Let’s be honest, the Angels are quite far from competing for AL West titles much less World Series titles. Mike Trout hits the big 3-0 next August and the franchise desperately needs to build around him while he’s still superhuman. The free agent market won’t fill all of the holes the Angels have on their roster. A notable trade must be made to alter the direction of the franchise.
Taking into account the Angels current prospects, the current roster, and obvious needs and looking at the top prospects from around the league we’ll propose trades that should move the Angels towards contention over the next few years. Trades will be made with consideration towards reality, the needs and areas of depth of all parties, and perhaps through the somewhat useful trade simulator tool.
I’m up first, so here we go. In full disclosure the seed for my trade came from Turk’s Teeth but I’m going to modify his original proposal.
Trade OF Jo Adell and INF Luis Rengifo to the Detroit Tigers for SP Matt Manning and SP Joey Wentz.
It is so great to dream on Adell, who is rated the #4 prospect in all of baseball by Fangraphs and given a 65 grade for future value. But he’s a natural for center field where his speed can be used to maximum effect and he accustomed to the spin off the bat. The Angels have a center fielder for the next decade, the Tigers do not. And the Angels have Brandon Marsh in the wings to take over an outfield spot soon. He might not have the ceiling of Adell, but his floor is that of a solid MLB player.
Luis Rengifo gives Detroit an MLB ready infielder who is only 23 years old. The Tigers will have multiple infield spots open next year and Luis will be no worse than a cost controlled utility player for them for the next five seasons.
Matt Manning is rated as the second best pitching prospect in a Detroit system that is overflowing with near MLB ready pitching prospects. He lacks the name brand sizzle of Casey Mize but he also lacks his injury history. With a consistent 92-95 MPH fastball he can ramp up to 97 and an absolute hammer of a curve ball, Manning has front of the rotation stuff. Last year he showed improved command in AA while refining his changeup. I know the sexy name here is Mize and this feel like playing it safe, and it is, but I want more of a sure thing of trading Adell and like the upward trajectory of Manning.
To compensate for the lack of marquee value in Mize, the Tigers also give up their #9 prospect. Wentz is a near MLB ready middle to back of the rotation piece. He’s a pitcher, not a thrower. Known for command and a killer change up, he’s effective but not over powering. His profile is pretty similar to Reid Detmers, the Angels first round pick in 2020.
Overall this trade leaves the Angels with a 2021 outfield of Goodwin, Trout, Marsh (maybe Ohtani) and the beginnings of a quality, cost controlled pitching staff. Manning, Detmers , and Wentz have yet to make their MLB debuts and could be kept together for 6 years. Add in Bundy (27) and Canning (24) and suddenly the Angels have a young, inexpensive staff that can be enhanced by the occasional free agent (Garrett Richards, please).
The Tigers get their center fielder of the future, immediate help at the MLB level and still keep their top 2 overall prospects. The futures of both clubs improve.
Manning was just shut down by Detroit with a “forearm strain”. Damn, an Angels site merely mentions a possible trade for a pitcher and The Angels curse hunts the pitcher down.
I think I just face palmed so hard I broke my nose….
Matt Klentak, Tim Bogar, Scott Servais all working for Jedi and all left after he did here with us.
Klentak is the current GM of the Phillies and was Jedi’s asst while here and a Grad from Dartmouth in economics. Why didn’t Eppler try to keep some of them?
I haven’t been on here in a while because my current jobs all involve listening to dumb people worry/complain so once I’m home I just sit in a dark corner drinking rye whisky and humming softly to myself instead of watching what passes for sports mixed with moralistic pud tugging these days. But I just wanted to say that there have been a whole bunch of upgrades to the site since I last checked and it is looking and working really well now. Huzzah!
Have any recommendations on affordable rye?
Old Forester. Cheap but good. Helps with the baseball…. or creating a blank and calm space in my mind, which I need because there’s no sports on because the players were all afraid I may go a whole three hours without thinking about BLM if they play. If I’m being told to go sit in the corner and think of what I have done I am doing it with Old Forester.
Thanks. I’d like to try something other than Crown, Templeton and Bulleit but didn’t want to just buy a random bottle.
Thought you might have gone back on tour. I’ll bet you’re really a teetotaler.
