LA Angels Weekend News Crash: So Stuffed

Yusei Kikuchi helps the Angels, but he can’t be their big offseason move: Keith Law
Yusei Kikuchi is exactly what the Angels need to be competitors, as long as they also sign three more starters and Juan Soto. And maybe that wouldn’t even be enough.

Kikuchi is a start for the Halos, who return just one starter who made more than 20 starts or threw more than 120 innings last year. That starter was lefty Tyler Anderson, who was pretty bad in the first year of his three-year deal but was above-average by ERA and below-average by FIP in 2024. That’s a long way of saying they had zero reliable starters going into the offseason, defining reliable as someone likely to be average and at least pitch enough to qualify for the ERA title (162 IP). Never mind contention; the Angels were shaping up to be non-competitive.

Since the World Series ended, they’ve traded Griffin Canning (who just had his first full season in the majors in 2024, but had an ERA and FIP over 5) and added Kyle Hendricks (who just had his worst season and might be done). Their rotation, on paper, was one of the worst in the majors, whether we’re talking quality of work or just quantity of innings; their five most likely starters pre-Kikuchi threw a total of 590 innings in 2024, and about 30 percent of those were by the 35-year-old Anderson alone.

That is a roundabout way of saying that Kikuchi can help the Angels even if he’s just an average starter because he’s produced 343 1/3 innings of roughly league-average performance over the past two seasons. He did pitch far, far better than that after Toronto traded him to Houston at the deadline this year, with a 2.70 ERA/3.07 FIP with the Astros, because he completely changed his pitch mix, more than doubling his use of his slider (17 percent to 37 percent), cutting back somewhat on the four-seamer (just under 50 percent to 42 percent), and mostly shelving his curveball (23 percent to just under 10 percent).

Guess what his best pitch is? His slider is effective because it’s very hard, the fifth-hardest velocity among starters’ sliders last year, without a ton of break in either direction. His slider was worth plus-8 runs saved in 2023, and plus-7 in 2024, dropping only because he threw it less in total in the more recent year. He missed bats at a higher rate after the trade, and he allowed fewer balls in play, too. He might be a very different pitcher if the Angels do nothing other than tell him to maintain his post-trade pitch mix.

The Angels went 63-99 and were outscored by 160 runs in 2024, so it’s going to take a lot more than adding Kikuchi (who, replacing Canning, might be worth two to three more wins by himself) and Jorge Soler (acquired for Canning, and who might be a two-win upgrade if they just DH him) to make them a .500 club. A healthy Mike Trout would do more good than either of these moves, although that’s obviously beyond their control.

If the intention is to contend, however, they need to do a lot more — sign another starter or preferably two, and add some more offense basically anywhere but catcher, shortstop, or left field. There is no reason on earth for the Angels to skip the Juan Soto sweepstakes, even if no one believes he’ll sign there. They should be in heavy on Max Fried and Jack Flaherty at the very least. Otherwise, the three-year deal for Kikuchi makes the team a marginally better contender for fourth place.
~ Keith Law