In part one of this series we took a look at the upcoming roster turnover and payroll implications. All in all the Angels are on track to lose 11 players over the next two years. Their current salaries amount to just over $105 million per year.
If the Angels are capable of replacing most of these players with cost controlled players of similar or greater value they are on the way to being a good ball club. If not they will continue to be on the mid tier free agent carousel needing to plug numerous holes on the roster and spreading money around rather than landing impact talent.
So let’s take an early look at who might replace whom in a couple of years. I’m going to use average FanGraphs WAR per season from 2021 through 2024 as the baseline for the production needing to be replaced and/or upgraded.
Anthony Rendon 0.3 WAR/season: Let’s start with the low hanging fruit. Outside of 2020, Rendon has given the Angels essentially no value while costing a ton of money. The most likely in house replacement is Cole Fontenelle, a switch hitter out of TCU with a good arm and questionable bat. If he simply plays good defense and hits anywhere near league average he’ll actually be a substantial upgrade. His power comes from the left side and he had a decent AFL showing after an injury shortened his AA season. The kid put up a slash line of .352/.437/.640 at TCU and an on base percentage of .405 in 98 at bats at the AA level last year so he has some talent. Cole is definitely worth following closely this season as he’s really the only hope the Angels have at the hot corner.
Taylor Ward 2.43 WAR/season: The most direct replacement is Matthew Lugo but he’s not likely to replace Ward’s value. However, there is a speedy centerfielder who compares nicely to Denard Span in the organization named Nelson Rada. The kid was in AA ball when he should have been going to his Senior prom. Most of his value is likely to come with the glove, but plus defense in center and plus running on the base paths will make up for a lack of pop. Span had several 3 and 4 WAR seasons with a slugging percentage that started with a 3. We’ll need to get pop somewhere else, but Rada in center moving Trout to a corner and DH is a likely scenario in two years.
Luis Rengifo 0.9 WAR/season: Rengifo of late has been a far better player than his 4 year average indicates. He’s a switch hitter who has been above average with the bat for a season and a half but draws low defensive grades. Christian Moore is the obvious pick to replace Luis. The Angels first round pick of 2024 crushed the SEC and slashed .375/.451/.797 for an absurd OPS of 1.248 from a second baseman. He hit the ground running in High A and put up a nice run in AA to close the year. Like Rengifo there are questions about Moore’s glove and long term fit at the MLB level, but I can’t wait to see this kid in Tempe and would expect him to put up WAR’s in the 2s and 3s shortly.
Kevin Newman 0.8 WAR/season: Utility guys are key in this game and if you can’t develop your own you end up paying a Kevin Newman a few million per year. Denzer Guzman will start the year as Rocket City’s shortstop and although he’s been on the younger side of most of his competition is showing improvement. He definitely brings a good glove and can play shortstop but needs more development if he’s going to make The Show.
Travis d’Arnaud 1.83 WAR/season: I really don’t like WAR for catchers but I set the criteria so I’ll stick with it. A guy like Travis brings value in game calling and helping pitchers that isn’t quantifiable. He also costs $6 million per year for what is expected to be a part time role. There might not be a direct transition to Dario Laverde but the 2022 international signee is a left handed contact machine with a solid arm. The kid turns 20 next month and will be 22 when Travis leaves. The Angels have another prospect in High A named Juan Flores who is actually a year younger than Laverde but isn’t rated as highly by most evaluators but does show some promise. Either way it looks like a stopgap of some length will be needed, but hopefully not for long. And the Angels top international signee this season was a catcher so there is emphasis on the position.
Jorge Soler 0.83 WAR/season: Soler’s value has been driven down by his complete lack of defense. Assuming he’s just a DH, the Angels have Nico Kavadas who also can’t play defense well and mashes the ball. There’s more strikeout in Kavadas game for sure but he’s young and just absolutely crushed the AFL. Most likely the replacement at DH is Mike Trout, but if we’re simply looking for walks and dingers, Niko is likely the guy.
It is important to remember the bust rate for prospects is extremely high so some or all of these guys will fall short of expectations. Obviously the more developed a player the lower that risk. So the Angels need to keep stacking talent to the point where they have 2 or 3 likely replacements for each departing player. Perry Minasian has two more drafts and two more trade deadlines to do just that.
