Mike Trout was back in the lineup on Sunday after being hit in the hand by a pitch on Saturday. Arjun Nimmala just keeps on hitting home runs. The Angels re-signed Shaun Anderson to a minor league deal.
Photo credit: Rex Fregosi
Mike Trout was back in the lineup on Sunday after being hit in the hand by a pitch on Saturday. Arjun Nimmala just keeps on hitting home runs. The Angels re-signed Shaun Anderson to a minor league deal.
Photo credit: Rex Fregosi
Other FA of interest (for me):
– C, Tyler Stephenson. No idea how his defense, work with pitchers, etc are rated. But he’s a good-ish (for catchers) hitter.
– C, Ryan Jeffers. Copy and paste what I mentioned about Stephenson, but with a better platform year.
– C, Austin Hedges. Originally from Orange County. If we’re going all in on catching defense, leadership, etc., then this guy would have to be of interest. I have a feeling Cleveland will want to keep him as a backup, although I’m not familiar with their catching situation.
– 1B , Jake Bauers. Will he return to being a below average hitter?
– 1B, Luis Garcia Jr. He’s never hit as well as this year. He’s listed as a 2B on MLBTR FA list, but I think he’s a 1B?
– 2B/1B (?), Luis Arraez. I’d welcome some contact up in here.
– 2B, Jazz Chisholm. I’m borderline on this one. Don’t like his antics, have no idea how his defense is, and strikes out a lot. Pros: he hits 20+ HR and steals 30+ bases (40/49 this year).
– 2B, Brandon Lowe. He strikes out a lot. But also hits ~30 HR/year. Pirates don’t usually QO their players, but I’d only be interested in a short term deal, which I’m not sure is attainable here.
– 2B, Gleyber Torres. Steady, stats wont jump out at you but he’s a decent enough hitter.
– OF, Randy Arozarena.
– OF, Ian Happ. I could maybe get convinced.
– OF, Taylor Ward. Idk, maybe.
– OF, Daulton Varsho. Buy low option. Replaces Trout in CF (which absolutely should happen).
– SP, Dustin May, Freddy Peralta, and yes, Tarik Skubal.
Didnt have enough time to finish my above list because fam is waiting for me to go eat Pho, lol.
A few quick notes. This is by no means a deep dive. I like LHH. Ideal roster construction was not really considered. I’m not a Schanuel guy.
I don’t expect a huge haul of FA, though a haul led by baseball people who actually know what they’re doing would excite me very much. Most of the listed players, I am not familiar with their defensive abilities, which obviously matters.
I think this team can contend as soon as next year if the right buttons are pushed. No, I don’t want to mortgage the future for next season, or for the purposes of accelerating contention.
signing a QO guy is kind of a no-no for me unless it’s a stud. If the new CBA keeps the QO system, for me that would eliminate:
Jeffers
Jazz
Lowe (I know Pirates don’t but I think they might do it after giving up quite a bit for 1 year)
Randy
Happ
I know Skubal is a pipe dream, and pitching is our strength (funny to type that out), but signing him or Peralta or another starter would allow to move some resources to go get some hitters (especially with the FA market so weak)
Looking at who’ll be a FA soon, I was checking out Jake Bauers’ mlb page. His recent hitting stats are kind of hilarious.
Last 7 games: 143/538/357
Last 15: 211/483/368
Last 30: 273/476/443
This year in 426 AB: 270/397/493 with 24 HR.
Vs LHP: 271/387/508 (118 ABs)
Vs RHP: 269/401/487 (308 ABs)
He’s a LHH 1B. Next season he will be 31. He’s never hit like this before.
Can we get some of the Brewers’ pitching lab (and apparently) hitting lab up in here?
Can this lineup score against Sandoval?
Very happy to see Guzman, Moore, Mo Baller, Paris all starting. I don’t understand sitting Meckler against a lefty at this point in the season but whatever.
