Over his 20 starts, Soriano was on pace to be a top 20 pitcher, but he was not yet qualified with only 113 innings. Kikuchi had a ERA+ of 83 with Toronto but 147 with Houston over 10 starts. There’s room to believe in those two as #2 type of starters.
I throw Reid Detmers into the Drury, Rendon, Ward, Sandoval, Canning group of sucking negative energy. Luckily , Ward has turned his career around and the others are gone! Therefore , Detmers is the last of the bunch that need to man up. I’m tired of his woe is me act. Just pitch. If it doesn’t work out this year than part ways.
As far as Aldegheri, I do see him as a Joe Saunders type of ceiling, with a floor of Scott Schoenweis. But he doesn’t really have a role on the starting staff with Tyler Anderson already occupying it.
I honestly would make Anderson the 6th starter/ long reliever but alas I know Barry Enright is his friend and TA is his pet project.
Lastly, Bachman was a terrible draft pick , but it can be turned around if they coverted him into a power 2-inning reliever. Something like a Graterol that throws upper 90-100 out of the pen 3 times a week. There’s a nice 40 million dollar career to be made doing that instead of DFA.
Soriano has great stuff. Whether he can stay healthy and put together a full season as a starter is anyone’s guess. I’m interested in seeing Kochanowicz pitch. He did well last year and has velocity. Aldegheri showed some life last season and some control. He might be fun to see.
Kikuchi and Anderson I expect middling performances. Hendricks is holding a spot for a month or two unless the Halos get lucky. Dana is more 2026 than 2025 IMHO. Detmers I don’t even try to predict. I assume what he’s done the last couple years is again what will be seen this season.
Nice rundown, Jeff.
I have a feeling Hendricks will prove cooked pretty quickly.
Other than that we can probably be pretty confident every name mentioned here will start games at some point this year.
SO LET’S SEE HOW THIS GOES!?! No! Let’s make decisions we don’t have to make right now RIGHT NOW!
This is a good preview. Thanks for putting it together
Fangraphs had an interesting review of how Tyler Anderson succeeds.
From the article
“It’s almost impossible to hit a home run with a launch angle at or above 45 degrees. Really, these swings hardly ever lead to hits of any kind. In 2024, batters put 16,177 balls into play with a launch angle of at least 45 degrees; only 287 of them resulted in hits and only nine were homers. Even if you limit it to pulled balls at high angles, you’re talking nine homers in 3,269 chances. Pulling the ball in the air might be good for batters, but popping it up to the pull side is pretty much worthless.
Anderson is an absolute master at this. From 2020-24, batters pulled the ball in the air 509 times against him, but 20.2% of his pulled aerial contact had a launch angle of at least 45 degrees — that’s one of the highest rates in baseball during that span”
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-doesnt-pitcher-pull-rate-seem-to-matter
No love for Silseth or Suarez? I do think the starting rotation this spring and in the regular season is one of the Angels most interesting stories. I like our depth even if it isn’t a top level rotation.
I probably should have added them but I have them in the bullpen segment coming next week.
Nice read JJ
Thank you.
My primary feeling about the starters is that the staff is the very definition of mediocrity. Absent a significant surprise up and down the starting staff, I do not expect much out of them. With pre-season optimism eyes, I can see how a positive narrative can be created. But with 50+ years of MLB baseball eyes, I think there is a very VERY small window of opportunity where these guys could be good. Over 162 games, small windows typically shut. Sorry for the realism and I will hope to be proven wrong.
There’s likely a whole lot of meh on the staff. But it think there’s enough passable depth that when an injury happens Silent C or Aldegheri can handle a few starts without getting blown up.
My prediction is that Anderson regresses and is traded for a low return, giving Dana half a season to adjust to MLB.
You are right on the button. There is some “chance” the staff winds up decent assuming a ton of “ifs” come up in the Angels favor. The chances of that are slim. And there are countervailing chances it could be a disaster based on other factors. Hendricks could be lousy — like Blanton was years ago. Detmers could have another off year. Other issues could occur. We will see.
This is true. But if Soriano holds his stats, Kikuchi is average and ANY of those kids puts in 100+ innings of above average performance we have the beginning of a cheap starting pitching staff…. which would be great. If two youngsters figure it out we are a in really good shape.
We have a big pile of fairly young meh. A lot of it will stay meh. Hendricks and Anderson are afterthoughts to me. But we have about four or five guys who may or may not be important. If two work the season is a win in this regard.
Yes – there is a chance the young pitchers will over perform expectations. And there is a chance Kikuchi will be average. And that Soriano will get better.
There is also the opposite chance on all accounts. Or, more likely, some combination of it all with some pitchers having successful seasons and others regressing while others show future promise and still others future doubt.
It’s all tbd which makes it interesting. It’s a transition year.
One thing I sincerely doubt is that either Anderson or Kikuchi will be good. That’s okay though, I’m really more interested in the kids anyway.
To me this adds more intrigue to the season. The barrier to the MLB rotation isn’t that large.
If we’re going to have a bright future at least one or two of Dana, Silent C, Aldegheri, or Silseth should be able to push Hendricks and Anderson aside and TAKE a place in the rotation.
We won’t see it in Spring Training but hopefully we see the beginning of the next wave.
My knowledge of teaching was not pitching, but I think Silseth has an above chance of seeing success, anticipation of our starters is in being in a place of enjoyment until it’s not.
I agree, the hope is for the future. This year though is likely a bust. There is certainly potential for youthful surprises but by and large this year is just a placeholder for development, A transition year as 71 states. On paper, our starting pitching doesn’t even look as good as last year which was near the bottom of the league.
