As Gitch sent out a call to all of us to sit at our desk and contemplate what a tear down would look like, I started racking my brain thinking how hard could that be? I mean we are trading away a once in a lifetime player, we should get rich with players right? Boy was I wrong….
My thought process here isn’t to use Ohtani to get players back. Instead, I used him to unload Rendon, and see what we can get back in return, while also reducing our payroll.
Now I also took under conisderation to try and keep Trout. I didn’t do this to make his life miserable, rather to have something for the fans to see each day and have some market value for our tv deal for the new owners.
When all of this is done, you’ll see the team look very different, but I feel still better than Oakland, but not by much.
For arb salaries I used MLBTRADERUMORS.com and for trades I put each of them into baseballtradevalues.com
Here is the breakdown of what the new 2023 Angels (under $100M payroll) looks like:
First let’s start with the trades:
The first is my hardest to quantify, but it works in the simulation, and does help both teams:
Angels Get: Patrick Corbin (24M+35M) and Josiah Grey (Pre-Arb) $720K
Nationals Get: Rendon (38M*4years) + Ohtani (30M)
The Angels save 44 million this year, 3 million next year on just the Rendon contract, and rid themselves of one of the worst contracts in baseball.
The Nationals get the new ower and the best player in the game. They can decide to keep Ohtani, and they have the payroll to do so.
Angels Get: Paul Dejong
Cardinals Get: Luis Rengifo, Max Stassi
The Angels land a capable SS now who is 29 and earning 8.5M. The Card’s just lost Yadi and get a capable vet catcher, plus a great asset in Rengifo for an arb salary of 2.4M. The Angels save here, and end up resigning Wallach for the backup duty at $800K and giving the everyday job to O’Hoppe.
Angels get: Kenta Maeda (tommy john@$3M) and Aaron Sabato. (Minor leaguer 1B and Twins # 26 prospect
Twins get: Aaron Loup and Ryan Tepera plus $3.5M in cash.
The Twins roll the dice on Loup and Tepera finding themselves again at a reasonable price of $5.5M each. The Angels would get nothing from Maeda early in the season, with a chance he could pitch again late summer. Possible non-tender by the Halo’s if he doesn’t recover at all
Angels get: Luis Patino Pre Arb-720k, coming off multiple injuries last year
Rays get: Jared Walsh plus $750K
Rays are looking to move on from Ji-Man Choi and we continue the trAdition of sending a 1B to the Rays, and then they improve. The cost saving Rays can take a chance on Walsh for under $2M and hope for a rebound. Patino for the Angels is a bit of a wildcard here. He is a good pitcher when healthy and this could be a great guy to keep the 6 man rotation that seems to be working.
Free agent signing: Yes, we get one and one only. Re-sign Matt Duffy for 1-year 1.2M
Here is what the Angels team/lineup/ and pitching staff looks like plus their salary for 2023:
Mike Trout DH 37.116666
Paul Dejong SS 8.5
David Fletcher 2B/3B 6
Matt Duffy 1B 1.2
Logan O’Hoppe 720K
Jo Adell LF 720K
Mickey Moniak CF 720K
Jordyn Adams RF 720K
Livan Soto 3B/2B 720K
Andrew Velazquez INF 720K
Orlando Martinez OF 720K
Chad Wallach C 800K
Michael Stefanic INF 720K
Patrick Corbin 24M
Patrick Sandoval 2.8M
Kenta Maeda(IL) 3.125M
Reid Detmers 720K
Josiah Grey 720K
Luis Patino 720K
Jose Suarez 720K
Chris Rodriguez 720K
Andrew Wantz 720K
Jose Quijada 720K
Andrew Wantz 720K
Zack Weiss 720K
Rob Zastryzny 720K
With a spot open for Maeda on IL
Total payroll: 99.281M
We made it, but we still suck.
