Had I predicted a 3 win and 4 loss road trip through Baltimore and New York last week, I think most of you would’ve taken it. And that’s just what we got, although not in a way many of us would have imagined.
Now the boys are back at the Big A for 9 games over the course of 10 days.
Starting off with a sweep in Baltimore, the prospects of a salvageable road trip looked bleak. But Angels pitching kept the ice cold Yankees bats cold for three days before fate and a horrible home plate umpire changed the narrative yesterday.
Pitching was truly the story of the 3 straight wins in New York. First Jose Soriano was electric with heat and his knuckle curve. This makes two dominant outings in a row for Jose.
And then the Professor taught a lesson.
Angels coaching worked with Silent C on a new changeup grip. He took that new grip to the mound and fired off a career high in K’s in NY. Credit Barry Enright and the staff on this one. Silent C’s new pitch looks quite deadly and should play up well against his sinker.
Obviously the 3 wins in New York will provide us with the Highlight of the Week. This week it comes from rookie Christian Moore, who made this dandy of a play to cut down a run at home and preserve the Angels lead on Monday.
Moore collected his first hit in New York as well, a triple. It was a big week for the Angels 2024 first rounder. The native New Yorker had over 40 family members and friends in the stands for his big game on Monday, where he collected that triple, scored the game’s only run, and made that fabulous defensive play.
All in all the Angels have gone 11 and 8 over the last three weeks and crept up close to .500 after their disastrous month of May. A huge reason for the recent success is the bullpen; particularly Hunter Strickland.
The better record also coincides with Jo Adell making a lot of noise.
As mentioned above, the Angels bullpen has done a tremendous job lately. And it could be adding a young arm fairly soon. Samy Natera Jr. had a couple of rough outings that inflated his ERA but that K rate and batting average against are really nice.
Of course the Angels will be bringing some notable talent into the organization at the 2025 MLB Draft. And the team is doing their due diligence.
I’m not on the Liam Doyle train and I’m sure the Angels have looked into others. But if we do land Doyle at #2 overall, here’s what they are getting.
From around baseball:
Shohei Ohtani returned to the mound this week. Ever the perfectionist he wasn’t happy with his performance but there were some reasons for optimism if you’re the Dodgers.
Rafael Devers joined the SF Giants and said he’s willing to play wherever they want him to play.
Yes, I’m fully aware of the reports ICE showed up at Dodgers Stadium yesterday morning. I’m also aware of the fact ICE disputes this report. I’m mostly aware of the fact I don’t want this comments section to turn into the swamp of name calling and echoing political rhetoric that the rest of the web has become.
I will say that if your complexion does not match that of a sheet of printer paper I pray you keep ID for yourself and any children in your charge with you at all times. Take pictures of documents that prove your citizenship and theirs and put them into a dedicated folder on your phone so you have backups as well.
Back to fun…
If you’re following the College World Series, you’ve had a good week. LSU walked off Arkansas in an absolute heart breaker for the Hogs to advance to the finals against Coastal Carolina.
A good comp for Coastal Carolina baseball is Gonzaga basketball, except Coastal has actually won the Big Dance once. CC is a mid major program that has eaten at the big boys table for over a decade now. I thought they deserved higher than the 13 seed in the tournament.
LSU is pure baseball blue blood and absolutely stocked with power relievers. Look at their velo and you’ll think this is AA or above baseball. They play well, they play with passion, and they are a buzz saw right now.
The biggest highlight of this year’s tournament will be Gage Wood’s no hitter. Here are highlights of his incredible day.
And, finally, welcome aboard Yorke Lee! Yorke comes to us from the same internship program that brought us Nolan and I can already tell he’s going to be a great addition to the masthead. Yorke is a strong writer who is just now discovering the joy of baseball. Read his intro piece and give him a warm welcome below.
Enjoy your weekend and link what I missed. I will celebrate both the life of a close friend and the college graduation of another friend on the same day. It is crazy how life works some times. Mostly, I’m going to soak up every moment I can with my wife and our growing too quickly son. Summers in OC are absolutely amazing.
Kade Anderson might’ve pitched his way to the #1 slot yesterday. For his sake, that would be cool.
For our sake, I hope not. I’m all aboard the Anderson train.
Draft is a month away and I’m scared now for no damn reason. It is almost a foregone conclusion that 90% of the guys I think will be good will not be very good. We have a big draft pool. Just pick BPA and pay the going rate for each early pick and then cheap out on the last 5 picks if you need to.
