Welcome to my version of the “If I Were Perry Minasian” series. In order to rosterbate responsibly, we will use the following guidelines.
- Payroll is to be $210 Million so you have $38.4 Million to spend.
- No trading Ohtani
- No contracts longer than three years
- Use either MLBTR’s estimated free agent salaries or their counterparts at Fangraphs
- You can clear roster space by non-tendering players
- Run all trades through the trade simulator at Baseball Trade Values dot com
I have a problem and I admit it. I cannot ignore the moves that Perry has already made. They are real and as much as I may want to be super creative and play the game as though they have not been made, the fact that these moves exist in reality makes me want to explore what to do next within the context of the original game.
For those of you living under a rock, Perry has made the following moves:
- Acquired FA pitcher Tyler Anderson for 3/39 (impact on 2023 budget is plus $13 million)
- Acquired infielder Gio Urshela via trade with the Minnesota Twins (impact on 2023 budget is approximately plus $9 million)
- Acquired Hunter Renfroe via trade with Milwaukee (impact on 2023 budget is approximately $11 million)
These moves eat up approximately $35 million of the $38.4 million we had to spend. So, what is there to do now with the remaining $3.4 million….the answer is quite a bit. That is what the rest of this article deals addresses.
My goal is to shore up 1B, sign a closer and to trade Ward who I think had a career year last season and whose trade value will never be higher.
My first move gets rid of Stassi’s salary and the expected arbitration increases due to Walsh and Ward.
MOVE #1
Angels trade to Baltimore Orioles:
Quero (7.8 trade value), Stassi (-7.8 trade value), Walsh (0.1 trade value) and Ward (36.2 trade value)
Angels receive:
Austin Hays (OF with 16.3 trade value) and Ryan Mountcastle (1B with 16.3 trade value)
Austin Hays, age 26, produced 2.3 WAR in 2022 and has 6.4 WAR in his approximately 3 full seasons as a pro. He has decent power and has 131 RBI over his last two seasons. His OPS+ over the last two seasons is around 105. He is a very solid defender and will replace Ward easily with arguably more upside. He will earn approximately $3.5 million in 2023 per Sportrac.
Ryan Mountcastle, age 25, produced 1.3 WAR in what was his 2nd full season in MLB. He has power and has hit 51 HR in his last two seasons producing 174 RBIs over that time. He is an average defender but I expect that to improve as he continues to play on a daily basis. He is not eligible for arbitration until 2024 and will earn the major league minimum in 2023.
Overall financial impact of this trade is to save Stassi’s $7 million in 2023 along with Walsh ($2.7 million) and Ward ($2.90 million). That is $12.6 million in savings. Hays and Montcastle will earnings approximately $4.2 million. Therefore the overall impact of this trade is I have $8.4 million more to spend.
Now with $3.4 million and the $8.4 million from the above trade, I have $11.8 million to spend. What to do….I will tell you.
MOVE #2
FA Signing – Mike Clevinger – 1 year $10 million
Yes, Clevinger had a down year last year. But this is a guy who has a track record of being a complete stud and adding him to the starting rotation with Ohtani, Sandoval, Anderson and Detmers is SOLID. Even in his down 2022, he still produced 0.6 WAR and a 4.33 ERA. I am not worried. He is going to bounce back BIG in 2023.
I now have 1.8 million left to spend.
With Clevinger in the rotation, Suarez and his 12.8 trade value becomes tradeable which leads to the following move.
MOVE #3
Angels Trade to Blue Jays
Angels Trade Bush (5.1 trade value), Placencia (2.9 trade value), Sanchez (2.4 trade value) and Suarez (12.8 trade value)
Angels Receive:
Closer Jordan Romano (trade value 26.4) who produced 2.9 WAR in 2022 as a closer with a 2.11 ERA. In his last two seasons he has generated 5.7 WAR as a closer with a 2.58 ERA. He is expected to earn $4.0 million in 2023.
Angels save approximately $1.3 million which with the $1.8 million left to spend basically covers Romano’s expected arbitration price.
