Breaking Down the Rebuild Part 3: Arms on the Farm

In the first two installments of this series, we looked at the roster turnover and the impact that will have on payroll and which position players are in line to replace players on their way out. In all, the Angels are set to lose 11 players currently making $105 million over the next two seasons. Two of those players are in the starting rotation and another four are in the bullpen. Their combined salaries for 2025 are just under $30 million.

Now we’ll look at the most promising portion of the Angels farm system, the pitching prospects. This is far cry from the Angels farm system of a couple of years ago and quite honestly would look a lot better if Ky Bush was still in the organization., Perry Minasian announced his intent to build up this portion of the farm with his all pitchers draft in 2021 and has prioritized acquiring arms in recent trades.

Let’s start with the starters.

Tyler Anderson $13 million ARV, 1.6 WAR/ season 95 ERA+: Tyler’s career had altered between good years and bad years. In total, he’s put up 3.3 WAR and a 95 ERA+ as an Angel over two seasons. If we’re looking to replace good year Anderson, Caden Dana is currently rated on every Top 100 prospect list I can find. Dana got a taste of MLB life last year that didn’t go well, but his overall body of work was excellent.

If we’re talking about Anderson’s average production, Jack Kochanowicz put up 0.6 WAR in 65.1 innings last season with an ERA+ of 105. That’s basically half a season’s workload so it translates to about 1.4 WAR over the course of 140ish innings. Jack’s strikeout numbers at the MLB level were extremely low but he doesn’t walk anybody and he keeps the ball on the ground. His K numbers in the minors were more decent than great, but he has a profile of a nice #4 pitcher. Jack knows he has an opportunity and looks poised to seize it.

Kyle Hendricks $2.5 million ARV no Angels Stats: Kyle Hendricks is a veteran at the tail end of his career who will hopefully be a decent fifth starter. He does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground and will hopefully produce better results than he did in 2024 but he’s not a top or middle of the order arm at this stage.

As pointed out above, Kochanowicz is likely going to surpass Hendricks in value as early as this season. Sam Aldegheri is also likely to be a decent back end option. Brought over from Boston at the trade deadline, Aldegheri flashed decent stuff in his brief MLB stint. More importantly, Sam showed significant upside across his minor league work as well. Across 85.1 innings on the farm he struck out 120 batters while issuing 37 walks. He’ll need to work on the walk rate but he only gave up 3 home runs so he keeps the ball in the yard.

Robert Stephenson $11 million ARV no Angels stats: Stephenson has had a mercurial career and was signed to be an integral part of the bullpen after a dominant second half of 2023 in Tampa Bay. He has really good stuff and was the best reliever in baseball for those months in 2023. Assuming Stephenson is healthy enough to become a solid back end guy, the Angels most likely replacement for him is Chris Cortez. The team is currently trying to stretch the Texas A&M product into a starter but you need two filthy pitches to be a quality reliever and Cortez has them. Playing in the SEC, Cortez recorded an incredible 102 K’s over 64.2 innings. He split time between starting and relieving and looked much better in short stints.

The Angels will also need to replace Brock Burke, Jose Quijada, and everyone’s favorite Jose Suarez over the course of the next two years. All of these men have reached the Major League level but none have had overwhelming success there. These guys are cost controlled but not really effective. Enter the pile of arms that might be starters, might be relievers, but do flash MLB potential.

George Klassen was another trade pickup last year. While he has the makings of a starter, he has the stuff to be at least a multiple inning reliever. Across 93 minor league innings in 2024 he racked up 135 K’s and sported a tidy WHIP of 1.18. Walks are still a bit of an issue and he just cracked AA, but he is on the club’s near term radar.

Chase Silseth lost most of last season to injury but looked good at the MLB level as recently as 2023. Like many on the board, I like him as a multi inning reliever/spot starter. He will be in Tempe and should be ready to go.

2021 first round pick Sam Bachman has also battled injuries and is currently slated as a starter. There was talk of him being a reliever pre draft and I still think that’s where he ends up. Perhaps he goes a couple of innings at the MLB level but he could likely slide into a key bullpen role as early as this season; preferably after building back to full health. Bachman flashed a sinker that could reach 102 MPH in college and his pitch mix was touted as nearly MLB ready.

And there were a couple of other Trash Pandas that pitched well enough to earn promotions last season. I’ve had my eye on Eric Torres for a while. He stepped back in 2023 but rebounded really nicely in 2024. Luke Murphy, my prospect crush of the 2021 draft, also rebounded after a rough 2023 and got back to the AA level.

A guy who is under the radar but could move quickly is Camden Minacci. He’s a little older for a prospect but the reliever from Wake Forest sports scouting grades of 60 for both his fastball and slider with 50 grade control. Another year like this one and he’ll be sporting red in no time.

In taking a look at the Angels top 30 prospects the emphasis on pitching is evident. There’s a lot of volatility with pitching so some of these guys will exceed expectations while others will flame out. There will also be more talent added over the next two seasons. With the second overall pick in the 2025 draft the Angels could take a premier college pitcher and really bolster this group.

Thus far, Minasian has done well on the trade front to improve the pitching as well. Take a look at last year’s acquisitions:

In all, the Angels have more potential replacements than open spots which is a great place to be. And the team has some versatile arms that could potentially be starters or relievers. With teams like Tampa Bay evolving the way pitchers are used in games, these hybrid type pitchers could provide solid value.

I’d imagine several of these guys get looks in Tempe, particularly early in camp. And I expect to see Kochanowicz and Silseth at the MLB level early this season with Aldegheri filling in for the inevitable injury. So the transition on the pitching side is already beginning.