I was going to launch into a whole wet railing of complaints that have nothing to do with this trade idea….
but I think this is a firmly realistic idea. We have a fairly large pile of meh and aging meh pitching prospects like Barria and Sandoval. We have a couple arms in a higher tier (Canning, Detmer) of prospectness. We know Pena can pitch. Honestly, Ohtani is a prospect still too in my mind. Maybe throw C Rodriguez and Kochanowicz in for generosity. There are no big time arms coming on the market soon. None I’d want to spend on at the level they’ll want. We need a lot of arms.
The Tigers are lousy with them. I say expand this trade even more. Trade Adell, Rengifo and three more of our middle infield/CF/Reliever prospects for Manning, Wentz, Daniel Norris and one of Michael Fulmer or Matt Boyd. The Tigers lack up the middle talent. We give them that. The Tigers won’t want to pay Fulmer or Boyd or Norris. We will. They get a huge prospect. We get two pretty good pitching prospects.
If Bundy doesn’t turn into a pumpkin, extend him. Go into next year with Bundy, Norris, Ohtani, Fulmer/Boyd and Canning planning to be in the rotation with Andreise, Detmers, Manning, Wentz competing for next up. Extend Pena into swing man who goes a little longer. Likely someone out of the whole Barria/Suarez/Sandoval pile gets it together. Maybe we sign someone like Anthony DeScalfini.
Draft more pitching. Sign more pitching (for a bargain, or is anyone excited to pay Paxton/Bauer/Stroman?). Our outfield will be fine. If need be, sign an OF for a one year deal.
But this way we get moar pidtgingk…. and maybe an end to all the whining some day. Honestly I don’t see any aces hitting the market, much less hitting the market and being desperate to come here, any time soon. Besides, we all know we’d land 2020 Strasburg, not a guy who actually pitches like an ace once he’s here. So we will need luck (Bundy/Ohtani?) and many years of drafting to get an ace, but we can get much better depth than we have now.
How about we sell high on trout and get Top Top prospects in a 3, 4, 5 team trade. Do it now before his decline to the corner Outfields. Forget the Trout window and focus on the Adell/ Marsh/Detmer/Adams/ window. A fresh team lead by Fletcher and Ohtani. Sell Rendon, sell everyone else we can. Shoot for 2023 with a fresh young team. Obviously we will have Pujols and Upton around (no one would want them) to mentor the youngins, but it would be like having extra coaches. Plus we would have high draft picks in 2021, 2022 and 2023. We go from one of the highest payrolls to one of the highest farm systems.
OF of Adell/Marsh/Ohtani
Knowles
IF Fletcher/Paris/Jackson/Vera/
Jones
Rengifo?
P Ohtani/Detmer/Chris Rodriguez/Kumar or Leiter
Sign or trade for a Catcher.
Plus all the Top talent we get in return for Trout/Rendon/etc.
2023!!!
Not yet, but if we stay this middling…..then…sigh…. maybe in 3 yrs or so
NTC. Mr. Trout is here unless Mr. Trout wants to leave.
Lest We Forget
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/angels-to-make-significant-cuts-to-scouting-department-furloughing-multiple-employees-prior-to-mlb-draft/
We never did sign any undrafted free agent, to the bitter end, right? So much for building organizational depth….
I’d rather trade Marsh than Adell, but agree that our horde of OF prospects is what we’re going to have to turn into pitchers. Nice writeup. I need to use that trade simulator some more myself.
I absolutely approve. It’s hard to acquire and develop top high level pitching prospects, just look at us! On another note, how much would it cost to get Sean Newcomb back? His value is low. Probably wishful thinking, but could we re-swap Simba for Nuke and let Mickey Calloway work his magic? I think the Braves have a hole at 2nd.
Remember when Brandon Wood was a can’t miss prospect that was “untouchable”?
Good times.
Yep, the solid oak prospect turned out to be balsa.
I like this trade because we’re getting young pitchers where we don’t have to worry about their contracts for a long while. It’s a good step forward.
The last time we traded away a top prospect for pitching was SS Segura + for P Greinke. Instead of re-signing Greinke, Arte went and “put a ring” on Hamilton as well as lose a 1st round pick.