Man do we miss Schanuel or what. He played 132 games last season and is at 107 this season. An iron man he is not.
I just saw the promo at Angels website for today’s game. Under Defensive Runs Saved, everyone except Siri is negative. I guess all pitchers are much better than their record shows.
Can they score against Sandoval – The answer is yes. Will they score against Sandoval – The answer is no. At least not enough runs.
How many manager firings do you guys think there will be at the end of the year?
I’ll go with 5: Angels, A’s, Giants, KC, and STL.
Technically we don’t have to fire Suzuki. His one year contract will simply expire.
Pretty sure the Giants said they are sticking with their guy.
No way the Giants change managers.
Can’t see Marmol leaving either, they love him
I think it might be a pretty active firing season, I have 7: HOU, TOR, KC, SEA, SD, PHI and yours truly, LAA
Houston: maybe they let a new GM pick his guy, although firing a guy after making the playoffs is weird
TOR: can’t see why they would do that
KC/SEA: agreed
SD: could see it with a new owner
PHI: ya, Don is the interim, but if they make the playoffs and make some noise, I could see him sticking on.
Prospect chat over at fangraphs with Brendan Gawlowski, who covers the Angels.
Beginning “soon”.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brendan-gawlowski-prospects-chat-9-8-26/
Unrelated to Angels. Not sure how much it’s been talked about here.
What PCA is doing this year is amazing.
PCA MVP appears to be locked up. Ohtani has had health issues to allow PCA to separate.
Their offensive numbers are close and Ohtani was the best pitcher in baseball when healthy.
By definition Ohtani is still the most valuable player but I get it. We have become numb to his 2-way excellence.
Ohtani also was by far the most valuable player the year that Judge won it.
The voters don’t seem to care much about the two way thing.
Judge had one of the greatest single seasons ever. No shade to him whatsoever. Ohtani just happened to have the greatest single season ever. 2022 was an epic MVP race that history will look back very fondly of, and recognize the voters made the wrong choice.
I’m a Angel fan but Judge “destroyed” Shohei in every offensive category in 2022. Plus, broke the pre-steroid Roger Maris’s 61 home run mark and eclipsed 400 TB.
I’m unbiased when it comes to handing out awards, I would have voted for Judge as MVP in 2022.
Let’s do the math…
Average ERA in the majors this year is 4.17. Shohei has pitched 85.2 innings of 1.79 ERA baseball. That’s a difference of 22.65 runs.
PCA is on pace for ~17 defensive runs saved. So Shohei’s pitching has resulted in better run protection than PCA’s defense.
Now… if you use Sho’s FIP at 2.6, that’s just shy of 15 runs which would give PCA the edge.
Let’s do some reading comprehension. There’s a big fat capital ALMOST in there. As in 17 is almost 23. For a guys fielding to be that close in a value to a top three starter in the league? That’s nuts.
It’s tough, really is. By that definition, Ohtani would be MVP without really even excelling as no other player can boast a legitimate 2-way skill.
PCA has Shohei in every offensive category except OBB and BB (they’re close). PCA plays strong CF defense and Shohei pitches.
I think the award comes down to the offensive categories this year.
Subject: Broken Defensive Metrics (OAA, DRS, dWAR) — Anyone want to see the real clubhouse numbers?
I’ve been talking with some high-level baseball minds and front-office folks recently, and the consensus is clear: public defensive data is completely failing the eye test.
Every major metric out there has a massive structural blind spot:
To bridge this gap, I’ve been building a new dual-stat clubhouse framework that strips out positioning luck, applies strategic immunity for bad shifts, and actively grades double-play situational IQ. Under this model, Keith Hernandez scales to 24.8 true wins saved defensively. Applying this sensible math fixes his entire ledger, launching his career total from 60.4 WAR up to a staggering 83.9 overall WAR—vaulting him straight into what should have been HOF numbers.
