I made a promise to myself a couple months ago that if the Angels were two under .500 at the All-Star Break, I would take a stab at writing an “If I Were Perry” mid-season article. I know we’re not there (yet) but wanted to get this out before any real moves might negate it. I’ve never contributed any content to this site other than some non-value-add comments so I hope you have some patience for a first-timer.
I liked Jeff’s previous write-up, and thought it had some great and original ideas. I went in another direction primarily for variety’s sake, however. I approached this as a full reset, or as “full” as could be possible even if highly improbable. Arte’s habits and predilections are well documented at this point and I’m not foolish enough to believe this has a remote chance of happening in real life. However, I do think it is realistic enough to be a fun thought experiment, which I guess these all are any way.
I also did all these trades in Out of the Park Baseball 23 (OOTP) and auto-played the rest of the season as well as a few years later just to see how things shook out.
Trade One:
Let’s get this out of the way, I don’t think Shohei will stay, and this would be prime time to trade him. As much as I love him, the last decade or so has taught me that having 1-2 superstars on a team with a bunch of scrubs is not a recipe for winning. I blew my allowance on a legit Ohtani Angels jersey last year and I will wear it proudly forever.
Brewers are in win-now mode, and their starting pitching has been hit hard with injuries. With Peralta and Houser out, they are going to need someone to seal the deal in the post season. When you’ve got a legitimate chance like this, these are the moves you make.
P Ashby: 24 years old, previous team #1 prospect. 4th round draft pick. I see him becoming a solid #3 in a starting rotation. 5.5 years of control left with good upside. Highly regarded slider (MOAH SLIDER). In my OOTP simulation, he was an all-star in 2023.
OF Chourio: #38 on the 100 top prospects. Developing well and fast even at a super young age (18). Supposedly has good plate discipline, whatever that is. #jaded
OF Frelick: #49 on the top 100 prospects list. Brewer’s 2021 first round draft pick. Multisport toolsy athletic outfielders? Shoot me now. Great speed, projected to potentially be a solid leadoff hitter.
OF Hendry Mendez: Super young (18), apparently with lots of raw talent. Already getting some hardware at the lowest levels, but still, eyeballs are eyeballs. Scouts say “he remains a far-away lottery ticket, but one that seems much closer to hitting based on his elite contact rates.”
SS/2B Turang: Brewers #5 team prospect, forecasted to be a solid regular and above average defensive shortstop. Serviceable trade-bait or backup. Local product from Corona. Simulation has him being an everyday starter.
Trade Two:
We all know Rengifo is supposed to be a Dodger, so let’s put the world right again here. Would Arte nix this one too? Who knows, let’s say he doesn’t. Dodgers are in desperate need of a corner outfielder, and I strongly support Jeff’s sell high mentality in regard to Ward. The simulation has Ward going on to win two All-Star selections for the record though.
1B Busch: #43 on the top 100 prospects list. Scouts say “one of the best all-around offensive prospects in his Draft class as the 31st overall selection.” High potential with above average offense, what you need in a first baseman.
P Graterol: Graterol has become a key piece of the Dodgers’ bullpen this season and has shown to be decently reliable. Years of control left as well. They might be more inclined to the trade if they get good news regarding Tommy Kahnle and Blake Treinen.
RF Pages: #48 on the top 100 prospects list. A plus defensive left fielder that can hit for .250+? Compared to what we’ve had out there, we’ll take it. Won High-A Central MVP honors.
P Pepiot: #76 top 100. Scouts say “Pepiot owns the best changeup in the Minors, earning top-of-the-scale 80 grades from some evaluators for a low-80s weapon that fades before dropping at the plate.” In my OOTP simulation, he pitched a shutout game 3 vs Cardinals in 2024 WS.
Trade 3
This is one that I don’t really agree with Baseball Trade Values on as in my opinion it suffers from recency bias. I see Raisel as undervalued. Fantasy Baseball trade calculators have Iglesias as the 9th best reliever in the game now, even with this year on the record. Besides, we all know that as soon as you take off the Angels uniform your elbow ligaments strengthen, spin rate increases, and your grit goes up 2.3 times. I also hear that some guys on the Blue Jays like sunflower seeds too. In OOTP, I was able to get a decent amount more but in a nod to the website, I came out with this.
P Castillo: Scouts say “Castillo, who has been working out of the bullpen with the Jays, has a 1.92 ERA in 11 appearances in the minors this year, nine of them starts.” Got rocked in his first appearance vs Yankees, but still very young and has decent upside.
3B Martinez: #37 prospect in top 100. Real young (20) but developing fast. High ceiling and Jays have high hopes. Brings some big power. Simulation has him becoming multi-time all-star worth 3-5 WAR a year.
