A BRIEF INTRO TO THE DOOM WE HAVE ALL ASKED FOR AT ONE POINT OR ANOTHER….
So, what would it look like if who ever the Angels owner is told his GM that he’s lost a ton of money on crypto named after a famous 19th Century French prostitute and needs the payroll to get down WELL BELOW 100 million this season? Is there any way to come out of this in fairly good shape or will we all just have to weep like conquered women and never ever make the play offs again for really ever?
Well. Let’s see if there is a way to make some delicious lemonade.
FIRST. Since Ownerz has made my first job as the new POBOEIEIO to act as George Clooney in Up in The Air I am going to make my first requirement in order to hire me that I get a 5 million dollar a year budget for scouting and player development. That is an average salary of $71,428 per year for 70 people. Now sure, some data experts will get twice that, and some guys who just upload videos will get less, but if you have seen what a lot of the second tier employees in this field get we will be paying very very well compared to a lot of orgs.
NEXT. I am hiring scouting, analytics, physio, development and specialized coaching people from the Braves, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Guardindians. Poaching all the good people I can with at least two years of experience in these orgs. Plus some Driveline guys.
Next Next: I am hiring a manager that these Ops/Development guys recommend. He will be an extension of these guys plan. He can use his gut in some situations, but he will not be an egomaniacal bitch like Maddon or Soth.
NEXT NEXT NEXT: The Ops guys and manager will hatch an organization wide development program from DSL and Rookie Ball through scouting failed MLB players who could be fixed. Then all of the coaching at all of our levels will be evaluated based on this plan. Any changes will be made to fit this plan. Farm team managers and coaches will all be hired by Ops, not the managers at each team.
The scouting and analytics departments will also be brought online with the new plan that Ops and Manager Notbitch have come up with. MLB coaches will also be hired that will work with the plan now that it has taken shape and been started.
Then I will……
Trade # 1: Shohei Ohtani to the Dodgers
Return: Andy Pages (OF) Bobby Miller (SP)
WHHYYYYEEEEYH!?!: Ohtani is leaving. Even if he wanted to stay, the time has come to make a decision. Are we going to build a team with solid organizational fundamentals or not? If you want to answer yes, you can’t demand we then sign another 10 year plus mega deal… THEN try to be smart. I love Ohtani. I love Cronuts. I shouldn’t have either if I’m smart. I am smart.
No. I don’t care about “Up the freeway, so much fans, always news, look poopy, my self esteem, value of franchise is stars, Bade Root.” Nope. Don’t care. The Dodgers can afford him and can give us the best return for him. That’s all I care about.
WHAT DID WE GET?: I strongly encourage you to click on the names, which are linked to their MLB.com scouting pages.
You may have thought we should at least get Bobby Miller and a pile of other guys. If so, you have been wrong. In fact, this trade is a little bit of mercy surplus for us. This was actually called an overpay by the sims, but only by a few points, which I thought was fair cause “Bade Root!”. We did get Miller, and….
ANDY PAGES: OF in AAA
BOBBY MILLER: SP in AA
PLUS not having to pay Ohtani 400M or even 30M this year.
This trade was to add talent that will develop at the MLB level soon and add to Soto, O’Hoppe, Detmers, Adell/Moniak (I hope), Neto and the swarm of pen arms we have ready to give it a shot in 2023. Miller is the #26 and Pages the #66 in MLBs Top 100 prospects. Pages has power, hits well, can run, and has a cannon for an arm. He is also a guy we would have gotten in the failed Dodgers trade some of you can’t let go of because of your daddy, I mean Arte, issues. Miller is a possible future ace. He has three above average pitches and holds velo for a long time. I think we’ll like him.
Trade # 2: Taylor Ward to the IndiGuards
Return: Gavin Williams (P) Gabe Arias (IF) and Jake Fox (IF/OF)
WHHYYYYEEEEYH!?!:I actually really like Ward and the way he has developed. He is being traded for two reasons. One, you have to give value to get value, and he has value. Two, he is at an age and contract status where he will start to cost a lot of money and then become a free agent too far ahead of the young core I hope develops. This will be the answer on a lot of these trades.
WHAT DID WE GET?: I strongly encourage you to click on the names, which are linked to their MLB.com scouting pages.
GAVIN WILLIAMS: SP in AA.
GABE ARIAS: SS/3B in AAA/MLB
JAKE FOX: SS/2B/3B/CF in A
I really liked Gavin Williams in the draft. In an effort to validate my incredible sense of how smart I am the Guardindians, who pretty much always draft the best pitchers ever, drafted Williams. He is #53 in the MLB Top 100. Williams is basically a less developed Bobby Miller who throws a little less heat and has better control.
Are you one of the donkeys that keeps making noise about needing a SS that hits 30+ homers? Well, Gabe Arias will be that guy if he pans out. If not he can still be a solid 3B or corner OF. Jake Fox is young but reminds me of a stronger, more athletic and defensively diverse David Fletcher if he develops.
Trade # 3: Patrick Sandoval, David Fletcher, Aaron Loup to St Louis
Return: Joshua Baez (OF), Alec Burleson (1B/OF), Michael McGreevey (P) Connor Thomas (P)
WHHYYYYEEEEYH!?!: Much like Ward, even more so, I love me some Patrick Sandoval. From the way he commands the zone to his luxurious beard I love him. I am trading him for the same reasons as Ward. I am trading him to help me ditch Fletcher and Loup as well, even though I actually think they will help the Cardinals. They are just too old to match our core and cost too much.
WHAT DID WE GET?: The big get here is Burleson, who is a lefty masher who can play 1B/OF/DH. He’s a beast and is in the MLB now, but is largely blocked in St Louis. He is the #88 overall prospects in baseball.
