What A Realistic Taylor Ward Trade Might Net

Taylor Ward is one of my favorite Angels. He has Central Valley connections, he’s a really good player, and he was great when meeting my son. He’s also a really good baseball player who is under contract for two seasons after this one so he has a pretty nice trade value.

The Angels don’t appear to have any path to winning baseball over the next two plus seasons. And by the time the Angels might realistically be good again, Ward will be at least 32 years old and entering his decline. So as much as it would hurt to see him go, trading him now is the best option for the Angels franchise.

But what would the return be? Pretty decent, it turns out. Yes, Ward is on the older side for an arbitration eligible player and his base salary will be about ten times league minimum next year, but that is still vastly less expensive than a comparable free agent and opens up the trade possibilities to pretty much everyone.

Here are a few trade pieces I’ve seen on the simulator that reflect an approximate fair value return for Ward. Keep in mind I’m targeting return pieces that are at a minimum of High A as I don’t trust the Angels to actually develop lottery tickets with higher ceilings.

Juan Brito is a 22 year old prospect currently in AAA. While he’s technically capable of manning any infield position there are questions about his glove at short and arm at third. Most likely he’s a second baseman moving forward, but a switch hitting one with a good command of the strike zone and solid contact skills. Angel Martinez is getting his first tase of big league action at the age of 22 and primarily plays third base while occasionally DH’ing. Prior to his callup, he slashed a very solid .284/.398/.494 for Columbus in AAA. It is important to note the numbers International League are not inflated like in the Pacific Coast League.

These two would immediately become the #2 and #3 prospects in the Angels system and both are close to MLB ready.

Braxton Ashcraft has a 60 grade fastball and is already in AAA. His career has been slowed by injuries but he seems to be on the right path now. Losing 2020 to the pandemic then having TJ early in the 2021 season put him behind the developmental curve but Pittsburgh has taken a good path with him and he’s current 69 innings and 73 strikeouts into his first AAA foray. There’s some risk in this one but also potentially a huge reward.

That risk is offset quite a bit with the addition of Thomas Harrington, a guy who throws 4 pitches pretty well and is adding a 5th and has the floor of an MLB starter. He’s a pitcher, not a radar gun guy, but a solid athlete with a very repeatable delivery. Mitch Jebb has a typical utility infielder profile with versatility and a good glove but not enough bat to really stick.

Mick Abel has front of the rotation stuff. It just doesn’t always land in the strike zone. 11.1 K/9 is incredible. But this years 5.2 BB/9 needs improvement. Still, Abel would be our top prospect without any doubt and definitely has the potential to be the ace of the next contending Angels team. He’s only 22 years old and could join a college heavy draft class in AA and hopefully be ready to rock in two years.

Rafael Marchan is a good hitting catcher who is already getting MLB playing time. Philly would probably prefer to swap him out with another prospect but they do have both JR Realmuto and Garrett Stubbs under contract for a few more years so if we can snag him to replace Thaiss, that would be a nice upgrade offensively. If not, perhaps a lower ceiling, pretty developed prospect like Bryan Rincon or Gabriel Rincones Jr. would be the added piece.

So, in short, any trade of Ward should net us a couple of near MLB ready pieces with upside at positions of need. These returns plus whoever we draft at #8 will assuredly become our top overall prospects. Of course, the simulator is just a tool so a similar return is possible from a number of teams.

Of these three (none of which I created) I think I’d take the Pirates package. I like the upside play with the safer bet thrown in and figure the Angels will go big on college bats in the draft. Ashcraft, Caden Dana, and Harrington in the Trash Pandas rotation would certainly make me feel like the team had a path towards contention again.