Trade 4
This one was tricky. I am by no means a baseball stats expert nor anywhere near a reliable scout. I stopped playing the game around age 13. My batting average might have got me an #9 spot on the Angels, but that’s about it. To determine the trade value of Syndergaard I relied on Baseball Trade Rumors and OOTP. Nobody would take Syndergaard for anything reasonable in my mind in OOTP. The best I could do was get some super low level, low potential prospects. I know there is a bias against “overpaid veterans”, but I honestly think this deal is fair, especially if we throw in some cash.
P Pallente: A local kid, from Mission Viejo and pitched at UCI. A young reliever with years of team control showing promise. We all know relievers are volatile, but if you get to the Majors you have at least proven something. Strength in numbers at this point. Scouts say his ceiling is a #4 starter.
TLDR:
What we’ve been doing is not working. We trade some of our most valuable (it’s all relative, right?) pieces and target a run in 2024-26. We go from ZERO prospects in the top 100 to six, only behind the Guardians in count (7). We keep Rendon (no one is going to take that contract and I think he bounces back) and of course Trout, and try to use the payroll flexibility that some actual farm developed young players would provide. In OOTP, we end 2022 in 4th place in the AL West (though not far from 5th), sneak in a wildcard spot in 2023 but are bounced in that round. In 2024 we make it all the way to Game 7 of the World Series against the Cardinals but lose 6-4. Honestly, that’d be a win in my book. Sadly, we revert to mediocrity by 2026 but hey, it’s just a simulation! What goes unsaid is that I would love some actual money invested in play development and scouting too but that’s a piece for another day.
Photo credit: Rex Fregosi
Prospects mean nothing. Got that? No-thing.
Where has being ranked in the top 2-3 Farm Systems in all MLB over the past roughly five years gotten the Padres ?
Yeah, they are a fun team to root for, but they have not won squat. Trading a once in lifetime player who is only 29 for a handful of done nothings who may or may not pan out is not a good strategy. IF you are going to trade Ohtani you have to get proven MLB talent back in return.
And alot of it.
This Ohtani trade you propose is nothing short of ridiculous. I do not care one iota what your OOTP says.
my If I were PTP (actually being him, rather than being me as the GM)
I’d sit on my hands for awhile, eventually make a few calls, settle for Peguero/Junk/Selman types.
I’d love all of this, plus Trout to TEAM A plus cash for a couple mid-top 30 prospects. I think we’re stuck with Rendon for now. But get that payroll down to like 90M. Watch the prospects grow.
Only problem is you’ll likely get 1/2 of what you think in that Dodgers trade and 2/3 of what you think in the Brewers trade. The more I see simulator outcomes for these trades the more I think the simulator’s a bit optimistic.
It may seem fatalistic, but I’m not, not really. I have always dreamed of a team with a really good farm + money. We can grow a bunch of kids. We have the money to do early extensions for a bunch of them. We have the money to sign FAs when it’s time to compete…. but we won’t depend on them 100%. If we can get that I will gladly miss out on Troutani and suck for a couple years. If we keep the stars, cool too, but I’m down for trying something drastic.
I also want Kevin Costner for a manager. Grit AF and if he can read a script he can read a binder…. probably memorize most of it.
The problem with the trade evaluator is that other GMs will disagree with it, just as you disagree with the recent bias. What seems fair to us might not be what the evaluator thinks is fair and won’t be what other teams think is fair.
Unfortunately.
It’s a great thought exercise, though.
You can watch the prospects grow w/Trout and we already suck now. Took care of your dreams in one swoop.
Artie will only trade Shohei if he gives them a sign he will not resign.
Versus the Cards pitcher with a low ceiling, maybe we pawn Thor off on the Padres for their Competitive Balance 39th pick. Hoping we could could do better. Need to move off of this guy fast before he comes up lame.
He’s gonna want to play in the AL where he can DH.
However he would have to go to where ever since he doesn’t have a NTC.
They have the designated hitter in the National League now.
Good article for some of this year’s new rules
https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/phillies/here-are-new-mlb-rules-2022-season?amp
Are sure its not 1902heaven? The DH is everywhere. Where the hell have you been?
I also follow football after Labor Day especially since 2014.
Since we’re usually out of the PO picture. Why do I care about what the league office does between December to February? That’s why Colin Cowherd and rest of Fox Sports won’t talk about MLB except during AS Week or the PO’s.
Or you could just say “Oh. Silly me.”
oh but he’s never. ever. ever. ever. ever. wrong. never.
Dammit… I hoped he was one of the nameless people that the management dealt with.
May 13, 2022…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 💩
I was going to say that was as weak an excuse as I have ever heard. 2002 would have been better off saying he has been held hostage in a cave and has had no outside news for a year.
