I previously mentioned that Burnes was the only QO-FA that made me stop and wonder if losing the pick was worth it.
As far as the remaining free agents, hell no to losing the pick for any of them.
There are some people who argue that we won’t be able to develop the drafted players anyway, so we might as well sign Santander/Alonso/Bregman etc. Or, that the chances of the drafted player ultimately being a productive major leaguer are so low that missing out on them is inconsequential.
Respectfully, I think these viewpoints are extremely shortsighted.
I think there’s an aspect of draft picks that is often overlooked. We don’t have to *keep* the drafted players. Players have values in different stages of their careers. Obviously, the best value is a productive major leaguer in their first 6 years of team control. But, value exists elsewhere as well. Many minor leaguers who never make it to the bigs or who never reach their potential have their own type of value. *Minor leaguers are currency.* You know, you can trade them for actual successful MLB players.
It’s common that a team trades a good MLB’er for a “haul” of prospects, only for those shiny prospects to not ever produce much value.
Look at the prospects the Dodgers sent when they got Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, Gerardo Carrillo, Donovan Casey. That return is so underwhelming for what was at the time the best rental SP and SS. This is one of many, many examples. I’m sure there are better examples.
So maybe it doesn’t matter that the Angels can’t develop a player. Maybe it doesn’t matter that our 2nd rounder won’t eventually be a 5+ war player for his career. It matters that we simply have these players to begin with. Draft pedigree is a real thing. Perceived value is a real thing. We can trade that hypothetical value for actual good players. Or keep them for ourselves. Most prospects won’t make it, that’s why you need many. And ideally, as many early picks and IFA’s as you can get.
You have to build up your stable of prospects, keep them coming in, avoid throwing away draft picks for soft-tossing lefties with bad peripherals coming off career years (TA), and avoid signing QO-FA’s who are limited defensively and don’t fit your competitive timeline.
Can we trade somebody for one of those competitive balance picks and have 3 picks.
2nd/ 30 something/ 46th
I’m a voice of reason!!
I guess if you’re the Angels they don’t mean a thing. Gavin Lux is a perfect example of a overrated guy who was a college player with a low ceiling. We as a organization are gonna have to do something we all know the 78 yr old stubborn rich guy doesn’t wanna do, WE HAVE TO GET WAY BETTER AT SCOUTING AND DEVELOPING AMERICAN HS SCHOOL PLAYERS AND LATIN AMERICAN PLAYERS. WHY, because college players are 4yrs older and already close their to their projected ceiling and probably ain’t gonna get much better better as opposed to Clayton Kershaw and Mike Trout who were both HS kids. WE GOT VERY LUCKY WITH ZACH NETO, MATT THAISS NOT SO MUCH!!!
I have not changed my mind. I do not want to give up a draft pick for any of the available free agents. The Angels lucked into the perfect draft this year with a number 2 overall pick. No reason to weaken their position for someone who wouldn’t make enough of a difference to get this team to the playoffs.
How are we weakening our draft position ? Our draft order has no bearing upon whether or not we sign a FA with a qualifying offer only that we will lose that pick.
Losing the pick weakens your chances/position in the draft. Number 46 pick is better than a number 47 pick, and far better than a number 85 pick. The more talent you have to choose from, the better your odds .
And the probability of you developing a player generating any real positive WAR after 5 years of development at that draft approximate draft position is? maybe what 5%?
Without speaking for him, I believe Cowboy’s point is that the No. 2 pick is an unusual opportunity in terms of the draft, but the No. 46 is not… and that the draft is a holistic deal is which success rarely hinges on one pick. The Angels’ failing over the past decade isn’t that they lost an occasional draft pick, it’s that they flubbed too many of the picks we did have.
If we’re going to trade Ward, we really need another outfielder first. Don’t want to be running minor league players out there. We are sorely lacking in even replacement value outfielders. Grichuk anyone?
Great content bruh!
Your point about the college guys stacking up in the 35-55 pick range is why I don’t want to sign anybody, where as a last year or next year I’d be OK.
