Nobody asked me, but Adell while owning a lot of raw natural talent, he is not going to be even average for his career unless he can be traded or picked up as a Free Agent by a club that knows what to do with coaching and working with him. A 4th or 5th OFer at best on a losing club, again just my opinion.
You look at all that foot speed and bat speed. You look at how Adell has gone from a guy that can’t do anything, to a guy who is an .800+ OPS hitter with speed and defense sometimes and can do some things…. I just put him on other teams, not a stacked team like the Dodgers, but “team” like the Cardinals…. yeah, you don’t just flush this 25 year old down the toilet unless he gives people the sense he is done working on things and won’t try to get better. If he can just make his “post All-Star” self happen for 2/3 of the season he’s really valuable. And the power…. if he ever gets comfortable long term he’s gonna have .500+ SLG.
This is so well put together. Seriously, this is better than a lot of FanGraphs stuff I read. Friggin awesome job Jeff.
Thanks.
Line Fire and Big Bear. Heavy sigh of relief as this fire seems at this point in time to being put under control. Suspect of starting this fire in custody, he finally lite up his goal on his third try, btw, is burning at the stake to harsh?
Maybe too fast? A slower burn maybe? Rotisserie?
I’d start putting these guys in the fire fighting helicopters and dumping them right into the middle of the blaze.
Great job, Jeff. You are a big reason I still come by daily.
Adell is worth another year of playing time. His ability to adjust is heartening. His defense is much better.
He could be a 110 OPS+ of’er. He’s worth another year of look and see.
Thanks.
The community is better off when you come here and post.
The thing I have to keep reminding myself is Adell is only 25. While he seems like an aged veteran, he is not. Although I’m not as optimistic about stardom as I once was, I haven’t given up hope for a +3 or 4 contributor.
Nice work Jeff.
Thanks.
I often wonder how the poor developmental system the Angels have been running and the fact that everybody is rushed to the MLB level might have hampered or even diminished his progress, and possibly his overall career.
Agreed. Adell has had one year under Washington and with Pillar as a mentor and his defense has improved tremendously.
The fact he made a mid season swing adjustment at the MLB level is pretty incredible.
I just wonder what a Tampa Bay or LA could’ve done with this kid from ages 18 to 22 or so and how good he’d be.
I wonder what my life would have been like if I was 6′ 3″.
Baseball life is a lot easier if you realize that most farms, over the years, are like Texas or Seattle. Better than ours, but still plenty of “what could have been if said prospect were on these two teams that seem to develop guys…”
Add to that, Duh Doyers seem to be losing a lot of their super wonderful developed prospects to injury and suck now…. it’s all a total crap shoot.
I am actually curious to see if a couple of these “very athlete athlete” picks of Epplers suddenly turn like a worm. Probably not, but jeez, you see the ability of Adams, even at the MLB level…. if he could learn to make even average MLB contact it would be a big deal, diet Ronald Acuna.
Your Pettis would have been bigger
Assuming Trout is a DH in 25’ and Ward is dealt, our OF figures to be Adell, Moniak and Adams. That is some fugly sh*t on paper but, hey, maybe they’ll all improve…..
Assuming Trout is a DH? That’s unlikely. Assuming Ward is dealt? Where does this come from — and what are the odds of same?
How about this — assuming Trout is back playing CF at least half the time and Ward is in left most of the time, then Adell and Moniak will split starts in right with Moniak the spill over in CF when Trout is DH? Much more realistic.
Agree with this. Unless the Halos sign a FA outfielder, I would say the odds of dealing Ward are well under 50 percent. Why would they put themselves in a position where they have to play Adams every day?
Ward is gone in 26 regardless and will be 31 next year. Makes sense to trade him for something that can help us going forward. It is unlikely we will be competitive next year or in 26 without significant changes. Moniak and Adams will be on the bench with Ward, Trout, and Adell in the OF.
Agree. But it’s been a long time since sensible trading of players was something that this Organization participated in.
So that they have a better 2027 with the future HoFamer that they’ll get for him. [What’s the sarcasm font again? I forgot.]
I posted ad naseum that the tell for Adell would be batting average. Is he a .190-.210 guy or a .240-.260 guy? He the former and likely always will be.