😂
damn and I thought i was out of the loop on stuff.
I just found out the mound has been moved back from 45 ft!!
No way 😳
THIS JUST IN: The forward pass is now ALLOWED in football.
also this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f_DPrSEOEo
Very well done. I think the Brewers trade is the least likely, but getting a similar return for Ohtani from SD or others is possible.
This scenario really improves the farm more than mine did. I focused on MLB ready talent for the most part.
The issue with Iglesias is the contract. When he’s on he’s good, but not many teams will want to pay a closer $13 million per year so it decreases his overall value. However, to a big market team like the Dodgers that’s not an issue. Or the Angels could kick in some cash.
Thanks, Jeff! I won’t deny that there is a little personal hope (read: bias) that Ohtani doesn’t suit up long term for a team on my yuck list, but it just so happens that many of those teams are also the rich ones that could afford him so…bleh.
For your first time, and even if it was your 100th article, great job!! You included sims, a TL:DR and everything you did makes sense… even switching it up from Jeff’s thoughts. Even though it’s not likely to happen, I’ll like coming back to this article to see how some of those prospects did!
If you have anything more, please share in the future. You’re good at this! Solid purchase too, which Ohtani jersey did you go with (home, road, something else?)
Thanks, 2020! It took me longer than I thought but I had fun doing it! My wife just laughed when I told her I was working on a little write up for CtPG. She knows it as the site I go to on my phone after I see something great/ridiculous during a game. 😅
I would like to propose a simpler option: Arte fires Perry, Nevin, every coach, every trainer, and every scout. The Angels “rebuild” that group (instead of the players). Let the new staff make some logical player trades, not including our stars, and let’s see what happens.
All this shit needs is the right guy smearing it on shoes.
Don’t disagree. I think you can actually do this in OOTP Baseball, not intended to be a plug. Only that I was too GA to invest that much into the nitty gritty. Got to keep the day job and all.
I don’t think a team like Milwaukee would give up so much for Ohtani when they probably don’t have the money to sign him long term. A team like that has stayed competitive by not destroying their farm for a single player.
But Ohtani is 2 players not 1 lol
That’s fair!
Very well done. I am impressed. I like your ideas. And, as a fantasy GM or POBO, I agree that there has to be a blow up of some kind. The 500lb gorilla has grown to over 1,000 lbs. These, or trades like them, would bolster the Farm and put the team in a position where it could become competitive in say 4 years.
That said – I am a realist. Downing mentions it down below – Arte is Barnum only interested in getting folks to his circus. He will not stand for 4 years of 15,000 or less in attendance. That is why I feel this type of thing will never happen. Its too many dollars out of Arte’s wallet to agree to trade a draw (not to mention international superstar) like Ohtani.
Separately – these are among the reasons I will not be renewing my season tickets after decades of loyal purchase. I feel this team has no real direction or plan. Maybe I am wrong. Maybe Minasian is quietly building something as we see with the Trash Pandas. But I think the guy at the helm is only interested in butts in the seats and selling overpriced stuff to folks who spend most of their time on their cellphones at games. I just have lost my fire and passion justifying such a major investment in a club that I see as a rudderless ship.
It is very frustrating. I can remember the day that I first bought my tickets after taking a tour of the stadium and how excited I was. I can remember every upgrade and finally getting my dream 4 seats. I can remember how excited I was when those ticket books would arrive and I would carefully tear the tickets out looking at the pictures and feeling the excitement of the upcoming games. I can remember every amazing game I sat in those seats not to mention the 2002 playoffs and World Series. To say giving up the tickets and all that seniority is a tough decision is to put it lightly. But I just dont respect this Organization anymore – and therefore I cannot keep shelling out money to it.
Yes! Doing an actual thing! And they will actually ask why when you cancel.
And I will tell them!
Thanks, 71! I’ve only been an “active” fan for maybe 15 years or so, and it’s been rough to say the least. However, I always figured it must have been worse in the previous decades. Perhaps not though.
I second the passing on season tickets, the most vocal thing you can do for the cause. I figure that most of my purchases are away games at this point, but Arte still dips into my pocket for MLB.tv. That being said, I fully intend to have a silly little sign that says something like “Just stop, Arte” the next game I attend. 🙄
I love Ohtani as much as any other Angel fan does. Hell, he is the only pitcher who has won a game for us over what the past three weeks?
