Perry Minaisian continues to be aggressive and this week he got to work early. Boras Mouthpiece Jon Heyman was the first to report the deal.
The Japanese lefty will take home a reported $63 million over the course of three years and adds tantalizing upside and a history of uneven results. Kikuchi was simply dominant after being traded to Houston last year and was solid and sometimes spectacular with Toronto in the year and half prior to the trade.
A quick look at his baseballsavant page shows he has elite swing and miss stuff. The Angels are hoping that elite stuff delivers elite results.
There’s certainly some risk with this signing but among the second tier free agent pitchers Kikuchi likely offers the most upside as well.
The risk is evident in his career ERA+ of 91. He’s also coming off consecutive years of establishing new highs for innings pitched and he’ll turn 34 in June.
The upside shows in his peripherals. He’s struck out over a batter per inning for two years running, his walk rate is well below average, and his four seam fastball is a plus pitch.
As of today, the rotation likely looks like Kikuchi, Jose Soriano, Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz with Reid Detmers, Caden Dana, George Klassen, and Davis Daniel as depth in AAA.
More Hopium
https://x.com/FoulTerritoryTV/status/1861409579680309300
https://twitter.com/TaylorBlakeWard/status/1861162683716002011
Scoreboard.
https://x.com/BeyondTheHalo/status/1861204100530217206
I wouldn’t call that encouraging by any means… but maybe also not damning? Halos must have been aware. I wonder if ballpark deviations are one of those things evaluators are usually comfortable ignoring? (Hell, maybe he has a mistress in OC… or lack thereof.)
Or maybe his wife likes to go with him on those West Coast Road Trips ?
At least someone likes our newest acquisition .
https://x.com/MLBNetwork/status/1861186604393763147
The main problem with Arte is that he doesn’t think we are rebuilding or doesn’t see the need to. As long as he signs a few FAs and doesn’t trade away any MiLB talent (i.e. Dana or Jack) we can still rebuild. Rebuilding unfortunately also means that Neeeeefo and Ward need to be traded ASAP for something for the future-There is an alleged interst for Neeeefo from Milwaukee, but who knows? The problem is Arte thinks we are “One or two players away” from competing and that is simply untrue.
While I hear and understand the frustration about Kikuchi’s signing, I at least don’t want to routinely see opposing team’s Rule 5 pitcher with a 9.89 ERA tossing the last couple of innings to our team when we’re down 8-1. Have you ever noticed there were a lot of occasions last year when we didn’t even see the opposing team’s closer all series?
It builds character to have a horrible team for a little while. We’d be better for it in the long run, rather than Arte spending just enough for us all to complain about the spending while we finish third.
Besides. a couple more years of ick and all our complaining from the last twelve years will finally be qualified. We’ll officially be longsuffering fans instead of just fans who declare we are longsuffering.
I had long held out hope for Arte, but now I really hope he just sells the team.
We do about as good a job as any group of people ever has at over rating how important ownership is. It is important, to be sure, but it’s not the end all be all we screech about here.
The Ricketts own the Cubs, who are worth a whole lot more than the Angels. They are frustrating as fk. The A’s are owned by more money than Arte and were in a major market with money. The Orioles were owned, till this year, by an asshole and still got good. The Yankees are actually run pretty shitty but have the money to buy their way out of it most years. The Giants have a ton of money and a “good ownership group” and are a shit show. The Braves are owned by a corporation for gahzache. The Brewers owners are cheap asses and they win a ton…. ownership performance, unless you are looking at the DoYkees, is pretty all over the place.
There’s no reason Arte can’t stumble upon some players that actually stay healthy and perform. Some prospects that work out, etc. He at least has the resources to pay players and spends them. There’s always hope as long as an owner will cross about 180M in payroll.
BUT there’s also nothing wrong with Arte going away. It would be fun to see a new group. See how they work, etc since the above will apply to them too.
But there will likely still be plenty to complain about with NewOwnerz the Unicorm too.
It builds Character for the players or for us fans?
Cuz I for one have had enough character building to last a life time with this team.
We should be skyscrapers of character.
Fans. The players can just leave.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6d_wxEz1Cbg
I have received 2 emails today from The Angels marketing department about ticket packages. So, Kikuchi should have a banner out front within the next few weeks.