Hell, even if they pissed me off and took Doyle, honestly, I looked at a bunch of scouting reports, he’s got as good a shot as any. I’m really sensitive to his possible issues, but he does indeed have a solid fastball. Who knows, maybe he turns out good?
Even a top chunk of the draft that looks like this is likely to be just as good as if I got my way the whole time…
Liam Doyle
Charles Davalen ( OF Arkansas)
Gavin Turley (OF Org Sate)
Ben Jacobs (LFP Arizona)
Jacob Parker (OF HS)
Mason White (SS Arizona)
Brent Iredale (3B Arkansas)
Those are all guys from right around where we are supposed to pick and Turley and maybe Iredale are the only ones I like much, but is there really any reason for me to think the guys I like will do better?
Man I hope/wish that the improvements the team seems to be trying to make on the farm actually help them develop guys. Take Parker. I bet he could actually be pretty good if he gets coached up well…..
That horrible umpiring in new York got wash’s blood pressure up for a bit. He will be back soon. 🤘
Maybe he should take it out on the umps instead internalizing it so much. its probably better for his health ( and the team as well)
There goes the Wash 15
And we never even got the wins that were supposed to be added by ditching Soth.
https://x.com/SamBlum3/status/1936194849595871541
Ok who had Gustavo Campero on their bingo card to take over for Soler since he finally went on the IL?
https://x.com/LAAngelsPR/status/1936187205674033484
He played Centerfield in the Venezuela Winter league 4 years ago (that and he stayed at holiday Inn last month) so I guess that makes him imminently qualified as a backup outfielder?
😔🙏
Ron Washington will not manage the team indefinitely, due to a health concern.
He’ll be with the team tonight, watching from the suites.
Ray Montgomery will manage the team tonight and moving forward.
https://x.com/SamBlum3/status/1936180103404568742?t=0Pnh0peMubi8gEBEb2K-AA&s=19
Unclear on the timeline.
Perry Minasian: “Health is the most important thing. I’m not letting him manage until he’s 100%. Wash will be around, but he won’t be in the dugout.”
https://x.com/ZachCav/status/1936180239190913366?t=8D9aovMKVpxXTGs8cIfuxA&s=19
He’s 73 – maybe he hasn’t retired for personal financial reasons, but he’s got to be nearing the end of the road career-wise.
I sincerely hope he returns to full health quickly.
Chain smoking Winstons in the tunnel to the clubhouse between innings aint helping matters.
It might be even worse if he quits at this point.
He quit 4 years ago so he could continue to coach during covid
But then picked it right back up when he got a managing gig.
I had no clue, just figured he still did. Good for him, though cigs are hard to stop.
Hope he’s not using the Angels Dr’s.
I can’t imagine that it’s less stressful to watch your team without having at least some illusion of control.
I agree. Maybe it’s not a stress-related health concern?
The likely issue is that he’s a cancer and a jerk who doesn’t really even like baseball but he wants Arte’s money so he’s milking some non-injury injury to avoid the game he only says he loves. There are probably even things that are more important to him than baseball.
I heard he is looking forward to Rendon’s return next year and to get closer to Rendon he himself requested to be on the IL.
I just saw that as well. I’ll be saying a prayer for him.
Best wishes to Ron. Maybe these one run games aren’t so good on old people (myself included!)
Not to mention having to watch every Soler at-bat.
Watching him take 1st pitch strike, and then flailing at a ball down and away for the 3rd strike.
Soler’s striking out at 33.33% of his at-bats (79 Ks in 237 AB), not too far off from #1 (Riley Green – 96 Ks in 286 AB, 33.57%)
On the bright side, if you’re going to be terrible, then shoot for #1 status!
Thank the gods. Everything is fixed now. all the line ups and in game decisions will be incredible. All the no talent ass clowns will hit the cover off the ball and all the throwers will pitch. But most special of all, CtPG Guy can shut the fk up. We’re saved!
I have it on good authority or at least authority that can’t stop complaining that just about ANYONE will be better than Wash. Let’s find out shall we?
Shades of Gene Mauch 1988?
So Ray is now our Cookie?
at least it wasn’t a bus crash that took him out
Ray Montgomery…. the Cardinal Richelieu of the Angels clubhouse rearz his head again
Nice article about Jo
Jo Adell Remains a Work in Progress — But He’s Making Progress | FanGraphs Baseball
I think Fangraphs has been nailing it lately with its articles about Angels players.
Will Schanny have 50 RBIs in 2025?😡😡😡
Well let’s see.
