if there is a different prospect that would work.

It isn’t that Paris is a deal-breaker, but I think we need depth at SS so we can (in a year, or two) fill that spot internally and not need to shop for a Villar/Galvis type (as Jessica wanted to do). I am not convinced our internal candidates (Velasquez, Rengifo, or even the Plumber) pan out long(er) term. More upside with Paris and Jackson, so I am hoping that competition nets us one long-term SS.

(Also, I would pencil in Ward over Wallach – and I can’t believe we run with only him as a back up C moving forward).

Great food for thought though, so thank you Jessica for a great opening post to the series.

Last edited 2 months ago by matthiasstephan
admkir
Trusted Member
2 months ago

Would Stroman be a better choice over Kershaw

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Super Member

Parker. Not a bad upgrade at the price. That Bassitt trade is realistic and will help us. We’ll likely need to do something like this. Kershaw…. he’s still really good, but obviously a gamble health wise… he’s like 3/4 of Scherzer at 2/3 the price with some injury risk. As long as you think through how we’ll handle the starts he misses every year it’s a gamble that could work out. PLUS we keep Raisel. The plans got risks but could also work AND it’s a plan the Angels could actually pull off if LAD lowball Kershaw.

This looks like you have a fair amount of faith in some of our current pen arms and back end of the rotation depth?

jco
Member
jco
2 months ago

I love this series and appreciate the good work. I like the basic premise of getting two good starting pitchers and shoring up the bullpen a little. Kershaw makes me nervous with his late season injury and the Dodgers non-QO decision. They claim it was out of respect, but they also have a better sense of Kershaw’s injury than other teams.

I’m skeptical that Iglesias signs for 3-36. I think the QO would be better for him. If his agents think he will only get 3-36, then he’ll accept the QO and go into free agency next year unencumbered.

Last edited 2 months ago by jco
jco
Member
jco
2 months ago
Reply to  Jessica DeLine

I’d take the 1-year $18 million and hope to do better than 2/18 the following year (w/o the qualifying offer). I saw the crowdsource number and it seems really low. Ben Clemens at Fangraphs has 3/45. MLBTR predicts 4/56 for Iglesias.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Super Member
Reply to  jco

Yeah, he’s the obvious top of the market. Any team that is making a lock down pen arm a priority is going to be planning to throw a pretty heavy contract at him.

red floyd
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  jco

4/56? But then we’d be out on Wilson!

Mountainman76
Member
2 months ago
Reply to  red floyd

and Granderson

red floyd
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Mountainman76

Is he available?

admkir
Trusted Member
2 months ago

1 problem, I thought they already released Barreto

Senator_John_Blutarsky
Super Member
2 months ago

From a “If I were Perry” rules standpoint, can contracts be backloaded to take advantage of Upton being gone after this season?

As for Jessica’s strategy – good job! I’d personally look to use all the available budget on a #1 and #2 starter, with Ohtani being the #3. The better the SP, the less important more RP depth will be (IMHO).

Charles Sutton
Editor
Trusted Member
2 months ago

We backload sometimes. Is it a deal the player will go for?

H.T. Ennis
Admin
Super Member
2 months ago

Love Kershaw, like Bassitt, but I’m not sure I want Rengifo at SS at the expense of those two. We’ll see…we’re probably screwed either way.

admkir
Trusted Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Jessica DeLine

Does the kid they protected from rule 5 play ss, and good to see you posting

Fansince1971
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Jessica DeLine

That is why Perry will have more money to spend. Otherwise it’s an exercise in futility.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Super Member
Reply to  H.T. Ennis

I’m not saying he’s the bees knees, but I think that Velazquez guy we picked up off the Yankees roster may actually get more mileage than we realize this year. On their boards I actually saw some folks complaining about letting him go (though he is kind of their Stefanic, gritty and from New York). But it made me look. His MiLB offensive numbers are stronger than I realized, and he can field SS. He’s not an all star at all, but he may be able to defend well and produce like Iglesias did.

I bet he gets a long look in ST.

H.T. Ennis
Admin
Super Member
2 months ago

Yes, I have him breaking the team over Mayfield (bench). 27, so primed for a breakout, but honestly if you’re telling me I have to pick between Stroman/Kershaw + Velazquez/in-house vs. Barria + Story/Correa, I’m picking the latter 10/10 times.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Super Member
Reply to  H.T. Ennis

So you’re more a “beat em 8 to 6” type guy. Could be worth a try. If our team averages 5 runs a game having a team ERA around 4 isn’t the end of the world. Could get totally stifled in the play offs, but that’s a bridge we have to get to first.

H.T. Ennis
Admin
Super Member
2 months ago

Insert “always have been” meme

=)