We are also currently working to get our hands on proprietary, MLB-level spatial throwing accuracy data. Right now, public stats only track raw velocity (how hard a guy throws). We are targeting the raw camera tracking data that measures the exact sub-inch coordinate where a throw intersects the first baseman’s frame. This lets us calculate “True Flight Efficiency” (how quickly the ball actually gets there based on release and trajectory) and finally docks shortstops for erratic throws while properly crediting first basemen for saving errors with elite scoops.
Once this data is fully reviewed by their team, this framework might soon be deployed in the near future in a well-respected clubhouse—not ours.
While the entire body of work we’re putting together is going to be incredibly comprehensive, I would shorten it down significantly into a highly digestible, punchy summary for a post here on the forum. Right now, I’m just feeling out the appetite for this kind of data.
So here’s my question:
Would anyone here actually be interested in checking out a condensed breakdown if I put it together? Let me know.
This topic is finally getting some momentum in media and MLB staff. Good center fielders are getting crazy amounts of DWar while shortstops are being short changed. PCA is a really good center fielder but the numbers runs saved that he’s being credited for are silly.
Quantified metrics are only as good as the minds behind the programming and the eyeball test from baseball lifers is still relevant.
BTW: Bobby Gritch is agreat study as he was a defensive witch who did every small thing at an elite level and somehow got overlooked with lesser players making the HOF.
There are some crazy anomalies. It’s so eye opening. DRS has such a conundrum. If you are positioned perfectly in a shift at SS – and the ball is hit 108 mph right at you – you get no bonus in DRS. Bobby Witt’s 2024 season was not too high in DRS – but we currently have it as #4 all time season defensively at SS in Statcast era. (Our model is changing as we test through it. But I believe as it stands it’s more indicative of overall performance at a position. I don’t like positional discounting/bonusing in the formulas – as that’s about buying wins – not positional aptitude.) At first glance, first base seems the most messed up.
By the way Andrelton Simmons was freaky good. His top seasons are off the chart. Witt is not far behind. So is/was Andres Gimenez.
Freaky good is a good description. I so enjoyed watching him play D – hence choosing his nickname as my moniker.
We have 100 as average defender. At SS, Simmons 2017 season defensively we had as the all time high at 178, with his 2013 at 172. Witt 2024 at 158 and Tulo 2007 at 154. Simmons also had the 5th, 8th and 10th highest. Five of the top 10. A lot of guys put up a good season or two – he did it consistently. (We’re not done – so these are preliminary – but directionally pretty good. We’re also only doing Statcast ERA – but are working on an idea for non-Statcast years that will give interesting rankings. One huge thing – errors have gotten very scarce – there are so many balls that a coach expects to be an out that go down as infield hits – it’s crazy. Our tx-dWAR is not tied to Statcast years.)
I will do it – but it’s probably 45 days away – maybe longer if we get the additional data. I personally have found the observations fascinating. So here’s another interesting tidbit – DRS was changed in 2020 – but they only went back on data to 2013 on the change. Before the change in calculation they called PART – they used to give credit on balls hit right at someone in a shift – but they took that away. So many of these metrics are not comparing apples and oranges.
All we gotta do is go 8 and 10 over this last stretch of games and we’ve done it. We can kiss the very bottom of the urinal we’ve been collectively begging for ever since our evil step dad Arte wouldn’t buy us Adrian Beltre, get that 100 loss season under our belts, and jobs done. We will all feel so right this whole time!
Then we can start the climb up the mountain of goodness. Surely the problem all along was just Arte and now CtPG Guy won’t complain about every detail down to the color of the Angels shoe strings, CoachDad will stop fixating on pointless line up details, in game decisions, how stupid the manager is, and the grit of various players, and Secret Squirrel can stop chattering about the dark mysteries being kept from us all by the front office. It’s a new day in our chunk of America.