With RISP Nolan is .314/.419/.471 with OPS .890
Late & Close .239/.352/.326 with OPS .678
Tie game is nuts .385/.473/.615 with OPS 1.088
So yeah, if this team had better OBP ahead of Nolan he will get 50 RBIs.
Of course you already knew this. You just haven’t had your weekly fix of Schanny hate.
You’re just hobby challenged. That sucks.
Good data and that is correct. We need the bottom of the order to get on base so our #2 hitter can get more RBIs.
Does anyone even care about RBI’s anymore Toots?
Albert does.
Joc Pederson does.
Man. If only we’d signed Nick Castellanos back in the day eh Tootie. He’d show em how it’s done.
MLB’s latest mock draft has us landing Anderson at 2.
I think most of us would be happy. I would be. Still think Perry goes with Arquette, though.
Would make me happy. I’d like to see the FO be bold and try for a near ready MiLB 3b in a trade. Hope Perry tries.
I would be giddy with this outcome!
I seem to recall another LHP out of Louisiana that did pretty well for us.
Ron Guidry?
he never pitched for us. But man could he pitch against us.
I think it was Chuck Finley
Got to see Ryan beat Guidry in around 1974. Killer game.
Correction- Angels 1-0, May 3, 1979
we’ll see what he does vs Coastal. That should be interesting. Coastal has been pretty dominant so far, outscoring opponents 24-9.
Which one would take less to sign here?
isn’t that the real question?
Please be true.
I don’t think that you draft to need at #2. Get the best guy regardless of position or age. Most of the top position guys are short stops and they end up all over the field by the time they make it up to the big team.
I think BPA when you’re drafting this high is a given. I think the real question is do you favor higher ceiling/lower floor or higher floor/lower ceiling?
This is one of the most confounding draft classes in some time in terms of BPA. Few can agree on who that is right now, as both the floor and ceiling estimates are super variable.
General agreement that the three prepsters of Holliday, Hernandez, and Willits have high upside, but also a fair amount of risk attached (and maybe long time horizons).
Arquette would be a mid first-rounder in recent draft classes (probably someone comparable to Moore, Braden Montgomery or Cam Smith last year), and the college lefties and Witherspoon are a notch below last year’s best (Burns, Smith). I think Anderson is nearing that tier, but recent TJ and short track record add question marks there as well.
HC/LF and its not close
Then you risk spending the #2 overall pick on a guy who never sniffs MLB. Seth Hernandez is the highest ceiling guy in the early part of the draft but Anderson and Arnold are far, far more likely to actually have MLB careers.
Hoping to see Anderson toss tomorrow but he’s looking pretty accomplished and upside of a No.2 so I’d be good with him. Otherwise, Seth.
No college hitters in this draft are worthy of a No. 2 IMO. Maybe high school SS preps.
I can be dead wrong, usually am, but my thinking was that not drafting to need is partly how this team is where it is.
Imho, if you can get a solid #2 or #3 starter that will play 4 to 6 years then you get that guy. Especially since Arte doesn’t pay much for pitching.
Knowing this team. They’ll sign a lower rated guy to save bonus dollars to use on guys in the lower rounds. How many high floor college guys that were considered safe bets have they already missed on?
for the 2025 AL Playoff chase, Bowden has suggested:
Angels — Acquire RHP Edward Cabrera from Marlins for RHP George Klassen and RHP Chris Cortez
I think getting Ryan McMahon 3b out of Denver could be helpful, but I wouldn’t give up Klassen in any case.
Bowden
The Angels (36-38) hope to stay in the race and want to buy at the trade deadline, so making a push for Cabrera makes some sense for them. Cabrera, 27, will be arbitration-eligible next offseason, which likely means Miami will test his trade market. He has a 3.81 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over 12 starts this season with 63 strikeouts in 59 innings. He ranks in the 85th percentile in fastball velocity and the 81st percentile in breaking run value. Cabrera, who has dealt with a variety of injuries in the past, is under team control through 2028.
The Marlins would get right-handers Klassen and Cortez in return. Klassen, 23, has a 5.65 ERA over 11 starts this season with 52 strikeouts in 43 innings. He was acquired by the Angels at last year’s trade deadline in the Carlos Estévez trade with the Phillies. Cortez, 22, was a second-round pick in 2024, and the Angels have transitioned the former college reliever to a minor-league starter. He has a 3.39 ERA this season over 13 starts with 59 strikeouts and 43 walks in 63 2/3 innings. If his command and control improve, he profiles as either a back-of-the-rotation starter or possibly a high-leverage reliever.
