If you need a recap of the ground rules, look here. The bottom line is I have $32 million to spend before non-tendering some guys, a pretty shallow farm system, and plenty of holes at the MLB level.
My goal is to get more versatile, better defensively, improve the pitching staff, and get younger where I can. I need to raise the floor, but also take some gambles if this team is going to be noteworthy. In the likely event that this team doesn’t make it to October, I want to have plenty of trade chips and youngsters in AAA who are ready for a taste of MLB life down the stretch.
First, let’s start with some house cleaning:
Non-tender: Patrick Sandoval, Mickey Moniak, Matt Thaiss, and Brock Burke saving $11.15 million.
The decision on Sandoval boils down to the fact he won’t pitch in 2025 and he hasn’t been all that great while he’s been here. If he’s on an innings limit in 2026, I’m likely paying about $14 million for half a season of mediocre pitching and that is bad math. Moniak gets upgraded later and Burke is welcome back on a minors deal. Normally I might keep him but every penny counts this off season.
Trade Taylor Ward to Toronto for Addison Barger
Barger is a multiple position player with ample experience at shortstop, third base, and in the outfield corners. He’ll be 25 when the season starts and just got his first taste of MLB action where he predictably struggled. Across three season in AAA he slashed .259/.372/.440. It is important to note his AAA time was spent in the International League where numbers are closer to normal than the launching pads in the Pacific Coast League. Barger is basically an all in one bench player with clear path to the third base job. Good teams have versatile players and we get one here. I also save $7.95 million by replacing Ward with a minimum wage player.
So now I have a grand total of $51,100,000 to try and salvage this team.
Sign Walker Buehler 1 Year $15 million
I have to take a chance on upside and there’s none better than Walker Buehler. He had a tough go of it coming back from his second Tommy John surgery last year but it is the second year back when the improvement usually shows. In the playoffs his fastball velocity was back but his command was still off a bit. I’m betting a regular off season program can bring him back to something close to his former self. Not a Cy Young candidate, but more upside than our current options offer.
Sign Shinnosuke Ogasawara 2 Years $12 million ($6 million AAV paid $5 million in 2025 and $7 million in 2026)
I love control pitchers and soft contact. Over his career Ogasawara has been excellent at limiting walks. His strikeout rate is lower than most guys who move to MLB, but he seems to have the art of pitching down, mixing speed and location to keep hitters off balance. This is a gamble, but for the same price I’d pay Sandoval to sit at home, I’m taking the Japanese hurler.
Sign Tanner Scott 3 Years $36 million ($10 million in 2025, $13 million 2026 and 2027))
Are the Angels a closer away from contention? No. Could a bullpen anchored by Tanner Scott, Ben Joyce, and a healthy Robert Stephenson be pretty good? Yes. If the starting rotation happens to be good enough to get some leads, I want to close them. And with a young-ish team I’d like to have those guys see some success. Signing Scott basically replaces Carlos Esteves with a younger arm.
Sign AJ Minter 2 Years $16 Million ($7 million in 2025, $9 million in 2026)
Again a bit of a gamble but on a guy who has been a lethal left handed reliever over the course of his career. Adding him to the bullpen mix above creates a lot more depth. And, paired with Jose Quijada gives me multiple fireballing lefties with late inning experience.
Sign Harrison Bader 1 year $8 million
Ok, so this might not seem like a huge jump up from Moniak but it is larger than you’d realize. Against righties Bader carries a .239/.302/.367 career slash line with a BABIP of an even .300, all of which are better than Moniak. Last year he slashed .236/.284/.373 against righties which was slightly better than Moniak. Bader strikes out quite a bit less than Moniak, brings a great glove, and gives us a guy who can keep Trout in left field and DH.
On most days I have essentially three center fielders patrolling the grass with Trout in left, Bader in center, and Adell in right. Barger can cover either corner to give Trout DH days or let Trout cover center field against a lefty. Nearly as importantly, this keeps Soler off the grass and gives the Angels more consistency than Moniak provides.
Sign Travis d’Arnaud 1 year $4 million.
The OC native was just cut loose after Atlanta declined an $8 million option on him. At 35 years old he’s no longer an everyday starter. But his bat still plays and we all saw Logan O’Hoppe wear down the second half of last season. Travis starts 60ish games at catcher and is a potent bench bat as he crushes lefties. Plus he’s a great mentor for O’Hoppe, who hasn’t paired with a solid MLB catcher at this level.
Sign Yoan Moncada 1 year $3 million
Another player on a bounce back contract, Moncada is only 29 years old, plays multiple positions, and has a career wRC+ of 107. If he bounces back at all, he’s a valuable player. If not, he’s a cheap buy who isn’t blocking anybody. Ideally I’d like to keep Barger as a Swiss army knife rather than park him at third base, so having Moncada and Rengifo both available really solidifies infield depth if, and that is a big if, Moncada stays healthy.