Baez is just a kid. A kid with speed, a 70 grade arm, and 60 grade power at age 19. He needs to develop and learn to actually hit but he could be friggin awesome. McGreevey is the secret treasure in this trade. He’s a Cho in The Show (UCSB BABY!) so there’s that, he’s the Cardinals’ #9 prospect and all of their minor leaguers become Hall of Famers. But he’s so much more. He has a four pitch mix headlined with a 95 MPH sinker and he had 115Ks to 11BBs in 102 innings as a senior at UCSB. His control has stayed much the same through AA and while he needs more development that could actually be completed in 2023 as he is a strike thrower. Connor Thomas is actually potentially a Rule 5 draft loss for the Cardinals, but if I can have him as trade filler I want him. He has good splits with 60% ground ball rate from a good slider, change and primary sinking fastball. He can be another Jose Suarez and he can join the rotation now.
Alec Burleson 1B/OF in AAA/MLB
Trade # 4: Mike Trout, Ryan Tepera and Andrew Wantz to Cubs
Return: Kevin Made (SS), James Triantos (3B) and Matt Mervis (1B)
WHHYYYYEEEEYH!?!: The Cubs could actually stand to have an icon on the roster as they complete their fast rebuild. They can actually afford him. I also think Trout might enjoy being a Cubby, especially if they start winning again. I will enjoy not paying him around 37M a year and will enjoy it even more if the prospects we get back for him pan out. Tepera is actually a zero value player and a former Cub who will fit in their pen, as will Wantz, who actually has some trade value. Trout had a little value too, even with his contract and missed games. That’s nice.
WHAT DID WE GET?: Wellll…. We got what I’d expect from a team with a meh farm who isn’t trading their top prospects to take on a huge contract no matter how much CtPG guy cries about it. These are the Cubs #11, 17 and 21 prospects but I tried to bargain hunt this as much as I could.
Triantos is 19 with a high baseball IQ, a strong arm, good contact skills and decent power who has Alex Bregman/David Write as his ceiling. If he fails at 3B he can be an OF. Made is already a very good defensive shortstop with a quick swing. Mervis may be the steal in this trade. He was a priority NDFA after the 5 round 2020 draft out of Duke who went from A ball to AAA last year. He’s a solid 1B and has a ton of power. He will likely be a platoon split though unless he learns to hit LHP better. But if he can manage that at AAA then he’s a great low key pick up. To give you some idea why I got him, he is not a highly ranked prospect because 1B rarely is, but he is the #8 1B prospect in the MLB. He also has a mid-90s fastball and an OK 80 MPH change up…. for what that’s worth.
James Triantos 3B in A
Trade # 5: Jose Suarez and Luis Rengifo to Blue Jays
Return: Orelvis Martinez (SS/3B), Addison Barger (3B/SS),
WHHYYYYEEEEYH!?!: Well, again, age and value, though the sims actually don’t give much for Rengifo. I gave us a slight overpay in this trade, by a couple points, because I think Rengifo’s value goes up when this all updates for next year. The Blue Jays want to get the most out of Whit Merrifield and play him in the OF. Biggio’s not partnering all that well with Bichette up the middle. Rengifo solves this at 2B. Toronto also needs pitching depth and Suarez provides that.
WHAT DID WE GET?: We got the #70 prospect in baseball in Martinez. He’s got a lot of power, but like many young hitters, curvy balls bats are afraid. He has a good arm, and is fairly large so he will probably move over to 3B, but I am actually OK with him falling back to learning the OF. With his arm he could be a solid RF and hit for a ton of powah. Barger also has a ton of power but was slow to develop. He has cut his Ks down and increased his SLG as he’s grown. He has a really good arm and has spent time at SS/2B/3B and can likely play OF as well.
Trade # 6: Herget, Quijada, Stassi to Arizona
Return: Dominic Fletcher (OF), Blaze Alexander (Utl), Blake Walston (SP)
WHHYYYYEEEEYH!?!: Herget and Quijada have value and team control. The D-Bags are just about done with a rebuild and will likely start a hot new OF next year to go with Walker, Rojas, Kelly and a couple solid young pitchers. They need pen arms. Stassi keeps Varsho in the OF and backs up Kelly at catcher.
WHAT DID WE GET?:
Prospect depth. And David Fletcher’s little brother. Rejoice.
Walston’s the big pick up here. He’s basically Reid Detmers but younger and taller. Alexander has pretty much all five tools, just not to any glorious amount. But he’s seen as able to stick at short and has power and failing that he can be multi-positional very quickly. Fletcher is a skills over athlete player like David but with more power and as an OF. He’s capable of covering all three OF positions.
Dominic Fletcher OF in AAA/MLB
Blaze Alexander SS/2B in AAA
OK. So I need you to stop crying, wipe your nose, and look at this.
Below is our prospect depth by level and position post trades. You know that farm system you hate so much? It now has 7 top 100 prospects in it (and Quero who is a lock to make it when the season opens, so 8). We got a big pile of prospects from very good systems in Cleveland, St Louis and Arizona as well as the best we could get from the Toronto/Cubs systems. That’s all added to the pile of pretty solid prospects we currently have.
You know how you always whine about development? Lack of position players (now that you can’t cry about lack of pitching in the system)? Well, I tried in those areas too. Just about all the position players have one or both of the tools you can’t teach (Speed/Power) and almost all of them have defensive fall backs. So it looks like we have a pile of SS, but I fully expect several of them to become outfielders or corner IF. That’s why most of them have the power to justify the move.