With this trade, the Angels have obtained a young affordable closer to go with their young bullpen arms.
LINEUP
- David Fletcher/Luis Rengifo (2B)
- Mike Trout (CF)
- Shohei Ohtani (DH)
- Anthony Rendon (3B)
- Gio Urshela (SS)
- Ryan Mountcastle (1B)
- Hunter Renfro (OF)
- Austin Hays (OF)
- O’Hoppe (C)
ROTATION
- Ohtani
- Sandoval
- Anderson
- Clevinger
- Detmers
- Barria/Canning
Bullpen
- Herget
- Quijada
- Loup
- Tepera
- Wantz
- Some Trash Pandas
- Jordan Romano – Closer
I believe this is a team that could compete for a wildcard. The pitching is rock solid and the floor has been lifted with two young solid players in Hays and Mountcastle. If they stay healthy, that roster could produce and produce – and because they are generally young, that could happen. Jordan Romano is the closer of the present and future. Also, this got rid of Ward at what I believe is the peak of his value and also dealt with Stassi’s contract. The team is young and hungry and will be fun to watch!
Photo credit: Rex Fregosi
Appreciate the write up and the effort you put into it
I can’t imagine Baltimore trading for not one, but 2 catchers when they have an absolute stud behind the plate. Also don’t like giving up Ward, he was arguably our 3rd best player last year and poised to have a big year after his injury slowed him down
Yah that was my first take as well. They have 0 need for Stassi and his salary is a hard no for the O’s.
Good take again and nice to see other peoples thoughts.
I mean yeah – I threw Stassi in there to make the money work. The trade evaluator gave it a thumbs up. But real life – Stassi is not a player that Baltimore likely wants particularly at 7 million.
But now that Clevinger doesn’t happen bc he’s now on the White Sox, take Stassi out of the picture and trade Quero, Walsh and Ward for Hays and Mountcastel. That’s a trade the O’s strongly consider. I would do that trade in a second.
See below. Remove Stassi and still make the trade. Clevinger already signed with White Sox so the dollars work without the Angels signing Clevinger.
At first I was like “Ohhhhh, creative, enticing, bold….” That’s an interesting trade with twin goals….
Then I was like “Clevinger. BARF.” You did all that work just to buy is a pile of injury risk and douche breeze? Now I’m sad.
Then you gave up a lot to get a closer. It’s just my logic, so meh, but I just don’t think I’d give up much to get this particular team a closer. If we were hurtling towards the play offs with a good chance to win a WS and we’d be that much better with said arm…. maybe…. but that type of guy is the performance clutch on a car I am building, and right now the car doesn’t even have all eight cylinders firing.
But hey. Both yours and Bigz ideas are at least solid gambles. If they work out well we could be pretty good. You’re jus giving up a lot to roll the dice, plus you have to watch Clevinger pitch every week, which is like watching a cat lick itself for two hours, then you have to listen to him talk, all while hoping his fastball bounces back after TJS #2.
I get the thought process on Clevinger. A one year bounce back deal made sense to me.
As for the thoughts on the closer, I typically agree. But this guy is special. And yes, it’s a good point the team should be closer before trading so much for a closer. But I see this kid only getting better and the trade becomes an investment in the future.
This is very good. Not high on Clevenger but Mountcastle and Hays are very good pick-ups.
I have many comments. First, I would love the first trade you made but there is no way the Orioles make that trade. For the Angels to get both of those established players plus free up money would be over the top. I just don’t see it. Sorry.
Second, Clevinger isn’t a guy I would have interest in and he is now with the White Sox.
Third, I don’t like the latter trade at all. I realize a closer is nice but it is way too much to give up. Like it or not, the Angels need Suarez. The prospects also.
The Angels should keep searching.
Then there is no reason to make the first trade if you dont love the last one. since the first trade is primarily a salary dump.
I think Mountcastle is good. Hays looks like he is finally coming around. I like the talent. That’s why I would do it. You can spend the money elsewhere.
Mountcastle is a function of his home ballpark. Thats why his OPS+ fell to 105 last year and his slugging pct fell by 35 pts when the Bards moved the fences back at Camden Yards.
