It has been a thrilling week of playoff baseball with some razor tight games and big performances on baseball’s biggest stage. One of the things that makes baseball so unique is that you have no idea who will be up in the most crucial moments. In other sports you know the ball will be in the hands of the biggest star.
But in baseball, you get moments like this:
Yes, a dude who spent a decade in the minors came up with the hit that cemented the game for the Blue Jays and let the Yankees clubhouse crew know to start packing for 2026. Lukes has gone an unbelievable 5 for 7 with runners in scoring position for Toronto this October.
We also saw a guy who hit 55 home runs this season strike out a guy who hit 56 home runs this season. If you asked me 30 years ago if that would ever happen I’d have bet the farm against it. Yet, here’s the proof.
In the midst of all this playoff greatness and energy, Angels GM Perry Minasian held a press conference that inspired little confidence from the fanbase. While none of us expect a GM to fully lay out the team’s budget and plan, we did hope for a little accountability and sense of urgency. None of that was apparent.
Perry did put big pressure on the next manager of the Angels. But, ultimately, his complete lack of accountability along with Arte’s refusal to replace his college buddies in the executive suite are the storylines here.
The fans want a return to October baseball. We’ve talked about the weaknesses of the team, but let’s take a look at the actual math of a playoff team in 2025.
On the pitching front, the Toronto Blue Jays had the worst team ERA of all playoff teams with a 4.19. Most of the playoff field was half a run or so better than that mark. The Angels team ERA last year was 4.89, meaning they need to shave off roughly 0.75 earned runs per game to really be in the playoff conversations.
This is evidenced in the runs allowed category. The Angels pitching staff allowed a total of 837 runs, which is 116 more than Toronto and 146 more than Detroit. 162 games x 0.75 earned runs = 121 runs reduced. It is just math.
Offensively, the Cleveland Guardians throw a wrench into all of the calculations. They simply pitched so well and had such good numbers with runners on for the final 6 weeks of the season they won their division despite the second lowest OBP and third fewest runs scored in all of baseball.
The lowest run total of a playoff team other than Cleveland this year was the Padres at 702. The average total number of runs scored (including Cleveland) was 768. The Angels clocked in with 673.
Overall the numbers indicate the Angels are about 250 total runs away from being a playoff team. Yes, we focused on the -164 run differential but that only gets us to about .500. To play with the big boys, we need to find about another 100 runs scored or saved.
This is a long winded way of saying the Angels need significant improvement on all sides of the ball. And with a likely limited budget and weak free agent class, I don’t see a way to get from here to October in one off season. But we can get into the Angels off season maybe’s at a later date.
One thing I have learned over the years is to listen to Turk’s Teeth. He’s right far more often than he’s wrong when it comes to prospects. He’s on the Nelson Rada train and I’m right there with him.
Look at this:
For a team huge on strikeouts and low on contact approach hitters, Rada provides the opposite. We’re also a team with bad defense and Rada brings a great glove. He can’t single handedly be the answer, but he should be able to save some runs with his glove and turn some of the solo dingers into 2 run shots.
It is October, but I’m already tabbing Rada as my biggest storyline in Tempe.
A little later down the road, perhaps some in house pitching will emerge. FanGraphs updated their Top 100 list and two Angels starters are on it.
From around the league:
Aaron Judge says he might need elbow surgery. I know it is fashionable to hate in the MFY, but Judge is such a great dude that I always wish him well.
I posted Schwarber getting K’d above but he had a huge night on Wednesday to keep the Phillies alive, including this insane home run.
Reputations, nay legends, are made in October and Schwarber’s is as one of the post season’s greatest sluggers.
Enjoy your weekend and link what I missed. I’m finally healed up enough from my injury to get in the ring and trade some leather and I couldn’t be happier. I’m already sporting a nice bruise under my right eye and my wife is oh so happy about it, but that’s life. I’ll be helping my fighter prep for a rematch against the guy he faced in LA a month ago and am thrilled to be part of a camp again.
