NCAA Top Prospects week #8

For the teams I’ve been covering, something that probably shouldn’t have happened, did. Texas A&M won the weekend series against Tennessee. Tennessee won Friday, but after that, A&M went after them and got back-to-back dubs to win the series 2-1.

Texas A&M had some help from Jace LaViolette, who has been heating up as of late. His weekend stats aren’t as good as last week, but he is still doing better than he was in the first few weeks, which is a great sign. His weekend stats: Friday: 0-2, BB, K, Saturday: 1-4 2RBIs, 2K, Sunday: 2-5 BB 3K. Seeing Jace put together multi-hit games is a great sight to see, and his play should increase as the weeks go on. The only thing a little concerning with his stats this week was that his strikeout numbers are back up a bit. Although that’s just what he does, he’ll give you a solid number of longballs and a pretty good average, but the strikeout numbers will be high.

Transitioning to our first of 3 pitchers in the piece is Jamie Arnold. Jamie posted a very impressive outing, except for it being cut short due to his 98 pitches. He has been having a great season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being the first pitcher off the board when it’s all said and done. Here’s his weekend stats: 5IP, 2 hits, 0R, 2BB, and 10Ks. Jamie has been nothing but dominant this season, and his strikeout numbers continue to go up. The swing and miss he can produce is legit. I would like to see him work deep into games like we saw the first couple of weeks, and if that means fewer Ks’s it’s fine with me as long as he’s getting outs.

Moving on to our second pitcher, Liam Doyle. He also had a quality start this week and is fighting for his case to be the first arm off the board. Liam has been quite dominant this year, blowing fastballs right by hitters. With command of a secondary pitch and even a third, he could become unhittable. For not covering him early in the year, to now seeing how talented he is, shows how much talent there is around the country. His stat line for the weekend: 6IP, no hits, no runs, 2 BB, and 8K’s. I’ve said this before, and I’m going to say it again: no matter what happens, Liam Doyle will find a way to strike out hitters.

That isn’t a highlight, I just thought it would be fun to include. Considering I don’t think I’ve ever seen a metal bat get obliterated like this before.

Now, for the last arm I will be covering is one we are all familiar with, and I’m almost certain all of you knew he would be included. Tyler Bremner. He came out against UC Davis and put on a masterclass performance. His final stat line, 7IP, 4 hits, 1R, 0BB, and 10K’s. He looked very dominant this outing, and I’m looking forward to seeing him dominate on the bump.

Stay tuned for weekly updates on the best players in college!

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Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
18 days ago

In a weekend when top-ranked national teams are going head to head and the competition is fierce, both Jamie Arnold and Liam Doyle had their best outings of the season last night and today.

Arnold took on #25 Virginia Tech (in a rain-delayed Saturday game) and went 7 innings, with 9 Ks, surrendering only 1 ER, 4 hits, two walks.

Doyle did him one better, lasting 8.1 innings against a formidable Ole Miss club (#6 ranked), surrendering 2 ERs, but delivering a masterful 14 Ks, against three hits and two walks.

Both Florida State and Tennessee are chock-full of draft targets. The former has Arnold and Joey Volini (who also cooked in his start this weekend), plus Alex Lodise and Max Williams. Not that this ever happens, but the Angels could do worse than just scooping up all four with their first four selections.

Meanwhile Tennessee has Doyle, plus Andrew Fischer and Gavin Kilen – all having themselves quite the seasons.

TapatioMan
Trusted Member
18 days ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

I was just about to post about Doyle. He looks really good. I know he mostly throws fastballs (~70% of the time). I saw questions about his secondary stuff. I was surprised about that because I saw him throw some nasty sliders. He did hang a slider, which was punished for a HR in his latest outing. His velo mostly held as he reached the 100 pitch mark, even with his violent delivery. Are people sleeping on him? No way he makes it to a comp pick, right?