The pitching actually is very deep here, but our pen is lacking for sure. We have very little hitting here, and that is where the new owner would need to be looking at FA for 24′ and 25′ while our young core is still cheap.
This was fun, but sad at the same time. Don’t roast me too hard guys, this is really hard!!!
Photo credit: Rex Fregosi
Definitely tough to get to $100 million or less without sucking. Adding Ohtani to Rendon is the only way to get close to getting it done.
I don’t understand the focus on freeing up salary. So, what, we can roll the dice on another albatross of a contract? I’d rather have a high payroll and a bunch of prospect capital than a low payroll and a crap minor league system.
Have we learned nothing from our last how many free agent contracts?
They are just turning the Etch-a-Sketch upside down and giving it a shake. The Masthead people will be using a budget that is more status quo.
Other people can start on the assumption that some billionaire will authorize a budget of $250 Million. Why not? We’re just fantasizing here.
You aren’t really understanding the entire thought experiment are you? Including the term thought experiment.
Uhhh, this wasn’t your brightest post. What I’m saying is–in line with the thought experiment of what a “tear down” of the franchise would look like–is that we should be trading off our big names without any focus on reducing payroll. Get the most you can from the big names, deal with the high payroll during the interim, and hope all the new prospects pan out.
Why limit any prospect capital just to make the balance sheet pretty? The prospective value of new stars (to an assumed new owner) should be more lucrative than potential savings in the short term anyway.
Yes. Accept no one asked you what you would prefer to do. We are asking what you would do if you had to get the payroll down to 100M. You are basically giving the same answer to a question no one asked you.
As long as that’s what we’re doing I’d like to extend Ohtani and have a 350M payroll and spend more on Ops/The Farm. That would be the most fun for me.
Maybe these guys in a trade to get rid of that stupid FA agent white elephant signing back in December 2019. Yes another Wil Wilson kind of deal because you sign Ren Done and yet nix Joc Pederson and Alex Wood…….nice job can’t wait till it’s all over.
Dude, not kidding, that’s not enough right now.
Rawss Strypleeng sorry abawt that.
This was a clean thread, stop.
have you forgawt abawt rendohn?
nobody’s gonna pay for that $30+ M train wreck so we’re gonna have to cover at least $20M of it, even though he wouldn’t be playing for us anymore. Now you go smile with him and sucker punch Jesse Winker at Mutt Lynch’s in Newport Beach where all those tough guys go to eat a broken glass and nails Mission size burrito.
💪 💪 💪
For those of you who don’t enjoy this exercise- view it this way.
The Angels CANNOT just let Ohtani walk in free agency after this season. They MUST either trade or extend him. If they are not going to extend him, they need to trade him on the short term as his trade value decreases the closer he gets to free agency.
This series is showing the trade side of that decision. So it’s a view into one of two options – extend or trade.
If you read the articles that way I think many will find them more informative than threatening.
I think the framing is a bit off: that Ohtani likely needs to be dealt if we are to get something in return is obvious enough. But how realistic is it to pare the payroll significantly without doing long term damage? Perhaps a slightly different criteria might be useful? How far can you lower the payroll without trading away players making less than X dollars while improving the team in some way? I think what riles people is, even more than trading Ohtani, the idea of trading young cost controlled players just to get rid of the likes of Rendon without getting long term pieces back. (I don’t mean your suggestion wrt the Tigers, which is a nice future-oriented approach–I just don’t think Detroit would bite without more young talent going their way).
Yeah, accept the question was HOW WOULD YOU GET THE PAYROLL DOWN TO UNDER 100M IF YOU HAVE TO KEEP TROUT OR RENDON?
It’s just a “what would you do”? question. I don’t give two shits about the feelings regarding the question. I didn’t ask about improving the team. I don’t even care about long term damage. This isn’t “what would you do to improve the team?”. It is looking at, if the team did, for what ever reason, decide to strip down to a low payroll, how would you do it?