Other than that, I’ll enjoy family time, some playoffs and football, and probably watch Boots Ennis box. I hope you have a great weekend as well.
Ay dios mio!!!
🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮💩💩💩💩💩
With any luck, Arturo will cheap out and we’ll get someone else.
George Kirby was on the board when Billy Eppler drafted Will Wilson.
So was Corbin Carroll
I know you can look at any draft and see missed opportunities but this isn’t hindsight. Kirby was by far the best college arm on the board and Carroll was universally rated higher than Wilson.
Wilson was definitely a head scratcher pick.
Chase Shores says “Hold my Gatorade, I’m a relief pitcher picked in the 2nd round”.
I have a feeling JJ that it’s also bad decisions based on developmental time constraints. Hence why we’re always taking a lot of low ceiling 22 yr old college players over HS players, they totally lucked out on Zack Neto who was a small college guy who was definitely good enough to play at a SEC powerhouse program like Miss St or LSU.
This year’s already has a bad elbow and hasn’t thrown a pitch yet.
Kirby was top of my board in 2019.
I liked Carroll too, but the Angels had three straight drafts where they took tooled up prep outfielders (Marsh, Adell, Adams) in the early rounds and the system was starved for pitching, so Kirby was the move. (And there was a lot of college pitching in that first round.)
Wilson was an utterly baffling selection, on talent, ceiling and fit. Enough that I almost believe the rumors that Moreno had some hand in it.
Yet another thing he’s bad at.
INCREDIBLE!!!
🤢🤮
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/46555875/pujols-meets-angels-managerial-opening
Ugggghhh, from Washington to Pujols- my Angel shitshow nightmare is only getting worse. Is Arte getting dementia?
I know how much you disliked Washington steelgolf. But yes, you are about to see a manager who is worse. Alot worse.
Arte very well might be the worst owner in American team sports.
My dislike for Washington was as a manager. He would have been fine as just a field coach.
I get that… and I somewhat agree with it.
I have seen a lot of Halo managers over the years. Wash was fine. Maddon was fine. The roster was the issue under those guys. Ausmus I didn’t understand. I won’t go through the full list.
Managers aren’t wizards. And Perry is a GM from the GM-controls culture so managers now do even less than before.
Maddon and Wash are both better and more qualified than Albert or Hunter. If the decision goes to an ex-player that is short on experience, maybe they get lucky but more likely it will be a flash in the pan and then three years of why did we do this?
Of course, I expect the latter.
I agree with all this.
Maddon and Washington were good managers – they just couldn’t spin gold from straw.
My dislike of Washington as a manager is through the lens of business and expected results. The age of Washington when he was popped in a hotel room with cocaine and a hooker, tells me that he makes very, very questionable personal decisions. Now, if I have a company, team, etc., that I am looking to hire a manager to make this company/team successful, I would not choose the candidate who makes very, very questionable personal decisions. I would be hiring a person FOR their decision making. And his tenure here and the results have backed up my assessment, though it can’t wholly be pinned upon him. The team was still demonstrably worse in 2024, and was very lucky in 2025 to still end up one game worse than the 2023 Nevin record when they were not lucky at all.
He is no longer the owner of the Clippers if you haven’t heard ….
Guess what current owner in this town has taken his place however? Yep, we talk about him everyday here.
I don’t think Balmer is a bad owner… He has had some bad luck with injuries (alot actually)… And he did oversee the franchise’s first ever appearance in the Western Conference Finals.
I’m not calling out Balmer, at least he’s making a bigger effort to win than Sterling ever did with his marketing the visiting team over his own tactic. I’m saying our owner has taking over the most hated owner in this town, I remember when Charger’s owner Dean Spanos held that label for a while until he hired Jim Harbaugh. He’s 78 yrs old and he’s up against the clock, why doesn’t he just do the right thing and HIRE BETTER PEOPLE!!!