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
18 days ago
Reply to  TapatioMan

No one is sleeping on him. Keith Law had him #1 in his last draft rankings, and there’ve been a lot of think pieces about him. Most feel he’s moved from a second/third round selection to middle of the first round at this point. Baseball America has him #16.

His fastball is a dominant weapon – most college kids just can’t catch up to it. But he’s largely a two pitch pitcher right now, with some force and violence in his delivery. He’s removed his cutter usage almost entirely this season, and is beginning to experiment with a change, to mixed effect.

He divides scouts, with many seeing significant relief risk, and potential injury down the road. You basically have to decide: is he Crochet, or is he (a lefty) Sam Bachman?

He’s the one player I keep swapping in and out of my short list. He’s tantalizing as FB/SL monster, but the Angels have been burned so often chasing velocity, and trying to transform bullpen pieces to starters. Soriano is the one exception, and that took years to accomplish.

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
18 days ago
Reply to  TapatioMan

The guy I think people are sleeping on a bit – though I’m confident he’ll be selected in the first or supplemental rounds – is Kyson Witherspoon, Oklahoma’s ace.

Four potentially above-average pitches, starting with a hard fastball, averaging 96-97, and a 60-grade slider with good movement and bite. Strong record of performance against ranked competition. High probability, mid-rotation projection, athletic and durable. If the Angels were selecting in their typical #8-15 range, he’d be near the top of my list as a target.

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
18 days ago

As we approach mid-season, I’ll keep posting my personal boards here in Nolan’s weekly college summary.

My #2 selection is down to five names, representing each of the four player types:

  1. Jamie Arnold, LHP (college)
  2. Seth Hernandez, RHP (prep)
  3. Ethan Holliday or Quentin Young, 3B (prep)
  4. Marek Houston, SS (college)

Expanding those names out to four imaginary draft scenarios, through the first 200 picks, and keeping the dream alive of the Angels trading for a CBA pick in the 32-37 range, here are names that intrigue me:

Round one (2): Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
CBA (32-37): Quentin Young, 3B/RF, prep (fantasy that he falls this far)
Round two (47): Andrew Fischer, 1B/3B, Tennessee
Round three (79): Alex Lodise, SS, Florida State
Comp pick (105): Ryan Wideman, OF, Western Kentucky
Round four (109): Ethan Hedges, 3B, USC
Round five (140): Dominic Fritton, LHP, NC State
Round six (169): Maximus Martin, SS, Kansas State
Round seven (199): Jacob Morrison, RHP, Coastal Carolina

Round one (2): Seth Hernandez, RHP, prep
CBA (32-37): Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Round two (47): Jared Spencer, LHP, Texas
Round three (79): Kyle Lodise, SS, Georgia Tech
Comp pick (105): James Quinn-Irons, OF, George Mason
Round four (109): Brent Iredale, 3B, Arkansas
Round five (140): Mason Neville, OF, Oregon
Round six (169): Colin Yeaman, SS, UC Irvine
Round seven (199): Cardell Thibodeaux, OF, Southern

Round one (2): Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, prep or Quentin Young, 3B/RF, prep
CBA (32-37): Ethan Petry, RF, South Carolina
Round two (47): Zach Root, LHP, Arkansas
Round three (79): Anthony Eyanson, RHP, Louisiana State
Comp pick (105): Jared Jones, 1B, Louisiana State or Ryland Zaborowski,1B, Georgia
Round four (109): Sam Tackett, OF, Virginia Tech
Round five (140): Bryce Hughes, SS, Texas Southern
Round six (169): Ben Miller, 3B, Duke
Round seven (199): Cade Obermueller, LHP, Iowa

Round one (2): Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
CBA (32-37): Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama
Round two (47): Max Williams, CF, Florida State
Round three (79): Joey Volini, LHP, Florida State
Comp pick (105): Robbie Burnett, OF, Georgia
Round four (109): Grant Jay, C, Dallas Baptist
Round five (140): Charles Davalan, CF, Arkansas
Round six (169): Anthony DePino, 3B, Rhode Island
Round seven (199): Antoine Jean, LHP, Houston

Last edited 18 days ago by Turk's Teeth
TapatioMan
Trusted Member
18 days ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

1. Have you seen progress on Arnold’s changeup? I know he doesn’t really need it vs college competition but he said he was going to start integrating it more this year.