I also tried to keep a development arc that will build the MLB roster fast without jamming too many players at one level and starving them for innings so they don’t address issues. Almost all of these guys are in a position where they can be MLB ready with realistic progress at AA/AAA with a couple “high upside” gambles in the lower levels. THIS is where that scouting and development money I spent comes in. I want a bunch of these guys ready fast, and those that fail need a “next wave” pushing them just a year behind and the scouting/training/coaching is there now (in theory) to create that.
You may have also noticed we have a ton of pitching prospects. I tried to get us a couple guys who can team up with Detemers now and start developing at the MLB level. I can see that the AAA/AA pitching staffs will be crowded. I have two intentions there. Obviously, some of these guys who look good will advance to our roster quickly. Some of them will also be traded quickly to speed up our rebuild. Also, our upper level pitching prospects were still meh in 2022 and this situation at least gives us that meh + Silseth, Miller and Detmers to see pretty fast.
I have also tried to address the fact that most of our position player prospects were in A+ or below this past year. Are you sick of our AAA team being a giant pile of failed AAAA players? Well, now there will be at least some young players getting regular ABs and innings there while they wait for an MLB look.
As soon as we can kind of see where our prospect depth is failing my hope is to be able to trade some young arms to address those positions where we are weak.
Prospect Depth:
I am including some guys who have some MLB experience but have not yet established themselves as regulars as “prospects” because they are the first phase of the rebuild attempt.
Starting Rotation: Reid Detmers (L), Chase Silseth (R), Connor Thomas (L), Jhonathan Diaz (L), Touki Toussaint (R), Tucker Davidson (R)
Rotation Level 2: Cesar Valdez (AAA), Joe Kalish (AAA), Davis Daniel (AAA), Ky Bush (AAA), Bobby Miller (AAA)
3rd Level Rotation Depth (Later in Season): Blake Walston (AA), Sam Bachman (AA), Mike McGreevey (AA), Gavin Williams (AA)
4th Level (Further Away): Mason Erla (AA), Landon Marceaux (AA), Coleman Crow (AA), Brett Kerry (AA), Mason Albright (A+), Braden Olthoff (AA), Walbert Urena (A), Alejandro Hidalgo (A+), Caden Dana (A)
The Rotation Plan:
For the first few weeks of the season we will let Detmers & Silseth pitch with a mix of guys who are pretty much out of options and have a fair amount of talent between them that hasn’t shown up in the MLB.
While they battle it out the MiLB season will get going. The entire development dept, including MLB coaches n manager, will talk after about 4 starts per pitcher. At that point, and every few trips through the rotation there after, SPs on the MLB roster will be pared away if they suck. The MLB/AAA/AA levels of starting pitching will be adjusted every few weeks with the successes aggressively facing better competition and the guys who struggle being sent down to a level where they can safely work on their issues with development guys and not block fast risers.
The MLB and Salt Lake rotations will likely look different by June.
Look at the AA Trash Pandas rotation. Those guys plus Detmers, Miller and whomever survives the pitching battle royal in the first half of the season are going to be a beast of a starting 5 or 6 in the not too distant future. I want those four guys in that 3rd Level to spend at least the first half of the season in Madison getting trained up together while the pitchers ahead of them get sorted out via competition. Within a season or two we should start to see a solid rotation develop as well as some trade bait.
The Bullpen Plan:
Basically the same plan as the rotation, but with fewer names involved. One difference (see below) I plan to bring in at least one very experienced MLB reliever to basically help develop some of these kids at the MLB level.
Bullpen Prospects: Chris Rodriguez. Luke Murphy, Ben Joyce, Eric Torres
Bullpen Next Up: Colton Ingram, Luis Ledo, Ryan Coustei, Jake Madden, Kenyon Yovan
Bullpen level 3: A bunch of guys from A/A+ who can’t sort out a third pitch plus some other guys who were at Rocket City to end 2022.
Of course, as the year goes on, it will become clear that some of our starter prospects are not starters. They will move into this mix. Also, I intend to use some of our starter prospects in opener/long relief stints later in the season just to get them some MLB exposure.
The Position Player Plan:
I know that below is basically just a long list of names that most of us have never heard, and for good reason, they’re just prospects. But trust me, this list has much better names on it now than it did in 2022 and it’s miles better than say 2018. The Angels were not actually short on solid prospects in the Rookie and A ball levels. The trades we made added solid and versatile prospects at or above AA so our rebuild can start ASAP and those younger guys can develop apace.
Catcher: Logan O’Hoppe (MLB), Matt Thaiss (MLB), Zach Humphries (AA/AAA), Edgar Quero (A+/AA)
Middle Infield/3B: Livan Soto (MLB), Gabe Urias (AAA), Zach Neto (AAA), Blaze Alexander (AAA), Addison Barger (AAA), Michael Stephanic (AAA), Orelvis Martinez (AA), Kyren Paris (AA), Jeremiah Jackson (AA), Kevin Maitan (AA), Jake Fox (A+) James Triantos (A+), Kevin Made (A+/AA), Werner Blakely (A+), Denzer Guzman (A), Arol Vera (A), Adrian Placencia (A),
First Base: Matt Thiass (MLB), Matt Mervis (AAA), Trey Cabbage (AA/AAA), Kevin Maitan (AA),
Outfield: Jo Adell (MLB), Mickey Moniak (MLB), Dominic Fletcher (MLB), Alec Burleson (MLB), Andy Pages (AAA), Torii Hunter Jr (AAA), Orlando Martinez (AAA), Ryan Aguilar (AAA), Jordyn Adams (AA), BJ Boyd (AA), Joshua Baez (A+), Jadiel Sanchez (A+), DeShawn Knowles (A+), Alexander Ramirez (A), David Calabrese (A), Nelson Rada (RK), Randy De Jesus (RK)
Also of some note, if you’re like me you’re kind of sick of some of these names. Much like the rotation, there are some “last chancers” on this list like Adell and Thiass. Having learned from The Taylor Ward Experience and having a desolate wasteland for an MLB roster I see no reason not to give these guys a big dose of starts to begin with and see if they finally take charge. But if not guys like Burleson, Pages, Mervis and Cabbage will want work.
