We are about 2 months away from the MLB draft, being held in Atlanta as part of All-Star weekend. Part of me wishes that the draft was much sooner, as to give some draftees the ability to play some lower level affiliate ball, but having it all star weekend makes a ton of sense and gives teams more time to evaluate players.
This will not be a mock draft, moreso a “menu” of sorts as to players I like in the first few rounds. I’ll also include some “money saver” options that we have seen over the years. I’ll create another look about a month out from the draft, as conference championships and NCAA tournament unwind and players rise and fall.
Also a fun exercise for those that do like mocks: Overslot Baseball has a fun draft simulator to play around with. I don’t think some of the values of guys is completely accurate, but it does show you some options of guys that could potentially fall in the 2-4 round and be had with large bonuses if money is saved.
Pick 12
Players I like:
- Sawyer Stronsider: First off, I just like this dude’s name. Secondly, his performance has him consistently ranked in the top 15. He’s a good defender, has power to all fields, and a good athlete. He has some swing and miss (will be a consistent theme) but is arguably the best player in the 2nd best league in college baseball.
- AJ Gracia: Gracia burst onto the scene as a freshman at Duke. He moved to Virginia this season following his college coach, and he has been a mainstay in the lineup. Gracia is a blend of patience and polish. He doesn’t strike out a ton, but also doesn’t just try to hit for power. His swing reminds me a lot of Michael Brantley, calm and collected to start then generating great bat speed. He plays some CF, but would be a really strong corner outfielder with good athleticism and strong arm.
- Justin Lebron: He is falling down rankings fast. He has struggled in SEC play, mostly due to his chase rate. But the guy does not whiff fastballs, which is encouraging. I think he’s way too talented to struggle like this, and with some mindset/swing adjustments (and not having to be THE MAN of his team) he could really take off. His swing reminds me a lot of Justin Upton.
Money saving options:
- Derek Curiel: To me, Curiel is a Steven Kwan clone. He rarely strikes out, takes his walks, and is very hitterish. He’s not going to hit for a ton of power, and he might be regulated to LF as a pro, but overall I like his game. I don’t like him at full slot value, hence why he’s on this list. Doesn’t hurt that he’s a local kid, either.
- Caden Sorrell: I’m not sure he will really be a money saver when all is said and done. I’ve seen him all over the board, but the combination of power and athleticism is intriguing. His teammate Jace Laviolette went in the 20s last year (after a down year and an injury), and Caden is having a really strong year in the SEC. He is a bit streaky, and he does have some swing and miss to his game, but the guy can hit, and he’s a legit CF at the next level. His stock could rise quickly after the SEC and NCAA tournament with a strong performance.
- Aiden Robbins: another guy that has been shooting up boards, Robbins transferred to Texas from Seton Hall. He has tripled his HR total from last year, and is the leader of one of the best teams in the country. His strikeout totals have risen as his power output has increased, but his Seton hall days suggest having a good eye. This is most likely a Texas swing and attitude adjustment in the box, something where hopefully he can find a happy medium.
Pick 45
Players I like:
- Chase Brunson- How about double dipping on TCU outfielders? Brunson mashes fastballs. He’s a good athlete that looks to do damage, and is rising fast.
- Andrew Williamson: I’ll be honest, I don’t LOVE the twitch in his swing, but you can’t deny it works for him. I’ll be interested to see how he adjusts to higher and more consistent velocity at the next level, but he has put UCF baseball on the map
- Gavin Grahovac: I went back and forth on this one (mostly because my buddy coached him at VP and his dad made his life miserable). After a shoulder injury ended his season, he has come back and been hitting the cover off the ball. He is a really nice blend of power and hitability, has good speed and is overall just a gamer. The only thing really in question is what position he plays. He’s playing 3rd right now, and is athletic enough to do so, but he also saw a lot of time in LF as a freshman.
- Jarren Advincula– one of the best hitters on one of the best teams in the country. He probably benefits from hitting in front of Lackey a bit, but as I’m writing this, he is hitting .422. He doesn’t hit for a ton of power, but he has decent pop that he can develop into if he lifts the ball a bit more.
If they fall:
- Tyler Spangler- honestly, if he wasn’t hurt, he might be in the top 10. I think this kid is a Corey Seager carbon copy. I love the swing.
- Landon Thome– probably won’t be there, but if we go under on #12 and he’s there, would be an option
- Logan Schmidt/Joseph Contreras/Carson Boleman– Boleman is my favorite, and Contreras showed he could handle the big stage in the WBC. Can’t envision any of them being here, but maybe strong commitments to their colleges might push them down.
Pick 81
Players I like:
- Jake Brown– if it weren’t for a wrist fracture, Brown would likely be a sleeper round 1 pick, and at bare minimum a 2nd rounder. The best hitter (over Curiel too) at LSU, he has a good blend of power and hitability. Corner outfielder, as he isn’t the best athlete in the world, but the bat will play.
- Shane Sdao– he’s been up and down a bit this year, but he is rounding into form. If he leads Texas A&M to a deep run, he won’t be here.
If they fall:
- Hunter Dietz– Arkansas ace, has rebounded from injury/sporadic performance and is starting to jump up boards. The talent is there.
- Carson Tinney– can never have enough catchers, right? Really good backstop, with some hitability.
Pick 109
Players I like:
- Myles Bailey– the dude just mashes baseballs. I like a dude that’s just there to hit. He suffered a terrible injury sliding into 2nd (very similar to Cole Fontenelle), or his stock might be more in the 2-3 range. Just let the dude DH and play some first and become a masher
- Henry Ford– it looked like early on in his Freshman season at Virginia he could be on track to be a top 5 pick. That hasn’t worked out due to inconsistencies and a lack of position, but he’s had a nice year transferring to Tennessee. Power is there, but he’s a bit too aggressive at the plate.
- Cal Randall– our yearly bullpen arm here. Dude throws upper 90s with some nasty offspeed pitches. Walks are the biggest concern, but if he can find the zone, the dude is gross.
Photo credit: Rex Fregosi