That’s all. That’s it. It’s just not that complicated. If people can’t get their heads around that and have feelings about it that’s their vapors and I guess their answer is along the lines of “my brain can’t take, I can’t do it, my PTSD is throbbing” or what ever.
Basically giving a bunch of answers to a question I didn’t ask.
Yep. It’s a challenge and the folks with torches seem ready to voice their extreme butt hurt when it’s just an exercise that reveals the challenges behind being a GM particularly of a high payroll team up for sale. It forces you to be dispassionate and use your noggin.
No wonder so many people are upset with the very idea. How dare you?! Most people just want to tear shit down and angrily express their disdain for even thinking about trading Ohtani. They got yelled at by their spouse today and now they have to read a fun thought exercise that likely includes trading Ohtani?! For Shame!
People, I guess, just want to comment without putting in any work or effort to have a meaningful opinion. Emotion! Anger! Ohtani!
This is why, if I was an actual GM, I’d be a trail blazer and just wear “F*** The Fans!” t-shirts all the time so they can stop wondering if I give a shit about their thinkings.
And, if I were an absolute ruler of the world I’d make people pass some sort of simple logic, math and grammar exam (or battle one on one to the death) before they are allowed to have food. Nearly perfect world in just 2 short years.
Unless you’re one of the dead people, or cared about one.
Nope. Dead people don’t care. And who cares about the people who care? But more importantly, do you think their’s someone out their awarding points for Moral Oral overly literal behavioral correction comments? Cause there isn’t. No one cares about the hall monitor either.
You argue that dead people don’t care, then say that you don’t care about the people who will care.
Am I starting to sense bipolar? (I’ve worked in the field for 30 years and am not sure if I can pick it up through text)
You calling me the hall monitor?
You also like to speak for everybody “nobody cares” although I obviously care.
Btw, I do enjoy your baseball takes. They are intelligent and well researched.
Lashing out at people who disagree with you, with name calling and memes, not so intelligent. I’m sure you can do better.
Nobody cares that you don’t care that I don’t care that you care. You’ve been in the mental health field for 30 years and you’re stumped by the fact that someone would tell you to f*** off when you try to play comment cop on the internet?
On top of that you can’t tell when someone’s also f***ing with you?
You complain that somebody name calls then you name call, say something rude then just say I’m f’ing with you, call people out for their takes but gets defensive when called out, good base ball insight but toxic.
When you call somebody out, you say you’re doing the site a favor. When you’re called out, you call me a name which is the refuge of low intelligence or an emotionally immature individual.
Because most of them sans Reid Detmers aren’t any good.
Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell were alleged to be the next Willy Mays and Mickey Mantle UNTILL THEY WERE’NT.,,,,,,,somehow we got to 7 straight losing seasons out of a vacuum. worst farm system in MLB since 2010.
But that’s exactly what’s gonna happen.
Looking back at the PR disaster with the Dodgers trading Mike Piazza 25yrs ago, the same thing would happen with us. Gary Sheffield did in fact put up the same numbers as Piazza, but that didn’t matter to Dodger fans. Everybody’s gonna say you’ll never get equal value for him (where’s Jose Mota when you need him, just like Mike Trout in 2018). I’m sure the guy who goes by a former Angel AS 2B and centerfielder will say that this all stupid. Idohnt kare!!! 😜 😜
Sadly either Trout or Ohtani must go for under $100M to happen.
I will let all you stat heads travel into the weeds figuring that out!!
I think the only point this exercise ultimately makes is that paring the payroll to 100 million from the status quo is basically impossible, without seriously depleting the roster–if at all realistic. If something like this does in fact happen, I shudder to even imagine how much young talent would need to be shipped off to make that happen. :/
Has a payroll ever been paired down without shedding a bunch a legitimate talent?