Is there any doubt?
The worst of all the known candidates.
Nice going Art*ro!!! What is your team doing right now since the 2016 season 10 straight losing seasons…..
“….Angels are about 250 total runs away from being a playoff team. Yes, we are focused on the -164 run differential but that only gets us to about .500. To play with the big boys, we need to find about another 100 runs scored or saved……”
Here’s a thought:
—- Rengifo (and his 12 errors for a 0.972 fielding percentage, not including misplays that weren’t ruled as errors) isn’t on the roster.
—- Stop playing players out of position (no more putting Peraza at 1st base, when he’s rarely played 1B, and made 4 errors in 108.2 innings, with 0.963 fielding percentage )
—- Have O’Hoppe learn how to play catcher in the minors, and get an above average fielding catcher for 2026.
Even if that catcher can’t hit much, it can’t get get much worse than what O’Hoppe did in 423 ABs in 2025: 0.213BA, 19HR, 43 RBIs.
Heck, Martin Maldonaldo only had 147 ABs, with 0.204BA and 12 RBIs.
O’hoppe took 9 at-bats to average 1 RBI
Maldonaldo took 12 at-bats to average 1 RBI
Just food for thought.
I hope lots of changes are made to the roster for 2026, or else the 2026 season will resemble 2025.
They do have a nice catching prospect
Yes, his name was Quero and he now plays for the White Sox. Minasian gave him away for a terrible rental.
MLBTR reporting Pulos has the job if he wants it. Article also calls Arte the GM so not sure how credible this is haha. Also odd to leak this if you don’t know he’s even going to accept. Classic Halo madness
And yes low hanging fruit joke is that Arte is the GM
Why in the world if you’re Albert would you want this. It will only end badly for you.
I think it is like the GM job here. You take it to get it on your resume. Nobody expects you to be able to actually win. If you do, you are a genius. When you don’t, the blame goes on Arte.
Would Albert report to Minasian or vice versa?
Soon we’ll be able to see how all kinds of MLB 26 year olds want to come to The Heim and play for Pujols with Trout! It’s gonna be the tits!
.295 20 hrs 92 rbis and 30 STOLEN BASES!!!!! FOR A FAT GUY
vs Schanny’s stats which pale in comparison.
My Angels shit show nightmare continues.
just read this… If Rendon is unable to play but is not released then we pay him $38mil to do nothing. If he *is* released we pay him $38mil to do nothing. So why not release him?
“There is also some sentiment around the organization that the best move would be to simply release him over the winter, freeing up the 40-man roster spot and ridding them of any potential distraction if he’s around next year. I doubt that would happen, but it wouldn’t shock me.”
I thought the 60-day cleared a 40-man spot?
The 60 day IL goes away the day after the World Series and stays until Spring Training so he’d hog a roster spot all offseason
I agree, just be done with him and don’t invest any team resources.
If he can play let him platoon with Moncada? Assuming better D than Rengifo. I think at this point we are not sure if Rengifo is coming back? Would be nice to have Arreaz instead of Rengifo, but he’s 3x the cost.
Moncada is a free agent.
I’d prefer having the roster spot.
Hard to just cut bait on $38 million, I’d imagine. Yes, the odds of getting any return are slim but for $38 million I can understand Arte wanting to hold on a pray a little longer.
If Pujols is, in fact, going to be the next “manager”, then why not put Rendon on his coaching staff? What harm could it do that isn’t already being done? You can “coach” injured, and we know Rendon will be injured, and Arte could finally get Rendon on the field during his contract term.
What doesn’t scream “Angels baseball” like a $38M a year infield coach?
Yeah, Rendon would have a less than 5% chance of making it out of Spring Training without going on the IL. How many years has it been since he actually played baseball, at least in a scrimmage or practice atmosphere? It would take him a year just to get back in baseball condition and get his hitting (or lack thereof) back. Just in time for his contract to expire and retire from baseball.
looking through the MLB team stats for 2025 I was surprised to see we had the lowest batting average of anybody at .225. We did have more hits than Cleveland so we were only 29th there. Amazing that Cleveland made the playoffs. We also had a higher OBP than Colorado.
