I just don’t have time today to make the links. Sorry.
Photo credit: Rex Fregosi
I just don’t have time today to make the links. Sorry.
Photo credit: Rex Fregosi
I see what he’s doing, giving Schanuel a night off, moving everyone up a spot. Wade at 1b
For those with access to the trade simulator, what is the value of someone like Sandy Alcantara? I see him as a buy low option for us with an eye for 2026 since he just came back from Tommy John surgery this season. Even though his stats don’t look good, per Statcast his main pitches (4 seam, sinker, & changeup) all have very similar velocities and movements as they did in his 2022 Cy Young year. Plus he is only 29 years old.
I feel like it is worth a shot considering we are not very good at developing true aces and no one in the organization is really a true #1 pitcher.
Sandy is under contract until 2026 as part of a 5 year $56 million contract with a club option for 2027. That sounds pretty cheap compared to what it would take to sign a true ace in free agency, yet Miami might be open to getting rid of the contract considering they are not competing and have cheap ownership.
Thoughts?
We’d have two Soriano’s accept Soriano would be the best Soriano… and we don’t have the prospects to get him.
What is his trade value in the simulator? I was hoping it wasn’t too high due to his performance so far this year.
15.7
Roughly the current value of Adell, Detmers or Moore.
But Alcantara is the sort of player that tends to break the sim at the deadline, as teams are willing to pay more for historically useful pitchers due to scarcity and contending clubs with deeper farm systems.
Yesterday was quite an entertaining game, made all the more better by 2 Trout HRs (and, of course, the win as Angels came back from multiple deficits).
For today:
Corbin has faced Angels 4 times, going 2-0, 4.87 ERA, 19Ks.
His most recent appearance was in April: 5-1/3 innings, giving up 1 run to the Angels, with a win.
For the season, he’s 5-7, 4.18 ERA
Kochanowicz has faced Rangers 3 times, going 0-3, 5.09 ERA
His recent appearance against Rangers was in April: 4-2/3 innings, giving up 4 runs, with a loss.
For the season, he’s 3-8, 5.42 ERA
Given the above stats – somehow, the oddsmakers have the game in favor of the Angels.
How?!?
Maybe it has something to do with Corbin, in his last 5 games, giving up 35 hits and 17 runs over 27 innings. That’s worse than Silent K’s 23 hits and 13 runs over 24 innings.
in my heart I’ve been hoping we could go 5-2 in this stretch to be .500 at the break. So let’s win tonight, then take 2 of 3
Worthwhile read from Fangraphs on Doyle vs Arnold (Anderson gets frequent mentions as well):
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jamie-arnold-vs-liam-doyle-fast-moving-college-lefties-go-electric/
As I expected, FG is a bit hotter on Doyle than others – it’ll be interesting to see where he lands when they (finally) update their draft rankings this weekend.
True that.
Kiley McDaniel of ESPN mentioned poor performances down the stretch as one of scouts’ reservations about Doyle. (“Scouts still hesitate given the effort of his delivery, his heavy fastball usage, the fact that his stuff can fade a bit late in games and his poor performances down the stretch.”)
But McDaniel also lines up Arnold and Doyle side by side at #5-6, and says it’s effectively a coin-flip between them.
“I have Arnold and Doyle ranked back-to-back on the pro top 100 because they’re very different versions of a generically similar thing: an accomplished college lefty starter.”
MLB Pipeline and BA are a bit more reserved about Doyle, Keith Law and Fangraphs are boosters, and Kiley/ESPN falls in the middle.
it could be argued that Arkansas was the #2 team in the country (or maybe even #1) but it makes me uncomfortable that Doyle struggled against the best competition. Meanwhile both Arnold and Anderson came through.
Doyle wins on his fastball and intensity, I like Kade’s overall demeanor and Arnold seems to be the smoothest and help in Anaheim the earliest. Highest ceiling is Hernandez.
Here’s a good assessment of Jamie Arnold that makes me feel pretty good about him as a fallback if Anderson goes 1-1:
assuming whoever we pick immediately slots in as our #1 prospect ahead of Dana, also the #47 pick would entered as #2 in the system. Is this correct? Maybe Dana is equivalent to a #47 pitcher?
Really impossible to say, since there’s such a wide range, even this late, of who the Angels might take. But any of the top 8 ranked players would slot into the Top 100 of prospects nationally, so unless the Angels go way off the board, their selection at #2 will be their number one prospect come August.
Dana’s value is in freefall. He’s fallen off all the national lists, and scouts are beginning to write him off as a future rotation piece.