Any trade that takes Arte out of the equation, at least for a few years, is a good move. Let’s just hope Arte wouldn’t nix a deal like this because he’s impatient. I’m just jaded because Arte meddles far to much. We could have had P Stripling, OF Pederson, and prospect OF Pages this off-season. Pederson and Pages could have given us trade capital going into this trade deadline to continue to add more pitching.
You have to trade value to get value. The only untouchables that make the core of a good team are Trout, Rendon, Fletcher, Bundy and Ohtani. It may take 3 or 4 of ours to receive in trade one of theirs. Now while blowing up the team may be best l just don’t subscribe to that theory just yet. With there being a exceptional core it does take a team to win and this team has demonstrated for years now it can’t win. Hate to sound redundant but this team needs more than player changes, the personnel changes must start at Present to VP’s to GM, to scouting director. Tough calls for sure no doubt but now is the time for change.
I’m onboard with this. What’s the point of hoarding prospects in one category (ie OF) if you don’t trade them?
Is this a comedy site? All I see here is folks that are over-reacting to a 30 game stretch and wanting to blow up the team. Lets try worrying more about this team when things are back to normal.
Jeff is not saying to blow-up the team. He is proposing one trade which makes sense.
The only person I have seen wanting to blow-up the team is 2002Heaven and most here probably think he’s wrong. I do.
Let everybody walk then when there contract’s up
The way everybody else wants is will be a once a decade playoff team again just like the last decade which means they’re all thinking like Arte the owner. Oakland got right back into the post season 4 years after 2014 the same time we were last in it. If we had a top notch 3B prospect in 2022 and Anthony Rendon’s struggling I wouldn’t be afraid to bench or waive him. This fan base meanwhile is all over Arte for Albert Pujols and yet they wanna disagree with me for wanting us to do what Billy Beane did up in Oakland, while we were fumbling around from 2015- to now. Making these little small potato deals usually cut the mustard either like Ty Buttrey for Ian Kinsler or Luis Rengifo for CJ Cron. Good or great players have to be scouted, evaluated correctly and developed. There is no shortcut for this. I’m highlighting the Oakland A’s rather than the Houston Astros because of the hatred of them on this blog ( tanking from 2011-2013 ) because the A’s didn’t cheat or tank, BB just outsmarted everybody else.
I think there are a lot of marginal deals to be made and with correct scouting and development some future value can be found. La Stella, Simba, Castro should all be gone for the best offer. Some bullpen arms, preferably as Eppler seems pretty good at trading for them and we desperately need some.
The only guy he’s hit on so far is Felix Pena….
We still don’t have that bonafide shutdown closer that we haven’t had since K-Rod same goes for the 2012 version of Jered Weaver at starter. Marginal deals only add depth and not a main cog, I’m not gonna get stupid over Ty Buttrey either. Trout and Rendon are here for a very long ( we all had a giant multiple one!! ) until they both turn into Albert. So in the mean time we didn’t rebuild our infield like Oakland did and Arte had to overpay for Anthony Rendon to a 7 yr deal AGAIN… Billy ain’t getting any accolades from me until the day I find out he’s out. 🙄 . Don’t understand the love some members have for a hapless and beleaguered GM…..
If only it was just 30 games. It is 30 games on top of 4 losing seasons and not much to hope on for next year. As it stands now, the rotation for 2021 is Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Sandoval, Suarez with Detmers likely to contribute at some point.
Something big needs happen or Trout will spend his entire career watching more balls fly over his head than into his glove.
Well, the team hasn’t had a winning record since 2015. I’m thinking the problem might be just a tab bit more significant than a “30 game stretch”
Sometimes, actually, yes.
Trading a single prospect who has yet to make an impact in the MLB for much needed frontline pitching kind of seems the opposite of “blowing up the team”.
Isn’t it precisely trading from an area of strength to address an area of weakness, in the interest of strengthening a team currently enduring the longest stretch of losing seasons in its history?
we’ll 3 months ago we thought our prospect OF’s were a surplus strength……Until Joe Adell.
A prospect is still a prospect until he proves otherwise. Last year at the old place many members thought Jo Adell was a untouchable…….not here to say his career is over, but we have wait and see and expect these youngsters to go through their growing pains……..
