INTRODUCTION AND TRADE VALUE
Okay I’ll be your huckleberry. Gitcho suggested a game wherein fantasy Perry is tasked with getting the payroll down to around $100 million while still maintaining a viable product on the field. Further parameters were that Trout and Rendon remain on the team – which is a given as their trade value per the Baseball Trade Values Trade Simulator is either low (Trout is at 14 – that is what happens to even superstars when a player costs a LOT of money) and Rendon is at a spectacular -132.3 (yes that is MINUS 132.3). To put that in perspective, Ohtani has a trade value of 52 on the simulator so you would pretty much have to give a team Ohtani, Trout and a bunch of other value to get them to take Rendon. That is not going to happen.
For all of you screaming about how much more valuable Ohtani is than the Trade Simulator says and how much another team would give for him, the reality is is that money and team control affects the analysis. Last year his value was near 100 on the trade simulator. But $30 million later and only one year of control and his value has been cut in half. The key word in “trade value” is the second one – i.e. “value”. Teams do not want to take on mammoth contracts in return for cheap and controlled talent. They also do not want to give up a bunch of talent for a one year rental. So, the Trade Simulator generally gets it right. And that simulator says that Trout and Rendon are, for all intents and purposes, untradable.
ANGELS 2023 PAYROLL
Per Spotrac, the Angels 2023 total projected payroll is $156 million. That includes Rendon ($38,571,428), Trout ($37,116,666), Ohtani ($30,000,000), Loup ($7,500,000), Stassi ($7,000,000), Tepera ($7 million), Fletcher ($6,000,000) and all of the expected raises to arbitration eligible players such as Ward, Sandoval, Walsh, Rengifo and Canning. So, that is the number I am using for this game – $156 million and I need to get it down as close as I can to $100 million. So, I have to cut somewhere around $50 million in payroll while still putting a decent product on the field.
There is only one way to approach this game. It is an entry point – like moving the pawn at the beginning of a chess match. Ohtani has to be traded. He is the only expensive player with trade value (since Trout and Rendon are realistically not tradable). So, as the virtual Perry, I swallow deeply and realize (1) I have to trade Ohtani and (2) it is okay because he is very unlikely to sign a deal after 2023 with the Angels. He is likely gone, so I am going to do my best to get a team to overpay a bit for a season of Ohtani.
I know this will be a blow to Angel fans and I know that there will be quite a bit of frustration and anger on chat boards and social media. Oh well – I, as virtual Perry, serve at the pleasure of the owner who has demanded payroll come down to make the team more marketable. So, I am abiding those orders and doing the best I can.
Identifying the right team for that trade took a bit of thought, but I ultimately landed on the Padres. They are a Westcoast team so they have a chance to sign Ohtani to a longer term deal. They have entered a timeframe from a personnel perspective where they could win a World Series. They are stinging a bit from the loss to the Phillies and, with Ohtani, have a legitimate chance to win a World Series. This is the kind of team that might overpay a bit to get Ohtani – particularly as it would be a middle finger to the hated Dodgers. Additionally, they are deep at a position (shortstop) which is a key weakness for the Angels.
So, with that as an introduction, here is my plan as virtual GM and my thought process behind each trade. Each of these trades were made using the Baseball Trade Values Trade Simulator.
TRADE #1- BYE BYE OHTANI-SAN
In my first trade, the Padres receive Ohtani (52 trade value). The Angels receive Cronenworth (SS – 59.1 trade value), Lesko (RHP – 15 trade value) and Zavala (OF – 7.8 trade value).
Its an overpay by the Padres but I think they do it for a couple of reasons. First, Ohtani makes them World Series favorites. Second, Tatis Jr. will be returning after the first month of the season making Cronenworth a bit unnecessary (the Padres actually have a couple other young shortstops who could back up Tatis Jr.). The Lesko and Zavala pieces are prospects who would have more value to the Angels than to the Padres. Zavala is 18 years old and can play all three outfield positions. Lesko was the 2022 first round selection by the Padres at pick #15.
This trade alone cuts $30 million of payroll (Ohtani) and adds only Cronenworth’s major league minimum salary. Cronenworth is not arbitration eligible until after the 2023 season so he is team controlled for quite some time. He is a stud (4.1 WAR in 2022 and 10.6 WAR over 2.5 seasons). He solves the shortstop problem for quite some time – long enough for Neto to continue to develop at shortstop.