I admit, my issue with Doyle is the rah-rah stuff but his FB is just frigg’n nasty.
Still hoping Perry does not overthink it and goes local kid, Seth Fernandez. Best upside in the draft class.
Rengifo and Soler are the worst hitters in the league at their positions. 2B, 3B, and RF are the big holes in the line up, and catcher is not far behind except for HRs. No matter what one thinks of Neto, Schanuel, Adell, Trout, and Ward, it’s the other 4 spots that are killing us.
Yes, getting Moncada back would be huge for this team if he could stay healthy.
Eugenio Suarez will decline at some point, but if we could snag him for 2-3 years as a free agent this off season, that could be huge.
Suarez, Neto, Moore, Schanuel across the infield could be dynamic offensively.
I agree. He would be the biggest single impact player we could acquire. If Soler is still here, there is always a possibility for him to have a better year next year although he’s so bad defensively. I would not mind seeing Paris in CF and Jo in right next year.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Paris hit above .200 for a couple months before making plans involving him….
Likewise. I have not scouted Paris since his demotion but with horrible whiff rates, I think this will hover over him for his entire career. That is a difficult thing to overcome and this is his 5th year of pro ball??
Ok, if you’re writing him off, then let’s just trade him and get him out of the organization.
Not poking at your suggestion to bring him up but I just checked his last month of stats, have you seen this:
AB (88) Runs (7) Hits (10) HR (1) RBI (3) Walk (5) Strike Outs (49) SBs (2) AVE (.114) OBP (.170) SLG (.182)
Needs more time on the Barbe’. Just saying, contract rates are hard to improve upon. Coaching might help but I think it is more about ability. I was fooled earlier in the year, I really thought the Halos had something. Some dude on BBA Podcast in mid-April, said that he was not buying Paris as a breakout as his whiff rates were bottom echelon. Sure enough.
I understand. I was not suggesting bringing him up. I was talking about next year and hopefully he works some of this stuff out but Adell was just as bad for years. Parris has stolen over 20 bases combined and has only been thrown out twice. He still has as much or more WAR than some of our regulars including Trout. He was leading the team in defensive runs saved when he was sent down. He hits for power. He has a lot to offer if he can work things out, And I don’t know if he can but he’s only 23 and is worth hanging in there with for now. We have a whole team of players with high strikeout rates who can’t play defense or run the bases like he can. That’s really all I was saying, And for all the love, Moore is in the same boat.
Didn’t Arturo veto a trade of Andy Pages and Stripling for Rengifo. That hasn’t aged well.
It was Stripling, Joc, and Pagas for Rengifo and others that were never revealed before Arte blew it up
Obviously they were gonna just give us Pages and Arte blew it up. That’s why I walk through life looking for puppies to ridicule.
After it being mentioned that .267 is the new .300., I checked. Zach and Nolan are tied for 64th in the majors at .267. There are 8 players hitting over .300, all in the AL. There are currently no NL players hitting .300. In 1968, Carl Yazstremski was the only AL player to hit .300. Hitting would appear to be depressed unless everyone is just swinging for the fences, which might be the case.
No NL hitter over 0.300 — Wow.
Just a month ago, Freddie Freeman was hitting in the 0.370s.
Just looked up his stats right now, and he’s at 0.299.
Tony Gwynn played 20 years, and hit above 0.300 in 19 of those years.
His only year batting under 0.300 — 1982, his rookie season, in which he played 54 games.
The only other player, besides Gwynn, to have played 20+ years and have 19+ years hitting over 0.300?
Ty Cobb – 24 seasons played; 23 of those – hitting over 0.300
The more I look the more I’m blown away by Gwynn (and Cobb). Musial 17, Honus Wagner 16. That’s how hard it is when those two great hitters come up short of Gwynn in that stat
Speaking of Stan Musial —- Albert Pujols is another beloved Cardinal, and future 1st ballot HOF; but, he tailed off badly during his time with us. He played 22 years, and batted 0.300 in just his first 10 seasons.
As a matter of fact, he left the Cardinals with 0.326 BA, and batted so poorly with us that his career BA dropped to 0.296.
If we sell enough beans and chicken-backs, joining Trout’s exclusive club can be in reach…
The cost of a membership at Trout National – The Reserve, Mike Trout’s new private golf club in Vineland, NJ, is not publicly available. However, it is known that the club is by invitation only and is considered highly exclusive. According to GolfPass, joining fees for similarly exclusive golf clubs can be around $1 million, with annual dues potentially reaching $85,000.