I think dumping as much talent–as in giving away cheap talent on top of sending away expensive contracts to just pare down payroll on this scale is unprecedented. Not even Bill Veeck went that far, I think. This is the kind of stuff where the commissioner would intervene in the old days
If the goal, without any other constraints, is simply to cut down the payroll, then the easy answer would be to package every prospect with Rendon et al and dangle them. Somebody will bite. Problem solved.
But we should like to believe that the exercise ought to have some grounding on reality. Like Trout and Rendon’s no contract clauses, how realistic it might be for the other team to bite, etc. If all we are doing is to come up with random trades on the simulator to get the payroll under $100 million, what would be the point and what is the challenge?
“I think dumping as much talent–as in giving away cheap talent on top of sending away expensive contracts to just pare down payroll on this scale is unprecedented”? I didn’t realize you had just started watching baseball.
And the fact that you get the merciless simulator to take the trade grounds it in reality… much more so than most of the ideas we see on here.
The only thing we are completely ignoring is Trout & Rendon’s no trade clause… which they would likely waive if the team ever really did this.
You lost me at “…[Trade] Ohtani…”
So you’ll be happier when he walks and the Angels get nada?
Happiest when (If) he’s extended.
The quest for a sub-$100M roster was the objective here? Ok, you did it! Some opinions from the ale factory:
Good work! Let’s go 2023.
You have a firm grasp of un-realty.
As to the article and the above, the Angels would keep Ward and Rengifo. That’s only about $5 million total. And if they made trades, they would do so for major prospects that would constitute an unbelievable haul. For example, they would call the Yankees who have Cole, might lose Judge and are dramatically hoping to compete. If the idea was the trade Ohtani and pair him with Rendon (a bad concept because you are seeing way low on Rendon), you would ask the Yankees for like six great prospects and maybe some draft picks or other considerations. Donaldson almost got booed out of the city so Rendon fits. Ohtani and Cole would be unbelievable. They could trade some of their other pieces elsewhere to recoup the awesome haul we get. There is a trade for you.
You can’t trade draft picks 99% of the time.
Angels Get: Paul Dejong
Cardinals Get: Luis Rengifo, Max Stassi”
Ok good I ws hoping someone could correct him. Thanks
Why so we want Dejong? We waited for Rengifo finally to show his talent only to trade him and Stassi for a guy who looks like he might have peaked already? I assume this is a money dump of Stassi. He might have been hurt this year. But why not keep Rengifo, trade Stassi with a minor league prospect, and get someone the Angels want. BTW with the current IFs plus possible minor leaguers coming up, the Angels have enough guys for all IF spots except for 1B. They need to focus on 1B/LF guys.
Because of the exercise we are trying to accomplish. Stassi has no trade value and is a hit on the budget, Rengifo has trade value, and can be used to bring in another player who can play SS. I focused on pairing down payroll, but trying to keep as much of our young pitching.
I would be very confused at one of my favorite players in pin stripes.
Not a very enjoyable series… basically “let’s propose ideas for a scenario where our team is totally ruined”. This season was hard enough… I think I might pass on reading any more of these.
That is just about my own choice of what I’d enjoy reading… it has no refection on the fact that the authors do a very good job at working within the parameters of this scenario and coming up with clever solutions. Well done.
Fully stated ….
“I think I might pass on reading any more of these.”
What the heck?
Pretty standoffish. It’s a “for fun” series but just go ahead and don’t read them. 🙄 Odd take IMHO (do I need to spell that out too?)
Sorry you were offended.
Looking back, I should have just said “Yikes, these are depressing outlooks” and stopped there.
I wrote it at work with a headache, which is always a dubious time to post on social media.
Don’t dump an O-Bomb on me bro
The team and Organization is already ‘ruined’. You’ve got 2 generational players and they SUCK and have sucked and will continue to suck. So the thought of a fun exercise with the goal of getting younger and more flexible ia actually fun – you’re just not seeing it. Hopefully new ownership would then improve the Organization and the team can be rebuilt.