Could it be any more obvious?!
Maybe Ward and Neeefos banners should be mounted with Velcro?
well considering that sandy’s banner was still up there last week when I visited the Big A I’m sure they were waiting for this replacement.
Hypothetical tagline: “Angels ink Burnes & Snell for multi-years”
Halo fans: “That’s a Helluva lot of money for two players!”
It all depends on the budget. If it’s $200m total then that move never happens and, if it did, tied the Angels hands for years. It’s very much budget dependent. IF the budget is 30% higher than that then it’s something else. If it’s $300m it’s something else altogether. You are looking only at the players and not considering the budget.
Yeah. But feeling like your owner and GM are “SAHREEUS BOUT COMPETE AND CHAMPIONING WITH GRIT AND I HATE MONEES!” for two or three days…. priceless.
In the end, signing a FA usually means that it allows a little more maturation in the minors. In the case of the Halos MiLB system (Which appears to be starting on an upswing) no FA signing is going to “Block” someone from being promoted to the bigs.
1 year – Yay!
3 years – Boo!
I guess this is the increased payroll we heard about and now it’s pretty much used up.
Yup and not really happy with Soler or Kikuchi. I think on paper this makes us better than last season but not by much. I still see this team struggling to get to .500.
As long as they help others to stay down on the farm a bit longer I am okay with some placeholder signings.
3 years is a lifetime
True, but if he holds up…
Doubtful they even sniff .500 as currently constructed. Maybe 66 wins
Assuming the $200 million we used for the Perry pieces, we had $32 million before non tenders and trades. Canning, Sandoval, Thaiss, and Burke were jettisoned creating about another $14 million.
So assuming $46 million available: $21 here, $13 Soler, then Newman, Hendricks and d’Arnaud and we are already above that.
So no need for IIWPM pieces unless we presume a higher budget.
There. FIFY
If they go right up to the limit. They have about $38.9M if you include payroll and arb per spotrac. They still need pitching, both SP and BP.
We probably need some kind of OF too….
I think that’s the question – is Moreno willing to get payroll up near the luxury tax limit again to try to field a wild card contending team this year or next?
I really have few complaints about high AAV contracts if they don’t come with draft/prospect capital or 4+ years attached (3 year contracts are right on the threshold of pain and promise – just short enough to be tradeable at the deadline in many cases).
But if the billionaire owner wants to drop $30M+ on a one or two year gamble, it’s not my money, so go for it. It’s the unnecessary years and forfeited draft picks that kill us.
But we really don’t know what Arte’s mental budget Rubicon is this season.
Budget is a key part of the analysis. This signing is less terrible with a $250m budget+ now and over the next 3 seasons in my opinion. But if the budget is closer to $200m it’s a terrible signing.
The other part is signing an innings eater with an ERA of about 4 is fine if you are the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros or some other team (Rangers??) with high quality hitting that will score 5-8 runs often. You have a guy that if consistent can win games. For the Halos and their offense, they need better pitchers like Eovaldi or Buehler to move the needle.
If the goal is playoffs or close then you have to pay the tax in 25 and 26. Rendon is off the books for 27 season. As is, this team is well behind Hou Sea, and Tex. They should stick to deals 3yrs or less to help reset payroll and repeater tax
$200M for 70 wins.
All hail Perry, the bestest GM in all the land!
If the Angels took half of what they’re paying Kikuchi and invested it in the front office and minor league coaching staff, you’d end up with more WAR in the long run and a better team overall.
The Angels have invested all they can in the front office and MiLB coaching staff. The Halos need to scout & develop international talent better and avoid Rendone and SHamilton types of contracts.
The Halos spend middle of the pack but end up with bottom of the pack records-That’s what they have to reconcile.
Seems like it is the money people have issues with. Price of pitching is not cheap, and the later SP signings will blow these numbers out of the water. I like this move.
Money and number of years – particularly with the budgetary constraints we have seen.
Unsure what to feel about this acquisition.
Pros: Very durable innings-eater with strong peripherals and demonstrated upside. The Angels preserve their second rounder in a solid draft class, with their best draft position in a decade.
Cons: Kikuchi is every bit as volatile as Detmers and Sandoval at a much higher price point, and will cause plenty of stomach churn over the next three years. He also carries some extra risk given where he sits on the age curve.