We need to rebuild. That said, I’d like it fast. We can legitimately take a big time college bat or arm at #2 then turn around and get the other in round 2. We can get Bremner and one of Tennessee’s infielders to go with Moore for example. We haven’t had that type of infusion of guys who can all come up pretty darn fast in a long time, even if that “fast” in two years I’ll take filling out the IF around Schanuel/Neto/O’Hoppe and getting a possible ace over 2 drafts. Or a CF and pitcher… what ever.
Can’t draft high next year. Can’t try it again for a while. Let’s just do it now.
By the way, Jeff, do you sleep? How do you find the time to work full-time, be a full-time father and husband and still produce this substantial content? It’s pretty amazing!
Ok so how many of the guys listed above have generated career WAR over 5 to date?
How Valuable Is the Angels 46th Overall Draft Pick?
Count me as one who adamantly opposes giving up the second round draft pick in order to sign a free agent. Also, count me as one who is saying this without really knowing the value of the 46th overall pick. So let’s take a look at the last decade and see what type of talent is typically floating around in the 46th pick range. I’m going to focus on 2015-2021 as the recent draft classes are still in development.
2015 was a banner year for guys picked from 40 to 50. Austin Riley, Triston McKenzie, our own Scott Kingery, and Tony Santillan were all selected between slots 41 and 49. Tom Eshelman was the 46th pick and while he hasn’t panned out, that was more of a missed pick than lack of talent available.
2016 wasn’t as good for the 40 somethings, although there were some absolute studs left on the board. Nick Lodolo, Ben Bowden, and 46th pick Lucas Erceg are all made The Show with Erceg so far having the best career. Looking down the list, Pete Alonso, Sean Murphy, Jesus Luzardo and Brandon Marsh were all still on the board for another round or so. Pretty crazy draft.
Moving along to 2017 the Angels selected Griffin Canning with the 47th pick, inspiring his choice of jersey number. We were stoked that the righty with a first round grade fell to us. The results didn’t live up to the promise, but on draft night we were happy. Spencer Howard and Gavin Sheets bracketed Canning in a draft that hasn’t really panned out from top to bottom.
Steele Walker is a great name and he was the 46th pick in the 2018 draft. Parker Meadows went 44th and Simeon Woods Richardson 48th and Alek Thomas was available all round. A ton of this draft class is already out of baseball, the pandemic likely wiping out a ton of careers as they were getting started.
The kids drafted in 2019 missed their first year of minor league baseball due to the pandemic. Nasim Nunez was the 46th pick and got his first taste of MLB life last year. Seth Johnson, Gunnar Henderson, and Rece Hinds were notable picks in the 40s that year.
The 2020 draft is the oddest in MLB history. With only a month of college baseball played and varying degrees of high school ball, often none, it was a crapshoot. 46th overall pick Chris McMahon is no longer in baseball. Of the notable names picked in that vicinity Zach DeLoach, Jared Jones, and Evan Carter may develop into good players they may not.
As we get more recent, the odds of any player achieving MLB success dwindles. But in 2021 the Angels selected Ky Bush at 45 and there are a few Top 100 prospects that were drafted in his vicinity. Nicely rated prospects like Hunter Barco and Jackson Ferris were selections 44 and 47 in 2022.
Blake Wolters was the 46th overall pick in 2023 and we’d love to have him as a prospect. The 40s were heavy on college players that year and not many of them have moved beyond AA.
And last year the Angels drafted Chris Cortez from Texas A&M with the 45th overall pick. Chris has a really high octane fastball and an electric slider but command issues might relegate him to the bullpen. I think they will. Jonathan Santucci of the Mets was the 46th overall pick and I would have been happy to land him.
In short this was a lot of digital ink to say the 46th pick is quite likely to roll around with several quality prospects available. In taking a look at this very early Top 100 list there are a ton of college arms and some SEC bats listed from 40 to 50. The names on these lists will change from publication to publication but the makeups will largely be the same: projectible college players from major conferences. And the Angels tend to draft projectible college players in the second round, even going back to the Eppler days.
So, signing an Alonso or Santander or Bregman will likely cost the Angels a shot at an SEC bat or the best pitcher from a school like Georgia or Stanford. A guy with far less certainty but a guy with considerable promise. By definition, a Top 50 prospect if the club follows the charts.
Now that we’ve taken a look at what the pick is likely worth, has your opinion on signing a free agent attached to a qualifying offer changed?