TRADE #2 – PLAYING WITH TIGERS
I have my marching orders and that includes getting rid of Loup ($7.5 million), Tepera ($7 million) and Stassi ($7 million) if I want to come close to succeeding. The problem is that Loup has a -4.8 trade value, Stassi has a -7.8 trade value and Tepera has a 0 trade value. So, how do I get a team to bite on taking these players?
The answer is more pain, but acceptable pain under the circumstances. Ward in my opinion has had a career season which increased his trade value to 36.6 – higher than he is likely worth so I view this as an opportunity as I will also save his post-arb salary which is likely to be in the $2 million range. He is also 28 years old. Suarez has a trade value of 16.6. I hate to get rid of him but he is is necessary to get the Tigers to bite.
So, the trade is Loup, Tepera, Stassi, Ward and Suarez to the Tigers in exchange for Kerry Carpenter (right field – 25 years old – major league ready), Matt Manning (starting right hand pitcher – 24 years old – 1st round pick in 2016 – 6’6″ tall – was 2-3 in 2022 with a .8 WAR in 12 games) and Casey Mize (starting right hand pitcher – 25 years old).
All three players coming to the Angels are earning the major league minimum and are not eligible for arbitration until at least 2024. Carpenter has the ability to become the starting right fielder for the Angels – in 31 games in 2022 he had 6 HRs and 10 RBIs in his first MLB stint. Manning and Mize could easily slide into the rotation replacing, at least, Suarez. Both have tremendous upside.
This trade erases $21.5 million from the Angels payroll replacing it with major-league minimum players. Its net effect is -$21 million if you factor in the arbitration raise to Ward.
This situation has been tough on the virtual GM. A generational player (Ohtani) has been traded and some youngish talent has been traded (Ward and Suarez). However, the net effect has been reducing payroll by $51 million and solving the shortstop problem with Cronenworth who is a stud under team control for a long time and not arbitration eligible until after 2023 (team will be long sold by then). I also have acquired some top minor leaguers in Lesko (pitcher) and Zavala (OF) and thereby improved the Farm system. I also acquired some young, talented and inexpensive major league ready players to immediately plug into the lineup Carpenter (OF), Manning (RHP) and Mize (RHP).
Arte is happy because the team is leaner and more marketable, meaning it is likely to sell for more money than with a nearly $200 million payroll commitment. And the product on the field might even improve with young, motivated players at multiple positions.
Also, the AA team is loaded with young bullpen arms. I bring them up and see what they can do at the Major League level. They cannot do much worse than Loup did this year and they might be much MUCH better.
The team is now ready to be sold and a new owner will have the necessary luxury of making future payroll decisions within the framework of a cost-controlled, young team.
Nice article. I really enjoy reading these and thinking about it…
It’s a fire sale and something the Angels (arguably) should have done years ago, but of course this is in hindsight. I’m sure most of us wish they would have developed a better farm system and chosen free agents more carefully, however with the results over the last 10 years…
I’d love to keep Ohtani. I’m a little worried that if he’s traded the Angels don’t win a WS for another 86 years. Other than that, the hard truth is that it’s probably best to clear things out and rebuild the farm over the next two years.
Question: Doesn’t Arte walk away with more money if he has a lower payroll?
I think the team is worth more with a lower payroll. Any business that gets sold has an analysis of assets and liabilities. Payroll is a liability and would tend to lower the value of a business if high.
The question of whether to bite the bullet and do a real tear down is always looming and tough to answer. Will losing Ohtani cause us to not win a title till we’re all long dead? Or will signing him trap us in cement for the next twelve years?
For most, the answer seems to be “MY FANTASIES ARE NOT FANTASIES! UNICORNS ARE REAL AND THEY BUY BASEBALL TEAMS!” which could actually happen, at least in the short term.
Arte will make just about the same money no matter what, but he may have an easier time selling the team with cleaned out books.
For those of you who don’t enjoy this exercise- view it this way.
The Angels CANNOT just let Ohtani walk in free agency after this season. They MUST either trade or extend him. If they are not going to extend him, they need to trade him on the short term as his trade value decreases the closer he gets to free agency.
This series is showing the trade side of that decision. So it’s a view into one of two options – extend or trade.
If you read the articles that way I think many will find them more informative than threatening.
100% agree. My worst nightmare is the Angels thinking they’re in the hunt for the third wildcard spot, keeping Ohtani at the trade deadline, and then sucking and missing the playoffs. Getting nothing from Ohtani would cement the Angels suckage for years to come.
