As the August 2nd trade deadline draws near, fans from across the interwebz are coming up with trade ideas. I obviously like perusing the trade values simulator so I figured I’d share some ideas that aren’t mine but that I do like. Call it a food for thought exercise.
There are a ton of proposals linking the Angels and Cardinals, which makes sense as the Cards have tons of MLB ready talent and an ensuing 40 man roster crunch and playoff aspirations.
The Angels ship out a few months of Thor but receive a much needed infielder in Brendan Donovan. The left handed hitter has six years of club control and is an on base machine. DeJong is toast at the plate but carries a solid glove and is there because his $9.1 million salary next year makes swap cash neutral. DeJong becomes expensive bench depth but that’s more than offset by our starting second baseman making minimum wage.
This one is far more aggressive but it nets the Angels multiple MLB ready pieces and provides significant salary relief. Liberatore is only 22 and should develop into a middle of the order arm. Gorman, also 22, is an absolute stud who can play second or third. Burleson is a decent bat who can play a corner outfield spot or first base and Yepez is similar to Burleson but with a lower OBP and more pop.
A slight variation on this trade that I also like:
Jordan Walker is a beast. I’d take him over the salary relief of Iggy and the extra prospect. He’s a third base only guy and two years away from MLB, though. This trade would signal a true rebuild.
Just because it won’t happen doesn’t mean I can’t like it. Mid rotation arm in Gore, stud second baseman in Cronenworth, needed catching help with Campusano, and whatever we get from Snell is a bonus.
See above about not happening. This nets us a new infield basically. Torres has put up 3 WAR already this season, Volpe is the hottest prospect in the MFY system. Cortes is a mid rotation type arm, Dominguez is a 19 year old center field prospect and Matt Carpenter is a great rotational piece who is a free agent in a few months and really serves no purpose here. Yanks should just keep him.
Spencer Steer is a near MLB ready infielder who can play all over the dirt and sports hefty OBP in the minors. He’s also a Long Beach State alum, which makes the board happy. Wallner can play all three outfield positions and sports an impressive .272/.383/.513 line across 3 minor league seasons. I’ve already speculated about snagging Woods Richardson, who is quality when healthy. This right here is acting like a big market club and buying some talent. I’m all over this.
Sometimes you have to take a chance. Biggio was a highly rated prospect, he’s 27 so he’s in his prime, and his down year in 2023 still has him sporting a 108 OPS+. At worst, he’s a substantial bench upgrade and depth over what we have. I’d make this trade in a heartbeat.
This would be selling high on Ward and likely buying low on Abrams. However, I think a corner outfielder is easier to acquire than a starting shortstop. I think Abrams is a starting shortstop. He’s yet to prove it at the MLB level, but he’s only 22 and is just getting his first taste. We could give him the consistent playing time he needs this year and pencil him in for the next 5 years.
Vasquez is in AA and is putting up solid numbers thanks to his 60 grade curveball. His fastball is mediocre but works better than it should thanks to hitters needing to be aware of the hammer. He needs to develop control to stick in the rotation, but if he does he’s a mid to back end pitcher.
Another simple swap. Thor for a sweet swinging shortstop who likely moves to second or third as he fills in. Doncon provides some much needed position player upside to the system.
Angels shed Iggy’s $16 million per year for the next three years and add a nice back end of the rotation arm while doing so. I’d be all for this. Thor returns home and heads to the post season, making for a great story line. I’d be shocked if NY would do this, but if they would I’d jump.
I’ll keep looking around and posting some ideas. Do you particularly like any of these? Do you hate any? Think I should put the sim down a bit, ha ha?
Let me know below.
Biggio can’t hit. We have Fletcher. Why so many second baseman? We need a SS.
*WHO CAN HIT.
With the Braves now needing an outfielder, Ward makes a lot of sense with them. Is Swanson available and/or worth it?
He is definitely not available, nor a realistic return for Ward. He would be a good FA target, however.
He’s available as they have a stud SS coming up and in a possible walk year.
They are playoff team this year most likely. They aren’t going to damage their chances trading the established player with a 4.0 WAR for an up and comer. If he’s available like you claim, cite your sources.
Trea Turner
Not going to happen unless Arte goes above the luxury tax.
I don’t like any of those Ohtani trades.
Go for Biggio, buy low. Simple trade will help.
I think Biggio makes sense. Also remember we get Fletch back soon too
Thursday
Thanks for all the ideas. I like the Biggio trade idea with Toronto. I also like the Ward for Abrams idea. Can they throw in JJ Abrams and have him re-vamp the Angels broadcasts. Maybe have a monster eat Matty V mid-broadcast?
Or, somehow show that the 2022 season was in an alternate universe and there’s another universe where all these things didn’t happen, or something.
I like a lot of these too.
Given the state of the team and Ohtani’s sky high value right now, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world to just take a massive swing like moving Ohtani, Ward, Thor and Iggy.