WHEW! That’s a crap ton of blather! What about the actual MLB roster? What is our payroll now? Why should I still be an Angels fan?
GOOD NEWS HALOFANS!
Our payroll after all that cutting, but still keeping Rendon, is down toooooo….. 54.4 Million…. that’s not excluding MLB minimum players that I traded since they will be replaced by guys making the same or more.
Celebrate oh yee sadsacks. Your Newownerz have embraced your mindset and just given up since it makes no sense to buy you all the candy you demand. Time to enjoy the roster you deserve.
So. What moves are we making?
SIGN MICHAEL CHAVIS 1B/DH to a well paid MiLB contract.
Why oh why?! You are probably sobbing. Well click here and look at Chavis numbers against left handed hitters. You should also look at his MiLB numbers. He was a beast prospect back in the day. Let’s see if we can get him into a 1B platoon with some DH at bats and get some offensive POWAH with the help of “modern baseball guys”.
SIGN JOSH HARRISON 1B/2B/3B/OF for 2 YEARS and 6 MILLION.
Why? This is not a champihonk move! Well, it’s simple. He is, or at least was, a very useful player on a bunch of good teams and he is a leader. If I am going to have a bunch of kids in a dugout for a couple years I want Josh Harrison in there with them. He can also at least take the field in several spots too. Depth. Click here to see that he’s not all that bad.
SIGN HANSER ALBERTO for 1 YEAR at 1 MILLION
Why? Is Hanser Alberto secretly good? Well, no. Not anymore. But he’s a versatile fill in for various infielders. He has experience to share from good teams. He is not named Andrew Velasquez so you can stop moaning about him. At best he’s also a good contact/bunt guy our kids can learn from.
SIGN CRAIG STAMMEN for 1 YEAR at 2 MILLION
Stamman may actually have a good season left in him. He has leverage experience and pitched for the Padres when they were good. He can be traded at the deadline if he works out. He understands how to pitch without being overpowering in tough innings and control walks, which is good for the kids.
SIGN SEAN DOOLITTLE for 1 YEAR at 2 MILLION
Doolittle may actually have a good season left in him. He has leverage experience and pitched for Oakland and the Nats when they were good. He can be traded at the deadline if he works out. He is also very cool.
SIGN CORY KNEBEL for 2 YEARs at 15 MILLION
Knebel may actually have a couple good seasons left in him. He’s 30. He has leverage experience and pitched for Brewers, Dodgers and Phillies when they were good. He can be traded at the deadline if he works out.
FINAL PAYROLL? 69.9 Million. Nice.
The “Line Up”.
1B – Jared Walsh
2B – Josh Harrison
3B – Anthony Rendon
SS – Livan Soto
RF – Dominic Fletcher
CF – Jo Adell
LF – Mickey Moniak
C – Logan O’Hoppe
DH – Michael Chavis
BN – Matt Thaiss
BN – Alec Burleson
BN – Hanser Alberto
Rotation:
Reid Detmers
Chase Silseth
Touki Toussaint
Tucker Davidson
Connor Thomas
Jhonathan Diaz
Bullpen:
Pen – Austin Warren
Pen – Chris Rodriguez
Pen – Luke Murphy/Ben Joyce/Eric Torres
Pen – Craig Stammen
Pen – Jaime Barria
Pen – Sean Doolittle
Pen – Cory Knebel
Soooo…. what is the long term plan for this Wildebeest of a roster
The first goal is to let competition decide the fates of Adell, Chavis, Moniak, Thaiss etc. as well as 2/3 of that starting rotation.
The next goal is to have those who survive the first couple months gel with the younger prospects being given time, like O’Hoppe, Fletcher and Burleson. Meanwhile the rotation members that suck will be cut loose and AAA starters will replace them.
In the bullpen, the kids will hang out with the cool old men and try to make a season of it. The cool old men currently take up 3 roster spots but I think we all know that there will be plenty of innings available due to suckage and injury. Murphy, Joyce etc will battle for an open spot or two in March and the guys who don’t win that battle royale will be a plane flight away in SLC.
At the end of what will almost certainly be a very tough season we will hopefully have a fair number of young players who have had their first extended exposure to MLB games. We will also have had a year of our entire system developing under the same philosophy. With luck we may have also identified a couple development gems and maybe even seen a broken down veteran generate some trade value.
I also fully intend to trade Jared Walsh as soon as he proves he is not totally broken. If the heavens open up and pour out blessings on us and Rendon is good all season and I can find a trade partner for him I’ll send him off too next off season.
After this season, we will have a very good draft position and an Ops and Scouting department prepared to take advantage of it. We will also have a clearer picture of where we stand on our farm which will help us in the draft.
The light at the end of the tunnel says your clichés are stupid.
If you look at the talent that we have on hand in this situation at AA/AAA I think that we can probably produce solid members of the roster at at least seven positions on the diamond, 4/6 of our rotation and most of our bullpen.
It would be at this point that Newownerz, having made back their whore crypto losses by selling the “currency” to the US government, tell me to start signing FAs to bolster the roster.
We will have had hundreds of innings watching all these kids develop or fail based on an org wide plan for roster construction and use at this point.