That trade makes no sense from a baseball perspective. The starting staff has actually been a strength for the team.
yes it is odd. we are the only team to use just 5 staters so far.
and we have a bit of depth here too. that’s why I like drafting Arquette.
Arquette wtih a Hit Tool ranking of 50, going back the 2024 draft, you had Travis Bazanna and JJ Whetherholt at 65, Condon and Kurtz at 60. Not saying Arquette is bad but he is the best of a lackluster bunch of college hitters.
Has it? The Angels are 21st in starter ERA, 25th in FIP and 27th in xFIP.
And they’ve been extraordinarily lucky with pitcher health this season, relative to both other Angel seasons. That’s objectively the most positive thing about the rotation, and there’s not a little luck in that.
I think the Bowden trade is completely ridiculous – the Marlins would never accept that return for 3+ years of an affordable mid-rotation arm.
But the Angels’ rotation depth is also very over-estimated. Anderson is already regressing, it’s hard to expect consistency from Hendricks (and both are gone after this year). We’re hoping that Koch’s new change grip turns around a 5.4 ERA season. An injury to Kikuchi or Soriano would likely send a rotation staff in the bottom third of most MLB metrics to a rotation in the bottom three.
On the outside chance the Angels could surmout five teams for a third wild card spot, investing in the rotation (and beyond this year too) would be a sensible contribution to that. SP heath isn’t going to be an asset forever.
Based on results it has been. The teams QS (6/3) count has been ranked 8-12 in mlb for much of the season while currently tied for 5th in innings per start.
When the team has suffered blowout losses (5 runs or greater) it’s been primarily due to the starters pooping the bed.
The problem with FIP & xFIP is the starters that are trying to get GBs and succeed and not getting strikes outs it doesn’t reflect that they achieved their goal.
I do realize there is a good amount of luck involved QS due to the number of walks allowed.
They’ve been extraordinarily lucky with pitchers health for 2 years now. Dan Plesac made this point that on one of the MLB round table discussions earlier in the year and credited Dom Chiti for that success. Apparently the Angels dont advocate throwing as hard as they can or over torqueing the ball with every pitch .( of course if you’re Ben Joyce you really dont have a choice since you’re chasing the gun)
Trade simulations are a waste of time exercise from the fantasy baseball folks. The next time I see one these that actual happens with the players they suggest, will be the first time.
Actually Jim Bowden is a waste of time.
Like Steve Phillips, another ex-GM hack
I think they both like the sound of their own voices.
I’m not getting rid of Klassen and Cortez this year.
wait…..we’re the ones chasing?
i hope so.
and looking at the potentials and needs, McMahon stood out to me – we need a 3b most of all for the AL pennant drive.
2025 playoff chase, and Angels?
I would love to see Angels make the playoffs, but don’t want them to trade prospects for rental players.
Remember 2023?
That team and this team had similarities:
— consistently couldn’t make contact with man on 3rd and less than 2 outs
— with bases loaded and less than 2 outs, best they could do is score 1 run on a routine basis
— starting pitchers routinely couldn’t make it past 6 innings
And the 2023 team had Shohei and Trout.
So, keep the players we have and if we make the playoffs, great.
But, this is not a playoffs team – average starting pitchers, below average defense, average hitting
From Fletcher – since Trout came back from the IL:
.323/.416/.477
I think that slugging % will be skewed because Trout will probably hit either just singles or HRs, until he’s comfortable with his knees. He will not do a hustle double, nor would run out for a triple. Like that hit to the wall to Judge yesterday – that would have been a double for vintage Trout.
Which is fine. The more important thing is he stays healthy and plays everyday. He’s already been IBB’d multiple times since he’s been back, so he’s still a feared hitter.
You beat me to posting Trout’s numbers since returning.
He’s probably around 75% healthy and looks great. Lending extreme credence to the notion that it is time for Trouty to became our full-time DH.
I am most happy about how, when he DHed in the past, he looked lost. Now he looks really locked in. That’s cool.
He just needs to come to terms with that. His public statements show how internally conflicted he is.
He openly admits that not being in the field allows him to manage / pace his running risk more, but he’s also determined to get back on the field.
I understand the reluctance to become half a horse in a field of ponies, but his fielding value is already negative, and running 2-3x more per game is going to take the bat back out of his hands.
The reality bites of infinite injuries has likely shaped his current mindset.
He’s looking pretty damn good. Cautiously optimistic.
To me, he looks like a serviceable shadow of his former self. Reminds me of Mickey Mantle. A phenomenal talent who shone so brightly at a young age but burned out early as his body broke down. Hope I’m wrong.