He’s a fine 4th OF with outside potential to improve to every day player level.
Your could be right — of course, he could be a .220-.235 hitter which is in the middle of both groupings.
I’d say 5th or 6th outfielder in a decent Org which is to say he wouldn’t be on the roster.
Agreed, the roster is so empty that we’ve been looking at Adell as a future RF for four years. He should be the throw in of some trade that we only really care about the other players.
Wow! Really insightful, detailed analysis, Jeff. Thanks.
I was aware of the no-leg-lift adjustment (as we all were), and his defensive improvement (which was a delightful surprise to me this year), but your level of fine-grain detail was totally worth the read and I think you should paid for this kinda stuff, if you don’t already.
Joe has definitely earned the opportunity for a longer look next year. Adams and Mickey may be battling it out for a spot on the roster
Great piece of research Jeff.
Only thing I can add is that Jo turns 26 a week into the 2025 season so we can imagine he will put it all together next year if we are optimistic.
Adell is just the kind of player who the Angels KNOW will turn into the stud they want with better coaching another organization could provide. For this reason alone they will hold onto him thru his arbitration years.
Dripping with sarcasm. I love it.
Wow Jeff, what an absolutely great piece of work. Extremely thorough and very detailed. Too bad it doesn’t have a better ending. I’m a bit more pessimistic though than you. I like Joe personally and greatly appreciate his attitude and effort but so far he’s really a marginal ball player. His performance for the year via OPS+ has been very consistent with previous years, hot streaks not withstanding. And you’re right, we just didn’t really learn a whole lot this year.
The good news is that next year will be more of the same so it’s likely that Joe has another year to get to where he needs to and see if his adjustments can be sustained long term, and I would be ok with that. Your upside of 105-110 OPS+ would be tolerable if everyone else on the team but Neto were not in the same boat. We can’t afford to have a whole team of barely average players and we have so many offensive positions that aren’t producing much. Right now Jo is a little under 1 win for the year. He’s definitely a great athlete, the question is can he turn into a very good baseball player. Even as he is now, he’s better than Mickey, and would make a nice 4th OF if he isn’t good enough to start.
Grit. He survived.
Really proud of him because the way he was handled by Wash in February (what I saw)
Wash treated him as a AAA player unlikely to make the team. Remember all the discussions about if we’d carry 5 OFs? He was always #5. Also Hicks didn’t take him under his wing.
More than once for drills, I’d see the club split in two: 40 guys that were all the MLB roster or veterans, and then the other 40 players, minor leaguers. Jo was usually put with the scrubs.
I see the season as a Win for Jo
Maybe Wash treating him that way and saying those things contributed to Adell’s improvement. Tough love works.
We learned he is cool and chicks dig him. He is not an OG but definitely on his way to become the Prince of the OC.
The .280 OBP is rough to say the least. He still chases pitches outside the strike zone.
On the other hand, he also stole 15 bases and you could see him stealing a lot more if his OBP went to even .330 or so. I do think that he has worked hard to get better and I like him.
This may be harsh, but I don’t see a good baseball player…at least here. Too many mental mistakes on the base paths and in the field to justify the below average contact. I’d rather keep him just to fuel the tank than sign a journeyman FA, but I’m quite confident in saying he won’t be a starter on a playoff roster.
I’m in. Given the complete lack of depth in the Arturo/Minasian system, Jo has a chance to be a part of the next core if there is ever one.
The fact that the Angels system is so bereft of talent that an article of this depth and excellence is written about HIM is a sad statement. Adell would likely be out of most good Orgs by now waiting to be picked off the trash heap by…..well, likely by the Angels. The fact that he is still relevant to the Angels and taking up a roster spot is an indication of a very poor system indeed with limited options.
I suppose there is a chance he could make it all work – just like there is a chance a pig will fly. But I’m not betting on it.
Thanks for appreciating the article.
We went into this season thinking this was the year we’d answer all our questions about Adell. Yet somehow we didn’t.
Honestly, we didn’t get answers about anybody. Net and O’Hoppe were going to be fixtures long term but non of the others did enough to stand out.
What Did The Angels Learn About Jo Adell in 2024?
2024 was supposed to be the year Jo Adell finally played enough at the MLB level for the baseball world to fully evaluate him. Would he play up to his prospect potential, become a bust, or fall into the vast area in between?