I think the bigger problem with this exercise than trading Ohtani is the semi arbitrary $100 payroll limit, which I don’t think is easily feasible unless a lot of expensive contracts other than Ohtani are moved. I don’t, for example, think Rendon can be moved without either eating most of the contract (which defeats the point of the exercise) or shipping out a lot of young talent (or other value) without much in return. I think three stage exercise is in order (which, incidentally, is like yours). 1) Trade Ohtani, duh! 2) what are the expensive pieces that are tradeable and what are possible returns (and costs)? I like your suggestion about the Tiger trade in principle–I just don’t think they’ll bite, that is all; 3) Are there any less self-destructive ways in which the less tradeable pieces can be dealt? At the end of all the steps, how realistic are the ideas? how much would we manage to pare the payroll? how competitive in short, medium, and long term would we be? Your proposal is a good starting point, BUT focusing the effort at the magic $100 million misses the point, IMHO.
PS. I think there are more attractive options if you pare the payroll down to $150 mil, or even $120 mil. For example, as high a regard I have for Cronenworth, I think Kim is a easier trade because he is more expensive and we might be able to ask for more young talent.
The whole point is that it’s hard. At no point did I ask about improving the team. In fact, I asked how long a person doing this thinks it will take the team to recover from this disaster. When you cut this much payroll I can 100% promise you the only goal is cutting payroll to a proscribed number… making the team better after the fact is the next job.
I don’t know why people are so upset about an arbitrary 100M payroll. The whole point of the “game” is that it’s arbitrarily very difficult. The point is to NOT make it easier by trying a 150M payroll. It’s not adult bumper bowling.
All of this! This exercise is about blowing up the 23′ season and having much more of a clean slate for the new ownership to set new ground rules. If they want to go back to a 195M payroll in 24; then guess what, the Angels can buy their way back to the top. If they want to slowly add pieces, they can. It gives flexibility to actually plan something out with this team
I like it Fansince1971. I would love to see the Angels go young and create payroll flexibility. The best way to do that is trade Ohtani. I love Ohtani and he has been amazing the last 2 years, but the last thing this team needs is another $400M 10+ year contract to a player on the wrong side of the age curve. It’s unrealistic to expect Ohtani to continue to produce at this level or even continue as a 2-way player for too many more years. Signing another mega deal would literally be the definition of insanity for this organization. It would not surprise me at all if this overhauled team outperformed our recent teams (which isn’t very hard to do). The only thing I would personally desire differently from above is obtaining prospects that are closer to major league ready in the trade for Ohtani. I don’t have any faith in the Angels current farm system to develop young players with high upside.
Thanks. I agree with the concept of getting younger with payroll flexibility. I think it is way more interesting watching young players develop as a team – particularly when compared with underperforming, overpaid free agents.
And I understand the desire for major league ready prospects but the key to the deal for me is Cronenworth who is young, very talented and cost controlled. Pads have the flexibility at SS to allow a player like that to be traded.
I do like Cronenworth. He would be a solid addition.
I like Cronenworth a lot too. Trouble is, he will need to get paid while the team as a whole is probably still developing out of hell. A problem teams like the Royals run into a lot.
It’s funny you should mention close to ready MiLB prospects cause I am having a problem with that on my attempt at this.
First, a GOOD prospect who has done well at AA and may even be in AAA or had a cup of coffee now… their value is REALLY high, like can’t get him for Ohtani strait up high. Younger prospects are less over inflated.
Second, I was almost done with mine, then I realized that I pushed to get a lot of fairly developed guys, especially pitchers. I felt OK with that because we would almost certainly trade a bunch of those pitchers for other needs.
BUT, even with that in mind, how many pitching prospects can you have on a AA/AAA roster? And how does that stunt A/A+ ball prospects? I realized I had really plugged up my system with guys who will be moldering waiting for innings or an MLB call up.
So now I’m trying to address that a little. It’s hard.
Well, one unexpected outcome of this exercise is that the comments only deepened my sense that we Angels fans should probably never make fun of stupid Yankees and Dodgers fans again.
Holy f*** what a pile of crap. Just a bunch of dudes grasping for exceptions to prove their dreams are real, like 35 year old single women on a red pill podcast. Just shrilly demanding shit that no sane GM is going to do. Demanding sugar daddy ownership. Demanding new facts that make their feels happy. And even getting mad at the silly thought experiment itself, like someone brought up the fact that they won’t look the same at 34 as they do at 24.
