First things first.
The Angels have not successfully developed an early round prep pick into an impact player since the 2009 class, and they have no business selecting one in the first round. If they do, they don’t understand their own system, what they can and cannot do, and the org is truly hopeless. Moreover, this is arguably the deepest draft for college position players in a decade. The fact that the Angels don’t have second-round selection again is criminal, and repeats the mistakes of the 2010s that resulted in the Angels having the worst farm system in the Majors for a stretch. This is the year that the Angels could have received two first round talents among their first two picks, but now they choose only once on Day One. Their first round pick better be a high-confidence college player, and those types of players are the only ones I list here in my first tier of prospects likely to be available in the #6-15 range on MLB Draft Day.
This is a personal preference ranking:
I think the likelihood of Lowder falling out of the top ten is very small, and also I think 2-3 of these names may be gone by the time the Angels select at #11.
My personal “guy” in this pack is Matt Shaw, and has been for the past couple of months. If the Angels want to repeat the Zach Neto miracle in 2024 (and Neto was top of my board when they selected him last year), and the club wants to find an impact player to become an MLB regular within a year of drafting, I think Shaw has the highest likelihood of delivering that. He could slot in at 2B (or anywhere on the infield really), and has an enviable speed-power combo with good barrel rates and sneaky high ceiling. He’s performed consistently in cold weather with wood bats (he was the Cape Cod MVP) and in a competitive college division. Walked more than he struck out last season, hit 24 HRs in 62 games, stole 18 bags, was caught only once. Solid glove – if not for an average arm perhaps more suited to 2B than SS, he’s a five tool player. I don’t know why any teams are talking themselves out of this guy – seems like next-level Neto with more power. (Keith Law agrees – in his final mock for the Athletic, he all but urged the Angels to take him: “I haven’t heard Shaw as much as I should, though, as he could move quickly with a shift to second base.”)
If not Shaw, Taylor and Wilken offer two 3B options who were both college performers. Wilken has power for days and delivered a video game slash line for Wake Forest this season (.345/.506/.807 with 31 HRs in 66 games), but he’s slid down boards a bit by spooking teams somewhat with a 1-for-12 fade-out with 7Ks in his final three games of the College World Series. That seems like too much recency bias though for a guy with 21.5% walk rate in his 2023 season, and a masher that delivered Wake Forest a generational season for the record books. Brayden Taylor, on the other hand, is strongly linked to Oakland at slot #6, but he’s another solid bet, a lefty with a more versatile profile than Wilken, but less thump (Law: “some of the best batted-ball data in the college class, from launch angle to hard-hit rates and more”).
Dollander and Waldrep are no-doubt first-round college arms, who’ve each had inconsistent stretches in both their junior seasons and the CWS that drove up their ERAs, but have also both had stretches of dominance that make them look closes to their #2 MLB rotation potential. Dollander has the longer pedigree and came into the season as the best pitcher in his class, but some potential tinkering with his secondaries disrupted the meticulous control he exhibited in his sophomore season. He’s still incredible value at #11, and has as much ceiling as any pitcher on Day 1. I slot him above Waldrep, because Waldrep has clear reliever risk, not unlike Bachman in 2021. One day he’s striking out 12 hitters in 6 innings, the next outing he’s walking 6 and chased by the third inning. He has a devastating splitter, but the fastball has proved hittable, and with no second round selection, ending up with a set-up man out of this first round class would be a disappointment. High risk, high reward pick.
I’m less bullish on the hit-first crop in this draft – the Angels have a real power deficit on the farm, especially among infield candidates – but if I were to choose one, Troy seems like that guy. A super-ute that does a bit of everything, has absurd plate IQ, and seems like a high-probability contributor that will move fast and likely be an MLB asset, if not necessarily a star, for a good long time.
~
Second tier picks:
While at the top of this list, I have my doubts about Schanuel’s ability to translate his power to wood bats at the MLB level (his performance on the Cape is a red flag, even if he takes his walks). His might be a profile you could drool over if he fell to you in the 20s, but #11 seems too rich for a contact-centric 1B/DH, .615 OBP or no. Morales is tempting, and provides a lot of what Wilken offers (K-risk, big pop, 3B succession), but the 20% K rate also gives pause. Gonzalez and Wilson look like MLB shortstops, but chiefly contact hitters that could become reserves if some power doesn’t develop. I include Davis and Horvath here as guys that look like Major League outfielders to me with legit corner OF power profiles.
Beyond this, there is catcher Kyle Teel – a BPA type is a less catcher-strong organization, and who is still less likely to slip to the Angels (I’d slot him near Wilken’s spot if he did). Then a clutch of MLB pitchers in Ty Floyd, Brandon Sproat, Joe Whitman and Hunter Owen who are mid-rotation possibles if the Angels were seeking an underslot deal to spread more of their draft pool money around for later selections.
Ideally they don’t have to do that. Ideally they grab Shaw, Dollander or one of the college infielders in my first tier and hope for quick ascendancy. But this is a draft room that tends to agree with my preferences once every three years (Neto in ’23, Detmers in ’20, and Canning/Adell in ’17) so, well, we’ll see.
Schanuel. Top of my second tier board. Kotchman/Casey profile.
Doesn’t surprise me that Troy-Shaw went 1-2 after the Angels selected.
Well you got the guy you didn’t want. The best that can be said in a vacuum as to this guy is he walks and seems to make contact. The Halos could use a guy like that. He also likely can cheaper than other guys they passed on. You know, the usual Angels philosophy.
Probably too strong to say I “didn’t want” him. The guys in my second tier all have compelling profiles, and Schanuel was top of that tier, but what separates the two tiers for me is that the others above him seem to be more complete players – strong defensive profiles on Shaw, Troy and Taylor to go with contact and power both. Guys that will likely hold their value, and offer more positional flexibility, thus more paths to contribute.