The emotional connection with a player like Ohtani or Trout is understandable. But the team’s performance has been really mediocre and harkens back to the 70s. So this should be an exercise of change and hope as opposed to depression.
Here’s a simple way to look at this. Did you watch this team this year and think “man, we should burn it down”. Well, what does really burning it down really look like? Let’s see.
Sure, by all means. I hope some more people will post some more fanpost responses to add more to the exercise.
This makes me sad–not this specific post, but the whole idea and the necessary moving parts these posts illustrate. $100 million payroll requires 1) Ohtani has to be dealt–and that’s the easy part. 2) Either Rendon or Trout has to be dealt, and I think they both have full no trade clauses. Considering that Rendon is untradeable unless we add a lot of value or take on a couple of big and bad contracts (which would defeat the point of the exercise), the more logical choice would have to be trading Trout. :/
Not a response to this post, but just a mental exercise for my edification as much as anything. Basically, I’m trying to think what the other GM’s might be thinking if they are looking at our less prominent players who might need to be dealt in course of the “fire sale.”
1. Ward: one pretty good year as a starter, but kinda old (if you are a rebuilding team). Extremely valuable bench piece, but risky as a starter–but he’s still cheap.
2. Tepera/Loup: not such great results in 2022 and kinda expensive–but they didn’t actually pitch too badly and might be worth a taking chance on, IF the price is not too high.
3. Rengifo: I think he is actually one of most valuable trade pieces now–he did show plenty of upside in the minors, he is younger than Ward and he plays more defensively valuable positions (unless Ward goes back behind the plate.) But, for these very reasons, why would you trade him unless someone put a gun to your head?
4. Fletcher: kinda expensive and seemingly injury prone. Worth a risk only if the price is low and/or there’s good evidence that he’ll mostly stay in one piece.
5. Stasi: I’m not sure he is trade able, except for a bag of peanuts. He couldn’t do much of anything last year–including staying healthy–and he’s expensive now.
Why would you trade Trout? He would bring little in return due to the high contract. And he at least will play in Anaheim after 2023. Ohtani is all but out the door in my opinion. His brand will soar on a winning/playoff team and he’s a businessman whose not getting any younger.
I understand you are being creative — but you might as well disband the franchise. Unloading Ohtani just to unload Rendon while taking back a terrible contract is a no thank you concept. Losing Ward too is awful. Trading Rengifo then doesn’t help.
Is the idea to become the Pittsburgh Pirates? And when you do a fire sale, typically you get all of these great prospects. You didn’t do that either.
I don’t get the point. You are better off keeping many of these pieces. Maybe the next iteration will improve.
No my goal was to get the team in a position to contend in a year when new ownership increased budget to their liking, and gave them the flexbility to bring in their guys. I focused more on keeping a pitching core to build around, and would have the new front office focus on hitters in FA and future trades.
Noted. What’s the pitching core though? Angels have one high quality pitcher — Ohtani. They have Sandoval who looks like a keeper but cannot be totally counted on. Detmers hopefully will continue to improve but it’s unclear. Suarez is maybe an ok starter. Maybe.
Corbin is lousy and way overpaid. I don’t know the two younger guys you have added but they better be studs or else it’s a big problem. Maeta doesn’t help now. Especially for a team shedding dollars.
Look up stats for Patino and Grey. Both are in the same caregory as Detmers. Yes we don’t have an established “ace” but our depth day in and day out would keep us in ball games as I feel we have at least 5 starters that are at least a #3 on all staffs.
Solid effort, man. These take a lot of work and I appreciate your contribution! 😀
Good job – thanks for the work on this!
Thanks. This is the time of the year I like the most. I kinda wish I would have pursued a career in this field
I haven’t read the comments yet but when I proofed my atricle I see that I messed up that first trade. The Nationals should also be getting Taylor Ward.
So its Ward, Ohtani and Rendon.