You’re correct. I’m just spit shinning here
I think this is a great way of putting it.
Yes. His days of full-time duty in the outfield are over. His body can’t handle it.
I think your right, Mike is just going to apply caution, no hustle doubles (we’ve seen this already) and burn around the bases. This behavior is why it is best to keep him in the 3-4-5 slot in the line-up with 5 making sense for me.
Yup. I haven’t seen him do the “take a huge hack and look mystified” thing at all since he got back. He’s taking what the pitch gives him a lot more and it looks great to me. I don’t even care if he slugs under .500 if he stays this way.
Stick with that approach, and if his buddies can get on base in front of him….. an uptick in RBI opportunities will make the CTPG Donkey’s happy.
He has plenty of pop without the overswing. IF he can sustain this as he gets his timing better and hopefully getting healthy, good things are likely. Short, quick swings are what made him Mike Fricken Trout!
His inability (or calculated decision) to run is precisely why he cannot bat leadoff.
Neto is slumping but, he’s the most fleet afoot of our starters.
Back to Trout, he’s looking pretty damn good. I think .250/.350 is very realistic.
Once he hits those benchmarks, I’ll start calling for .300/.400. 😛
Showdown at The Parking Lot
https://youtu.be/VqomZQMZQCQ?si=j6oYz6ktmEmhyEOE
And btw throwing at Tatis and Ohtani repeatedly isn’t baseball
I thought the Tatis pitch was a honest slipped pitch on a cutter. 100MPH pretty far up into Ohtani was bush league and dangerous.
Pushing.wav (https://www.lerctr.org/~transit/healy/Pushing.wav) – Doyers and Padres aggressively play footsie together “I’ve seen more pushing in the Men’s Room!”
Opposition to this post is expected, none the less here it is. History certainly repeats itself over and over again in MLB in this way. The Yankees ruled throughout the ’20’s, ’30’s, ’40’s ’50s and in the beginning of the ’60’s then turned into pumpkins in the field of play until King George turned their fortunes around in the mid ’70’s and once again ruled until the ’80’s rolled around and they reemerged again in the ’90’s and ’00’s. The point, good teams return to glory and bad teams just stay rotten to the core most of their history. What is clear with bot good teams (More Often) and bad teams (Less Often) is to return to the top is always done by rebuilding with young players, whether by draft or trade or as Free Agents. Only in rare occasions can this be disputed, so how should the Angels approach rebuilding.
The Angels operating under Arte Moreno have played the game of being competitive two ways, first relying on signing stars to pull the wagon with the wagon losing its wheels and then by mostly relying on college kids they could promote up fast with varying results. Neither way has proven a winning way to get to the promised land.
Currently the team is in a sorta/kinda position to make the 3rd playoff spot. To accomplish this goal that would mean “to hold on to what you got” mode. Possibly making the PO’s and then what? Get a participation trophy and say we had a winning record and made the PO’s. Oh Boy, exciting for as long as a popsicle lasts in 110* heat. The team would still have Neato, O’Hoppe and Schanny and then what.
or
Trade everything not tied down for younger players plus the drafted players and start building for a future run, a sustained run to make a WS. Yes, I like Ward and Tyler and some others also, but we know they can’t pull the wagon to get to the WS, and they are getting older on top of that.
No guarantees either way, but until new ownership comes along, we need a plan and buying into a youth movement seems the best way forward to build towards having a winning team for more than one season.
It’s a little misleading. Even though they are only a few games out of the 3rd wildcard, there are 5 teams in front of them and 1 team right behind them. Although it’s certainly possible, the likelihood of them finishing the season with a better record than all 6 of those teams, which is what would be required, is highly unlikely.
What is likely, as you imply though, is that they stay within striking distance, fooling themselves they have a chance, and not doing the things they need to do to move forward the next 2 years.
What I mentioned yesterday is that they have the potential to have a pretty decent pitching staff for the next two years but somehow they need to improve their run scoring next year without having a lot of money.
……we need a plan and buying into a
youthtalent movement seems the best way forward to build towards having a winning team for more than one season.If our drafts are not producing more than one above average MLB player, playing the youths is meaningless…without the intent to go full rebuilding (multiple seasons of 100+ losses).
Without signing above average free agents, the timeline for winning consistently will be longer.
We are likely NOT gonna satisfy you via free agency. Have you looked at who will be available as FAs the next couple years? It’s bleak if you’re looking for a guy you are pretty sure will be a solid addition…. who will also want to come play here, even if Arte offers large monies.