Time will tell. At this point, I’m more covetous of the draft picks than anything else, and glad the team has a good amount of major league depth, even if little of it projects as frontline material.
This is exactly how I feel about the signing. It’s an overpay and if they’re going to spend that much on an SP then I would have much rather seen that money going to someone like Burnes or Snell.
Snell has stated he wants to win and will join a team that is already loaded. Burnes will cost a draft pick and he will join a team that is already loaded. Those two are clearly better, agree.
Yeah, wanting to join a winner will also preclude signing with the hapless Halos.
The Haplos
Burnes will cost more per year and for at least twice as long. Snell will require more per year as well.
So, Kikuchi plus Soler and d’Arnaud vs. just Snell or just Burnes?
If we were a more complete team, I’d take just Burnes every day. But we aren’t.
Ok, Fried, Eovaldi or Flaherty would have been better options than Kikuchi.
I’d love Fried. I bet he stays in the East, but I really like him.
I think I’d have the same reaction to Eovaldi but understand why you and others would prefer him. More health risk but also more stable results.
Flaherty is a guy we both like. But he’s not without risk, either.
I prefer Flaherty and Evo too over Kikuchi. They have the arm and a good post season record where you would feel comfortable having them pitch Game 1. Evo is a warrior.
Contrast that postseason aspect to Fried where he has failed miserably. 2-5 with an ERA of 5.10 over 20 appearances.
Flaherty is still a possibility my friend.
No worries I’m sure we can pick up one of these ace type pitchers for the playoff push next trade deadline.
Fried and Flaherty are projected to cost much more (at least twice as much in total value). I agree that they’re better bets though.
MLBTraderumors (which was very close on Kikuchi) has Eovaldi at 2/$44. I think I have more confidence that Eovaldi will be good than Kikuchi, but that Kikuchi would be more durable. I’d have a similar meh reaction to both.
The upside on this is that the Astros unlocked another gear for Kikuchi. The downside is that this is the Angels here, so he’s doomed.
Yeah but they would be worth it over Kikuchi imo and younger too.
I don’t even think it’s an overpay – it’s exactly what the Athletic and MLBTR predicted for Kikuchi. Three years, $20-21M per. It’s basically the market rate for a pitcher who has averaged 3 WAR over the past two seasons.
For the Angels, it’s just more a question of where they place limited resources, and whether they can run out the clock before Kikuchi suffers and age-typical injury that puts him on the shelf for a bit.
Burnes or Snell would’ve took that much for two seasons, which they would ever sign for.
WTF? “If we’re gonna spend the money on a player we don’t need yet why not spend 30% more on a player that will be an even bigger waste while making the team slightly better bad?”
But the most important thing is that Arte stop doing stupid shit right?
That’s funny. Spending more money on a player that will give you better #’s for a longer period is a “bigger waste”. Getting someone like Burnes, Snell, Flaherty, or Fried would have been a much better investment than what they paid for Kikuchi. Arte and Perry still doing stupid shit – nothing has changed and nothing will change until both of those clowns are gone.
Said FA pitcher being better than kikuchi is not the issue.
OK. So the way this works is that Corbin Burnes, for example, will get a six year 200M contract. He is currently 30. The Angels are far from being a single Burnes away from the play offs. Probably even two Burneses would do it because our line up is crap and our bullpen is a gamble.
So, if you sign Burnes, all he does is hold hands with a fan like you for three years while the team still sucks. He collects 33.3M a year, the team finishes 3rd, you complain, but at least you get to watch Burnes pitch every 5 games while the team tries to rebuild.
Often times the team fails to rebuild, but even if they pull it off and are really competitive in three years Burnes is a 33.3M payroll burden at age 33-34 on a team that likely wants to extend guys like O’Hoppe and Neto and also needs to trade for a new ace now that Burnes is old but can’t.
So now you need a Unicorn owner that is willing to take it in the shorts and go over the tx limit for a few years…. again and again….
So yeah. The idea of “You might as well have signed Burnes” is funny. Like a panda bear with it’s head stuck in a bucket slowly starving to death.
It’s like if I bought the 72 Ynko Nova I want right now with no money to maintain it, a tree lined street in a shitty neighborhood to park it on, and no place to work on it. The cars great. Me owning right now is not. In a couple years, it may be a good idea.