I think a large part of the reason people thought Adell was untouchable was because we didn’t realize how bad things would be. Ohtani was going to be an ace, Heaney was going to be better, the young starters were going to improve, Bundy and Teheran would be innings-eaters, the bullpen would be better, Upton would rebound, La Stella would be back, Simmons’ 2019 would be a down year, and there would be plenty of time to add pitching before the trade deadline.
Of that wish list, we got Bundy is better than expected and La Stella is back.
This seems very well thought out Jeff. It makes a lot of sense for both sides (not just the Angels), which is important when constructing realistic trades.
Though it would hurt to see Adell shine for another team I think this is a good move for the Angels.
thanks.
I get the thought process. We really need pitching. But in reality, these trades are not done in MLB, at least not at the trade deadline. I cannot think of the last time I saw a trade swapping highly rated almost MLB-ready prospects between teams. Our best outfield trade chip is Brian Goodwin, who has showed he is solid everyday player and still has another year of control. Cleveland or San Diego comes to mind as great trade partners who could return quality prospects, notably pitching. As much as I love Goody, he doesn’t fit in an outfield with Upton (yes he is still on the team), Trout, and possibly Ohtani, while also developing Adell and Marsh.
That’s a good point. Trade deadline deals are usually between a contender and non-contender. Two non-contenders swapping prospects would be odd.
Simmons is another piece with value. He’s 5 for 18 with a couple of walks after coming back from his injury. It’s too bad San Diego doesn’t have room for a veteran SS to mentor Tatis Jr.
Brian Goodwin actually has two more years of control after this season. He’s not a free agent until 2023. The Angels are paying him almost nothing ($2.2m). He’s also demonstrated over two seasons that he can deliver similar impact and value to Kole Calhoun at lesser cost.
I think it’s odd to think that a controllable player with 2+ yrs left on his contract is a lesser fit for the Angels outfield than a non-performer (Justin Upton) who is dangerously close to being cut or swapped for another beached whale contract, or a pure thought experiment (Shohei Ohtani) who has no track record in RF. Neither are high probability alternatives to help in the Angels OF corners right now.
Meanwhile, Goodwin is delivering now, and seems to have a higher probability of delivering over the next couple of seasons than other options among the fan community’s thought bubbles. And all that said, he has much less trade value than Adell, Marsh, Ohtani, Bundy – so the Angels may be just trading something quite useful and reliable for lesser return.
How about platooning Adell and Marsh in RF and leave Brian Goodwin in LF.
BTW I like Stephen Piscotty RF kind of a more powerful Kole Calhoun ( Gold infield and bronze outfield works and that’s how Oakland and Billy Beane gets it done with a fraction of the stupid payroll that we have ). In 2018 he didn’t have Ramon Laureano yet in CF.
All the qualities you listed about Goodwin are exactly the reason why a contender would want him, especially one like the Padres who are just budding into a competitive team. And yes, they would give us a good prospect in return because of the fact he is cost effective and still is under control. You are dreaming if you think Arte would just let Upton get cut with $50M+ still left on his contract. He has a no trade clause, so you cannot trade him. They will keep playing him and pray that he improves while Adell and Marsh keep developing.
That’s quite a lot of confidence that Goodwin would net a strong prospect from the Pads! He was a waiver wire claim last year, and many analysts believe he might net a B-grade prospect, but I like a fellow with a good contrarian opinion, even if I don’t agree. What impact player do you think the Pads would offer for him?
As for Arte cutting Upton, I only wish I were dreaming. He’s cut bait with distressed assets more than once. He traded Hamilton in year three, absorbing $73M+ in cost (half his five year contract salary) to have him play for Texas. He absorbed $28M of Vernon Wells contract cost, so he could play for the Yankees the final two years of his rightly maligned contract. He traded Gary Matthews Jr to the Mets and paid all but $2m of the final two years of his contract.
Paying other clubs to take his declining outfielders in the final two years of 4-5 year contracts is precisely what Arte does. This would be the fourth time he’s done so in roughly a decade. The fact that Joe Maddon has felt comfortable enough sitting Upton for 40% of games thusfar this year, and Fabian at The Athletic is fearlessly talking about the possibility of his parting from the team suggests a GMJ/Wells/Hamilton resolution to the dilemma might not be far off. Even if he sticks around another season, he’s not going to get everyday at bats or block a more promising player.