I figured I’d look because one announcer said Milwaukee plated 34% of its baserunners.That’s not so astounding. The main thing is they *had* baserunners. They had a total of 1987 hits + walks. We had 1693. This ties in with Jeff’s point about needing to find runs. Milwaukee, with their extra 300 baserunners, scored 133 more runs than us. We need to get on base! …. as we’ve all said, all season long. Lots of HRs, lots of Ks, not enough singles or doubles.
Their pitching and defense were also far superior and not even comparable to us. They had way better players.
that, sir, is the truth!
Ummm, I would not say they had better players… Better PITCHERS yes. But our bats blow them out if the water… Once you get past J-Ram they don’t have anybody who scares you… Yes, Kwan gets on base, but he does not scare you. Past Ramirez and Kwan it is very slim pickings in Cleveland.
The reason they won is because of their pitching, plain and simple.
My comment was referring to the Brewers, not the Guardians.
Don’t look at the starting pitching. Your day will really go south if you do. Literally the worst in the AL in almost every category. Certainly not helped by Silent C who should not be in a starting rotation next year.
To be league average this SP would need to strip out Hendricks, Anderson and Jack K and then add three 4.2 ERA starters. Then we might have league average starting. That is how bad the starting pitching is.
yeah, thanks. That made my day. Last in the AL in whip, last in ERA, last in ERA+. Gave up the most walks in the majors.
oh, before I forget…I went to a Phillies chat group last night and they’re all mad and want to tear it down. Get rid of Harper! He’s washed! In that state of mind I don’t think the fans there would take kindly to trading for Trout.
Ohtani is washed. He was 1 for 17. That should make Phiilies fans feel better.
Combined with his 2 for 19 World Series last year that’s a concern about his clutch hitting
Looks like organizational philosophy is Three True Outcomes
The problem is that in our case it is two, strikeout or homer, no walks.
It looks like Perry was trying to build a Three True Outcomes team and he did it by sorting his excel sheet by HR but forgot to check the OBP.
Sorry if Im late on this one: Former Red Sox player Mike Greenwell passed yesterday from cancer. Sad, some of you may remember him, one of the best left handed hitters during his play in 80-90’s. Picture perfect swing from step to stroke thru the zone, gotta be good if Ted Williams liked it. I made my son in little league watch old footage of Greenwell batting to help with his balance. God Bless. Man we could sure use a high average lefty hitter like him today.
I should have put that in the links. He was a great player and from what I’ve read he took a lot of time with fans.
Thanks Jeff, he was a nice guy. Saw him at a card show back in 90 signing paid autographs. Promoter was ushering him off and he broke away to stop and take pictures with fans. I miss the old school contract hitters, hard to find these days.
Everything else hinges on this:
Arte’s refusal to replace his college buddies in the executive suite
Until that changes, nothing changes.
Well ok but an additional $100 million payroll wouldn’t hurt, just saying.
Math. California Public Education. Shut up nerd. Buy me names I can brag about. Data is lies. It’s how you feel that matters. I feel like your math is stupid. Diploma. We are good. Pay me. Great job is done.
We hit a lot of Solo Shots.
We need people on base when those things happen.
We hit 3 HRs while opposing team hits 2 and we lose 5-3.
Yes.
We are stuck with the HR or bust trio of Trout, Ward, and Adell. Soler isn’t quite as bad, but assuming he’s healthy that’s more HR and K’s.
The reasonable thing for Perry to do position player wise is focus on defense and OBP. If we had good gloves at CF, 3B, and 2B that got on base at a reasonable clip that would help both equations.
In addition to improved pitching, that is an excellent observation regarding position players and Rada hopefully addresses one of those.