Probably alot of current and retired pro athletes will become members, I suspect.
And not as many Judge Smails.
Why don’t the Halos hire Dave Martinez as manager?
Monty makes decisions that even I know are questionable (and I am by no means an authority on baseball).
In 2018-2019, the LA Kings hired Willie Desjardins specifically to be terrible. The players had given up and they were just going for a high draft pick.
The current Halo team deserves better than a lackluster manager, especially after Ward, Rengifo, Anderson and Moncada are traded.
Teach them to play “the right way,” like Wally kept saying last night.
Vegas is evidently convinced we’re taking Doyle at No. 2. Only player with negative odds.
I feel like there’s money to be made here. Arquette looks super juicy at +4500 and they don’t even list Willits, so the “any other” at +650 looks nice too.
MLB Draft
MLB Draft 2025 – 2nd Overall Pick
Kade Anderson +170
Jamie Arnold +1200
Liam Doyle -165
Any Other Player +650
Ethan Holliday +1200
Aiva Arquette +4500
Seth Hernandez +700
JoJo Parker +2500
Kyson Witherspoon +7500
Billy Carlson +7500
Let’s say the Nats take Kade. Personally I’m spooked by prep stars. Holliday could turn out to be another Witt Jr or he could turn out to be Josh Vitters. Vitters was the California prep player of the year in 2007, went to the Cubs at #3, made it to the majors 5 years later, hit .121 in his 2 months with the club and that was it for his career.
I’d hate to have to wait until 2030 to find out if a guy is a contributor or a bust. BTW, I’m taking about Vitters because I’ve just started my research on the last 20 years of the draft so his name popped up
The Holliday family is an insanely competitive baseball family. Those kids have grown up with a batting cage in their home since they could toddle to a sippy cup. It’s hard for me to imagine that Ethan can’t or won’t make adjustments given he’s been steeped in the culture all of his life.
It’s extremely easy to identify failed prospects – in every draft class – but statistically, prep bats have been one of the most successful draft archetypes in the past twenty years. They don’t fail more than other prospect types.
And Jackson Holliday, drafted as a high schooler in 2022, made it to the MLB in under two years, and is an above average MLB player less than three years since drafting.
That’s no guarantee that Ethan follows the course of Jackson and Matt, but it’s a more proximate example than Vitters, imo.
OK. I’m going to quit turning off the game when the Halos get behind. Last night I turned it off and listened to music while I worked on a complicated airplane model (TBD Devastator US Navy torpedo bomber) so I missed all the fun. I’m a believer now. This team actually comes back at the foe again and again.
Actually, it sucked. Big time. TBDs were the planes flown by Torpedo Squadron 8 from the USS Hornet in the Battle of Midway. Entire squadron was shot down, only one survivor. The pre-war color schemes were cool, though.
So, our boys have given us 26 runs in the past three games, and won two of three, I didn’t have that on my bingo card.
Was nice to hear the Wally Joyner interview on the radio broadcast last, I’ve always liked him.
Halos averaged 6 runs per game against the mighty TX pitching that had been strategically setup weeks beforehand for this series. Very impressive.
What you don’t realize is that it’s all been a gambit to lead us to the slaughter tonight in the most important of important 4th game of the series. It’s what the Rangers have been angling for this whole time. See, they do smart stuff, while our managers are incredible stupids. I can’t stop bringing it up because I’m so friggin smart. we need to fire Wash. And Monty. And the coaches. And kill Brad Ausmus probably. And bring back Joe Maddon because he’s a zanny/pretentious old white know it all…. then we will finish just 3 games under .500.
I don’t understand why TX would strategically set up their pitching against the Angels? Both teams are below .500.
So the Rays gave the Orioles the #37 pick for Bryan Baker. So basically Reid Detmers but right handed is what a draft pick costs right now.
Oddly enough, the #37 ranked prospect is a guy Turks and I both like, Quintin Young. I dunno. I want more picks, but I sort of wonder….
I LOVE Young’s power potential and all around athleticness. He’s a 50 grade prospect. But we can get a 50 grade prospect in a trade for a guy we want to keep a lot less than Detmers.
Examples include Padres #7 prospect OF Kaveres Tears. Cubs #7 SS Fernando Cruz. Rays #9 OF Brailer Guerrero. Brewers #9 OF Braylon Payne or 3b/1b Luke Adams.