At least DoyYankee fans have the good sense to go root for a team that will somewhat provide them with the lifestyle they demand. I think your average Jeter Worshiper may actually have it on a lot of us at CtPG after all.
I still plan to do one of these. I just have to finish some work first. I’m gonna try to actually explain the who/why of the prospects I trade for, etc. It will be long, it will have a lot of names that no one has heard of, two people will read it and comment on it.
One of those comments will probably say “I think you can’t know this will happen. The new ownerz should just sign Ohtani and then also spend more money while also spending more on the farm but also also spending to build their own stadium. You can’t make the shots you don’t take!”
The reason a simulator must be used in this “game?” If the idea is to get to $100M, you would not be needing a simulator, not the NBA. Just trade away. aka Money Ball style,
but the goal was to still put together the best team than you can. Gitch I look forward to reading yours and I’m glad we have something to do as we wait for our new overlord to sign his massive check to Arte.
You are 100% Gitcho. Makes me not want to try or participate anymore.
Ummm, just a question here. Has Arte ACTUALLY said “Get the payroll down”?
As far as I know no such statement has been made or at least no indication of it was made. Yeah, he certainly could have expressed this sentiment to Perry in private. But he also could be thinking another way..
After all, we don’t know for a fact that the eventual buyer of the Angels will want a stripped down asset or a team bereft of talent.
Just because gitch suggested this as a game to play does not mean it should happen or that it even will happen. I have stated that the Ohtani deal in lieu of arbitration could signal the intention to keep Shohei long term. And if that is indeed the case, it would go hand in hand with the team “trying to win,” which makes this whole thought experiment useless and pointless.
If you want to look for clues, Perry actually came out and stated that the one year deal for Ohtani was “step one” and “Hopefully there’s more steps down the road.”
We all know Ohtani has expressed the desire to win, and that another poor Angels season would make his departure after 2023 very likely. But this in no way means that the organization itself is either thinking about trading Ohtani, or that they’re in the planning phase of “stripping it all down.”
Other than the fact that the process is common for owners planning to sell a team we have no indication this is the Angels plan. Every situation is different, and as I stated above we have no idea who the eventual owner will be, or whether that person want a team ready to win or a stripped down asset.
It’s a fun game. That is all.
Ever hear the saying “Know Jesus, Know Peace? No Jesus, No Peace.”
With Jack it’s … “Know Jack, No Fun”
Frankly, I don’t know why I bother.
“I have no idea what you’re doing. I mean, literally, I am totally ignorant of what’s going on here. Now let me tell you everything I aggressively feel about what you are doing.”
Yes. Arte said to get the payroll down to 100M. Or, well, Andrew.
Did you miss it?
This might be the most “JackFrost” comment ever…meaning yes, its truly just awful in about every way.
Sadly either Trout or Ohtani must go for under $100M to happen.
I will let all you stat heads travel into the weeds figuring that out!!
And Trout brings back far less than Ohtani. If you asked a team to take Trout and his entire contract you might get back a single decent prospect.
Yeah, he’s worth 14 on the trade sims…. that’s a top 3-6 prospect on a bad farm, a top 6-10 on a good farm. But also a butt ton of salary relief. Realistically, if we got a Logan O’Hoppe type need fit in the trade and the ability to sign say Sandoval, Ward and Walsh to extensions past arb it might be the type of move that makes some sense in the real “not just a game” world.
I realize this is all just an exercise and trends toward creativity. But if anyone is even trying, they need to take into account some basic steps. For example, if you want to have a real franchise, you cannot just undertake a massive trade everyone approach. No players will come to your team afterward. You become the team that has to massively overpay for mediocre talent. So the notion of trading away all of these supposed “bad contracts” doesn’t lead anywhere. You become the worst team in the league. Later when you want to add payroll you cannot because the players are all wary about your club and won’t sign with you. Hence, any trade of Trout is an absolute last resort as it brings little back and sends all of the wrong messages.
Additionally, unless the team is supposedly bought for billions by an owner that wants to offend the fan base and ruin interest in the team for 5-10 years (thus making his purchase a disaster), any trades of real talent (Ohtani) need to be for a number of quality prospects that fill future holes and make the “salary dump” respectable. Whatever others might want to say, acquiring Ohtani gives the new team possibly the best player ever and tens of millions of new fans in the overseas market plus merchandise sales etc. People can talk about it being only for one year, but talks behind the scenes can occur as to likelihood of extensions etc. Some teams also have limited win now windows (Yankees) so they may pay more and outbid others. At least mild overpays should be expected. This isn’t the same as trading for Castellanos or Olson. Those guys are what their talent provides and that’s it.