Talented kids who don’t fit our plans but have trade value will be traded for MLB talent that fits our needs. I will also have around 150-200 million dollars in payroll space to spend. It’s at this point I will do things that play off contenders do like sign (or trade/extend) an ace or an MVP type hitter if needed. I will also use a healthy chunk of that much larger payroll to extend some of my pre-arb players that we like into a couple years of their free agency…. thus creating at least a six year window where we have a core competing plus those kids from the 2024 draft and the guys currently in A ball and the DSL etc coming up.
And at no point was Darin Erstad or Troy Percival involved.
Peace out over London, peace in Tel Aviv, rock on Chicago….
The end.
Cover photo credit: Rex Fregosi
Great write up!
…Was that a Wesley Willis shoutout??
Great write up! I started reading in “pants optional mode” but it was so long I ended up having to put my pants back on to stay warm in these wintry months. Having attempted one of these type of things before I learned how much work it really is, and this is beyond that for sure.
All I got to say is…LFG.
Yeah, especially when you do a “big dismantle” you sort of piece it together, then you realize there are issues, so you try to address those, then you realize that you have to explain what you’re trying to do or it just creates lots of questions to answer, then you realize you still have to fill a roster…. and then explain that…. it gets long.
Incredible. Where do I sign?
Buy me the team.
That is the best article I have ever read on a Baseball blog. Hands down.
It’s a total fire sale and rebuild but incredibly well thought out, articulate and intelligent. I loved that you started with what in my opinion is the biggest problem with the org, player development. In the passed 20 years, the best teams have been those that have great development and you addressed that first.
Thanks for the read.
Tanks bruh.
Seriously, I would love to see more analysis, and consider it as a job if you’re not already doing so.
BTW, I saw what 2002 posted about your article. Very immature and inaccurate.
I’ve got a better understanding of why people have attacked him, but I still believe ignoring him is what I would do.
Excellent in-depth analysis. But, seeing Touki and Tucker in the starting rotation made me slightly nauseous.
This is definitely an exercise in burning it down, but I’m not sure it’s a love story.
I think it is more of a reflection of Gitch the Mad Scientist than it may provide in a better product on the field.
See, here’s the thing with guys like ToukTuck. At first I thought BURN BURN BURN! But then I realized that these guys have had big potential in the past. When Touki was a prospect I wanted him. The dude still Ks more than 1 an inning at the MLB level.
So…. if we get all those coaches and analysts and scouts, why not let them go to work on these pitchers first? Why not let guys like Miller start the same process at SLC? Why spend money on some garbage MLB arm when we already have younger garbage? It’s not like I’m sticking with any of these guys long term if they suck. There’s a whole pile of guys waiting to take spots in SLC that just need four to six starts to get up to speed so we can see what we’ve got.
Yes, I can see a method to the madness.
Drastic actions is required to fix an absolutely broken machine…
I love your notion of going with our own younger garbage combined with good coaching. I would love to be known for a team with a great organization. I think we should overpay, overbuild, and attract talent there.
I just want our team to be known as sexy garbage. Sexy garbage has always generated a ton of fan interest and spending.
Yes, I have a marketing degree.
Super fun read. 2023 will be a full of $1 beer nights and middle school campers trying to fill a stadium, but at least there is a plan here.
Curious, did you look at where Adam Seminaris fits?
I did actually look at him, but honestly, he looks like a guy who was an OK college pitcher but has no velo, no crazy breaking pitches or Hoffman type change up, this he looks OK in A ball cause he’s handling kids, but gets beat down in AA/AAA. He’s from Long Beach State, which some guys around here seem to love for some reason, but that’s all he’s got so far.
You never know, he’s only been in MiLB 2 years and who knows what he’ll pick up, but he wasn’t part of a fast rebuild plan because as it looks now I’m not sure he’ll really survive at AA.
We had a lot of arms in our lower Top 30 who kind of fall into these two categories, either SUPER young and a total guess job or guys like Seminaris (or Jansen Junk) who I am almost sure will get bumped by the arms we acquire.
Where does Albert Pujols personal services contract fit?
Inside. You.
Yo mama
beefs
You’ve urinated on the third rail of Angels Baseball (trading Trout and Ohtani) and survived to see the sun rise again. I applaud you!
You can’t hurt steel bro.
Jet fuel can’t melt steel bros
That’s why I bath in it.
So far, I think the saddest fact is this many folks read this thing but not one of them commented to recognize the glorious, Titian like portrait of Angel Fan Thanos I painstakingly added to this post.
Philistines all.
Your portrait of “Angel Fan Thanos” clearly captured the critical moment of aesthetic experience of what it means to survive the “Age of Moreno”. The representation of “Angel Fan Thanos” provokes recognition of the human experience similar to what aligns with critical social theory.
Viewing “Angel Fan Thanos” inspires feelings of nothingless and vibrant joy at the same time; it’s similar to staring at goats and then sobbing manically when their hearts stop beating. The theme of the simultaneous necessity and impossibility of “Angel Fan Thanos” is haunting. The sense that you are elaborating in the aesthetic realm that philosophy, critical theory, and “Angel Fan Thanos” love of the game are necessary and impossible, simultaneously.
Bravo Gitch, Bravo.
Angel Fan Thanos truly captures the sanguine vibrancy of a post racial, post celebrity and post gender baseball landscape. Bleak but crackling with energy, loss and potential.
I MUST HAVE IT FOR MY MEDITATION ROOM!
Is that the imgur guy? Thought it was an ad
Wow. I mean wow.
Loved McGreevey in the draft. Dom Fletcher is a great dude. Hung out with him and David a while back and Dom is definitely more outgoing and equally blue collar.
A Pirates like payroll gets us a Pirates like lineup but a Dodgers like farm.