I’m not for the idea of signing any SP to a multi-year deal that is 20+mil as the team is now. I do not like this signing because its going to have little to no impact on how this team performs in 2025. My point is – IF you’re going to make idiotic move like this to throw 60+mil on an SP for 3 years then the money would have been better spent on another FA SP rather than Kikuchi. If they had signed Burnes or Snell, yes it would have been a better investment but it would have done absolutely nothing to change the team’s outcome in 2025. We’re still gonna finish below .500.
Same here.
No matter which second tier starter we got I think there would be pros and cons. In this case, I understand the upside play but can’t overlook the middling track record.
More commentary:
https://x.com/MLBNetworkRadio/status/1861046879976648882
Talking heads talking about the signing:
https://x.com/MLBNetwork/status/1861120669934854589
“Arte never spends money on starting pitching!!!”
{Arte signs a starting pitcher}
“No! Not that one!!”
If the Halos would’ve signed Juan Soto, Teoscar Hernandez, Burnes and Snell, some Halo fans would say, “What about 3B or 2B?
You keep making this same point. You are wrong. You are looking only at the players and not the broader concerns of spending all of this money with budget constraints and a very weak farm system. Your commentary looks only at the players (and I would still likely argue against Kikuchi from a player acquisition standpoint) but does not consider the impact on the budget.
So if the budge Is unlimited then sure sign all those guys. Spend spend spend. But if the team is operating under significant budget restraints and is leaking due to all of the holes – then this signing makes zero sense.
The equivalent would be a boat owner who invests all his available money on a new propeller for a boat that is sinking due to holes in the hull.
By signing FAs you enable your farm to develop. The Dodgers (Bile rises) didn’t develop their entire WS Championship team, many were/are FAs from other teams, subsequently their farm products were able to marinate and be rushed up to the majors.
If we had a 1B worth a D@mn Schanuel could’ve developed more and possibly been better coming up in 2024 or 2025. We can develop MiLB talent, wait out Rendone’s contract and be competitive in 2025 or 2026, if cards are played right.
this works fine as long as you can eventually have 4 DHs at one time.
Facts in the article, option in the comments:
This is a very Angels move; signing a guy coming off a great year or half year and hoping for that to continue. When you are bad you need some gambles to pay off. But also, you are likely bad because you made some bad gambles.
$63 million over three years is a bigger gamble than I’d personally take at this stage of a rebuild, but of all the second tier pitchers I see Kikuchi as the one most likely to have an ace type season or two over the next three years. These guys are in the second tier for a reason and Kikuchi’s is consistency, not stuff.
Could the Angels conceivably have a good 1-2 in Kikuchi and Soriano? It wouldn’t surprise me a bit. Nor would serious regression.
At this point Tyler Anderson looks like a bargain, though, and I’d like to trade him for a AAA level bat and sign Saguno to replace him.
I agree with this analysis. It’s a slight overpay compared to some media outlets, but the big ones (fangraphs, bleacher report, mlbtraderumors) all pegged Kikuchi at a 3 year deal between $51 and $60 million.
I’m neither exited nor angered by the move. I’m hoping for some competence to take pressure off the younger pitchers and the bullpen so they can properly develop.
I’d be OK with trading TA. I wonder when his value would be at its maximum. Is it now, after free agents have settled, or closer to the deadline?
But can our newest Japanese pitcher coexist on the same pitching staff with an even newer Japanese pitcher?
Per the Simulator Tyler Anderson’s trade value is 1.5 which is to say it is essentially zero.
….but you’re sayig there’s a chance?
That doesn’t surprise me since his salary basically matches expected performance. The halos could pay for some salary to buy prospects. It also seems like waiting to see if demand increases closer to the beginning of the season or at the trade deadline.
it feels like they’re building a team that could be competent if Trout were healthy ( I dont expect that) by getting competent (but unspectacular) people to plug into slots. The rotation won’t be awesome, but could be OK. If the rotation can take some pressure off the bullpen, that would help,the bullpen. Kikuchi is weird because there have been times he’s dominated and other times when he’s almost unplayable.
Do you think Saguno is an upgrade over Anderson? They seem comparable… crafty veteran inning eaters…
“ $63 million over three years is a bigger gamble than I’d personally take at this stage of a rebuild”
I like that you think we are rebuilding.