So while having fun, please keep an eye on the ball. If the game is to become the Pirates and suck for 15 years, it doesn’t matter at all. No need to play.
Well, in the real world we’d also have to deal with Trout’s no trade clause too.
But the rest of what you said is clown shoes. Just ask the team that won the WS last year and the two teams in it this year.
So the Braves sold off everyone before winning the WS? When was that? BTW they have an extremely loyal well-established fan base as do the Phillies. I don’t get whatever you are saying. This is the Angels. They are already second-fiddle to the Dodgers. The Padres are now good. A new owner cannot buy the team for $2 Billion and then get rid of everyone without getting solid value back. BTW the exercise itself by its title says still remaining competitive.
That was my addition to the game (remain competitive). And I actually think these changes improve the team. I know you don’t so no need to state your opinion again.
Yeah…. that’s not the title I came up with at all. And yes. The Braves completely stripped down to Freeman and some guys a few years ago, as did the Astros and Phillies. Hell, the Phillies rebuild even stalled out, now they’re back on track.
What does fan loyalty have to do with the fundamental question of WHAT WOULD YOU DO IF YOU HAD TO GET DOWN TO 100M?
I don’t give a shit about how it makes your jiggly parts uncomfortable to think about it so you have to post a bunch of stupid shit that has nothing to do with it like “ownerz won’t spend duh money and then cut payroll no way.”
Probably not, but the more I read responses like this the more I kinda hope they do.
I know this is a creative exercise. Thanks for the effort. But this lineup and staff wins maybe 60 games, if that. Ugh. The Angels have to get much more value for their moves. BTW Mize is a potential talent as a flyer. I don’t see it with Manning. The Angels should cut or trade Canning. What is the true value of Cronenworth and Carpenter?
Where is the real value for the future? At this point neither Adell nor Moniak can play except as a spot bench guy. So where is this going?
“What is the real value”
Go take a look at the trade simulator. It’s been pretty darn accurate.
You want the other teams to make fantasy trades they will never make.
Trade value is a factor of team control and cost control. Ohtani has neither. So his “real value” is no where near where you believe it to be. The more you say it will not make it so.
It’s not all about the trade simulator. And you are assuming there is no team control whereas there could be a built in extension as part of a deal. Many things are possible. Either way, despite payroll issues you only trader Ohtani if you are getting something good back.
I would just assume say “Thanks, but no thanks” to poor offers and keep Ohtani for the duration of 2023 while doing everything possible to win and make the playoffs.
How has that strategy worked out over the last few seasons?
And why do you think Arte is going to spend money when he is selling the team?
Like I said, maybe the new owner likes the idea of having Shohei Ohtani on his team. Not a stretch to think that might be true.
Maybe Ohtani likes the idea of playing for a contender, and no matter who the new owner is and how much they are willing to pay Ohtani to stay, he’ll leave for greener pastures. Not a stretch to think that might be true.
Your comments on Ohtani always seem to leave his wants out of the discussion.
If you are an owner that is truly committed to winning then what a FA actually wants doesn’t matter.
Just not true. I have stated many times that Shohei may indeed leave after 2023. But he has not made a definitive statement, and what most are going on is the statement that he “wants to win.”
Incidentally, he also stated that he likes his teammates and likes playing in Anaheim, so logic would tell us that IF the Angels were winning he would be open to staying here. I have said many times that so blithely abandoning the hope of keeping Ohtani is not a good idea.
History shows that winning teams have at least one “Ace” starter on their roster. If for no other reason that should make keeping Ohtani a priority, even at the cost of potentially creating more depth or getting an upgrade at shortstop etc.. Those things would be secondary or tertiary and not really “needs” in the grand scheme.
Trout is going nowhere and is still a top talent in the game, and many still consider him the best player in the game, me included. That being the case it makes sense to put the best team around Mike Trout that you can. This would include having an “Ace” starting pitcher, in this case Ohtani.
My philosophy/approach has always been, putting a winning/playoff team on the field and Ohtani will stay. So my thinking flows from that idea. Suddenly slashing the payroll and trading all of our good, young cost-controlled players just to ditch salary does not achieve that goal. IF a potential new owner gives Arte the imperative to do that it would be a different matter. If fictional new owner says “strip it down and I’ll buy” then that would be reason to proceed with the tear down. But until that happens it makes no sense to do that. Not with the roster that we currently have.