Ohtani has no MLB track record in the OF, but he does have 64 games of experience out there in Japan. Small sample size and all that, but he rated well there and I consider that at least AAA/AAAA experience. They’d need to work on this in the spring before throwing him out there, but him sharing time in the corners with Adell and Goodwin seems doable.
Though let’s be honest: we’re just talking about a very brief spell in the outfield in 2013, at age 18. That’s ages ago.
It’s not impossible, and worth the experiment, but I think it’s a little implausible to suggest that Ohtani is the better fit *now* over Goodwin in an outfield spot that Goodwin is doing quite well in today.
Maybe Goodwin nets something if offered in trade, but it’s most likely going to be a Jesus Castillo or Sandoval type of return, not a player that is going to help change the trajectory of this franchise.
Definitely agree Ohtani should be the junior platoon partner to Goodwin and Adell (or Marsh, if this article’s scenario happens). At least for the first season they try him out there. I’d also eliminate Ohtani’s SP role in this scenario or reduce it to something like just the afternoon getaway games before a travel day.
Jazz Chisholm for Zac Gallen happened last year. Chisholm isn’t MLB ready but prospect for prospect swaps do happen
Nobody likes my opinion…….WE HAVE TO REBUILD AGAIN…PERIOD.
because Arte gave Billy Eppler too much time and didn’t cut his losses sooner. Who the hell is Arte getting advice from when hiring GM’s? Bill Stoneman? Mike Scioscia? Dennis Kuhl or John Carpino? has to be getting it from somewhere and I don’t even think he hires a firm like Korn Ferry.
Rebuild again?
When did they rebuild the first time?
exactly. We’ve needed a redo for several years now. Instead we get just enough scotch tape over some problems to dream on a Wild Card slot if everything breaks right.
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At first I was dreaming of Adell as our next star but now seeing him, he lacks the ability of and the arm of RF. Trout is declining in CF and will need to move spots. Trout is going back to LF at some point soon 3 years), so Marsh/Adams/Ohtani might be the rest of the future OF. There is also knowles.
I also don’t think the shine is off Adell overall because based on the sheer awfulness of all of our young players except for Fletcher, the rest of MLB can see our player development is bad if not the worst in the league.
The best trade IMO is a a prospect that is literally right around the corner as a front line guy in ‘22 who can get started in ‘21. I mean there are tons of young pitchers like we see all over the league who come in giving consistent QS or can strike guys out it just be average or better. Eppler is the worst GM because we don’t even have 2 average pitchers on a rotation every year. Imagine how much better we’d be with 2-4 average starters.
I’d be more worried about giving up Adell for a 30 year old established pitcher who is 1-2 years from mediocrity. But a 24 year old pitcher who can be a 1-2 starting next year? Send Adell out now.
So let’s get this right- trade Adell when his trade value is the lowest it’s been?
Well – trading him for Manning wouldn’t exactly be selling low, as Manning projects as a top-of-the-rotation caliber SP. We need one of those more than we need an all-star RF, IMO.
I believe Mr. 1971’s point is that we wouldn’t get a top of the rotation caliber SP in return for Adell because Adell’s value is now lower than it was a month ago. And I think that’s right. The thing is, if Jo starts hitting then his value will go up, we could make a trade like this, but then we’d want to keep him because he was hitting.
I definitely think Adele’s trade value has plummeted. I doubt he would return a decent pitching prospect particularly in the current environment. He looks completely lost.
The hope may have been that he performed well and then his trade value would be strong. But it’s been the exact opposite.
Jo Adell is 21 years old and should be in AAA. Instead he’s at the MLB level learning a new position on the fly. He’s off to a rough start but he’s still rated at the top of every prospect board out there.
Exactly. Teams won’t be scared off by a 21 year old struggling in his first taste of the big leagues. He still has a ton of talent, and most forward-thinking teams will likely see a player that has all the tools they’d want and can work with to attain superstar status.
The only prep player from the 2017 draft in the MLB. That’s what folks need to put in their heads right now.
A less needier team would have Adell arriving at age 22, maybe even 23.
He’s clearly struggled. I wonder exactly what Eppler expected out of the kid. After watching him up here, it seems far fetched to have expected him to come up and perform.
