This fan post is written by one of our site members. Let them know what you think and feel in the comments below!
The Angels have stunk it up in 2020. They just dropped 3 of 4 to The San Francisco Giants, and it was not a competitive series in the slightest. Tommy La Stella walked it off Monday night, getting fans excited that perhaps the turnaround was coming! We were heading into Dylan Bun-day with momentum! And then he suffered his first setback start. He couldn’t find the zone; Bemboom called for a LOT of fastballs which, if you don’t know by now, is Bundy’s worst pitch. And then, Pablo Sandoval put all 800 pounds into an eye-level 0-2 pitch and got it out of the park. What seemed to be a turnaround quickly became the lowest point of the season since Texas busted out the brooms in Arlington.
Now at 8-18, you gotta ask yourself, “What do we do from here?” Technically, we are still in the hunt for one of the expanded playoff spots, as we are only 5.5 games out. We could hope mentor and future Cardinals Hall of Famer Albert Pujols calls a team Zoom meeting and rallies the troops for a historic run in a wacky season. Or, we could be realistic. The Angels are done for the year and need to start planning for the 2021 offseason.
Admittedly, I’m not an MLB exec or GM. I’m just a dude who enjoys speculation and dreaming of my team being good one day. Billy Eppler will probably be out the door soon anyways. So, my fellow fans, hear me out as I play GM. And if you like what I have to say, maybe I can get the job!
Spending Cash
I did my best to figure out where exactly the Angels fall in terms of spending cash in 2021. Fangraphs has us somewhere around $10 million to spend, which seems low but possible. Since Pujols and Justin Upton have back loaded contracts, Pujols will be making $30 million and Upton will be making $23 million. I mean, not ideal to be paying $53 million to two extreme underachievers, but we’ll live. However, Spotrac.com gives us a more hopeful look.
Outside of Trout, Rendon, Pujols, and Upton, The Angels have no contracts on the books. Every other rostered player is either in Arbitration or Pre-Arbitration. Spotrac estimates the Angels to have $76,258,333 in Tax Space. Tax Space is just our cap until we hit the $210,000,000 2021 Competitive Balance Tax Threshold. Arte Moreno typically keeps the team payroll near or under $180,000,000, so $46,258,333 is probably what we have to work with. I’m going to use that number as opposed to the $14 dollars and a used handkerchief that Fangraphs projects us to have.
Free Agency
Bear with me here, I’m going to get a little wild. First piece of business, Angels who become free agents in 2021. Andrelton Simmons, Tommy La Stella, Jason Castro, Hansel Robles and Julio Teheran (LOL) are all at the end of their deals. Of this group, Tommy La Stella is the only one I would approach to re-sign. Andrelton Simmons is a generational defender, however his declining offensive production mixed with his clear inability to run the bases without hurting himself make me hesitant to offer him a deal. Also, the looming 2022 Shortstop free agents, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Corey Seager and Javi Baez make me want to find a 1 year deal in 2021 to get us to that market. Do I know those players will hit free agency? No. But that’s a risk I’m willing to take!
Tommy boy’s contract in 2021 was $3,250,000 and I’m willing to give him a a 3 year, $15,000,000 deal at 31 years old. Because it’s MY fantasy world, he accepts. Moving on to free agency, we have spent $5 million of our 46, so $41,000,000 to work with.
Signings
Trevor May, RHRP, 3 years $12,000,000. One of Minnesota’s better relievers over his career, Trevor May features a high 90s fastball mixed with a mid 80s slider and high 80s changeup. In 2018, he pitched 25 innings to a 3.20 ERA (2.17 SIERA, 2.46 xFIP). In 2019, he pitched 64.1 innings with a 2.94 ERA (3.68 SIERA, 4.15 xFIP). May would be a great addition to a…”struggling” bullpen.
Trevor Rosenthal, RHRP, 2 years $8,500,000. One of the best relievers in baseball in the early part of the 2010s, Rosenthal’s career took a massive downturn in 2018 when he required Tommy John Surgery. his following 2019 was a disaster, as he walked 15.26 batters per 9 innings with a 13.50 ERA in 15.1 innings pitched. Whatever is in the fountain water in Kansas City seems to have cured him, as in 10.1 innings so far this season he has a 3.48 BB/9 and a 0.87 ERA. His fastball velo is back up to career norms at 98 mph, and he features a change and slider/cutter that induces a lot of whiffs.
Liam Hendriks, RHRP, 3 years $45,000,000. you probably recognize this name, as he’s been shutting the door on the Angels for the past few years. Liam Hendriks is one of the premier closing arms in baseball, and I may be low-balling at 3/45. His arsenal is mostly a mid 90s fastball and mid 80s slider, but it was enough to generate a 13.13 K/9 in 2019.
Freddy Galvis, SS, 1 year $6,000,000. Not much flash here, but as i mentioned earlier, I just need a guy to fill a spot while we wait for the 2022 SS class. He’s not the best, but he’ll do a job for a year.