I’m not sure we would benefit by acquiring Mountcastle especially when he learns about the Marine Layer first hand.
I’d rather give Gio the first base position full time if Walshie continues to struggle next season.
In my opinion Romano has the potential to be another Mariano Rivera. So that is why I’m willing to give up a lot to get him.
I’m not so sure the Orioles wouldn’t make the first deal. They end up with Ward, Marsh and Quero. That replaces 1B, OF and gives them a top catcher prospect.
The Clevinger signing is outside my control. I think he would have been a very good addition to the pitching staff.
The Angels would need another catcher if they make the first deal. I have nothing against Romano but I don’t want to give up all the other talent for him including a starter. Too many holes appear. There is also little future as we are moving on from too many useful prospects.
I get it but it is hard for me because I believe Romano is the real deal and would strengthen the bullpen immensely. But I know the thought process on trading for the bullpen.
Thanks for the effort in creating this – very good job!
I do have one question: with Adley Rutschman as their starting catcher, why would the Orioles trade for Stassi and Quero?
Good question- I think they would be interested in Quero – a top catching prospect that is waiting in the wings if Rutschman gets injured. It’s a depth piece. In the meantime Stassi becomes the backup catcher which would strengthen the backstop position.
Catchers who can hit (Quero can also run OK as of now) and are blocked by a guy like Rutschman just get moved. If he hits AA/AAA at 21 and needs to learn to be a catcher/1B/corner OF because Rutschman is Johnny Bench it’s a problem they will be glad to have. Like the Dodgers with Will Smith and all their top catcher prospects now.
Man, people doing these articles just can’t catch a break.
Already out of date because Clevenger just signed…..
Still enjoyable to read the ideas.
This article was written several days ago. Nobody can be expected to follow this timeline slavishly in an article about what the author would do in an alternative timeline.
Yes, of course, I understand this is just a fun exercise.
But this year the “possibilities” seemed to turn to facts much quicker than normal. Perry’s first moves came right as the original articles were about to drop, and now today’s says sign Clevenger literally hours after he just signed.
It is amusing, that is all. As if Perry (and other GMs) are monitoring this site and messing with us.
Maybe these early strikes are the way Perry normally operates?
His first year I think he was hired too late in the offseason to properly effectuate a rebuild strategy (he also may have been learning on the job too) In his second year the impending lockout impacted just everyone’s strategy with everyone trying to get as many players under contract as possible. So Im speculating that this is the first time hes been able to control the Off season timeline phases (QO, R5, Non tender, winter meetings etc.) allowing him to build the roster the way he wants it . Of course having more money in the payroll budget this year then ever before hasn’t hurt.
It happens. The world does not stop turning. That said, the signing of Clevinger probably makes the third move more difficult bc the team will want to hang onto Suarez.
I’d still do the first deal if Baltimore is game and then use the $12.8 million – maybe for a shortstop. Or find another good arm and then Suarez becomes tradable again.
I like these moves but Gio is not a shortstop and shortstop needs to be addressed. You have also made this lineup even more right handed with the trade of Walsh. We need another lefty bat or two in the lineup.
I think the jury is still out on whether Gio can play SS. I think he could easily transition from 3B to short. It’s worth a try. And if Rendon goes down, Gio moves to 3rd and Fletch plays short.
There is not enough money in this exercise to fix everything. My goal was to come up with a lineup that could compete for a wildcard which I think this team would.
If you read Perry’s quote after the Urshela trade, he doesn’t say Gio is a shortstop. He says his natural position is third but they think he can play first also. He can also fill in around the IF. That doesn’t sound like Gio is playing SS. It sounds like he is the platoon for Walsh. Fletch might be SS.
Of course, other moves may be coming.
I think I just read the Blue Jays are in the market for starting pitching. The Suarez deal might just work for them.
Edit: Actually, that might be the Orioles I’m thinking of.
Suarez is definitely a tradable chip which could bring something decent in return. He could be plugged into the Orioles deal as well and signing Clevinger makes Suarez replaceable in the lineup.