If you take enough drugs though you can almost see even this crap team in it’s first year doing OK. If Rendon/Walsh/Harrison do career norms, Chavis hits, those BP vets all resurge a little, Adell and Moniak suddenly live up to pedigree and some of those starters pan out fast….. probly won’t catch the Astros, but also probably more fun than this past year.
Harrison’s wife won’t allow a trade to the west coast 🤪
Harrison’s wife just wants him to get a job.
Yeah, I’ve taken large amounts of a wide variety of drugs and none made me see all that happen.
However, a completely sober me can see a stacked AA/AAA team on the horizon so I could live with this for the half to one full season I’d need to endure it.
Incredible, simply wrote up as I would expect from you. The research must have been exhausting, I’d need a shot of CR and a nap. 🙃 It hurts to be in love, especially when the one you love…….I wish this plan or close to it could take place, but I may have definitely do not care for Harrison is all. Toronto has a catcher that I would have gone after that still has Rookie statis and with O’Hoppe would be a good combo. Dodger trade is a good plan. Gitch this is your best work up to date IMHO. It’s time to burn it all down and rebuild and that includes building a FO that can do the job. PTP I still believe in, but he needs to hire a full staff. Expierience is a must.
Gitcho, greatly appreciate your work here. Thanx my friend. Now if only in reality we did not have to do this, smfh.
Thanx bro. Yah… it could actually be interesting and sort of fun to burn it down. I am only afraid because the Phillies tried it and didn’t recover till this year even after being in the “we can invest, sign Harper & Wheeler” mode for a while and the Tigers basically did this, this past season was when their farm was supposed to arrive, I was excited…. ftht.
Pretty much how it feels looking all that crap up and typing it out and linking it and rarebit
Crap, I should have read the Top 50 FA article in the Athletic first, and then read this post after.
Because now I started reading the Top 50 thing and I can’t even enjoy any of the normal fantasies I’d have when reading those types of articles, because for each player on that list I’m like “no way are we getting this guy”.
Now that I’ve read some of the top 50, I had the funny thought that if I had the time (which I won’t), I should write a contrasting fanpost to this one, where I pretend we get a zany owner who comes it and is willing to spend $300MM… what would I do?
That sounds like so much fun but in a different way that this post. But admittedly far less difficult. This post took a lot of thinking and actual research.
The 300M payroll is easy for me. Extend Ohtani. Buy me Swanson. Buy me Nimmo. Buy me a starter.
This would be the Phillies plan…. try to win 1 title and then fall back to the pack while the Braves (or Mariners and Rangers) 10 year plan kicks our ass.
Maybe I’m just too old-school. The idea of a $300 million payroll to take a bunch of guys out of their current laundry and to put them into our laundry just so that we can bash thundersticks and yell “let’s go Angels” and feel like we can talk trash for a season, doesn’t make any sense to me. It has nothing to do with building an Organization, building a farm system and creating a blueprint for long term success.
It appears many on this site care only about the visceral pleasure of winning now regardless of the long term cost. My focus has always been enjoying a quality organization that drafts and develops players and then, when the opportunity arises, supplements with free agents.
The myth is that spending more and more money on players and putting them in Angel laundry will lead to success. That is simply not the case. When the team fails at 300 million, do you take it up to 400 million?
The last five years has shown that the failure is Organizational. . That is not fixed by throwing money at free agents. That is fixed by systematically, tearing down, and then rebuilding the entire Organization in a responsible and thoughtful manner. I have enough joy in my life that I don’t require my local baseball team to win NOW for happiness. I can live with pain if it’s constructive. I would much rather root for a functional and capable organization as compared to throwing more and more money at free agents.
As an example- I’m jealous of Cardinal fans and their Org.
The first rule of being a Yankee/Dodger style Angels fan is not admitting you are a Yankee/Dodger style Angels fan. Keen and squirm about Eckstein or what ever chunk of the 2002 team you choose. Talk about how home grown players are like family. Demand a champion via signing every top free agent that pops into your head plus Tout and Ohtani and bitch about commitment and accountability when it doesn’t happen. Cry till your nose bleeds because ownership won’t spend money to make up to you for their past mistakes like you’re their disappointed child. Wear red. Make noise.
Fanaticism is a form of extremism. The passion that the fan you are describing feels is similar to the anger that is currently dividing our country (no politics intended). All of that is to say it is irrational, illogical and emotionally driven.
Irrational and illogical and emotionally driven analysis has no place in business evaluation nor in critical thinking.
You are asking fans to put aside their emotion and think critically similar to a business evaluation. I guess it should not be a surprise that fanatics look at this as heresy worthy of heads on a spike.
Fan… it’s short for fanatic. Just like scuse is short for excuse, hep is short for hepatitis, bih is short for bitch, clee is short for cliché, and di is short for dick.
I prefer to see it as a hybrid, like the Dodgers did a few years back.
Spend a ton right now to make a better team and hopefully compete in the post season.
But do everything gitch said about investing heavily into the scouting, drafting, coaching, developing, etc etc. so that we start having a farm system like the Dodgers too.
In a bunch of years, when the talent rises to the majors, then naturally the payroll will drop! Because why pay a bunch of guys in that Top 50 list when you have almost a whole team of homegrown stars?
However, the difference is that we don’t need to watch all the stars walk out the door when they hit arbitration or free agents, creating a cycle where we are good, then suck, then good, then suck, then good, then suck (like the A’s and the Rays).
After the past years we’ve just had, I think myself and many others wouldn’t mind bashing thundersticks next year if we had Turner, Nimmo, Rodon and DeGrom and marched to the postseason. I sure wouldn’t complain.