Final Result:
I have a solid lineup from top to bottom and the ability to mix and match against righty and lefty pitchers. I’ve improved the outfield defense, added big upside to the rotation, added two hammers to the bullpen, and improved the bench. Also, if this team does not look like a playoff contender I have Buehler, Tyler Anderson, Luis Rengifo, Bader, d’Arnaud, and Moncada as trade chips at the deadline.
Lineup vs. righties would look something like: Schanuel (1B), Rengifo (2B), Trout (LF), Soler (DH), O’Hoppe (C), Adell (RF), Neto (SS), Rendon/Moncada (3B), Bader (CF)
Lineup vs. lefties: Rengifo (2B), Trout (CF), Soler (DH), d’Araud (C), Adell (RF), Barger (LF), Schanuel (1B), Rendon/Moncada (3B), Neto (SS).
Rotation is Buehler, Soriano, Anderson, Ogasawara, Kochanowicz with the out of options Jose Suarez penciled in as the long reliever/spot starter
Bullpen is Scott, Minter, Joyce, Stephenson, Quijada, Sam Aldegheri and a competition for the last two spots.
The bench features two versatile players in Moncada and Barger, plus the thump of d’Arnaud. There’s room for one more spot, too, so we’ll have a camp battle in Tempe for the final spot.
It isn’t hard to see this team playing well enough to be in the Wild Card mix. Nor is it hard to see me with a bundle of trade chips at the deadline. Either way, I come out ahead while letting the young guys grow.
Speaking of letting our young guys grow, our AAA team would have Matthew Lugo and Jordyn Adams on the grass, Christian Moore, Scott Kingery, and Cole Fontenelle on the dirt, and a rotation featuring Reid Detmers, Chase Silseth, Davis Daniel, George Klassen, and Sam Bachman. Plus the power bats of Nico Kavadas and Ryan Noda. It isn’t hard to see any of those guys taking a leap forward and seizing an MLB spot.
It is always tough being first, but tell me how you think I did and whether this team would give you a little hopium come March.
I really like the pitching decisions here. Particularly Tanner Scott and the flyer on Walker Buehler.
Not to pick a nat but, was $51.1 million a hard number in this exercise? I believe your 2025 moves add up to $52/million.
I might’ve messed up a little.
If you were perry you would keep jose suarez? That’s already admitting you’re tanking before the season even starts.
Great discussions today. Very stimulating and enjoyable. Terrific inputs by the community.
Nice article Jeff.
Thanks.
IIWPM: I’d have my d@mn Corvette and work right next to the 57.
I like the transactions you are suggesting as GM. I differ on Buehler, if Dodgers don’t want to retain him they know something is up, and I wouldn’t want to sign him and find out. If we are in the ‘broken arms’ market I would risk it on Shane Bieber. Or how about Kikuchi, how much of the lost Asian fanfare could we get back having Ogasawara and Kikuchi in the rotation. That would be fun.
FWIW, mlbtradrumors had Moncada at $13.5 mil, not 3 mil. I think 13.5 is far too much but
I whiffed on that one. My mistake.
Yeah…. I was like “We can do that. Damn, let’s do that….” But no. Es mucho dineros and stuff…..
Awesome piece, JJ!
Truthfully, I had not heard the name Addison Barger before reading it here. I’d think we can get a bit more value for 2 years of Ward.
Philosophically against spending big money on relievers. Wash and Barry had the pen humming along with Joyce and a bunch of randos, so $20 million a year on Scott + Minter (any RP really) is a no from me.
Would love Moncada at that price.
Yeah. The Barger idea was a good pull. I’m just not sure the Jays would actually move him, but that’s not something we have to worry about as we play Perry. I had thought about trying to get Barger by taking on Bassitt’s contract in trade earlier before I realized how screwed our payroll pooch is.
Blue Jays might not. They are in win now mode and Barger is a bit of a man without a home.
Toronto seems like a house of cards and Guerrero was reportedly shopped around late 2024.
Nice job. Way more thought dedicated on this than I would have. I’m still not a believer that they will make good decisions but here’s hoping.
Thanks.
Hard to think an organization run this horribly for so long will suddenly make better decisions, but I do like what Perry has done on the trade front.
Agreed on the trade front. I do think that Joyce is a ticking injury bomb and would at least dangle him as a trade to see what’s out there.
That’s a good call, I’m all for it. His shelf life is limited.
I keep thinking that Perry would be a much better GM in a real organization.
Great effort as usual. This sort of reminds me of the 23 team which won 73 games. The problem is just that there are too many holes and not enough money. If they’re not going to spend enough to make the team decent, I would like to see them trade Ward, Rengifo, and Joyce, and shoot for 2027. To be a legitimate WC contender they need 2 more 120 OPS+ bats, and 2 starting pitchers which would probably cost 70-80M.
I’d keep Joyce, but Ward, Rengifo, and even Tyler Anderson could bring back some prospects for sure.
Joyce’s trade value will never be higher and it’s likely he won’t be healthy in 2 years when they want to compete. That’s just my thinking.
I can definitely see that logic.
