So we will have 11 roster spots to fill. Which seems like a lot, hell it is a lot. But we have to remember that, in any given off season, a team has about 5 spots to fill/upgrade.
It’s also important to remember that our team does make money. Also, Arte is willing to spend up to around 200M. So if the roster needs can actually get down towards just those 5 players it’s not too tough a job.
THIS is why I really wish we’d adopt the Cleveland/Detroit/Tampa method of running a pitching staff. Lot’s of guys that can go one time through an order, only using long starters if they are actually effective etc. It’s easier to find a guy who can handle 9 at bats well than 18. If we take care of the bulk of our pitching roster spots this way by 2026 then it becomes much more feasible to just go get “an ace”. It also makes it easier to focus on holes in the line up.
A lot would be helped if Washingtons & Co really turn out to be good coaches. If Schanuel and Adell take another step forward it fills in some serious space in our needs pile. Even better if Neto isn’t hurt and Moore turns out OK.
We could literally fill some of those 11/105M roster spots for very little money and then make very focused upgrades via trade/FA.
If OF is Adell + Trout we’d need 2 more with one able to play CF.
If IF is Scahnuel+Moore+Neto we’d need at least a passable 3B or two utility guys who can play from there and platoon for above average OPS+ there.
If O’Hoppe stays above league average it’s a big bonus and we can just pay him and get backups.
DH will likely be Trout and some OF and FA combo… 2026 version of Grichuk. Not too hard to fill. Or a guy like Kavadas works out.
If we let just the kids we have now develop and we do it well it’s not like we have a huge FA mountain to climb in order to be fairly good. But we should get more prospects. Really try to develop Fontenelle at 3rd this year. And get prospects a lot of IP this year.
Nice primer Jeff. 1 note: I believe Stephenson is now signed through 2026 or will be shortly into 2025 season.
From BBRef – Team Option – option triggered only if Stephenson spends 130 consecutive days on the IL with an elbow ligament injury
I can just feel it some – “I hung up my cleats before wearing spikes” sportswriter is going to not vote for Ichiro and not share their ballot. Make them all public. My all-time favorite “active” players over my life were Mays, Bench, Ricky, Junior, Ichiro and MNT. (How all those guys weren’t unanimous is insanity)
Ward, Soler, and Rengifo will be the 3 hardest to replace cheaply. I have a hard time calling what we are doing any kind of a rebuild since we are continuing to maintain the same payroll and not trading non expiring assets. The only thing we haven’t done is sign a new expensive FA but essentially they are biding their time until Rendon goes off the books.
Really nice analytical work Jeff. There will be money to spend in 2 years. Hopefully we will have some cost controlled replacements. So far we have Neto, Joyce, Soriano, and hopefully O’Hoppe. We need 3-4 more position players.
Accept that they can still trade WarJifErson at any point. Soler too in July.
All they really did is add Kikuchi. Otherwise they are sticking to the plan pretty well through out the rotation and pen. Line up wise, even more so. Soler is the only heavy lift they got and he is gone soon.
As long as they actually intend to play young guys they are acting through inaction.
Acting through inaction is a good description. As I have said all along, they are waiting for Rendon’s contract to end. At this Point, Ward is the only non expiring contract, unless you count Soler, and if they trade those guys this year then you are correct. They are positioning them selves to do something after 2025. If they are moderately successful it will have taken them about 3-4 years. A lot has to go right in the next 2 years. They have to nail this draft and make some good trades. The big splash will be in 2027.
What’s the phrase, “No decision is still a decision” or something like that.
You’re right, a ton has to “go right” over the next 24 months – primarily with Caden Dana, Silent C, Silseth & Bachman.
We won’t know if we nailed the draft for a few years as the time horizon for success/failure is much longer than free agency. Speaking of which, the Stephenson contract was a fairly awful decision by Perry.
As I always say, I’m thankful to be a fan of MMA (UFC) because it deadens the pain of being a fan of (fill in the blank) sports ball team that stinks.
What’s the phrase, “No decision is still a decision” or something like that.
Rush: “If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.”
Breaking Down the Rebuild Part 1: Roster Turnover and Salary Reduction
For the second consecutive off season, the Angels have avoided the proverbial Arte Moreno big splash and apparently stuck to a plan of rebuilding. This is not a full scale tear it down to the studs rebuild as other teams have done. Arte and Perry seem intent on putting a somewhat competitive team on the field, which I appreciate as a fan of the team even if it might hinder the rebuild a bit.
While grasping the concept of a rebuild is one thing, looking at the franchise top to bottom reveals just how extensive of an overhauling this will be. And, just how quickly it might be done.
Part one of this series will focus on impending MLB level player turnover and the financial freedom that will bring. In subsequent pieces we will look at potential internal replacements and future free agent classes. For now, let’s take a look at what the Angels can completely control: letting contracts expire.
Spotrac.com is an invaluable resource for this exercise and all credit for the graphics goes to them.
Taking a look at the 2025 Angels roster, 17 of the 40 players have accrued enough service time to make free agency dates determined. Here they are. Now let’s look at the Top 11.
Free agent year indicates the season in which a player will be a free agent. So, barring extensions, after the 2025 season the team loses Kyle Hendricks, Luis Rengifo, and Tyler Anderson. That is a loss of three MLB level players and payroll savings after the 2025 season are a solid $21,375,000.
The real kicker comes after the 2026 season. In addition to shedding the anchor known as Anthony Rendon, the club also removes Jorge Soler, Robert Stephenson, Taylor Ward, Travis d’Arnaud, and Kevin Newman.
If we scroll further down the list, we see three more players who will depart after 2026:
The grand total of payroll saved after the 2026 season is a staggering $74,071,432 across 8 players. This is in addition to the $21,375,000 total coming this off season. In short, barring extensions, the Angels are set to shave over $105 million in payroll over the next two off seasons while losing 11 players at the MLB level.
That nets out to an average cost of a hair over $9.5 million per player and those 11 players will need to be replaced. Going by averages, the Angels are likely to get about 15 WAR this season from those 11 players, making the cost per WAR a reasonable $7 million. Yes, the math is impacted by Rendon accounting for nearly a third of the savings but this is where macro organizational building is key.
For every cost controlled player the Angels can plug into one of those spots, it frees up nearly $8 million in payroll capacity the first couple of years. It is imperative that Caden Dana or Silent C replicate or improve upon Tyler Anderson, for example, that frees up $12 million and some change. If Moore can replace or upgrade Rengifo, that saves $5 million.
Some of those savings will be mitigated by players like Reid Detmers, Zach Neto, and Logan O’Hoppe getting raises as arbitration eligible players. However, the vast majority of those savings could be available to supplement the growing young core.
I can not emphasize this enough, the payroll savings only exist if the Angels find cost controlled replacements for the majority of the 11 players they are set to lose. Continuing to need stop gap free agents will leave the Angels on their current carousel. Finding good, young players then adding the occasional A list free agent is the key to success.
The roster is set to turn over dramatically and the bottom line could improve dramatically if the Angels are able to find in house replacements for most of the 11 departing players. Drafting second overall in July and trading impending free agents for nearly developed prospects could help on that front. But make no mistake, how well the Angels replace these expensive players with quality cost effective players will determine if the Angels have better times ahead.
I think the team is in decent position to replace the arms, but what about the bats? We will look into that next time.