Yeah but it’s not financially realistic – mostly because of prior decisions (ex Rendon) which were made with short term success in mind. That is what is meant by breaking the cycle. The idea of signing a bunch of expensive free agents is exactly what the team’s strategy has been – and it’s failed over and over. Some might think Arte is being cheap but he has spent nearly $200m per year on payroll. So – the strategy has been what you’re suggesting and it has not worked. When is it enough? Winning 75 games with a $300 m payroll? 80 games with $350m?
When is enough enough? I’m already there. Maybe it will take more of this nonsense for others to see.
I’ll also add that Arte has basically not raised ticket prices in a while. There have been minor increases but nothing significant. but they have gotten giant. With a payroll over $300 million, start looking for substantial increases in ticket prices. So you may be banging those thunder sticks at home
Oh yeah. If Unicorney Newownerz come along and “just” extend Ohtani and then “push” the payroll up to 270M to get the talent poor Troutani deserves enjoy prices doubling.
I saw that movie The Mexican…. so I know that enough is never enough.
I saw it with my ex-wife…. so…. there is that….
It appears that you are claiming that my strategy equals the strategy that has not worked.
Yet I wrote that I would pour tons of resources and focus onto player development, scouting, etc etc just like gitch said. That is not what we’ve seen over the past 10 years (which hasn’t worked).
And when you say not financially realistic…why not? See the payrolls of the Mets and Dodgers. That looks real to me.
Ohhhh…. not saying it’s not semi-realistic…. but we don’t have nearly the revenue stream of the Dodgers or Mets
True.
I agree that we shouldn’t have a model that would keep our payroll at $300MM long term.
Just that we could have a zealous new owner who cranks it up for a bit while the revamped farm catches up.
Because one thing I think we all agree on is that we’ve had subpar homegrown development for many years. We all hope that a new owner will do a better job with that.
Arte is cheap when it comes to developing talent.
See, people keep telling me that. So…. when was it that the Dodgers stopped spending a ton? Their payroll will start going down this next year if they don’t spend a ton, but how many years in a row have they been top 3? Can you imagine how much more ton it would be if Trevor Bauer was still under contract? But when did the Dodgers start lowering payroll now that they have cheap young boys to display to the Hollywood season ticket holders?
I’m OK with spending money, but not with Arte, and not at the loss of a great farm system. The vast majority of players on the 40 man roster are not big FA contracts therefore the majority of the team is home grown. IMO FA should be shorter contracts, not huge splashes and for filling holes of starters when home grown doesn’t pan out.
this actually mirrors how I feel about college football these days, with the transfer portal and NIL
That would be interesting to see also.
However, in real life, I think I’d rather see Gitch’s plan then ramp up to 300m while maintaining a powerful minor league program.
the fun thing is that there are numerous middle ground paths that could result in a one year rebuild that isn’t this dramatic.
There’s a bullpen in the waiting in AA.
Yea, but none of those involve Thanos.
Wow. A whole lotta thought and work went into this. This is a TRUE rebuild and I think it’s good to see what that would look like. I found it extremely interesting.
I don’t get the sense you are advocating for it – just showing what it would look like. Trading Ohtani AND Trout. Wowza.
I have personally reached the point that doing SOMETHING and having a direction would be better than sticking with the status quo (ie being competitive’) which has been particularly maddening given the fact the team has two generational players and is still failing. I like the money invested in the Org. I like building the farm. I am not offended by the thought process and can read this without wanting to find you with an angry mob.
Nice work.
It would suck for at least a year… and probably longer unless you are really into watching rookies slowly get better.
I’m not gonna lie though…. a future with Detmers, Miller, Williams, McGreevey, Bachman, Walston, Bush and any of the other “pitcher draft” guys who cut it…. if Arte’s not around snipping UCLs and forcing drugs on players that could be nice.
No doubt it would SUCK similar to Detroit and Pittsburgh level of suck. But that is what a true rebuild is sometimes. I have no doubt I would hate it – but would I hate it anymore than I have hated the last 5 seasons?
Detroit’s a good example of the risks. I actually really like how they have rebuilt…. but this past year injuries ate their kids alive.
But will 120M to 3 guys PLUS moar spendinz for a 70 win team really make me feel good?
The good news is that, in reality, even if we trade Ohtani and just get a couple solid players back, our team will most likely at least be in the mix if our big guns are healthy.
I liked everything, but trading Trout, I would really like Trout to be in an Angels uniform when we win, even if he is only a part-time player. He is not just a good baseball player maybe the best of all-time, but from everything I have seen or heard is also a really good person (kinda like Tim Salmon an other of my favorite players). So I am up for all the moves you outlined above, but please hold onto Trout.
Yah, accept if I keep Trout I have to ditch Rendon…. and if I do that I have to trade something like O’Hoppe, Detmers and Ward to get rid of him. No fun there.
‘plagiarism’!!!!
sorry but I already mentioned this in Biggi’s article along with Reid Detmer’s and Patrick Sandoval’s headshots. Yes another Will Wilson kinda deal.
I mentioned Wil Wilson WRT Rendon weeks ago, bruh. My attorneys will be contacting you shortly, shorty.
whut duz wrt meen?
bawtum line is we need to get thees three players off our payroll and hire good player development baseball peepul away from the colleges just like the NFL and NBA do. Huzzah!!!
💪 💪 💪 🤘
I thought it once. So it’s my intellectual property.
Eye thot abawt it too while sitting on the throne
😆
It couldn’t suck a whole lot more than the last decade. (Excluding 14)
Ohhhh man. Yes, yes it can. I follow the Pirates and Reds. It can. IT CAN.
Now leave me alone while I cuddle my Johnny Bench plushy in the fetal position.