But I greatly appreciate your effort to try and do the impossible. Really good thinking. As you said, you’re first so everyone else get’s to throw rocks.
Trading Joyce now is some galaxy brain logic, and I don’t hate it.
I still want to try him as a starter, even if it means his arm blows up in 2 years.
His arm will blow up in 2 starts. He’s a sprinter, not a distance guy.
you are not wrong haha
Yep. Gotta love an idiot that’s down on Arte for saying we’ll compete and then starts huffing about making moves to be competitive in 2025. Clearly there is neither the money nor the available FAs to really make us a sure thing competitor this year. We gotta just try and take two steps forward in 25. As fans, we should not be looking for “How does this make us a winner?”. More like “how does this make us a winner in 2026-27?”.
Jeff. Great effort and you did your homework. Thank you for taking the time to do this rather than selling real estate. 😃
A couple comments:
I am not sure Buehler signs a 1 year deal but that’s splitting hairs. And if he does so I doubt it will be with the Angels.
The Ward deal is at best a wash and really only saves salary. Arguably you are sacrificing WAR for dollars here. Ward posted a 2.6 WAR season last year, Addison a 0.4 WAR season.
I don’t think the starting pitching is significantly upgraded although I agree that bullpen would rock!
From a WAR analysis this doesn’t add much to the ‘24 season. Maybe a couple more but not significantly. And again there are the Trout and Rendon health issues that are just a dark cloud over any real potential.
I think this hypothetical team wins 67-71 games. An improvement, maybe, but PLAYOFFS?! No way.
Your excellent efforts underscore how difficult it will be to move the needle without more budget.
Thanks.
The only real way to get a huge WAR boost is to have Trout produce at a 6-7 WAR clip by rotating through the OF and DH. I expect absolutely nothing from Rendon.
As always the problem is depth. Barger and perhaps Moncada mitigate that a bit but there’s simply no replacing most regulars. That’s when I switch to being a seller.
The WAR problem is real. Even if Trout produced to that clip (and we absolutely cannot expect or base any reality based predictions on that except the most optimistic) the team probably only wins around 70 games. Heck, they won only 73 games two years in a row with Ohtani producing 10+ WAR.
That is why this team needs to rebuild unless Arte suddenly finds generosity and his wallet. There is no way to quickly improve enough to be relevant. So build up the farm and make trades to support the youth movement.
Just looking at the number of players who were below average offensively last year is telling. Far more than not. And let’s not pretend that was because we had stud defenders all over the field.
The WAR gulf between us and the big boys is simply massive.
I’m all for the youth movement and rebuild. Hence not signing anybody for more than 2 years and hopefully giving myself plenty of trade chips to accelerate it.
Riffing on this:
With such a huge chasm, no real farm and a tight budget, unless lightening strikes this team is going nowhere fast. And that is regardless of what Perry does or doesn’t do. I see no path that leads to immediate success without (1) a huge outlay of money and (2) top free agents wanting to play in Anaheim. I seriously doubt either will occur.
As a result, it’s time for a dismantling which is what my IIWPM will be about. Target 2027 when the Rendon contract is over. In the meantime do nothing but build up the Farm and hopefully draft well.
Yeah, those are your only two choices.
Unless you look on Baseball Trade Values, etc you don’t really see how truly financially buggered the Angels are…. by TROUT’s contract. Rendon’s is Yugo bad. Trout’s, as it stands now, is ten year old Maserati bad.
Trout’s contract is a massive impediment to improving the team. As Angels fans we’ve seen at least one albatross contract on the books for about 15 straight years now and several with two or more.
Yah. I was focused on how big a bummer Rendon’s contract is…. but Trout’s? My god, we don’t have the horses to trade guys away to get someone to take that thing off our hands as it stands now.
Our only hope truly is to have him AT LEAST become a very expensive JD Martinez.
10 year old Maserati that has not been properly maintained bad
Interesting stuff. Is Sandoval eligible to be non-tendered given his injury status? If so, he is a clear non-tender.
I like Buehler at 2 years for twice the money. As posted elsewhere, I also like Shane Bieber at 2 years, $24 million. That gives you a solid 2026 pitching staff if both are healthy and back to decent form.
I’d rather keep Ward. Don’t really need Bader, nor Bader.
Scott is interesting — but the Halos got burned last year on a late inning reliever. And isn’t Joyce going to be the closer? You don’t seem to think so, but it seems they are heading that way. There are likely cheaper options like Treinen and a few others if we are looking at set-up guys.
Good call on Sandoval. I did not look into that.
Joyce looks great but has a long history of arm troubles. Bottom line is you can’t have too many bullpen studs and bullpen studs are always options to trade down the road if you need to.
It isn’t that hard to see any of the guys in the rotation going 5-6 decent innings and giving the team a chance to win and it isn’t like this offense will set the world on fire.
I just didn’t see a way to revamp the entire offense so I went with a path to hopefully keep Trout healthy and add some quality bench/rotation bats and keep Rengifo in the lineup.
“Hopefully keep Trout healthy” – that is very unrealistic unfortunately.