You can get a guy like that in a Ward or maybe even Jansen trade and keep Detmers and that might be better…
But I also love them picks…
Yes this. Draft picks are awesome. Potential is awesome. Nos. 30-40 picks more often than not fail to stick as Top 10-caliber prospects. Rather have the bird in the hand.
But if that “bird” is a good-not-great bullpen guy? I’d say most bullpen guys also are not value-equivalent to top 10-caliber prospects.
If they were, teams would never trade for young talent because guys like Fullmer, Strickland and Garcia (bullpen arms with similar track records and usage to Baker) are too valuable from a now-perspective.
For teams out of contention like Baltimore, I’m sure they find Baker completely fungible, and would rather flip a Garcia-type for an Anthony Eyanson or Zach Root any day. Middling relievers are affordable in free agency, and often come via minor league free agency or low-cost spring invites. Top round draft picks are much, much scarcer.
The bird, in this case, is someone else’s Top 10-caliber prospect… not the reliever. Yeah, I think Baker probably could have been traded for someone’s No. 7 or 8 or whatever. We got two of those last season for Estevez… who was on an expiring no less.
I think it’s worth noting that, even six months prior, those two Estevez returns were not well-regarded prospects in the Phillies system. At the beginning of 2024, Aldegheri and Klassen were #23 and #26 respectively on Fangraphs’ rankings.
Four months later, they had some helium when they were traded due to in-season adjustments, but I think we’re beginning to see that they were traded at peak value, and they needed a stronger developmental system – say a Cleveland, Tampa or Seattle – to continue improving. They had helium on the hope that the improvements were durable, not transitory, but sometimes improvements are indeed the latter.
Dropping them onto a decimated Pandas roster (Rocket City just broke a 16-game losing skid), with nowhere to go but the punishing PCL or an MLB team they’re unprepared for, is a tough hand in any case, but that’s why more polished prospects from competitive power conferences have had better fortune in the Angels system – they sink or swim at the MLB level, and generally hopfrog the farm’s extreme park factors and prospect-poor affiliates.
I don’t think that Baker is a Detmers equivalent though. The Angels don’t really have a Baker equivalent in their bullpen, but Baker would be a 7th inning guy, and the third or fourth best reliever on a first division team. The sim currently assigns Detmers 4.5x more value than Baker – and rightfully so, as Detmers is still a starting pitcher in a relief role.
I think last year’s Luis Garcia is more of a Baker equivalent, if Luis Garcia had three years of control.
So the question is, would you trade three years of Garcia straight across for one of Devin Taylor, Alex Lodise, Anthony Eyanson, Quentin Young, or Mason Neville? Because those are the guys that will be hovering around #37, and I think many teams, including the out-of-contention Orioles would say: yes, most definitely.
Yeah. I was trying to not complicate it. Detmers isn’t close to Baker as a reliever but is young and may become a starter so I evened them out in my head as far as “desirable”.
I just think Bryan Bakers are kind of a dime a dozen, and relievers are notoriously volatile. Trading one for a supplemental round pick in deep draft seems like a no-brainer to me, if your team isn’t in contention.
I think Gitch’s point was trading for an established Top 10 prospect is generally better use of the opportunity, if given the option between such a prospect and, say, a No. 37 draft pick.
I just don’t think a Bryan Baker is going to fetch a top ten prospect in most systems.
And I think this is undervaluing the #37 pick in this (and most) drafts. A supplemental round pick actually ends up becoming a top ten prospect in most systems immediately after drafting – probably a top five in the Angels system.
But would we rather have a guy who has remained a top ten prospect with a 50 grade for a couple years from say the Cubs or Young? Especially if the draft pick seems harder to get in trade?
I personally just really like Young…. but in general?
It’s really hard to say in the abstract, or “in general”.
I think you can see in retrospect what trading Estevez and Garcia actually returned for the team less than a year afterward. One volatile reliever that is largely inferior to either Estevez or Garcia, and five other prospect that are badly struggling in the upper minors. In the end, each side got what they paid for.
But when I’m thinking about CBA picks, I’m thinking in terms of discrete targets, like “would I trade Ward for Player X and Mitch Voit”, or “would I trade Jansen for Anthony Eyanson straight across”?
I’m sure Baltimore is doing the same – they probably have their sights on one or two guys they knew they couldn’t obtain without that pick, and they value them more than Baker going forward.
“I just don’t think a Bryan Baker is going to fetch a top ten prospect in most systems”
See, this is the ass end of my vague concern. He DID net the #37 pick. So is it better to try and just get the #7 prospect from a good system like the Brewers for a guy like Jansen? A guy with at least some pro track record who has held his prospect rank?