We’re gonna get some FAs who are contributors and even more FAs that are what we whine about and call cast offs and dumpster dives. THIS is why I’d just pay Neto now.
Hell. We talk a lot of shit, but have you looked at how “easy” it will be to replace Ward in FA?
I know Arte won’t do it, but I’d be happy to have a 70M payroll for a couple years if he put aside 150M a year to completely rebuild his development system. We will need home grown players and sexy prospects to trade for talent. Free agency isn’t the buffet it used to be.
I understand and agree regarding free agency. My primary point in mentioning free agency was conceptually if the team is not drafting and developing above average talent in increments of more than one player every year, the “winning consistently” goal is not achievable without the use of some other method to infuse talent (e.g. free agency) at the major league level.
Perry needs to hit a grand slam with this draft, or I’m not seeing the path to consistent 90+ win seasons in the next 6 to 8 years without free agents.
I’m with you. The team has a bad run differential, multiple holes in the lineup, and no minor league depth.
I’m glad they are only 2 games below .500 but a losing record is a losing record.
We could legitimately land a few prospects at the deadline.
Plus we have 4 of the top 104 picks in the draft and could likely add another pick in the mid 30s via trade. This draft is supposed to be light on top end talent but flush with likely MLB regulars. So, this is a good draft to have an extra pick.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DLGgohZqAQO/?igsh=MW5wMXp4ZTRrMDZjNw==
As Mr. Teeth brought up yesterday from BA
Consistency is key
Well duh.Just look at the combined winning percentages of our 4 upper level teams.
99-168 (.370!)
Not sure I’ve ever seen a more losier minor league system this late in the season.
But despite this ignominy, I wouldn’tt be surprised if Nelson Rada is brought up very soon ( as Soler goes on the IL) I mean if you are going to start Scott Kingery in Centerfield and flip Jo back to right field what more do you have to lose?
The Angels MLB team is sucking the talent from the minor league teams due to an incompetent FO.
Angels minor league players are moving at a lightning pace to the majors to fill the voids on the 26 man roster.
A weak major league team needs to steal talent from the minors to survive, leaving the minor league teams with table scraps. Hence the poor win/loss records.
The quick promotions may be killing the farm, but at scale it’s working out positively for the major league club
So far with 2 position players.
Yep. Neto and Schanuel are objective success stories.
I included Joyce in my mind too. His arm was gonna fall off regardless of where he pitched.
Moore doesn’t look out of place.
The bigger issue, which we’ve been discussing the last several days, is not hitting on picks past round 1.
our farm system is the SEC, from there, they are filtered in Rocket City
The “push em fast, our farm is the SEC” approach isn’t the end of the world. It actually makes sense if you want guys up fast and there really isn’t a big problem with wanting that.
But it only applies to picks in say the first 3 rounds. After that you will need to take the second best hitter from UTSA or TCU etc and they will need the standard three or four years on the farm.
And that’s a desert wasteland for us right now.
This accelerated prospect plan isn’t particularly new – we’re at least 6-7 years into it now, and five years into the Minasian era.
P12, you’re using the word “objectively” below. If we’re to be objective, it isn’t working at all. 2024 produced the worst record in franchise history, and despite the consolation of some rebounding this year, it’s still a sub-.500 club with a paper thin rotation and a volatile bullpen that is an injury or two from a long losing streak. Many team metrics predict eventual regression.
Graduating a 2-3 WAR first rounder roughly every other year, while having no meaningful reserves in a barren farm to compensate for inevitable injuries isn’t a recipe for a sustainable success. Given homegrown players are only cheap for about five years, the Angels are basically on a treadmill where they get meaningful excess value from roughly three players on their 40 man every half-decade.
Teams who rebuild and have 3+ year windows of success do it by graduating waves of players – 2-3 per season, plus lots of bench/pen depth, allowing more budgetary flexibility to compete in free agency and trade from systemic depth.
It’s the Houston model. Comparable payrolls, but Houston has fielded a winning team 10 of last 11 seasons. They’ve received more WAR from their homegrown players than any other club in that span, and the Angels have received less WAR than any other club. And that measures players who have graduated.
The Angels just aren’t graduating enough, in number or in aggregate value. Objectively, it’s not working.
Yup. I get it if the Angels want to draft a guy or two with the intention of fast tracking him. Especially later round relievers. Maybe they also fast track an international kid or two.
But the majority of the guys in the system need to have a plan applied to them that develops them for years…. right now it seems like they are there to keep 9 guys on the field and maybe luck into becoming “a prospect” who will then be rushed. It really minimizes what the org can get out of the farm.