Schanuel reminds me of Thaiss – who also had one of the top hit tools in his class when he was chosen, but had fringey power relative to other 1b types.
He was basically seventh on my board when the Angels selected – but still on my board nonetheless, as he has one exceptional tool, his glove plays at 1st, and the Angels don’t have an answer there at present.
College bat ✅
So glad you jumped in. Thanks. Nobody else could’ve done this great of a job.
I like the 2nd base pick, but it’s just depressing to see their current 2nd basemen of the future completely fall off a cliff after getting paid
I guess an upside to a bad farm is that I am not really going to be upset by anyone. I saw us mocked for Teel which maybe would give me mixed feelings given the relative depth there (relative to the Angels crappy farm, 2 players in the system is now considered deep).
OTOH, Teel is probably the safest pick the Angels could potentially make in terms of value. There aren’t many holes in his game, the bat is impressive, he’s a no-doubt catcher. Quero is still 2-3 years away, unless the Angels rush him, and one of the two could be offered in trade.
In terms of “safe” picks, I’d probably say Troy, Teel and Shaw in that order. If I had to answer the question of “who will be an MLB regular in the next 2 years?” that’s how I’d rank the likelihood among the first tier bats.
At this point, get Teel. Best player left.
I have not mentioned Enrique Bradford Jr at any point in this thread. And the Angels have been mocked to Bradford multiple times over the past couple of months.
I see Bradford and then I see a lefty Jordyn Adams. 80 grade runner, plus defender, questionable hit tool, and even less power than Adams.
The Angels already lack the nerve to permanently push the aging and fragile Trout to LF, where he should be, and let Moniak, Adams or Adell prowl center. Is there a particular reason why the team should try to draft Juan Pierre over a regular 2B/3B or rotation arm at this point?
This isn’t the system to maximize Bradford’s value.
I would not be adverse to Wilken. We could get a 3rd baseman with power to replace Rendone in a few years.
Dreaming on the next Troy Glaus.
My exact thoughts.
No significant candidate from my beloved Oregon State this season (except Garret Forrester in 4-5th round), I must admit I have no idea on any of the players above.
To provide another perspective, I had to compare MLB draft with recently held NBA draft, which featured Victor Wembanyama. Several posters at this site have pointed to me that sports agents will not agree to MLB draft including players from worldwide even though owners would love that. It is baseball fans who are being cheated that we would not see likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki be available for MLB draft.
Flip side is also true. Houston Asstros would have had the first pick with record of 55-107 in 2012, had Sho entered MLB draft at age 18. 😭
I am still reading a lot of materials about international baseball draft; hopefully I can summarize some sort of intelligible opinion before August 1.
no one expects a prep player and me too – I hope not
but the one name maybe is SS Houck- any observations on him?
if they get a premium prep, my head would spin
Houck and Arjun Nimmala are the two best prep infielders in the class. Tremendous athletes on five year timelines, with the potential to stick at short and hit for plus power down the road. Of the two, I prefer Nimmala, but neither will come cheap, both will need swing calibrations (not something the Angels have proved adept with), and a *good* outcome with either would be they, in 3-4 years, look something like what is available with Shaw, Troy or Taylor today.
The other prep kid mocked in this range (and who the Angels like) is Bryce Eldridge, a two-way player who wants to stay one. But if anyone thinks the Angels can grow the next Shohei Ohtani in their weak development system out of 6’7″ of raw stuff, I want some of that hopium. Sounds like just another Kaleb Cowart muddle, where the Angels will fail to decide how to best use him, and he’ll wash out in AA after several positional experiments and mental therapy.
Thanks, Turk. Good stuff. I’m on board with all the names you listed as your preference. I assume a Lowder will be gone and while a Dollander might slip through, Shaw and Taylor are tempering to take over Chase. I do like Troy and Wilken too.
Hoping that there is a fit with Taylor. To drop in another ‘Neto’ right next door at 3b is dreamy.
of course pitching is always needed but it’s time to get a college bat.
id like to see us match Jung at Texas 3b – any of the candidates at 3b should be there.
either way we will get the 5th or 6th college player.
The Fangraphs guy mocks us Waldrep and here’s what he says about him.
Teams are generally putting the Marlins with contact-oriented bats like Gonzalez and Jacob Wilson, especially if Noble Meyer is no longer on the board. This is the last place I’ve heard Meyer’s name mentioned, which makes me think it might be his floor. The Angels were associated with toolsy high schoolers early during my intel gathering (Colin Houck, Bryce Eldridge), but that has shifted to the hit tool-driven college guys and polished arms who can be run up the minor league ladder quickly, which is consistent with their recent approach. Waldrep could pitch out of a big league bullpen tomorrow.
I think Longenhagen’s pick here is more based on guess (based on the Bachman pick) than draftroom intelligence. Recent rumors suggest they have Dollander over Waldrep on their board – but who knows.
I’m not enamored of that pick, based on your intel. We shall see.
Ah yes – the DJ Stewart moment. Ward proved us all wrong, though one wonders if ’21-’22 was just a mirage these days, as Taylor begins looking like a 4th OF again.
The emphasis absolutely has to be on starting arms this time unlike 2021.
We have to follow the T-Ray’s formula of success and just shoot for a successful WC regular season with a bunch of serviceable interchangeable parts except SS.
Most people don’t know who anybody else is on TB except Randy Arozarena and Yander Franco.
It’s not terribly deep college pitching class though, while the college positional depth is quite, quite deep. The players going in the teens this year would be top 10 picks in another draft, and many second rounders will become MLB standouts, I’m fairly confident.
Wander Xander Yander Zander. Sorry, I could not resist.
https://youtu.be/4Zg63CRn6gs