Breaking Down the Rebuild Part 2: Position Player Replacements

In part one of this series we took a look at the upcoming roster turnover and payroll implications. All in all the Angels are on track to lose 11 players over the next two years. Their current salaries amount to just over $105 million per year.

If the Angels are capable of replacing most of these players with cost controlled players of similar or greater value they are on the way to being a good ball club. If not they will continue to be on the mid tier free agent carousel needing to plug numerous holes on the roster and spreading money around rather than landing impact talent.

So let’s take an early look at who might replace whom in a couple of years. I’m going to use average FanGraphs WAR per season from 2021 through 2024 as the baseline for the production needing to be replaced and/or upgraded.

Anthony Rendon 0.3 WAR/season: Let’s start with the low hanging fruit. Outside of 2020, Rendon has given the Angels essentially no value while costing a ton of money. The most likely in house replacement is Cole Fontenelle, a switch hitter out of TCU with a good arm and questionable bat. If he simply plays good defense and hits anywhere near league average he’ll actually be a substantial upgrade. His power comes from the left side and he had a decent AFL showing after an injury shortened his AA season. The kid put up a slash line of .352/.437/.640 at TCU and an on base percentage of .405 in 98 at bats at the AA level last year so he has some talent. Cole is definitely worth following closely this season as he’s really the only hope the Angels have at the hot corner.

Taylor Ward 2.43 WAR/season: The most direct replacement is Matthew Lugo but he’s not likely to replace Ward’s value. However, there is a speedy centerfielder who compares nicely to Denard Span in the organization named Nelson Rada. The kid was in AA ball when he should have been going to his Senior prom. Most of his value is likely to come with the glove, but plus defense in center and plus running on the base paths will make up for a lack of pop. Span had several 3 and 4 WAR seasons with a slugging percentage that started with a 3. We’ll need to get pop somewhere else, but Rada in center moving Trout to a corner and DH is a likely scenario in two years.

Luis Rengifo 0.9 WAR/season: Rengifo of late has been a far better player than his 4 year average indicates. He’s a switch hitter who has been above average with the bat for a season and a half but draws low defensive grades. Christian Moore is the obvious pick to replace Luis. The Angels first round pick of 2024 crushed the SEC and slashed .375/.451/.797 for an absurd OPS of 1.248 from a second baseman. He hit the ground running in High A and put up a nice run in AA to close the year. Like Rengifo there are questions about Moore’s glove and long term fit at the MLB level, but I can’t wait to see this kid in Tempe and would expect him to put up WAR’s in the 2s and 3s shortly.

Kevin Newman 0.8 WAR/season: Utility guys are key in this game and if you can’t develop your own you end up paying a Kevin Newman a few million per year. Denzer Guzman will start the year as Rocket City’s shortstop and although he’s been on the younger side of most of his competition is showing improvement. He definitely brings a good glove and can play shortstop but needs more development if he’s going to make The Show.

Travis d’Arnaud 1.83 WAR/season: I really don’t like WAR for catchers but I set the criteria so I’ll stick with it. A guy like Travis brings value in game calling and helping pitchers that isn’t quantifiable. He also costs $6 million per year for what is expected to be a part time role. There might not be a direct transition to Dario Laverde but the 2022 international signee is a left handed contact machine with a solid arm. The kid turns 20 next month and will be 22 when Travis leaves. The Angels have another prospect in High A named Juan Flores who is actually a year younger than Laverde but isn’t rated as highly by most evaluators but does show some promise. Either way it looks like a stopgap of some length will be needed, but hopefully not for long. And the Angels top international signee this season was a catcher so there is emphasis on the position.

Jorge Soler 0.83 WAR/season: Soler’s value has been driven down by his complete lack of defense. Assuming he’s just a DH, the Angels have Nico Kavadas who also can’t play defense well and mashes the ball. There’s more strikeout in Kavadas game for sure but he’s young and just absolutely crushed the AFL. Most likely the replacement at DH is Mike Trout, but if we’re simply looking for walks and dingers, Niko is likely the guy.

It is important to remember the bust rate for prospects is extremely high so some or all of these guys will fall short of expectations. Obviously the more developed a player the lower that risk. So the Angels need to keep stacking talent to the point where they have 2 or 3 likely replacements for each departing player. Perry Minasian has two more drafts and two more trade deadlines to do just that.

The addition of Matthew Lugo last trade deadline is a good example of adding talent with an eye towards the near future. Adding a Jace LaViolette to the outfield mix makes it look a lot better, for example. As of now adding Tennessee’s third baseman Zane Denton in the second round looks like it would be a great addition. Perhaps the returns for Ward and/or Rengifo become their replacements.

