Momentum is something that confuses baseball nerds. It is not really quantifiable, or measurable, or predictable in any meaningful way. Sure, there are clutch stats and predictors for situations based off of previous experience, but it is not the same as a momentum shift that changes the game beyond what is statistically likely.
That happened to Soriano today. He had an easy 3 innings, not allowing a baserunner. But then in the 4th, Moore bobbled a ground ball and then suddenly Murphy’s law came into play. Everything went wrong. A 2 run home run, seeing eye singles, bloops, bad throws, and it was 7-0 Rays by the time he was finally able to get 3 outs.
So while Soriano did go 4 innings, giving up 7 runs on 7 hits, striking out 4 and walking 1, he would have likely had a much better day without that bobble to start the 4th. It isn’t Moore’s fault, it was a slow play and he had to rush to have a chance, but he is kicking himself 2nd most today after Soriano.
And this is why sports are not played on paper, and why expected stats are dumb. Most of those hits had a low expected batting average. Low exit velocity, not ideal bat angle. What they were though were perfectly placed, just out of reach or just hard enough to get through.
“High”lighted Recap
No one had a hit until the 4th, when things unraveled fast and Soriano allowed 7 runs. That’s bad.
But, the Angels didn’t get shut out, as Jo Adell hit his 23rd home run of the year in the 5th.
Momentum was starting to swing the Angels’ way, as Logan walked and Moore hit a double with 2 outs and WHY DID YOU SEND HIM!?
And what do you know, the Angels do not manage to get any more runs because even after another hit, a double play ends their chances. Momentum is a thing, and nerds cannot quantify it.
The Rays really tried to let the Angels back in the game though, as a Jo Adell bloop double plated the 3rd run for the Halos.
But it was too little, too late, and the Angels lose.
Upcoming
Another Rays game tomorrow, no game Thursday though. Weekend is at Detroit.