With that being said, the only way we could keep Ohtani and win is to trade Trout along with everyone else Nishio mentions above. Its great to have these two stars on our team, but with zero development going on at the lower levels this isn’t going to get better anytime soon. For some reason this franchise has gone the route of trying to plug holes with some off the wall ridiculous contracts that have not worked out. We need to develop, develop, develop. Our best decade with this franchise directly correlates with excellent player development. While we had guys like Guerrero and such we also developed a majority of the players on the roster between 2000-2010. Until we return to that level we will always be in a catch up situation, one which doesn’t work out often in the MLB.
Again and again and again and again……
It’s going to be next to impossible to trade Trout with his gigantic contract. WTF people, some of you act like he’s still 27 and making just $8M a yr. BTW Jered Walsh (the late bloomer is gonna be 29 yrs old at the end of this month).
It’s just an exercise.
The good news is that we all act like they have the DH in the NL.
We can trade Trout. It’s not like this guy said we’d get a ton for him. But for salary relief? Yah, there are teams that will take him.
You are right, its not the easiest thing to do considering how big Trout’s contract is. In order to have a chance to turn things around in future years we have to stop handing out these insane contracts. The hit this team takes with all of our bad contracts (a practice we have been doing for far too long now) is massive. Going forward the decision to sign long term contracts really has to be better considered. This has been an achilles for this franchise for sometime now. Hopefully for the first time they will learn from those mistakes and turn to developing players instead of always chasing the big contract guys.
For your trade with Milwaukee, consider Joey Wiemer. I like him probably more than Milwaukee values him.
obligatory engagement (joke)
All seriousness:
I think trading Ohtani takes a special team to bring him in and build their team around him. We’ve done it but it isn’t working. Sadly, I think the 6-man rotation thing and the workload on him isn’t sustainable in a team that desires to be in a playoff hunt. We’ve had the “freakshow” for two years, but we aren’t winning anything except winning at the turnstyles and at incoming revenue for the owner.
Angels2020 posted an interesting Forbes / Moreno link where Moreno admits: “For us in the baseball business, it’s all about getting people to the ballpark.” … notice that winning isn’t in that equation. Winning doesn’t matter – create a buzz around having Ohtani and Trout and people will come to the park (headed there the next few days myself).
Going forward – Angels re-sign Ohtani by bumping up salary expenditures but not really focusing on winning. Instead – get people to the park.
(headed there the next few days myself)
Me too, but only because I bought the tix before the season. Told my bleed-blue sister I’d take her to the Freeway Series. Not looking forward to either the game or the drive home.
LUCKY… you get to see Weaver’s first pitch Friday night! Enjoy!
Tonight, Friday (geez were tickets expensive), Futures Game Saturday.
We might suck, but baseball sure is a good escape
Tonight and tomorrow were sub-$9 per ticket including all fees. Sorry – I am going the ‘next two days’ – i refuse to watch Dodgers, Yanks, Red Sox games at the Big A going on a couple of years now. Their fans are more insufferable than our sad lot.
Exactly!! I’ve gotten a few games for under $5 (fees and everything). I don’t go with expectations we will win anything at this point (obvi). The games you mentioned are brutal at times, but it’s when some of my friends/family select to go (maybe they like the look of a sell out more than 17,000 – most likely Thursday afternoons attendance). Wtf do I know
I watch the hitters I want, see how our SP is doing, and otherwise that’s one of the great things about baseball… enjoy who you brought, those around you, I’ve even seen (maybe even helped) an usher say you suck to a guy wearing a 55 Pujols jerseys (dodgers weren’t playing, this year). I even try to do what I can, when I can and pay the businesses around the Big A for parking instead of having it go to Arte (if he’s the one that collects general parking). It’s the same price.
I refuse to go to YankSux games. This was a special thing, birthday present for bleeds-blue sister.
This would obviously be exciting for the farm so I wouldn’t be bummed if this happened. I’m doubtful on the other teams being willing to surrender the returns for Ward, Iglesias etc. though
Preference is to keep Ohtani for historical reasons but they should absolutely ask him point blank if he’s set on leaving so they can make the best move. If he’s on the fence, they definitely take one more shot next season to win him over and trade him at the deadline.
I popped an Ohtani image on there for your title image. Hopefully that is OK.
Thanks! I wasn’t sure how to add a title image like that. Did I attach the images incorrectly as well?
The in-article images look fine to me. Only the Admin/Editor people can give you a title image. That is kind of why the user articles don’t publish immediately.
I can’t see any of the in-article images. So I have no idea what we’re giving up in each trade.
Are you on AOL?
Bummer. The deal with the Brewers sends away Ohtani. The deal with the Dodgers sends away Ward and Rengifo. The deal with the Blue Jays sends away Iglesias and Quijada. The deal with the Cardinals sends away Syndergaard.
Maybe try to refresh your page.
check your cookies … make sure you’re not tossing them:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJJjycrT0RA&t=60s