Spring Training 2025: Starting Pitching Storylines
Welcome to the 2025 season! Pitchers and catchers reporting to camp is a magical day for baseball fans and deserves to be celebrated. It also signals a change in storylines from off season acquisitions to how the team is shaping up.
Over the years pitching, particularly starting pitching, has been the Achilles heel of the franchise. Last season the Angels ranked 26th in MLB in ERA and WHIP, 28th in homers allowed, and 29th in strikeouts. The team hopes to improve on those rankings in 2025 and that success will depend on a mix of veterans and newcomers.
As camp drills lead to Cactus League play, here’s how I’m watching the starting pitchers.
Is Jose Soriano a stud?
Jose Soriano has great stuff and his move to the Angels rotation exceeded even the loftiest of expectations. The Angels intelligently shut him down after 113 innings in a lost season. He enters camp with a rotation spot secured and expectations of success. Can he repeat, or preferably exceed, last year’s solid production?
Which Kikuchi do we get?
The graphic below says pretty much all that needs to be said. Kikuchi is being paid somewhere between the middle of the rotation arm he’s been most of his career and the absolute ace he was for a few months last season. If he really unlocked some magic in Houston that he can carry over, the Angels have an ace. If he regresses back to normal, the Angels have a pitcher with a career ERA+ 9% worse than league average.
As far as upside to turn this staff around, those two posses the most. But Kikuchi is not the only regression candidate.
Do we get odd year Tyler Anderson?
In 2024 Tyler Anderson was 10% better than league average. In 2022 he was absolutely dominant and 57% better than league average. Even in the pandemic season of 2020 he was right at league average (98 ERA+). If we take a look at his ERA+ numbers in odd years we get a much bleaker picture: 93 in 2019, 86 in 2021, 82 in 2023. So, basically Tyler is a good 10-15% worse than league average in odd years and at age 35 is more likely to get worse than improve. But as the middle man in the rotation, his performance will have a large impact on the staff’s numbers.
Does Kyle Hendricks have anything left?
Another 35 year old hurler in the rotation, Kyle Hendricks had horrible numbers for the Cubs last year. Across 130.2 innings he surrendered 21 homers and posted an ugly 5.92 ERA. His ERA+ of 67 was atrocious. But he also might have had some bad luck. Take a look here:
He was among the best in the league at limiting hard contact and he was well above average in keeping the ball on the ground. It seems like the few mistakes he did make left the yard, likely due to his bottom tier fastball velocity. He only threw the fastball 12.7% of the time and it did get smashed but his usually great sinker saw an uptick in hard contact as well. We’ll know early in the season if he’s cooked or can eat some innings.
Who snags the 5th spot?
The Angels have a pile of young pitchers who will compete to break camp with the club and establish a pecking order for future promotions. The future starters and relievers are the most exciting part of this year’s camp. For now let’s look at the starters.
Reid Detmers has the draft pedigree and stuff to be a really, really good MLB pitcher. He also has lapses where he looks like he doesn’t belong on an MLB mound. He gets guys to chase, swing, and strike out. Somehow his curveball, which was his money pitch coming out of college, got hammered to the tune of a .370 batting average and .804 slugging percentage. The expected average and slugging on the curve was well below the actual results, so perhaps Detmers is due for some rebound this season. He definitely has the inside track on a rotation spot.
Jack Kochanowicz had a nice MLB debut last year and I wrote about him in depth this off season. He’s kind of the opposite in Detmers in that he can’t miss a bat but kept hard contact to an absolute minimum. Known as Silent C, Jack had decent strikeout numbers in college and with an improved pitch mix could be a very nice addition to the 2025 rotation.
The men with the upside!
Here’s where camp really gets intriguing. The Angels have a near MLB ready starter with an OC beach boy look and some nasty stuff. They also traded for another starter who might be just as good or better.
Caden Dana first caught eyes in Tempe last year. Between his blonde locks and exploding fastball, Angel fans started dreaming of a surfer looking dude mowing down big league hitters. Dana excelled in the minors last year then got roughed up a bit at the big league level. It happens. Actually, it is supposed to happen. Injuries to the guys above him will happen and Hendricks could be easily jettisoned if Dana forces the isssue. Will he?
The crown of last season’s trade acquisitions, George Klassen is a bit further away from The Show than Dana but look at this promise. Klassen is in big league camp so the top brass can get an up close look at him. If things go as planned he’ll be in camp next year competing for a spot. So enjoy the looks you do get and track him in AA this season.
Minor league depth?
Yes, the Angels should have some guys headed to AAA with some promise. Or at least the ability to fill in for injuries and not get hammered by opposing hitters.
Sam Aldegheri came over at last year’s trade deadline from Philadelphia. He posted a really nice 12.6 K/9 at the AA level before coming to Anaheim and getting a cup of coffee at the big league level. He gets K’s, doesn’t give up many home runs, and looks like he could be a 4 or 5 in a rotation as early as this season.
Sam Bachman should be in camp as a starter. The organization worked him as a starter at the AAA level last season. The fact I’m mentioning the Angels first round pick of 2021 after so many other names is evidence of just how poorly his career has gone the last couple of seasons. But, I saw him pitch in Sacramento last season and he does still have potential. This is likely his last shot at starting before being moved to the bullpen. So, let’s see how that goes.
Over the next week or so we’ll look at bullpen and position player storylines. As the pitchers are the stars of the show this week, we’ll stick to them.
Which starters are you particularly tuned into this season? And who do you think will surprise the baseball world either for good or for bad?