What in the actual F
This is fking stupid. I don’t mind Kikuchi himself. Sure, he may crash and burn but so does almost every pitcher now days.
3 years/63 million? Now. Why? This is like buying a cripple a solid pair of hiking boots. Nothin wrong with the cripple or the boots, but they are largely wasted on each other.
This move is either pissing away a fairly large chunk of payroll to keep old men feeling like “maybe there is a chance before I croak” or Arte really is in his own cult and thinks that we are just one semi-meh “ace” away from going toe to toe with the big boys.
Maybe we’ll luck out and everyone will “career year” us into the play offs this year or next. But as far as actually building something this is a wet fart. Teams like Baltimore are gonna be taking our lunch money for a long time to come if this is how we “reload” instead of “rebuild”. Even if Arte wants to bump payroll to $250 M it’s not gonna make us a long term contender all the sudden.
And yeah dummy. I know. It’s just three years. Did you like that Tyler Anderson contract? Never complained about it once? Then cool. Otherwise you better be pissed as fk about this contract because it’s almost twice the money for three even more pointless years. Folks around here were all torn up inside over the money tied up in that mighty mighty Tyler Anderson contract…. well, here you go. Slightly better TA with Japanese flavor.
If anyone wants to give me their weak ass explanation for why this signing’s a good idea but Tyler Anderson was an egregious move by cheap Arte and stupid Perry please feel free to two finger type it out.
Agree, this makes no sense. Feels like a massive overpay for someone with a career ERA over 4.5, all because he had two good months with Houston. Such a classic Angels move.
The only silver lining is it feels like for the first time in forever, we have actual starting pitching depth in the minors and call-ups due to injury may not be devastating. Detmers, Klassen, Dana, Silseth.
This is primarily about Arte thinking he can compete, obviously. And if Perry has any hopes of competing, lots of guys need to have career years or close to it.
Ideally this keeps Detmers out of the starting rotation so he can get right and leaves a veteran on the staff after this year to help stabilize the youth movement.
To me, Detmers is the biggest mystery of last season. First six games were outstanding, and then a cliff. AAA was bad, too. If we could get 3/4 of the good Detmers for a whole season this signing wouldn’t be needed, imho. Let’s see if a pitcher or two get traded mid season.
Somebody remarked this morning about Canning being mediocre with flashes of brilliance and the first thing I thought of was that Detmers alternates flashes of brilliance with flashes of terribleness.
Detmers is simply too good to be as bad as he’s been at some times.
I don’t know what is going on with him, but he could dramatically reshape how we view this rotation and team if he pitched up to his capabilities on a regular basis.
I see this and I wonder where the flashes of terribleness are coming from. Right handed batting, I guess.
https://bsky.app/profile/pitchingninja.bsky.social/post/3lbhj4pnhss2n
Yeah well at least we are not losing a draft pick.
He’ll be useful at minimum with the potential to be top-of-order. He’s being paid as such. Why the grousing? Unless… you think his contract will restrict a future FA signing? I guess that’s possible, but Cease/Gallen and other elite 2026 FAs will be much like this year’s. They’ll all want 5-to-7-year deals and Kikuchi’s contract isn’t really that onerous in the big picture.
Honestly it’s neither the money nor the player. It’s the innings he’ll pitch. We have signed this guy to pitch bulk innings to make us what? A just under .500 team? I’d rather give innings to kids, half of which will suck, and get the pain over with. Now we’re back on the road to always having a solid pitcher, a meh pitcher, and a bunch of crap with no answers while kids leave our system and do well in Cleveland or Detroit.
JUST ACCEPT THAT WE SUCK and we’re gonna have to cycle through a bunch of young arms. Having Anderson/Hendricks/Kikuchi around making us ultra vanilla 4.00 ERA doesn’t help us but it does mean we won’t be looking at Aldegari type guys as much. Not to mention we could have gotten most of what these guys can give us from doormats like Canning or Brad Keller for 4M a year or less.
I think this is a positive step for the rotation, but I wish the team hadn’t signed another over-30 pitcher that just had his most successful season. Of course, that’s preferable to hoping for a bounce back after having his worst season.
Well, this is something different… pitching help. Yay!