PLUS, what really sucks is they won’t take on as many developmental players that could be really good. Not just Hernandez in the 1st round, but they can’t even decide they’ll take a really talented kid or Juco guy in say the 7th round and pay him because those guys are gonna need a solid few years of instruction.
On the other hand, if taking on development kids worked out the way the Eppler era did for my team I’d be scared too….
They’re also cheaters so fuck those guys. 🤘
Ahhhh yes hit me with that sweet sweet truth.
Like a shot of Narcan for all the hopium addicts running around this place lately.
Trade Ward, trade Jansen, trade whoever the hell we can.
I don’t mind a bad W/L record. I’ve seen plenty of prospect laden teams get bad records. It happens for lots of reasons. MiLB is very different from MLB that way. But our farm SUX. Literally every player, sans about six guys, is collapsing or already a burned out husk right now. Usually a farm has at least a few guys that are making a year of it. We don’t.
Fire ALL of the MiLB coaches above Rookie Ball? Cause you’ve got to have at least two or three guys with talent and ability out of those 100+ players and NONE of them can hit? I’m not a stupid drama squire, I don’t expect Perry to say anything other than “Our guys are good guys working hard” or something but I have to imagine we have a fairly frustrated Platypus at Katella.
The BA podcast that this is extracted from actually did discuss Rada for a bit. They were strongly skeptical of his current MLB viability, because he’s still struggling with loft and impact vs premium velocity, and despite his relative speed, he gets caught too much on the basepaths, which lowers his run efficiency.
I’m a Rada booster, so I want to get high on my own supply, but their concerns are rational, and light hitters on the Juan Pierre model don’t often survive for long. I do think the Angels have their own reservations as well, otherwise they’d already have called him up, given his strong spring training, and few satisfying solutions for CF.
The concerns about Rada are legit. It’s no big deal since he’s so young. I would much rather be stuck with Chris Taylor and Lurch Wade in the OF for this whole year than rush Rada up here to get trounced at age 20.
Though, to be honest, there’s not a ton of projection left with Rada. It’s a small body that isn’t going to add a ton of strength, and to the degree he fills out, he may lose some of the mobility that gives him some of the value he currently has, in an otherwise imperfect package.
It’s disappointing, but Longenhagen is likelier more right than wrong when he describes Nelson as “a small, glove-first outfield prospect whose stocky build makes him less projectable than his age might indicate.”
True. My expectation is that he’s Tony Kemp The Outfielder. But if he can’t hit MLB pitching right now (Likely) and needs to work on his running too why not let him cook more? His issues, which are sort of shrugable right now, will likely become glaring flaws against the Tigers or Doyers…. or Marlins.
Longenhagen’s take feels right to me. Hoping he can play a great CF while having some good on base skills but anything more is just fodder.
In a thin farm system like ours, Rada rightly garners attention. In a top 10 farm system, he’s an afterthought as an outfielder with no power. This is exactly why I’d consider trading Rada before he turns into a pumpkin.
Well Fletch believes there is another :
https://x.com/JeffFletcherOCR/status/1936021763156050208
Interesting Stats on Nelson Rada:
He has not faced a pitcher younger than him this year
He has better splits against LHP’s than RHP’s especially in his SLG pct (.386 vs .313)
Better splits at 2 Outs RISP : .367/..457/.433 vs,
All other at bats : .278/.389/.316
Granted a small sample size on the 2 Out RISP’s but the dude is not intimated by the moment. Now from a power stand point hes feckless but I could see a very young version of Otis Nixon and I would take that in a second even if he doesn’t immediately add any power.
Speed, OBP & Defense?
We need much more of all three attributes on this team.
The podcast was 5 minutes of nothing.
Team records really mean nothing if you’re promoting a players to the next level as a way to challenge them once they meet the metrics laid out for said players instead of letting them cook at a level even if they’ve met the metrics.
These promotions will usually depress a players season stats and can make their faults seem more extreme.
I personally review players performance in segments to see if there are improvements over the season.
On Rada, I don’t buy into the he won’t/can’t add more muscle argument, he’s the same age as high school draftees from 2024.
Those 5 minutes were in the context of a longer episode addressing improvements in several systems, and referencing a lot of work done on 360 assessments of all 30 teams.
There really are strong correlations with minor league W-L records and WAR of graduated prospects across larger data sets. But that doesn’t really matter – in this case, Cooper was using W-L and run differential simply as a shorthand proxy to emphasize the weakness of the Angels system, arrived at by more top-to-bottom evaluations by many scouts and analysts. He emphasized those points because it’s so very rare to see that coincidence of poor outcomes at every level of a farm system. (I’ve followed minor league baseball for at least a quarter of a century, and can’t recall it – and guys like Law and Longenhagen have said the same.)