I grew up a Reds fan so I know. After years of the Reds mostly being a AAA team, I finally fell for the Angels when Soscia came over. I can switch loyalty, because I’m a baseball fan and can even love and respect Judge on the team I hate most. But this Angles season was especially brutal because of the buttercup. If they were just going to be a AAA team I think I would have been attracted to the progress.
Don’t mention 2014 to the Cult Of CTPG 80%’ers.
This calendar year doesn’t exist to them.
This was really well thought out and detailed. I actually enjoyed reading this one, as it presents a hopeful plan and I forgot to shed tears about all the good players we were losing while reading it. When I was done reading, I almost said to myself “good, let’s do it” but then I came to my senses, when I saw the $60MM payroll and probable 100 losses. But that might be what we need to get back on track, who knows. No matter what happens, I do like the development plans.
Maybe if the new owner reads this website, he’ll make Rojas a POBO and you the GM.
My whole plan was based on the fact that having to be rid of Ohtani + a guy + probably some more guys AND having no money to add talent…. yuck. And that’d be years of winning 60-70 games a season. I’d rather just REALLY SUCK and make our team true AAAA for a season but bounce back as fast as we can and stay competitive for a long time after.
At this point the team’s gonna face plant either way. The only question is how much skidding is involved.
True that.
Heh, Miller and Page was the first combination from Dodgers I thought, then decided I wanted more depth.
In the other deals, I see you are going for younger prospects than I or FS1971. Probably wiser, I suppose, since we won’t compete for some years if we do tear down and getting people like Harrison to replace the young major league pieces traded for younger prospects is the more productive approach in the long term.
I actually did the “more depth” thing too. On both the Dodgers and Indigerds trades. But I couldn’t get a REALLY good upper level prospect (to valuable) and if I got all AA/AAA level guys that were closer to MLB ready it really piled up on the Trash Pandas. On top of that, I didn’t want to get A ball guys (too long a rebuild) and we actually have some pretty good prospects at A and below.
So I kind of went “best avail” on those two trades.
I should have meant “near term” depth, ie ppl expected to be ready soonish, whereas you went for long term depth.
Yah… I think I originally did like Pepiot, Stone and Pages in the Ohtani trade but then I figured why just throw away Davidson n Touki since we won’t be competing anyway? Why not get a possible ace?
I like this a lot. I think it’s time for he rebuild. I think Mervis is a great get, but I’d still like a little more for Trout. Do you really think this is the best we can do for him, or is the contract just that bad?
And thanks for putting so much time and thought into this. Even if we don’t do a complete tear-down, some of the other individual moves make some sense.
Thanks bruh.
It’s not that Trout’s contract is SO BAD.
To give you an example, on the trade sims Nolan Arrenado is worth 7.5, Paul Goldschmidt 10.8 and Matt Olson is a -23.4 with a 122 OPS+ and defense that dwarfs “gold clubber” Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Those guys are super good, and Trout’s even better plus I love Trout. But all these guys are getting paid close to what their production is worth and will continue to get paid even when it slips. so Trout’s value is only a 14. He actually has value…. so the math nerds actually think he’s earning his money for now.
Right now Julio Rodriguez is huge…. like 240 plus points…. because his new contract’s higher values have not kicked in. Meanwhile Adley Rutschman is a 149 and Gunnar Henderson is an 86.2 for the Orioles. Rendon is what 40 million dollars and hardly any games played looks like (-132).
FOs value the potential for a player to provide them 30M in WAR for league minimum. Most (non-Arte GMs) are not interested in trying to thread the needle between a 29 year old making 30M a year till he’s 37 and the hope that he will average 4-5 WAR a year to make it worth it. CtPG guy can bitch all he wants and bring up magic and the cut of a player’s jib and such, but the sims actually use the same factors to calculate value as the POBOEIEIOs and analytics departments we say we want to be like.
OMG Julio Rodriguez has a high value…….terrible terrible terrible
as Gomer Pyle would say, plus GPD is busy spraying Angel fan’s lawns with bleach every night. Good GM’s/ POBO’s work ask Dave Dombrowski just don’t ask our Pope of Gene Autry Way.
Congratz, dumbazz, we’ll finally have the #1 overall pick in the draft since Darrin Erstad. This is a 55 gal drum of fermenting elephant urine. BECAUSE JOC PEDERSON WOULD AGREE!!!!
💪 💪 💪 💪 👈
Then you do this experiment for a roster under 100 million.
Hell, we are still waiting for his IIWPM from the 2021 off season where he was gonna show us all what’s up.
No name calling.
I assumed he meant the famous Gilberto Dumbazz…. one of the most celebrated jazz trianglists in music history.
Another guy the Angels did not draft.
Friggin oligarchy strikes again. Arte totally doesn’t value lite percussion.
itz those oligarchs from the Oblast again. Ovochek (money fund) must be too low.
I think the Angels have not drafted more players then they have drafted.
I think you’ve hit upon the problem. Draft more than we are allowed to draft. Simple. Even better, draft players other teams drafted a couple years after they drafted them.
Hence Perry’s absurd 2021 MLB Draft (I’ll just draft 20 janitors to save dinero). 💩 💩 😢 ……..werst fahrm sistim in MLB since 2010.
😂
OK, now I can see a bit why Gitch goes after you. Be better.
Sooooon yowrah joouurneeee will beeee comb pleeeete.
This guy is obviously an asshole. This is too long. I hate his words and so many are here. I hate words, they are hard. Joc Pederson. Emoji emoji emoji.
and not enough headshots with flagrant misspellings
Hey – no name-calling … even if it is self-flagellation. 😜
But…. every time I fart isn’t it self farting?