Austin Romine, C, 1 year $5,000,000. This isn’t the exciting Realmuto splash most of us would like, but I’m saving money for a superstar shortstop. Romine is a defense first catcher, who will pair well with Max Stassi.
End of Spending
With that, I am done. We still have $12 million to spend, but I’ll leave that in reserve for future acquisitions. I know I didn’t address starting pitching holes, but I’d prefer to trade for controllable arms. Mike Clevinger, Zack Plesac, Matthew Boyd, and Danny Duffy are all guys i would call to check in about at the 2020 deadline. In the future I might do a 2.0 with my thoughts on trading for more relief and starters, but this was a long read. I appreciate if you made it this far and would love to hear your thoughts! Go Angels!
As usual I’m going against the herd here…..
Been doing it since June 2017 back at the old place and I’m way ahead!!! The way to go is to build a great infield core from within ( farm system like gee….the two Titans in our own division Houston and Oakland and have a Alex Bregman or Matt Chapman at 3B a Carlos Correa or Marcus Semien at SS, Jose Altuve at 2B, and George Springer or Ramon Laureano in CF and if Oakland can do it then we should f*cking be able to do the same!!
Interesting approach! I don’t love spending big on relievers but I can get the appeal after seeing Eppler go cheap on them for a half-decade. I think the shortstop discussion is fascinating. I know Simmons has been an enigma since 2019 but I do think there’s value in a guy who will have a high floor and a non-zero at the plate. I wonder if you’re able to get him on a cheaper multi-year deal rather than splurging for one of the big shortstops.
Don’t think the financial estimates you have provided are accurate.
Use Cot’s contracts, which is way more accurate than Sportrac. Here’s a link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VGOfP7l110-tNq5CX0Gp3NCnDqj1MwOQOfanxNZGBdI/edit#gid=1520401900
As per the above, we sit at $133.5 mil when you factor in benefits, minor leaguers, etc. This figure, however, does not include arbitration, which is a biggie.
If you factor in arbitration, doing rough estimates, you probably have to add about 42-46mil to our projected expenses.
Even if I take the lower end, that puts as, at the minimum, at 175mil, which makes Fangraphs’ projection of how much we have to spend as fairly accurate.
If Arte decides to be generous and aims for around, say, 195-200mil, that means, at the absolute most, we have 20-25mil to spend, and I sorta think that’s unlikely, in the face of COVID, etc.
In all likelihood, we will probably have something around 10-15mil to spend, and given all our holes, it’s just not possible to fix it all. IMO, I think we are best doing a “mini-rebuild,” trading anyone we can who will be a free agent by the end of 2021 for pitching prospects. Don’t sign anyone of note, clear some payroll space, then gear up for a 2022 run once we have Pujols’ contract off the books, and hopefully, have drafted and developed some pitching of note.
Unfortunately I don’t think teams can trade prospects this year, at least not low level. Something about only players on the 60 man roster are eligible. Kick us while we’re down…
The FA route again?
and then were right back in quicksand two years later 😣
Interesting approach Dylan. I’m not a fan of spending big on multiple RPs though I agree that pitching is an area of need. And while I quite like LaStella I don’t see a reason to resign him. In fact I think he’s our most logical trade chip right now. I think an off-season focused on a talented SP (Bauer?) and reasonably priced defender at SS would be my approach. I’d love for that SS to be Simba but if he’s significantly more expensive than Galvis or Inglesias we need to move on.
One question I’d like to ask this community, Is it too soon to panic about Jo Adell? No aspect of his game has impressed in the slightest and, while it seems knee-jerk, I’m wondering if we should sell while we can. We have a glut of OFs and really need some impact arms. It’s becoming common to suggest Plesac and Clev but If we could get 5 years of Zach for 6 of Jo I think we need to consider a package.
I personally believe it’s an overreaction to Adell, but I’m also fine with moving him if it means we get good arms in return. Adell clearly needs more time at AAA to find his bearings defensively and offensively, but the season is already over. Might as well let him try and figure it out in the pros
If you had to grade his 5 tools this season (I know it’s a small sample) none are playing. Hit is not good, Power is non existent, Fielding is rough, Arm is a non factor. I suppose with 3 infield singles his speed has shown. Still, I don’t see a talented defender nor a batter who’s approach is a threat. Maybe we should focus our attention on Marsh and Adams
I think it’s way too early to tell and it’s a good thing, since the team’s not going to win, that Joe is playing him. It’s still a small sample size and I’ll use Rendon as an example of what happens with small samples. Granted, Rendon has shown he’s a topnotch ballplayer before but it was only about a week ago that some of us were wondering if he was another high-priced dud in the Angel trAdition.
I’m not saying Adell is another Rendon but I *am* saying we’ve got another 30+ games to see what Adell really is.
Thanks for the reply guys. I have a bit of an agenda behind trading Jo (or another OF) and putting more stock in arms. My ideal future has Trout/Marsh/Ohtani from LF to RF with Sho being an everyday player and maybe an occasional RP. We badly need qualify SPs and Jo is our biggest trade chip who happens to play a position of depth.