For the first month and a half last season this team showed it had the talent to win. Unfortunately, organizational shenanigans popped the balloon. We have Perry and Arte to blame for that — and guess what, those two will be gone in short order.
The translation is that there is hope. Sure, there is no guarantee we’ll get a good owner, but we all know Arte was a failure and a total mess. It would be hard to do worse than that.
Maybe you didn’t read my prior posts on the Ohtani situation, but I have consistently said that I would not trade him for prospects and would turn down any offer that a) did not include a current, established “Ace” to replace him and b) other proven MLB talent that could step in right away and help.
I understand that in the current, ridiculous “simulator” climate that most teams would not provide what Shohei is worth. I therefore would choose to keep him for 2023 and attempt to fill our holes in the bullpen and focus on making the playoffs this upcoming season. I don’t think that goal is far-fetched. Not at all. If we do that I think there is a very good chance Shohei signs here.
Could Shohei decide to leave anyway? Sure. But considering the alternative :giving him away for crap and throwing away the remaining good years of Trout, it is better to roll the dice and go all in for 2023.
Here’s the trade simulator. Play with it a bit and you’ll understand.
Using this looks like you could get 4 quality prospects and Trivino for Ohtani.
😂 😂 🤣 🤣
I’d keep Ohtani, his arm is just too good. Trade Rendon plus Bachman, Bush to the Giants. They are cash rich this off-season and looking for offensive RH talent .Rendon is good player, just needs to get away from this lousy organization. Come on, Perry effed up with Bachman. So he still has some glitter and the Giants can crank out good arms.
I’d need a little more juice in that Padres trade.
Tigers would not want the baggage. Nice thinking though.
How does that Trade Simulator look on your Bachman and Rendon trade 😂
I’ll repeat myself- no team will take Rendon’s contract. None.
Padres would already be substantially overpaying with the current suggestion.
You could trade Rendon as part of a package to Yankees or Mets. You need to pair with the desperate teams and dangle out her good stuff for them, but it could get done and you could get solid prospects in return. Depends on what the added value is for the other team. If it is Tepera, that’s one thing. If it is Ohtani in NY, that’s something else indeed. Again, the Angels should just keep these guys and marshal other resources to compete. But I get the exercise.
I get your point, but the rules were to use the simulator as our guide. Rendon being a massive negative, you’d have to throw in a lot of money or take a huge contract back to make it work.
You’re not getting a haul back if you include Rendon. That’s the trade, you get financial freedom, they get Rendon.
It’s almost like when the Dodgers took on all of Boston’s bad contracts when they had new ownership. You would need that to happen again.
So in that vein, maybe the Met’s might consider blowing up the payroll for a year to try and win it all.
Nobody will take on Rendon’s contract. Even if you offered Ohtani and Rendon and asked for nothing in return- it won’t happen.
Angelstan and his ‘you have to get more value’ is just unwilling to accept that there is no more value to be had. You don’t get a ton in return even with Ohtani for one year of control and $30 million of cost.
These guys want the other teams to make hypothetically terrible trades that they will never do.
I guess no one would make a dumb trade to take Vernon Wells or some other guy on a bad contract. Oh wait . . .
Correct. The only team that would take on the Rendon contract already has him under contract.
In “the real world” if I were stripping the Angels down to the water line to build as beastly a farm as I can and have Detmers be my veteran leader I’d hold onto Rendon and Walsh (he’s at 0 right now).
That huge negative number by Rendon’s name gets way way smaller as soon as he is healthy for any length of time and Walsh will go back to being fairly valuable if he comes back strong too.
You could get relief from Rendon with a lot less sacrifice and probably some OK prospects for Walsh if you wait till July.
Presuming Rendon stays healthy.
I agree fully. Trading Rendon right now is foolish and impossible. But if he goes back to being Rendon – well then that’s different.
A year of 4-5 WAR healthy play and it’s a completely different situation.
But if the game is right now, the only one of the $30m contracts to deal is Ohtani’s.
Meta, Giants and Dodgers have deep pockets and a need. In reality, nothing will happen, lame duck franchise but those teams can absolutely be enticed.
Why? Because you say so? Those teams and organizations are quality because they don’t make moves like you suggest.
“The Angels should just keep these guys and marshal other resources to compete.”
Arte’s resources? He’s selling the team.
Next owner’s resources? Who is that?