Conversely there will be guys I didn’t name who exceed projections. Matthew Lugo might turn out to be a solid left fielder with some pop to replace Ward, for example. The bottom line is we still don’t know how these guys will fare but it is nice knowing we have some decent to really good hopefuls on the horizon.

There’s a lack of star power on the farm, perhaps outside of Moore, but there are some capable looking ballplayers. It seems like for far too many years we’ve been hanging our hat on one guy to come through and be the savior. We need about 20 to build a team.

It is also critical to realize we are replacing players on a bad team so we need the replacements to better the production of the departing players. A win added here, two added there, and hopefully some development from Nolan Schanuel and Jo Adell are all needed. This is very much a team game.

But in looking at average yearly production it doesn’t seem that difficult to do. Rengifo if healthy is probably a 2-3 WAR player and it is reasonable to think Moore will equal or better that production. Taylor Ward is a good player but plus defense by Rada in center field alone is worth nearly Ward’s entire production. And team building is about aggregate gains, not straight line replacement.

IF the Angels can pull this off, and that is no guarantee, there’s plenty of future to dream on.

Want to dream a bit? In two years we could see Trout LF/DH, Rada flashing leather and getting on base in CF, and LaViolette in RF. Or maybe spend a little early and slide the Rendon money to Kyle Tucker after taking the best college pitcher in the 2025 draft. There’s a lot you can do with $105 million if most of your team is cost controlled.

Most of the prospects listed here will start the year in AA. So if you are interest in the Angels future, follow the Trash Pandas a little closer than usual. Most of their games are on MLB.TV if you have it.

In the next installment we’ll talk pitchers and later some way too early scenarios. For now, how did I do? Any prospects you think I missed?

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2002heaven
Super Member
24 days ago

The problem is we don’t develop great players anymore. We develop scrubs and utility guys like Matt Thaiss and Chase Silseth. When you draft low ceiling college guys and no HS or Latin players.

RexFregosi
Super Member
24 days ago

Very informative series and great insight.

Looking at what we have and the ‘replacements’ is helpful but I don’t expect it to play out that we win the game of farm development in the near future. I hope we do but I want to get back to 90 wins and October playoffs now.

My take is is “The One Big Replacement and the Several Refinements”

my initial thought of the first article is that most all the players we ‘replace’ are likely going to be equivalent players and salaries to what is present now – Rengifo, Ward, Anderson are good MLB-ready players with favorable salaries – if/when they go, we will get pretty equivalent MLB players in return – same talent, same salary costs. My take is if we do replace the these MLB guys who can play in a line-up today, replacements will be equal to talent (WAR) and salary.

The Big Replacement is the crux here of this issue – it’s really about what is done with that Rendon money – if that is spent wisely, that can swing the direction very positively. That money is the difference maker.

Roy Hobbs
Super Member
24 days ago

As usual Jeff, great work. Appreciate the time investment to do this. We need optimists like you to keep us from tying ourselves to the train tracks. I believe the next couple of years are going to be repeats of last year with hopefully some breakouts. And we do have the draft this year and some fairly decent trade assets if we are savy enough to use them. It appears we have bodies to replace the players we are losing. It remains to be seen how good they actually are. It will be interesting to see where we sit and how things look one year from today. We’ll be watching Rocket City a lot this year. We need for some hitters to emerge. I have a question for you. What about Jo Adell moving to CF when Trout moves. Adell wouldn’t have to hit as well if he plays CF and it would open up RF for a middle of the order bat. This would be if he doesn’t improve substantially as a hitter. He may also be a good 4th OF. He runs well, is a plus defender, and hits for power. Just doesn’t make consistent contact. I think we’ll see Schanuel and Adell for the next 2 years regardless of what they do. I hope they don’t rush Fontenelle and Moore.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend

Some years down the line, though we’ll have some sense of their potential by 2027, I think Capri Ortiz could be really useful. He can field and throw from SS. He will likely have 80 grade speed. If they taught him some 2b/3b/CF? Even if he just hits .260 with a few home runs he’d be a great bench piece.

I’ve seen Randy De Jesus. I swear to gah, if ANY bat to ball skills click for that guy…. he’s fairly fast, he hits the ball VERY hard. He hits EVERYTHING like Vald. He’s got a good arm. If they can just get him to lay off bad pitches and make a little more contact he could be a AA break out guy by the end of the season. Could be a future corner OF for sure if he just gets the wood on the leather more…

But those guys are there, just in A ball.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend

Is there any way to judge how well these kids will develop while starving to death and sleeping on a tile floor? Cause there’s just no way any of these guys use their signing bonus to eat better and sleep in a bed and Arte is the wicked stepmother. That’s unpossible. Why hope?

AngelsFanInHell
Trusted Member
25 days ago

Great articles. Thank you.

Angelz4ever
Super Member
25 days ago

Good afternoon Halo faithful.

No Halos Alonzo press release yet?

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