What Do The Angels Have in Jack Kochanowicz?

When and if the Angels rebuild into a contending club will depend largely on the development of a pitching staff. 2024 saw the MLB debuts of several Angels hurlers, including Jack “Silent C” Kochanowicz who was largely impressive in his 65.1 MLB innings.

In looking at the bottom line numbers, Jack put up an ERA of 3.99 across his 11 starts, good for 5% better than league average by ERA+ standards. Looking at his game scores, where 50 is average, Jack put up 48.89 across his final 9 starts. So, he was right about average.

How did he put up those baseline numbers? He walked 10 of the 266 batter he faced but only struck out 25 of them. In short, he was the definition of the soft contact pitcher as illustrated by his baseballsavant.com page below. Pitching to contact allowed him to pitch 7+ innings in 4 of his last 9 starts and 6+ in all but one of those appearances.

Before we get to the pitch data, let’s take a look at his larger body of work in AA this season. Kochanowicz hurled 102 innings for Rocket City, meaning he topped 167 total innings this season. Jack posted a 4.50 ERA at the AA level while both walking more batters (2.4 per 9 innings) and striking out more hitters (7.2 per 9 innings) than he did at the MLB level.

So, he either really pounded the strike zone at the MLB level or the hitters are just that much better. Perhaps a bit of both. Either way, he posted game scores of average to above average in more starts than not, generally went pretty deep into games, and could see improvement in 2025.

Let’s take a look at that baseballsavant.com page and see if it tells us anything.

The good, he has good fastball velocity, limits walks, and gets a ton of ground balls. The bad, is he gives up a lot of hard hit contact which lowers his expected ERA and BA.

What lies in between is his chase rate which is right at league average. So guys chase his pitches, but they don’t strike out. Jack rates among the worst in the game in strikeout percentage.

The trio of above average velocity and league average chase rate plus dismal strikeout rate is perplexing and is likely the result of under using his good four seam fastball. When used effectively, it generates plenty of swing and miss.

But the four seamer is the third most commonly used pitch by Silent C, who throws it only 7.2% of the time. However, the heater generated a 36.4% whiff rate so it was effective. Also effective was his curveball that generated whiffs 25% of the time but was only thrown 18.4% of the time.

That 98 percentile ground ball rate is due to Jack’s sinker which he threw 72.4% of the time. This led to his incredible ground ball rate but it did get hit fairly hard, so the ground out conversion rate could fluctuate a bit start to start. Not all grounders will find an infielders glove.

All in all, I think with a less predictable pitch mix, we could see Kochanowicz turn into a perfectly adequate MLB pitcher in line with his total body of work. His K rate should go up by increasing the use of his four seam fastball and curveball and the sinker likely gets hit a little softer when hitters can’t just sit on it.

For example, Dan Haren was able to become a respectable strikeout pitcher with a whiff rate in the 5th percentile. Yes, that is end of career Haren but he was quite effective at that stage. The similarities between Kochanowicz and the tail end of Mark Buehrle’s career are substantial, as well. Neither of those two had Jack’s fastball, but both pitched very well to contact and were solidly effective.

Jack is young enough to reasonably replicate his 160+ innings of work next year. If he can get that K/9 number up just a touch, he could be a solid middle to end of the rotation option for years to come. The fact I love watching guys pitch to contact and get quick outs is a bonus. While there is risk the contact becomes harder and the results get worse, I do think there’s more upside with Jack next season than downside.

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Rallymonkey5
Member
3 months ago

I love watching pitcher succeed by throwing strikes, pitching to contact, and getting weak contact outs. I don’t have much confidence that in today’s game you can have consistent success with such a low strikeout rate.

Fortunately he has great velocity, so there’s a chance he can turn into a strikeout pitcher. He doesn’t need to be Nolan Ryan, just needs to get some strikeouts, maybe 6-7 per game.

I think of Kevin Brown when he first came up. Great fastball. Between 1991 and 92 he figured it out, strikeout rate jumped from 4.1 to 5.9.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend

I think that, coaching gods made happy, a sinker baller like Jack could be really effective. In an “up” year really good. Think right handed Sean Manea from this past season. If he can sequence that four seamer a little better, do the “show it, then throw it up in the zone” thing, most hitters are gonna have a lot of trouble looking to lift a sinker for a hit but then geek up more bat speed for high four seamers.

As long as they can figure out how to make the four seamer look less than obvious so it always gets ignored his K rate should get more respectable. The fact that he doesn’t walk many guys is my favorite thing. The ground ball that sneaks through, or the HR he gives up because a power hitter was sitting on the high fastball, is gonna be way less of an issue.

He has the tools to develop into a really effective pitcher and the roadmap to doing it doesn’t involve him learning a whole new pitch or learning to control 3 pitches. So that’s nice. Hell, he may even learn to throw the sinker harder, or with horizontal break changes. Then he’d be a beast.

Senator_John_Blutarsky
Legend
3 months ago

I agree Jeff – he’s going to get the ball every 5th or 6th day and has the opportunity to be a 3 or 4 in the rotation.

cookmeister
Trusted Member
3 months ago

it was encouraging to see him use his 4-seamer more as the season went on (in strikeout situations). If he can improve his slider/curveball and throw more 4-seamers in swing and miss situations, I can def see him being a solid option

halofansince1978
Super Member
3 months ago

Best thing this guy gives us is youth…he’s 23 years old.

Angelz4ever
Super Member
3 months ago

Looks like we actually…..developed….a good young pitcher?

Jim Atkins
Super Member
3 months ago
Reply to  Angelz4ever

Developed a pitcher? Where is my fainting couch? I’m having an attack of the vapors! Quick, summon Dr. Jack Daniels! He’ll know what to do!

red floyd
Legend
3 months ago
Reply to  Jim Atkins

Looks around for AngelsFan7 and drags the fainting couch out of the attic.

There ya go.