451 plate appearances later, I’m not sure we really know. But let’s take a look at what we did figure out.
Overall Numbers
Jo’s overall numbers do not look very good. His slash line in 2024 is an unimpressive .207/.280/.402. If you prefer OPS+, Adell was 12% worse than league average. If you prefer the more encompassing wRC+, Jo was 11% worse than league average this season. For a corner outfielder, that is pretty bad. But the overall numbers don’t tell the full story.
Early Swing
Baseball is the ultimate game of adjustments. Late last season and into the early part of 2024, Jo made some significant adjustments to his swing. He kept the leg kick but made his path to the ball far more direct, limiting his uppercut and hopefully making him a bit quicker to the ball. This adjustment led to a great power surge.
The power was on display in Phoenix and carried over to the beginning of the regular season. On April 30th, Jo sported an All Star caliber slash line of .316/.365/.614. That small difference between the batting average and on base percentage highlighted a major issue with strikeouts. Jo walked a measly 3 times over those first 23 games. His 14 strikeouts were manageable, but anybody who strikes out 5 times more often than they walk is due for some problems.
Summer Swoon
Over the next two months, Jo Adell was absolutely horrid with the bat. He allowed his swing to get long again, the hard contact stopped, the strikeouts increased, and his slash line for the months of May and June was a miserable .142/.210/.325. It was time to adjust again.
Adjustment #2
Coming out of the All Star break Jo Adell’s bat started to heat up. Gone was the leg kick featured above. Less movement gave him the ability to start his swing a little earlier. Suddenly Jo was hitting balls to right field regularly and the numbers improved. From August first until his final game on September 6th, Adell hit a very respectable .250/308/.435. His K/BB ratio also improved significantly as Adell tallied 9 walks against 29 K’s.
You can see the difference in the swing and the results below.
Defensively
In his previous MLB stints, Jo Adell was renowned for defensive miscues. But in 2024 he showed remarkable improvement. Joe was named the Defensive Player of the Month in May and his reputation for an improved glove began to grow. On the year, FanGraphs gave him a favorable grade for his defense.
Beneath the Numbers
Ok, so we know Jo improved with the glove and the he had two runs of success with the bat after adjustments. We also know pitchers will adjust back so we need to look at Jo’s attributes and what they could mean for the future.
His baseballsavant.com page reads about like you’d expect but with some surprises. For example, Jo’s bat speed is in the 98th percentile in baseball. With a bat that quick, he shouldn’t also have whiff and strikeout percentages among the 17th and 15th percentile, but he does. On the plus side, Jo’s sprint speed is also among the best in the game.
As stated above, the overall numbers are a bit shallow with Jo due to the second half swing adjustment. But let’s take a look at how pitchers pitched Adell overall and how he performed.
Not surprisingly, Jo was well below league average against 4-seam fastballs. That big leg kick and long swing probably had a lot to do with that. However, he crushed sliders when he hit them and performed reasonably well against other pitches.
So, what’s next?
Most likely Adell falls short of his prospect rankings but avoids being labeled a bust. He chases way too many pitches overall and his swing length was in the bottom 20% of MLB. Ditching the leg kick will put Jo’s swing length into much better territory. Whether that impacts his swing decisions remains to be seen although the dramatic improvement in Adell’s strikeout rate after the adjustment is reason for optimism.
Adell is strong enough to still drive the ball without the leg kick. I do think his raw power will take a bit of a hit, but with more balls in play and the ability to hit doubles as well as home runs, Jo’s batting average and slugging percentage will likely rise. It is probably unfair to expect a large increase in Jo’s walk rate which was right about league average this year.
A .250/.310/.435 slash line with solid defense and good speed is a very solid MLB level player. That’s nearly exactly the level Jo played to the last month of the year and his talent suggests is quite possible. While not the sexiest slash line that would be a bit above league average; probably an OPS+ of 105-110. Add in some nice defense and that’s a 1.5-2 WAR or so ballplayer with tantalizing enough physical attributes to dream on more.
So while the Angels didn’t exactly learn everything they hoped about Jo Adell. They likely learned he can be a solid MLB caliber player with a good glove and elevated strikeout rate.