The addition of Matthew Lugo last trade deadline is a good example of adding talent with an eye towards the near future. Adding a Jace LaViolette to the outfield mix makes it look a lot better, for example. As of now adding Tennessee’s third baseman Zane Denton in the second round looks like it would be a great addition. Perhaps the returns for Ward and/or Rengifo become their replacements.
Conversely there will be guys I didn’t name who exceed projections. Matthew Lugo might turn out to be a solid left fielder with some pop to replace Ward, for example. The bottom line is we still don’t know how these guys will fare but it is nice knowing we have some decent to really good hopefuls on the horizon.
There’s a lack of star power on the farm, perhaps outside of Moore, but there are some capable looking ballplayers. It seems like for far too many years we’ve been hanging our hat on one guy to come through and be the savior. We need about 20 to build a team.
It is also critical to realize we are replacing players on a bad team so we need the replacements to better the production of the departing players. A win added here, two added there, and hopefully some development from Nolan Schanuel and Jo Adell are all needed. This is very much a team game.
But in looking at average yearly production it doesn’t seem that difficult to do. Rengifo if healthy is probably a 2-3 WAR player and it is reasonable to think Moore will equal or better that production. Taylor Ward is a good player but plus defense by Rada in center field alone is worth nearly Ward’s entire production. And team building is about aggregate gains, not straight line replacement.
IF the Angels can pull this off, and that is no guarantee, there’s plenty of future to dream on.
Want to dream a bit? In two years we could see Trout LF/DH, Rada flashing leather and getting on base in CF, and LaViolette in RF. Or maybe spend a little early and slide the Rendon money to Kyle Tucker after taking the best college pitcher in the 2025 draft. There’s a lot you can do with $105 million if most of your team is cost controlled.
Most of the prospects listed here will start the year in AA. So if you are interest in the Angels future, follow the Trash Pandas a little closer than usual. Most of their games are on MLB.TV if you have it.
In the next installment we’ll talk pitchers and later some way too early scenarios. For now, how did I do? Any prospects you think I missed?
Breaking Down the Rebuild Part 2: Position Player Replacements
In part one of this series we took a look at the upcoming roster turnover and payroll implications. All in all the Angels are on track to lose 11 players over the next two years. Their current salaries amount to just over $105 million per year.
If the Angels are capable of replacing most of these players with cost controlled players of similar or greater value they are on the way to being a good ball club. If not they will continue to be on the mid tier free agent carousel needing to plug numerous holes on the roster and spreading money around rather than landing impact talent.
So let’s take an early look at who might replace whom in a couple of years. I’m going to use average FanGraphs WAR per season from 2021 through 2024 as the baseline for the production needing to be replaced and/or upgraded.
Anthony Rendon 0.3 WAR/season: Let’s start with the low hanging fruit. Outside of 2020, Rendon has given the Angels essentially no value while costing a ton of money. The most likely in house replacement is Cole Fontenelle, a switch hitter out of TCU with a good arm and questionable bat. If he simply plays good defense and hits anywhere near league average he’ll actually be a substantial upgrade. His power comes from the left side and he had a decent AFL showing after an injury shortened his AA season. The kid put up a slash line of .352/.437/.640 at TCU and an on base percentage of .405 in 98 at bats at the AA level last year so he has some talent. Cole is definitely worth following closely this season as he’s really the only hope the Angels have at the hot corner.
Taylor Ward 2.43 WAR/season: The most direct replacement is Matthew Lugo but he’s not likely to replace Ward’s value. However, there is a speedy centerfielder who compares nicely to Denard Span in the organization named Nelson Rada. The kid was in AA ball when he should have been going to his Senior prom. Most of his value is likely to come with the glove, but plus defense in center and plus running on the base paths will make up for a lack of pop. Span had several 3 and 4 WAR seasons with a slugging percentage that started with a 3. We’ll need to get pop somewhere else, but Rada in center moving Trout to a corner and DH is a likely scenario in two years.