I know some folks are ready for StanK to just plop down a billion dollar payroll by January, hell I wouldn’t hate it all the way, but I am really hoping they get that FO shaped up, and then the FO keeps folks updated on kind of mundane stuff. I will be excited if they hire a few extra hitting instructors and analysts. If they announce upgraded food for the MiLB players. If pitching prospects are showing up at The Lab and we here that several new scouts were hired. THAT will mean we are building beyond a couple bloated contracts and it will be wonderful.
And, change the uniforms. That’s why the 100 losses matter. Hit that mark. Take those clothes off, and burn em. Screw the 2002 memberberry colored uniforms.
They should get alternate unis that are all black/gray/red/white…. Death Angels…. play Neorosis all night at the games…..
We’ve come this far with the tank, might as well finish the job!
Detmers vs Sandoval today should be a fun one
Angels have basically locked up top odds
Just remember the top 3 have the same chance at the top pick
Forsure! As other haves mentioned before, the worst record gives us the #1 pick in subsequent rounds as well top waiver priority.
Also would be funny to claim the league’s worst record in Arte’s final year
I have watched more Angels baseball since the sale announcement than I had all season.
Man. That offensive display in Pittsburgh was breath taking. I am really happy that the Angels young pitching seems to be holding up well.
Christian Moore kinda sucks. I’m not saying he’s washed or anything like that, he’s young and blah blah blah. But he’s striking out above 30% and what contact he does make is very polite. There was that one time he hit a double and stuck his tongue out. Some folks thought that was some cool shit. So we have that.
Moore is really talented. Granted it was in the PCL, but he had a .943 OPS this year and a .431 OBP. So he’s far from crap. But it’s pretty clear he has a soft head and gets the vapors at the MLB level right now. People who thought he was “blocked” by our infield chaff at the beginning of the year and should have been brought up sooner, etc are silly geese. I see him as the prime candidate for “Team Magical New Changes” coming to an angels org near you. Get him some coaching. He will have 200 ABs of MLB pitching to watch himself fail at. Get him in a lab. Simplify the mental stuff for him. I bet he’s got plenty of room to grow.
I still say we trade anything that isn’t tied down or under the age of 27 this winter if we can get a solid prospect return for them. Moore is an example. We need three prospects of his caliber to pan out one MLB player. And we need that at like five positions.
I hate the Dodgers. I’m glad Ohtani’s body is falling apart.
I don’t like to wish ill on anybody, but the Dodgers MVP’s look like they’re starting that age thing. (Pujols, Griffey, Cabrera and unfortunately Trout.) Not to mention the money thing that’s being investigated…
I can honestly say I did not see Tucker being this bad. I sort of wanted him tbh (but not at that price tag). Oops.
Reading some comments made by Cubs fans, they kind of saw this coming based partially on performance and especially effort level he showed while there.
I would give Moore a full, clean season to see what he can do.
I’m not sold one way or another if he’ll be a good hitter or not. I know he has contact issues, but I could see a 270/330/450 out of him. Maybe I’m crazy. .
I’ve read a few times he is unplayable on the dirt. The few times I’ve seen him on this most recent call-up, he’s seemed passable, even made a few plays I didn’t think he could. What have you seen from him there? There is a real black hole of offense at 2b in baseball right now.
I think if he is very good offensively they will let him stay at 2B but as soon as say Zach Neto needs to move he’s an OF. And yes, he really can hit, he just get eaten up in big stadiums. He just needs more work, so he’s not so overwhelmed… or at least he looks pretty overwhelmed.
But yeah, I think he can be an .850 OPS guy with a kinda high K rate if he gets it together. He’s just not there yet.
I wrote this back in March and stand by it.
the dude was a first round draft pick in 2024. He’d be in AA in most organizations but he’s already had 2 years of getting MLB time here.
Salt Lake City is horrible for evaluating players with swing and miss issues. They make contact on pitches that will be dipping and diving more at sea level. Really wish we’d move to a lower altitude location.