16 games, 64 plate appearances. Fewer than 400 PAs across AA/AAA ball. No minor league development this year, no conventional spring training. Youngest player in the MLB when the Angels brought him up.
Of the 36 players who were drafted in the first round of the 2017 draft, only ten have debuted in the major leagues thusfar, and nine of those ten are college players. Only two, Haseley and Hiura, both age 24, have accumulated even 1 WAR in value.
Of all 2017 draft signees, Jo Adell is the only high school player who is in the MLB right now. The only one.
Perspective, fans, perspective.
Exactly. Trout’s first call up resulted in a .220 BA with 30 strikeouts over 40 games.
I don’t know the quality of play and pitching in the Long Beach training facility, but it must be a far cry from what AAA players would see on a daily basis.
MLB pitchers are better than the best arm in AAA, that’s why they’re in the majors. Adell needs time to take his licks, get used to major league pitching and understand the game at a major league level.
I’m not ready to declare his career legally dead over a couple of weeks of play.
Fangraphs has already made a ranking adjustment based on early returns, and they placed Adell squarely in the same tier as Manning and Mize from Detroit:
#10 Manning
#12 Adell
#13 Mize
I really don’t think any scouting depts are drastically devaluing Adell on the basis of 64 MLB plate appearances. Mize struggled in his first cup of coffee as well, and Manning has not thrown a single pitch in AAA, let alone the MLB.
I would trade Adell for either Manning or Mize. Not because of his struggles in his initial playing time, but simply because we would be trading from our true organizational surplus (OF talent) to help remedy our organization’s greatest weakness (pitching).
It definitely makes sense in that regard. Still leaves you with Marsh and Adams, both of whom are top 100 prospects, in addition to the best player in the game. And there’s always the Ohtani wildcard factor – I do think they will likely try to teach him a position (RF? 1B?), too.
Shohei is getting looks as a fielder. Alden Gonzalez posted about it yesterday and Maddon commented on it.
Ohtani played outfield in Japan a bit.
I can only imagine the cannon he could display from RF. It’s a shame though, cause he could be a true #1 SP.
While the trade simulator agrees and this passes the sense check, I do wonder how much Adell’s trade value has fallen due to his bad cup of coffee. If I were the Tigers, I’d ask for more than just Adell for Manning as a hedge against uncertainty.
I suspect front offices probably have some perspective on early MLB performances by young prospects. Casey Mize got hit around in his first two starts to the tune of a 7.04 ERA and 1.826 WHIP. Tarik Skubal fared even worse – 10.38 ERA, 2.769 WHIP. Brady Singer has a 5.16 ERA over six starts.
I don’t think anyone is particularly worried about those guys. I would still trade Adell for Mize.
People look at Kyle Lewis’ performance, and wonder why Adell isn’t achieving those heights. Lewis was a dynamic college player and is 25 years old. Tatis Jr is a phenomenon, but he comes from a veteran MLB family that had him swinging at balls when he was in diapers.
Adell needs development time, and the Tigers are on the right rebuild timeline for that. They’re kind of accumulating risk by accelerating the timelines on Mize and Skubal.
Yeah, true. Detroit has a ways to go and has already proven that they’re willing to be risky by accumulating pitchers. What’s a little more to them?
On FG’s trade value series, Jo Adell clocked in as an honorable mention. Matt Manning came close but didn’t make the list.
Yeah, ironically that Fangraphs list is basically a ranked list of “least likely to be traded” players, as the guys at the top possess too much value to trade. The Honorable Mention list is full of players (cough…Mike Clevinger…cough) who are actually plausible trade candidates.
As much as it’d hurt to give up Adell, I’m for this, because:
A. We are flush with OF talent – Trout, Marsh, and Adams will be our future core, with Goodwin helping bridge the gap, as well as (regrettably) the corpse of Justin Upton
B. We have no pitching to speak of
If we tank “effectively” and get either Kumar or Leiter, then arguably, our future pitching core is:
Bundy (re-signed), Manning, Kumar/Leiter, Detmers, Wentz, Rodriguez (maybe), Canning.
If Detmers is as advanced as rumors indicate, we can have all of them (except Kumar/Leiter) as rotation mainstays by 2022.