I know it’s a dream based on a dream ignoring roster reality but I wish they’d do something crazy like trading Ward, mixing a DH/OF combo of Trout/Soler/Adell/Rada/Teodosio and managering the shit out of it.
In my dream Teodosio gets really good at bunting and making contact so he can hit like .230. You can start games with a line up that includes both Trout and Soler. Then replace the lumbering OF with Teodosio or Rada later in games. If Soler starts at DH and Trout in LF where he should be then Trout moves to DH and Teodosio/Rada to OF.
Or start with the defensive OF and switch to power later in a game. But have the ability to look like….
Adell (RF), Rada/Teo (CF), Trout (LF) Soler (DH)
Adell (RF) Teo/Rada (CF/LF), Trout (DH)
Soler (RF) Teo/Rada (CF), Trout (LF) Adell/Other (DH)
This accepts the fact that we can’t trade Soler for anything and he is a reality. It let’s us have a max-beef line up that doesn’t care about defense if we want, or have a very good defensive outfield with Trout at DH but little power, or options in between.
This is what the Rays do. Bust out crying about Soler on the grass every now and again all you want, but it is the type of option some teams go with sometimes. But the manager’s got to be willing to switch all these guys around like a hockey line in a lot of games.
Line change!
Honestly, I didn’t find Soler embarrassing in RF. Concern with him is availability.
Trade I’m kicking around for my off season piece:
Adell to Cincy for Ke’Bryan Hayes, TJ Friedl, and Santillan.
Let’s be real, Cincy doesn’t want the Hayes contract. 4/36 is a bit steep for a guy with a poor bat but he brings an absolutely elite glove to the hot corner and is still young. Offensively, he’s about recent Luis Rengifo. They can move Marte from RF to 3B and be fine here.
Friedl fixes CF for 4 years. He’s graded as perfectly adequate with the glove, has a career OBP of .344 and a career OPS+ just a tad above 100. He’s the type of solid, inexpensive player we need.
And Santillan has 3 years of control remaining.
The question is it is realistic for Cincy? They need power and Adell is pretty cheap for 2 years, so possibly.
No way in hell you trade Adell for K. Hayes.
Yeah, I like Hayes’s defense, but Adell is just going into his prime as a slugging stud.
I’m with you on Teo, He can cover all three OF positions like Kelly Leak in Bad News Bears, and he’s got elite speed if he can get into the .230 range for steals.
Im not sure Perry has many cards he could or should play with Position Players. I think everyone is back (C, 1b, 2b, SS, RF, LF) and Rada starts in CF
He has an extra DH and needs a 3B, but the rest is set i think.
He needs to nail starting pitching this Winter if Arte gives him a budget.
Who is back at 2B? Moore?
The team needs to add a credible 2B and give Moore a chance to earn a job.
Yes CMo, but Perry did hint at competition.
Ok but I’d don’t expect anything significant here aka something like Drury.
I hope every cent goes to pitching.
Bringing everyone back from a losing team that had good luck and health is a losing proposition.
And now adding Pujols as the new manager = Shitshow.
Totally agree, as if Rob Deer was our hitting coach last year. We need to inquire about signing Luis Arraez for 2nd base. I understand he is only a one dimensional player who hits singles, avg defense, can’t steal. But he offsets the Ward, Adell, Trout swing/miss power bats. Also Rendone is done, I would like to see Moncada back.
IF Arraez could pull off average defense I’d love to have him. This is a sight full of grown men who weep bloody tears at the sight of Rengifo. We can’t do Arraez at 2B to them, the dehydration could kill them.
lol. But beware, Geefo gonna end up being a superstar on his next team. It always happens with us. What’s up with that Pomeranz, and Wentz those relievers were supposed to suck.
They escaped the bad juju before it consumed their desire to play baseball…. and walk without a limp….
Jeff – So….you are saying that all the Angels have to do to become a playoff team is lower team ERA by approximately 1 run and also score 250 more runs?