Padres do seem like a good fit for deals.
I don’t get these simulators. Everyone is posting them. But, there are other factors to consider. For example, if someone gets Ohtani and he is valued as per existing contract – this doesn’t account for the increased likelihood that the receiving team may be able to extend him after signing, right? If someone had a year to re-sign him and were a contender, he’s have a lot more value than his current contract alone.
Here’s how they calculate value at this site. It isn’t too different from most places.
Let’s say 1 WAR is $9 million. If Ohtani produces 7 WAR, that’s $63 million in value for his $5 million salary this year. That’s a $58 million value. Add in a second year of similar production at double the salary (he’s arb eligible) and that’s a $50 million value. So all in all that’s $105 million in value. Hence Ohtani’s value at 107.
There’s nothing more really added in.
Conversely, Rendon is being paid to produce 4 WAR and he’s put up less than 1. So he’s a negative $29 million in value. Add in further age related decline and the last four years of his contract, and his negative value is about $135 million.
Plenty of factors aren’t considered. But overall, this is the best sim site I’ve found.
Last year the Dodgers were 106-56 and produced 65+WAR ( according to baseball reference) So any total team payroll expense below $585 million was a bargain?
Got it.
I’m all for giving Ohtani an opportunity to play for a playoff contending team. Arte obviously doesn’t consider this team one.
Are we going to do year 3 of “Trout and Rendon will be healthy next season and the roster will be in better shape and hopefully Arte raises payroll”.
Let’s be real, Arte doesn’t intend to build a wining team, he may overpay for another free agent and give the fans some red meat like usual, but that’s it.
Tbh, I think Gritch is right, maybe if we rename the team to the Riverside Meth Savages, maybe they will play better. You only love once.
Don’t trade Babe Ruth. We’ll regret it forever.
Dude He’s dead so is his roommate, no 50.
Personally, I like the Thor to the Cardinals deals. Don’t want to trade Ohtani under any circumstance before at least exploring an extension. That said if we had to move him, I like the Yankees package the most.
Think we get absolutely fleeced in every proposal involving Ohtani and the Cards. I don’t want to hear about “total value” of prospects that haven’t even played yet. The person who made the Iglesias, Thor, and Ohtani to the Cards package should be embarrassed. A struggling, but proven closer locked up long term, rental but quality SP, and an MVP candidate for 4 players/prospects? How about…no.
I’d also argue that if the Angels retain a majority of the money on Iglesias’s contract, he becomes a positive asset and to include him just to dump is the definition of short-sided and a goldfish mindset. But then again, this is the Angels so I wouldn’t be surprised. Fun article, fine with most of these that don’t involve Shohei.
I love most of all these, but this seems like a case of Syndergaard being over valued by us. I’d trade him for any of those proposals but I just don’t see it.
That trade for Biggio is inspired!
I really like it.
Wrong MLB offspring from the Blue Jays
I really like that Ward for Abrams trade!
Indeed. Selling high and buying low is what we need to do to.
Thats more like it Jeff. Great Ideas!
Sure, you like it when none of them are mine, ha ha.
it’d be nice if Thor pulls a Chapman, going to Team X and then re-signing with us for next year. At a lower rate which would be appropriate for his numbers. He loves being an Angel. If we trade him for Donovan and then end up with both I’d be happy.
I do like and appreciate your analysis Jeff but I am becoming more convinced that the trade algorithm is very flawed so that any analysis based on it is also, unfortunately, flawed.
The Trade Algorithm doesn’t adjust for TrAdition?
It is a fun tool and really the only way to play with trades and have some sort of objective measurement.
They’ve refined their rating system over the last year, but nothing is perfect.
I will say that when real trades go down they post the actual trade along with their player values and more often than not are really close, often right on the money.
For this piece the fun part to me was seeing what other fans, especially of other franchises, are wanting from the Angels.
Iglesias -10.7!! Yikes
$16 million per year for the next three years. Even if he’s an elite closer (which is to be debated) that’s a ton of coin. More than most small market teams can cover.
What a mess. I remember back when everyone was clamoring that we need to keep Iggy, that we really need a solid bullpen and not blow games. So Perry signed the guy, and now he’s -10.7.
A team that is actually in contention benefits from a solid closer. And the Angels thought they’d be in contention for a playoff spot this year.
The Tepera and Loup signings didn’t work. I’d still make them 10 times out of 10. Iggy was the most expensive but he was also first.
I would expect all three to pitch better if they were elsewhere. Seriously. Some pitching coach would make one simple suggestion and they’d be cured.
Yah I don’t blame Perry for this year.The beggining of this year we were top 5 in all of baseball. Shit just hit the fan and trAdidtion showed up. I believe Perry can build a winner, but to make it into postseason, a lot has to go right.
Love these articles Jeff! Realistic and a fun read