2. Hernandez looks amazing. Clean delivery, easy gas. Impressive command for his age. What stood out to me the most was his absolute gem of a changeup.

Oh yea, one more question –

3. What’s up with Holliday? Has he been answering questions about his hit tool? Could’ve sworn I saw (about a month ago) fangraphs not liking him so much related to questionable hit tool. Is that concern still there?

Last edited 18 days ago by TapatioMan
Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
18 days ago
Reply to  TapatioMan

Arnold has upped his changeup usage by six percentage points this season – he’s using both his slider and change more – and his FB usage is down to 53% from 67% in 2024. He was still using it sparingly in early outings, but has been growing more confident in it of late.

Hernandez’s change is the best in the class at any level, and some scouts suggest it’s the best change they’ve seen since Dylan Lesko’s in the 2022 class.

In terms of development, analysts think each pitcher needs to focus on one thing: the changeup with Arnold, and a more consistent breaker with Hernandez.

Hatcher_Is_My_Homeboy
Trusted Member
19 days ago

Obviously Biased but Avia is an absolute stud. Beav fans were hyped for him and he’s exceeding expectations so far. Oregon State is in town this weekend at Fullerton so will be good to catch up with some of the old boys on staff. Hopefully my boys can meet a few of the dudes as well.

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
19 days ago

I think it’s worth quoting Keith Law’s summary of La Violette’s weekend outings. He’s grown increasingly bearish:

He swung at 20 pitches in the three games and whiffed on 10 of them; I assume everyone can figure out that percentage at home. He had two infield singles on the weekend plus that home run, which came on a 95-mph fastball from right-hander Marcus Phillips right over the inside edge of the plate. LaViolette unloaded on the pitch, showing plus bat speed and power. He just didn’t pick up sliders at all, from any pitchers; he put one in play in the whole series for an infield single that didn’t pass the pitcher’s mound.

LaViolette has no load at all, so he must be incredibly strong to generate the power that he does, although I don’t think giving him some small hand move to start the swing will solve his pitch-recognition issues. He can play center field, probably a 55 out there, certainly not in the league of Vance Honeycutt, the North Carolina center fielder who went in the back of the first round to Baltimore last season and had a similar offensive profile of easy plus power and too many strikeouts.

LaViolette may be a little bit of a victim of expectations here, as preseason hype that had him as a top-5 talent may have skewed everyone’s perceptions of him so that he looks disappointing when he’s a first-rounder but not at the very top of the round. He’s a back of the first round type of player, at best.

FungoAle
Legend
19 days ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

Thinking Joey Gallo 2.0

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
19 days ago

I do think we might want to look at strength of competition in these outings. Bremner was facing Davis, arguably the second weakest offense in a comparatively weak conference, whereas Arnold was facing the second best offense in a strong ACC conference (the Demon Deacons would go on the put 29 runs on the board in their next two games, while Arnold held them scoreless). By wRAE, his performance last weekend was one of the top five in the nation.

cookmeister
Trusted Member
19 days ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

I was firmly in the Holliday or Jace only category last we spoke. You made a pitch for Hernandez

He has crept into the conversation for me for sure.

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
19 days ago
Reply to  cookmeister

This might be paywalled, but I suggest this Baseball America feature, which covers the biggest outing of Hernandez’s this spring:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/seth-hernandez-strengthens-mlb-draft-stock-with-impressive-performance-at-nhsi/

The top high school pitcher in the country, righthander Seth Hernandez, took perhaps his biggest stage of the season Thursday afternoon at USA Baseball’s National High School Invitational

Throwing for his No. 1 ranked and undefeated Corona High team in the NHSI semifinals, Hernandez—currently the fourth-ranked player in the 2025 class—threw a complete game with 11 strikeouts against Columbus High (Miami) in front of a horde of major league scouts.