What this group could provide is a cost controlled majority of the rotation and bullpen. A rotation of Kikuchi, Soriano, Detmers, Dana, Kochanowicz would likely cost less than the salary of just Corbin Burnes, for example. Perhaps the money saved buys a true ace, perhaps a bat. Granted, not all of these arms are going to pan out but the treadmill of signing multiple middle to back end pitchers each year should come to an end soon.

The same goes for the bullpen. Lately the Angels have generally shied away from big ticket bullpen pieces, but Stephenson plus another veteran will add up to $15 to $20 million per year. If a few of these bullpen arms work out, those funds should be available for either an elite closer or another need in the organization.

Subscribe
Notify of
19 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
RexFregosi
Super Member
17 days ago

Cam Minacci -can’t wait for him to be the closer – definitely some promise there.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend
Reply to  RexFregosi

Joyce, Minacci, SOMEGUY = 1990 Reds maybe? Hells yeah, that’d be fun.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend

I can’t STFU about how excited I’d be if the angels just ditched a “rotation” all together and went with a pile of long outing arms. we have so many guys just plain built for it RIGHT NOW. Guys who can be very effective one time through the order, mixed in with shut down guys who come in and put out a fire when trouble arises. Even Kikuchi and Soriano, statistically, are much better a little less than twice through an order.

How does that work?

An opener. You start a leverage arm, I’ll just say Crouse (if he is actually good) as an example. he handles the 1-4 hitters, outs or not. Then Kikuchi comes in and handles 5-9. Then he goes 1-9 again. Then you throw Klassen for 1-9. Then a mix of Bachman and Cortez to end the game unless you need Joyce to close.

You use about 18-20 pitchers per year throwing an average of 80-70 innings each to eat the 1465 or so innings you need per year. But they are almost all being seen for the first time by every batter every at bat. It’s totally doable and far easier to do with guys that have two dominant pitches but no third pitch. Of course, if you have a starter who is effective twice through a complete order then let him pitch longer.

The system has so many arms, more than we can even mention here, who fit this mold. A guy like Cortez or MDH could work in this system now probably and “lesser arms” like Kent gain in effectiveness because they can be used in contrast to hard throwers as the game moves along…..

It would be cool if I owned a baseball team. I’d totally do this. I like our farm a lot more than I probably should just based on this stupid idea….

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend
Reply to  Jeff Joiner

Thing is, over the course of the season, the numbers should work. In aggregate MLB hitters are basically Kevin Pillar in their 1st at bat against a pitcher and become Zach Neto by their 3rd time seeing that same pitcher in a game. At bat #2 is pretty much in between. Sure, there will be some games where we get beat leaving a guy in, but we get that now too. But in general, over a season, if we never let a pitcher get seen three times and a lot of times a hitter is back to AB #1 every time he steps to the plate we basically face “Kevin Pillar” all season.

That’s pretty winable and those numbers get better pretty fast if our pitchers have fairly low WHIPS for short stints. You basically manufacture “ace” level pitching by pitching “platoons”. You’ll suffocate a lot of teams more often than they bust you open for six runs in an inning.

Cowboy26
Legend
17 days ago

Interesting idea but Unfortunately Manfraud and his minions won’t let us carry more than 13 pitchers so not sure how we get through a homestand with that strategy.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend
Reply to  Cowboy26

You use guys when have minor league options and shuttle them. Like the Indians and Tigers did last year. When they are out of options you then decide if you want to trade or pay them.

Cowboy26
Legend
16 days ago

15 day option periods each time a pitcher is sent down and a pitcher cant be sent down more than 5 times in a season so that will be a whole lot pitchers shuttling back and forth from SLC

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend
Reply to  Cowboy26

Not really. You’d need to do it about ten times spread over about 5 pitchers… and that’s if you aren’t doing it to replace an injured pitcher. There have been a fair number of teams that do this, Doyers, Tigers, Rays, Guardindians….

FungoAle
Legend
17 days ago

From my eyes, would not be entertaining. Pay money to see Hans open up a game, ugh. Prefer to find the best long arms and go deep into games, then mix and match to get thru the final outs. To me, less volatile this way,

Last edited 17 days ago by FungoAle
gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend
Reply to  FungoAle

Sure…. if you can find 4 or 5 really good long arms. I’m sure we will actually do that at some point. Maybe we’re just one more year of yelling at Arte on the internet away from him spending 120M per year on the rotation….

Cowboy26
Legend
17 days ago

Here’s great article attempting to explain why Silent C’s 99 MPH sinker is such a bat magnet for hitters https://blogs.fangraphs.com/meet-the-man-who-couldnt-miss-a-bat/

Jimmuscomp
Trusted Member
17 days ago

I’m excited to see the young arms this year – I just really hope the GM and Arte commit to a year to see what we got. Adell, Schanuel, Dana, Silent-C, the Italian guy, etc.

I also hope they give Detmers 100 innings at least to figure things out. His stuff is clearly MLB worthy – he could be a legit front of the rotation starter.

Angelz4ever
Super Member
18 days ago

The Dodger’s Ryan Brasier is reportedly available via trade, but would it hurt us more than help?

Cowboy26
Legend
18 days ago
Reply to  Jeff Joiner

NFW Arte allows Perry to trade with the hated ones. Perry would have to wait and pick him up off of waivers

Angelz4ever
Super Member
18 days ago

Kind of sad that Torii Hunter Jr. couldn’t cut pro baseball. That would’ve been nice to see him in MLB (For us).

19
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x