With Rada, btw, it’s not age, it’s body type. You may not buy it, but he’s a 5’8″ stocky kid, and based on hundreds of other body types like his, they don’t tend to project for a lot more power, but they do project toward some future slowness of step. He doesn’t have the bat speed and contact tendencies to make him a midget unicorn. Adding more muscle in his case may not be uniformly positive.
But to the original point, the uniformity of MiLB experts on the weakness of the Angels system is striking, but so is the reflexive dismissal from many in the Angels fanbase that those experts are wrong.
Despite 11 years of a sub-.500 club, and every full-season minor league affiliate having the worst record and worst run differential in their respective leagues, and despite the Angels only producing one 4 WAR season among the last ten years of drafts (and fWAR and bWAR didn’t even agree on Neto’s 2024 – Angels fans are still arguing that the evaluators don’t get us.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I’m sorry did I say that I think the farm is better than it is? No I don’t believe I did.
I said that 5 minutes was a waste of time because it presented a very little bit of information with no context then pulled the my contacts reinforced my conclusions card.
Just because I disagree with someone’s evaluation or short hand they decided to use doesn’t mean I don’t see the flaws in our system/players but god forbid I have an opinion on players I see on a regular basis since I watch more MiLB games than Angels games.
Just a comment on a point raised yesterday about Ward being on a pace to hit 40 homeruns while having a .270 OBP. Tony Armas currently has the lowest OBP (.300) while hitting 43 homeruns in 1984. We could be watching history.
So why isn’t he he batting leadoff anymore?
Because he has to protect Mike Trout, or somebody, in the lineup.
I’m sick of ward as an angel, time to move on.
With Doyle having left Coastal for Mississippi and then going to Tennessee, he obviously has lots of guts but might be disposed to big money. Hence, he’s likely not the type to sign for less nor to remain in Anaheim for sentiment if he’s good. He’d maybe be a Yankee or Dodger long-term due to money if they hit on the pick. Just speculation and an observation.
That sounds like most athletes TBH. The ones who stayed here like Trout were paid, at the time, record setting money to stay.
By this logic the Pirates should’ve passed on Skenes.
Doyle aint Skenes . he aint even Skenes GF
Skenes was one in a lifetime. Doyle is one among a group of similar looking guys. Knowing the Halos, they likely will find the guy who will take less and be thankful. That’s generally the point.
He transferred from Air Force to LSU for the bag.
A once in a lifetime guy that is leaving PIT the first chance he gets (they should trade him).
If the Angels believe Doyle is right selection, you don’t worry about him maybe leaving in 7 years cuz he likes money.
FWIW, I am not a Doyle fan.
Skenes to angels as our ace for the world series run in 2028.
I always thought Vlad Jr. was the prodigal son. When in reality, Skenes is the one!
Local guy too. Let’s just hope his gf wants to move to California and the Dodgers and padres both suck by then.
If I recall, Skenes is not a free agent till ’29. And it would take at least $450m to sign him. I’ll take a pass even knowing how good he is.
First year of arbitration is that year, so not sure how that works. Can he leave if they don’t agree to an amount for his salary?
Nope. Arbitrator sets his salary and he can take it or go on unpaid leave till he’s an FA.
I think Skenes isn’t a free agent until 2029 and it will take at least $450m to sign him. As good as he is, I would pass.
Noted. Doyle transferred twice and there was no military commitment that went with going to Coastal or Mississippi.
There was a day when seeing a collegiate athlete transfer would raise an eyebrow, but not any more. It’s pretty common and the top schools will continue to attract talent more so now from other programs.
He doesn’t have much say in the draft. Only his signing bonus will vary team to team.
Doesn’t this apply to almost any potential first rounder? Don’t understand your point.
Angels got the Yankees at the right moment in time but that is how baseball works. All teams struggle at certain points. Part of baseball luck is how a team is playing when you fave them. Always fun to taunt my Yankee buddies.
And apparently the Halos Got the Doyers, Cardinals, Guardians, Rays, Mariners, Red Sox, Giants White Sox & A’s (x2) at the right moment as well .
After watching the A’s walk off the Houston and split their 4 game series in Sacramento, let’s hope we are now getting the Astros at the right moment.
Aaron Judge slumping a bit makes all the difference in the world.
Very true, but we did pitch him well.