Luis Rengifo 0.9 WAR/season: Rengifo of late has been a far better player than his 4 year average indicates. He’s a switch hitter who has been above average with the bat for a season and a half but draws low defensive grades. Christian Moore is the obvious pick to replace Luis. The Angels first round pick of 2024 crushed the SEC and slashed .375/.451/.797 for an absurd OPS of 1.248 from a second baseman. He hit the ground running in High A and put up a nice run in AA to close the year. Like Rengifo there are questions about Moore’s glove and long term fit at the MLB level, but I can’t wait to see this kid in Tempe and would expect him to put up WAR’s in the 2s and 3s shortly.
Kevin Newman 0.8 WAR/season: Utility guys are key in this game and if you can’t develop your own you end up paying a Kevin Newman a few million per year. Denzer Guzman will start the year as Rocket City’s shortstop and although he’s been on the younger side of most of his competition is showing improvement. He definitely brings a good glove and can play shortstop but needs more development if he’s going to make The Show.
Travis d’Arnaud 1.83 WAR/season: I really don’t like WAR for catchers but I set the criteria so I’ll stick with it. A guy like Travis brings value in game calling and helping pitchers that isn’t quantifiable. He also costs $6 million per year for what is expected to be a part time role. There might not be a direct transition to Dario Laverde but the 2022 international signee is a left handed contact machine with a solid arm. The kid turns 20 next month and will be 22 when Travis leaves. The Angels have another prospect in High A named Juan Flores who is actually a year younger than Laverde but isn’t rated as highly by most evaluators but does show some promise. Either way it looks like a stopgap of some length will be needed, but hopefully not for long. And the Angels top international signee this season was a catcher so there is emphasis on the position.
Jorge Soler 0.83 WAR/season: Soler’s value has been driven down by his complete lack of defense. Assuming he’s just a DH, the Angels have Nico Kavadas who also can’t play defense well and mashes the ball. There’s more strikeout in Kavadas game for sure but he’s young and just absolutely crushed the AFL. Most likely the replacement at DH is Mike Trout, but if we’re simply looking for walks and dingers, Niko is likely the guy.
It is important to remember the bust rate for prospects is extremely high so some or all of these guys will fall short of expectations. Obviously the more developed a player the lower that risk. So the Angels need to keep stacking talent to the point where they have 2 or 3 likely replacements for each departing player. Perry Minasian has two more drafts and two more trade deadlines to do just that.
The addition of Matthew Lugo last trade deadline is a good example of adding talent with an eye towards the near future. Adding a Jace LaViolette to the outfield mix makes it look a lot better, for example. As of now adding Tennessee’s third baseman Zane Denton in the second round looks like it would be a great addition. Perhaps the returns for Ward and/or Rengifo become their replacements.
Conversely there will be guys I didn’t name who exceed projections. Matthew Lugo might turn out to be a solid left fielder with some pop to replace Ward, for example. The bottom line is we still don’t know how these guys will fare but it is nice knowing we have some decent to really good hopefuls on the horizon.
There’s a lack of star power on the farm, perhaps outside of Moore, but there are some capable looking ballplayers. It seems like for far too many years we’ve been hanging our hat on one guy to come through and be the savior. We need about 20 to build a team.
It is also critical to realize we are replacing players on a bad team so we need the replacements to better the production of the departing players. A win added here, two added there, and hopefully some development from Nolan Schanuel and Jo Adell are all needed. This is very much a team game.
But in looking at average yearly production it doesn’t seem that difficult to do. Rengifo if healthy is probably a 2-3 WAR player and it is reasonable to think Moore will equal or better that production. Taylor Ward is a good player but plus defense by Rada in center field alone is worth nearly Ward’s entire production. And team building is about aggregate gains, not straight line replacement.
IF the Angels can pull this off, and that is no guarantee, there’s plenty of future to dream on.
Want to dream a bit? In two years we could see Trout LF/DH, Rada flashing leather and getting on base in CF, and LaViolette in RF. Or maybe spend a little early and slide the Rendon money to Kyle Tucker after taking the best college pitcher in the 2025 draft. There’s a lot you can do with $105 million if most of your team is cost controlled.
Most of the prospects listed here will start the year in AA. So if you are interest in the Angels future, follow the Trash Pandas a little closer than usual. Most of their games are on MLB.TV if you have it.
In the next installment we’ll talk pitchers and later some way too early scenarios. For now, how did I do? Any prospects you think I missed?