That’s the point. It’s not business as usual. By the time the new owner comes in Ohtani is likely to be under control for half a season. Then he is bye-bye with nothing in return.
If your the Yankees or Mets – why give up a bunch of talent when you can wait for the ‘23 off-season and get Ohtani for only money.
Exactly, Dodgers too. LA has taken on bad contracts before and they need to replace Justin Turner. Rendon just needs to get away from the Angels dumpster. He is a good hitter.
Everyone is tradable. If the angels paid down what is owed and toss in some incentives , they could move him in heart beat . No question about it.
Ohtani is not going anywhere. No chance in 2023.
But if the Angels pay Rendon’s salary in order to trade him, how do they get down to $100m which was the point of the exercise.?
Whose on friggin’ first?!
This is true. Though there could be a trade where you pay a big chunk of Rendon’s salary to a team that really needs a 3B to push for a WS and in return you actually get some prospect value back… but it’s tough, and that would be a bold move in this exercise.
I think the SD trade would work, from both sides, but while the Tiger trade looks pretty good from our end, why would Tigers want to make that deal?
They are not likely to go anywhere, so Tepera and Loup have no value for them, except as possible midseason trade baits if they turn things around. While Ward does offer some potential upside and Tigers seem to have some OF issues (I don’t know what’s with them currently all that well, though), it’s not clear to me if Ward is particularly useful to them. Why shouldn’t they just trot out Carpenter unless they really need RH hitters?
So it looks like all Tigers would be doing would be doing us a favor by taking on two expensive vets and an interesting but “old young” player, all of whom are valuable to them mainly as flip candidates, plus another high upside prospect with some issues (Suarez), in return for 3 high upside prospects (whose value may have dropped a bit due to injuries). I don’t see the Tigers making this deal.
The trade simulator approved it as fair and I think the Tigers would be more interested than you might at first think. They are getting a young, controllable arm in Suarez and another controllable player coming off a great season. The players the Angels receive have not had success in Detroit so a change of scenery could be good for Detroit and the players. I think it’s got more of a chance than you give it credit for.
I can see the logic, but if I were Detroit FO, I’d want another piece at least, preferably someone younger with upside.
Correct Kim. The suitors for whatever the Angels wanted to try here would be Giants, Yankees, Mets. Padres already have lots of young talent. They made their moves in 2022. Cardinals might be another if they think they are close. You need to find the teams that think they could win it all in 2023 or at worst 2024 and get a massive overpay as the other team goes all in to try to win it. I don’t see Tigers fitting.
Have you seen the way Preller operates in SD? He’s all about making the big move to go for it. He would not hesitate to make a splashy trade for Ohtani if he thought he had a shot. They have the flexibility to move Cronenworth with Tatis coming back. I agree the Angels would probably get much more than what the trade simulator is showing, but I think the trade simulator is a good exercise for this and keeps wild trades in check.
Add the Padres then. We will take some of their young relievers and other decent MLB talent and key minor leaguers. The problem is you lose half your fanbase (including overseas) to the team down the freeway from you. That isn’t good and actual owners don’t make decisions like that.
You’re likely to lose that Ohtani fan base anyway when he leaves after 2023.
The point is you either need to extend Ohtani or trade him. The worst thing that can happen is having him leave for free agency. It’s complicated substantially by the team being for sale and Arte likely wanting to leave the decision to new ownership.
Apart from this exercise, you try this year and trade him at All-Star break if it’s a disaster. You try to extend him also. And if you trade him, it’s to someone from a city not close to Anaheim.
OK. If we wait till the ASB and are sitting in third place because the Mariners, Astros are better than us and we end up trading Ohtani for a couple semi-good but not top 50 prospects…. or better yet we don’t trade him and he just leaves…. and I see you raging and complaining about it I will….
A) Remember. Don’t doubt it.
B) Shit all over you like an African floor toilet.
Moe Vaughn. Vernon Wells. Albert Pujols. Josh Hamilton. Justin Upton, Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon….. all people around here do is complain about these contracts. And demand we do the same, but much bigger, for Ohtani. And that IF he even wants to sign here. It’s ridiculous.
Will I be happy if I get some more Ohtani? Sure. Is it the smart thing to do or does wishing for Shohei then just lead to more wishing for more stuff and then more wishing? No. It’s not smart at all.
well thought out! great work and THANKS for sharing!
Thanks 😊 appreciate it.
In all seriousness I like this approach.
With a little health for Trout and Rendon this team could actually be competitive. Add in some FA signings for the new ownership team to decide on and we’re golden.