In a wide open draft class with no obvious 1-1 pick, Hernandez made his case to be the first player off the board by holding mid-90s velocity throughout, touching 99 mph in his final frame and routinely generating empty swings with a low-80s, 70-grade changeup that lived up to its hype. 

FungoAle
Legend
18 days ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

Hoping Seth’s performances are loud enough to tip Perry off of his college preferred draftee soapbox. If too loud, surely the Nats will be on it.

RexFregosi
Super Member
19 days ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

I saw him pitch against Cal State Northridge (ESPN+) and they didn’t seem impressed.
That was a a red flag.

cookmeister
Trusted Member
19 days ago
Reply to  RexFregosi

similarly, a former student of mine plays at Long Beach, I hit him up about Bremner and he wasn’t overly complimentary either

Pineapple12
Super Member
19 days ago

Holliday, Hernandez and Arnold are, or at least should be, seen as a clear top 3 atm. Turks alluded to this as well in a comment on another post.

Take the HSer that Washington doesn’t and call it a job well done.

RexFregosi
Super Member
19 days ago
Reply to  Pineapple12

the first is easy – there is a lot more college ball to be played yet so someones will warrant interests, but just pick EH, SH JA.

The interesting pick is the second one. so prospects 30-40 range deep dives get more interesting and I’d guess dynamic.

Pineapple12
Super Member
19 days ago
Reply to  RexFregosi

Hernandez is pumping an easy 99 mph FB companied with at least two plus secondary pitches as a HS senior.

I don’t know why Washington would pass on that, but if they do, I’d hope we sprint to draft him.

I won’t pretend to know anything outside of the top 20 or so prospects.

Last edited 19 days ago by Pineapple12
JackFrost
Super Member
19 days ago
Reply to  Pineapple12

I think the Angels have to go pitcher, because “drafting for need,” as they say. For a long time I used to think don’t take a pitcher with a Top 3 pick because the risk is too high. Not sure I feel that way any more. We desperately need an Ace and drafting is the most likely way to get him… developing one is a long shot and I sure as heck don’t see Arte paying for one any time soon…

So, here we are. I also like the profile of Hernandez; the plus, plus fastball is huge. The number one trait of an Ace is having big time swing and miss stuff, and to your point Hernandez has that. Jamie Arnold in contrast averages 93-95 mph on his fastball and tops out at 97… all the other stuff might be there but that is a little low on the velo for my requirements.

Last edited 19 days ago by JackFrost
Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
18 days ago
Reply to  JackFrost

I certainly wouldn’t knock Arnold on velocity. His 94 mph avg FB is right where Max Fried and Chris Sale have lived in their careers.

Not every ace lefty lives at 96-97 like Crochet and Skubal, and those that do often see volatility and injury along the way.

Movement and command matter too. And Arnold’s FB has 21 inches of ride, lives at 94-95, and gets 60 grades from nearly everyone, with Longenhagen calling it “plus-plus”. The most frequent comp is Chris Sale, and I’m buying.

FungoAle
Legend
19 days ago
Reply to  Pineapple12

I don’t think the Angels will pass on Hernandez or get the opportunity to draft him

Pineapple12
Super Member
19 days ago
Reply to  FungoAle

Ethan Holliday come on down !

FungoAle
Legend
19 days ago
Reply to  Pineapple12

Yeah, if no Seth. I’d roll the dice with Ethan. Put him at 3rd.

Jeff Joiner
Editor
Legend
19 days ago

Those scouting grades on Bremner are so nice. I know we’re drafting kid for what he will be, not what he is now.

As of now, Arnold looks better. But if Bremner’s stuff can be coached up a bit, the pitch grades say he’s a stud.

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