I’m not even sure it is. But I’m not sure I would give up something I like as much as Detmers to get a #37 pick. If they wanted Fermin, maybe.
I do think that we are too quick to snark that it was “only” Bryan Bakker, which would be why I keep linking to his bref. He’s not all that run of the mill, we don’t have that guy on our roster at all.
We’d need to either luck out and get #37 for a guy like Jansen, who is expensive for this kind of trade, or a guy like Detmers, which I am afraid is an overpay.
We’ve had a lot of guys like Baker in the past, imo. He has value – just not a ton – roughly $5M excess value by the sim – a guy who’s put up about 2 WAR over four years.
The fact that there aren’t Bryan Bakers on the 40-man is a choice, not destiny. The fragility of this year’s bullpen was pretty widely discussed coming into spring – so much was depending on the health of an overpaid Stephenson, and an oft-injured Ben Joyce. Detmers is only plugging a hole due to that choice – I think most competitive teams would have swapped him and Koch at this point, but there aren’t many solutions for the bullpen outside of last year’s retreads (Fullmer, Strickland).
Well yeah. If you have a guy putting up Bakers stats in a given year trade him for a pick if you can. We don’t have that guy. So we won’t be getting that trade done.
Well, the Angels do have that guy in Ward – his value is high enough to fetch a decent prospect *and* a CBA A pick. I’d suggest, for the right team, Jansen would fetch one as well, regardless of what the sim says.
There are some struggling prospects, like Dana and Klassen, that still probably carry enough value for a system that thinks they can fix them. I could see another front office saying, hey, I think Riley Quick has more play in pro ball than Caden Dana, and that motivating a swap.
Do I think any of this will happen? Well, no.
But that’s due less to unavailable assets than front office outlook – where 4% playoff odds look like 40% in any given year to the owner’s half-dollar cartoon saucer eyes on a hypothetical postseason ribeye.
See, now we are saying the same thing. Trade Ward or Jansen. Get a 50 grade kid. Either from a teams system or via a draft pick. Sounds good to me.
But not if I had to give up Detmers.
And we don’t have the middle ground. It has to be either our “trade bait” that we hope someone wants or it has to be a guy we want to keep. Not a fungible guy with value like Baker.
Point being Perry’s not in the same position as the Orioles whether Arte has play off dreams or not. He’s selling different stuff.
Luis Garcia. Bryan Baker. They aren’t the same really. A reliever is still far less valuable than a starter. But as far as what the angels have to offer for a high 30s draft pick, and what the Rays got for theirs, it isn’t Luis Garcia.
But hell yes I’d trade Luis Garcia or Hunter Strickland or what ever bag of bones for a draft pick in a heartbeat.
I was thinking (A rare moment for me) that O’ Hoppe and Silent C could benefit from being sent down to AAA. We have a few bubble starters @ AAA and the redhead proverbial back-up catcher as well. d’Arnaud is the starting catcher for the most part and O’ Hoppe needs to swing his way out of his funk by hitting everyday.
100% on O’Hoppe. With Travis deservedly getting the bulk of the time, would be good to demote for 2-weeks or so. If nothing else, to get him focusing on quality ABs.
I’d understand it. Maybe give Logan the All-Star break off then tell him “hey, we are gonna send you to SLC briefly. Just get your swing warmed up and come back fresh.” Don’t even have a him catch more than a couple games for two weeks. Just hit.
The adell turn around has been great. His fielding doesn’t worry me at all anymore and his bat has been even better. Time to extend the guy for 3 years.
I’d prefer to see if he could play above replacement level for a year before extending him.
I’d rather have adell on a short deal for a homegrown player over an aging free agent. Adell is ascending
Besides, as a former #1 pick of the org, they’ll not let him leave cheaply.
Tidbits:
Rengifo’s batting average is up to .232. If he isn’t moved at the deadline, I suspect that Moore will be sent back down when he’s healthy.
It seems obvious that d’Arnaud will continue to erode Logan’s playing time. Despite the impressive home run production, this season seems like a bit of a disappointment for Logan.
With Trout & Soler (?) heating up and Moncada back in the fold, the lineup is pretty deep.
Laying some Ippei Bucks that Logan has another big hot streak or 2 in him this season. He seems to be handling the pitchers better and his overall defense is becoming consistently decent.
Not sure if this has been posted here yet
O’hoppes been tinkering with his crouch all season and seems to have settle on one.
https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/logan-o-hoppe-changing-catcher-stances.html