The 250 runs can come on any combination.
But the meme still applies.
More Runs? Time for
Awesome comments. One can say whatever they want but the numbers are the numbers and they tell the story. You could say you are what your numbers say you are. We need a lot of help on both sides of the ball and I agree it’s too much to achieve in one year. We need lot’s more pitching, more quality support players and the addition of some stars. Rendon’s contract will finally be off the books after this year but it’s difficult to see us winning while we’re still paying Trout. Trout is providing 1 WAR as a DH. We have to be better off moving him and paying whatever portion of his salary we have to. Is there another team that would even want him for any amount of money?. I would love to see him get traded to the Phillies and play LF and go to the post season. It is unlikely we rebuild like we should and the addition of Rada, although significant, will not be nearly enough to turn things around. I love the fact that Perry gave Washington the chicken %$& roster but it’s somehow Washingtons fault he couldn’t magically turn it into chicken salad. The numbers you have provided say it’s the roster stupid. Great job today Jeff.
Thanks.
As you say, it’s just math. And the great thing about baseball is the math is available.
And hiring a great manager is not going to get us 250 runs.
I think it’s too simplistic to say 250 runs = playoffs. It’s how and when those runs are scored (such as close and late) as well as the ability to pitch and hold leads. While math does apply – it’s not quite that simple.
251?
There’s always the macro vs. micro when it comes to baseball stats and that applies here. Cleveland being horrible at OBP and runs scored proves it.
But this does give a concise picture of what the overall body of work of playoff teams looks like. And the Angels are severely lacking in all phases.
You can’t PLAN to have the Guardindians September.
That’s the point, you can’t plan on being the outlier.
I understand your thoughts but while there are no guarantees, the single highest correlating metric to the number of wins for a team is the number of runs they score and the more games you win, the greater the likelihood of making the post season. It really is mostly about the math. There are certainly outliers, but the rule is all about runs scored and run prevention. We have lousy pitching, lousy defense, and we don’t score enough runs. Once we address those things, we can worry about the things you mention.
So let’s try the Brewers approach!
What we’re doing right now certainly isn’t working.
Depends on what you mean. The Brewers are misunderstood a little by some here. They are a really good team. Although they did not hit for a lot of power, they did get on base far more often than we did so they made less outs. They still have 2 hitters better than our best hitter and no position player with negative WAR. They were far superior defensively as well. The WAR for their starting 9 is 21.7 compared to our 12.28. They are nearly twice as good and that’s before you talk about their pitching which is literally light years better than us and not even comparable. It’s not about hitting HRs or not Hitting HRs, they have way better players on their entire roster.
To be more like the Brewers, we would need to replace everyone but Neto and Ward from last year, and pretty much all of our pitchers both starting and bullpen with much better players. We’re that bad and they are that good.
The Brewers could literally bring everyone back and replace their 1B and SS with league average players, and be better than they were this year.
What if I said JOE MADDON?
Oh wait…. it’s not 2018 anymore…. poop.
Great comments today. This is also the weekend where we see what the Brewers are. Can they be the team they looked like while winning the first two games or are they the club that combined for 3 runs in 18 innings during the last two games? The latter club looked a lot like the Moneyball A’s losing 3-2 to the Yankees after winning the first two games many years ago. We will see.
And, as feared, the Dodgers won proving yet again that when you sign numerous MVPs, outspend for the best pitching available, defer contracts in ways that shouldn’t be allowed, etc., you can buy wins in the regular season and playoffs. We will hope one day for a level playing field in baseball while surmising it either won’t happen or will take 20 years.
Thanks. I’ll obviously be rooting for the Brewers/Cubs winner in the next round and I’d prefer it be the Brewers.
FOR BOB!
For UECK!!!!
All you have to do is buy every staff ace that comes on the market other than Freid and Burnes and then use some of those guys as pen arms in the play offs and you win the “daddy bought me a trophy” competition. Is easy.