Thanks. It solves SS and creates a young and potentially dominant future rotation and strengthens the farm. It also gives young players like Adell and O’Hoppe lots of playing time. It also provides flexibility down the road for FA signings.
It’s definitely NOT a win now approach but could pay big dividends down the road.
And the other approach has definitely not been working.
I imagine new ownership wants to be able to make new acquisitions to be able to say that they were responsible for the newfound success. Similar to Arte when he signed Vlad, Kelvin Escobar, Bartolo Colon, and Jose Guillen shortly after buying the team.
These trades give the new owners a cleaner slate to sign their own free agents to make the team competitive while taking credit for it. Only then can the farm system be developed enough to make the whole organization competitive.
The Angels currently have Fletcher, Soto, and Rengifo who can play short. Plus Squid off the bench. Plus multiple prospects in the minors. Why is there a SS problem? Soto was a great glove man who hit about .400 last year. That isn’t really who he will be. But how do you not give him a shot?
None of those players are true shortstops in today’s game. Which one will hit 30 HR and drive in 100 runs?
If you have been a fan since 71, you know you don’t need a SS that hits 30 HRs and drives in 100 runs to win games. See Eckstein, David. See Foley, Tim. BTW Soto looks to be as natural of a SS as you can find. Squid also but he cannot hit.
You are right about this “real MLB shortstop” BS. What we need is two guys with 900+ OPS, a couple more with 800s and at least two over 730-50 preferably 3. It doesn’t have to be the shortstop who gets us there, we just need to get there, it can even be a platoon combo that gets us there…. that’s why it seemed that John Jasso was always on a competitive team.
The Phillies, for example or the Mariners, or the Rays, oh and Yankees and Cardinals.. they didn’t get much pop out of their SS but did find other ways to win.
The Angels just had too much offense lost to injury.
Yes. And if we are keeping payroll down, the few cheap guys that look like they can play some in the infield should be part of the team in 2023 and the near future. Payroll can be cut by moving Tepera or Loup and relying on improving minor league prospects and other creativity in the middle innings.
Starting Lineup looks like this
Fletcher/Rengifo – 2B
Trout – CF/DH
Rendon – 3B
Adell – LF
O’Hoppe – C
Moniac – DH/CF
Minor leaguers from AA
I think this team could be a .500 squad depending on injuries.
I don’t know if I would count on Canning as a starter.
Agreed. I have him penciled in but there are obviously other options
As you read these two pieces just think how hard it is for the Angels to even blow it up and start over right now.
I liked the strategy of buying the Tigers failed renaissance. Mize is out hurt, Mannings had injuries too, but if we are rebuilding we can bring them along and both are super talented. That future rotation with Manning, Mize and Detmers could be really great with a little luck.
I like the Tigers trade and it makes sense for us. Can you give us a picture of the roster now? And in the payroll, you still need to add all the min salary for a 25-man team. When you add them all up, are you above $100M?
But good work getting us lean and quick.
I’m at $104 million presuming Sportrac is correct re arb raises for 2024. And, yes, lineup to come.
Good job – thanks for the work on this!
Just a note, you gotta keep Trout OR Rendon… not both, unless you want an extra extra hard challenge.
I kept both bc I think they are untradable.
No one is taking Rendon’s contract.
And you won’t get any value for Trout.
Sure, yah. I just don’t want anyone to think they HAVE to keep both.
I get it. But if you are looking for realistic analysis, I think both have to stay bc (and I will repeat) NO ONE is taking on Rendon’s contract.
Too bad Tony Reagins isn’t any team’s current GM
You’d have to take on another REALLY BAD CONTRACT, and their aren’t many left in MLB.
The only 3 that I found are Baez, Bumgardner, and Corbin
Your pick of Patrick “at least he’ll pitch some innings” Corbin was probably the best choice.
Plus, all the bitch tits around here were flopping and yelling about us not just paying the extra 4M or what ever that it would have taken to sign him…. even though he said he wants to pitch back east.
He’s pretty much the original CtPG/HH fan won’t accept reality signing BUT NOW said genius Angels fans can finally have his greatness all to themselves AND they can go back to having no third baseman. Win win.
rec’d for bitch tits. classic
People are also forgetting that his 2024 salary is more than Trout’s!! $40M backloaded contract!!!!!!
Thanks for the hard work on this thought exercise.
It was fun. I enjoyed it. Thanks to the editors for their effort as well.
I think I’m going to faint…