My guess is it would take $10M in the last two years of Rendon contract to possibly make this work.
On paper it’s more about trading Gray for Ward, with a year of Ohtani to get butts in the seats for new ownership. It’s doubtful they are able to resign Ohtani, but they get a fan favorite in Rendon back in town. The extra $10M in Rendon’s last two years sort of become an extention of the horrible Corbin contract.
Now with that info, please send me your thoughts.
Nice work and creative. I don’t think the Nationals would do it bc they get stuck with Rendon and Ohtani leaves. It’s a 1 year rental for a team that is not in contention.
Rendon has a trade value of MINUS 130.
Very interesting read.
I know, it’s the hardest to justify, but also see my note, they get Ward for multiple years at a very cheap rate.
The other busniess side of things is a new owner coming in, get’s the chance to negotiate with Ohtani first, and you would have a ton of people at the ballpark now that the NL has a DH and Ohtani will pitch for you. It’s an instant shot in the arm for revenue to a new owner. They also get to possibly flip him again at the deadline if you can’t extend andding even more depth for an almost no cost, and you are dumping another horrible contract with Corbin.
So your trade would be
Ohtani for half a season
Prospects from Ohtani trade at mid-season
More sales in ticket revenue, especailly when he pitches
Ward controlled for 4 more years at Arb level.
Corbin’s last year of his deal is actually more money than Rendon’s contract
($40M vs. $38.5M)
While it’s a slight hope, I don’t see this trade as an absolute no.
Yah. Realistic trades involving Ohtani or Rendon that involve us getting what we want are thin on the ground.
I know, like you mentioned earlier it’s a bold move. The Nationals know Rendon and it’s a bit of a homecoming for the fans. I also metnioned my other reasons above, but don’t get me wrong, it would be a HARD SELL.
Angels don’t really get much here.
They lose Ward, Ohtani and gain Gray with no propects coming and or no QO for Ohtani, but they shed a contract and still have to pay $20M for it to go away.
Trading Ohtani to get Rendon off the books!?! BOLD MOVE COTTON!
It’s a friggin buttload of work just getting all the salary figures for all the scrubs you’re keeping isn’t it?
It’s also depressing how much less valuable Ohtani is now that he costs a ton. I actually think that we could get a little more than the sims say for him because there will be some competing demand, but not much, and it want be the dream unicorn pile of established you players some think we can get.
I also think the sims are a bit merciless when it comes to dumping players like Stassi, Loup and Tepera. I think that a team that really needs a catcher, for example, will trade for Stassi. They may just give us a meh prospect for him, but they won’t demand Rengifo in order to make the trade the way the sim will.
I haven’t even gotten to the numbers crunching faze of my attempt yet…. ung.
What was your plan, other than getting under 100M? Like, how long do you plan to take to rebuild a contender and how do you want to do it? Was keeping some value like Sandoval and Ward (where’s TAY TAY?) part of the plan since they will get expensive soonish?
So much brain needed to fertilize the Big A with poop.
We lose Ward, please see the post above on that one. I find it easier to trade and sign for position players, so once we are back to opening the payroll, we hit the market again.
This team is pitching rich as well right now with 6 viable arms, and a lot of depth still in the minors. We are starting a AAAA plus Trout team in the field though, so our draft, FA, and future trades should be focued on making the field better.
This team is also hoping for Adell, Adams, Soto, O’Hoppe, and Neto (2024) to be plug and play moving forward. Then this team needs and OF, 1B and 3B option in the future.
Ohtani and Will Wilson will be connected in infamy!!!!
Thanks for the hard work on this thought exercise.
It was fun. I hope more of us find time to rethink strategy and really get an indepth look at how we are building this team.
What Perry has done well is beginning to stockpile arms for us, and slowing leading us into some financial freedom with FA signings.
Thanks for giving us a place to share our thoughts
Quick pass the trash can, I’m going to barf!