Left-hander Kyle Muller went over to the Chunichi Dragons. He basically escaped from the Athletics and went on to try new things. The Athletics, for their part, acquired left-handers Jeffrey Springs and Jacob Lopez in a multi-player swap that sent right-hander Joe Boyle plus a couple of minor leaguers to the Rays. In other NPB news, Right-hander Peter Lambert signed with the Yakult Swallows.
The Yankees traded Nestor Cortez and Caleb Durbin to the Brewers for Devin Williams.
Patrick Wisdom is going to the Kia Tigers. The Naranjeros de Hermosillo have taken him off of their roster at the request of the K-Tigers.
Right-hander Yimi Garcia is going to the Toronto Blue Jays. The deal is for two years at $15 Million total.
The Astros aren’t even on Nolan Arenado’s wish list and they are still considering replacing Alex Bregman with him. They traded Kyle Tucker to the Cubs.
Here is a “cornucopia of clarity” about Roki Sasaki’s intentions. In summary, neither he nor his agent has any idea what his intentions are.
Captain Obvious strikes again
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10147535-mlb-commissioner-rob-manfred-says-contract-deferrals-can-become-problematic
My response to the esteemed Commissioner will be stated as high-brow as possible:
“DUH!!!!!”
I burst out laughing!
Talk about missing the problem!
“All of the Dodgers’ future payments might not be much of an issue given how lucrative the franchise is, but Manfred still believes it could set a bad precedent for the league.”
He’s clearly thinking of what it means for the owners’ financial situations, not what it does to competitive balance
https://x.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1868816609575686375
Were there goes another rotation option.
We are signing the other Japanese SP on the market 😇, ya know that Roki guy
Or Burnes’o-san
I feel weird not being on the Burnes 🚉 with yall.
Officially hopping on
So $40 million more per year on one player? $120m per season on 3 players? Just to add 4 WAR?! No way Arte goes for that. Maybe if the team were on the verge of breaking through – but for the last three seasons it has been essentially a .400 team but for Ohtani.
Hopping on in the sense of if it happens, I’ll be pumped because big FA signings are fun and Burnes is awesome in many ways.
Don’t personally think it’d be a wise decision and would prefer we don’t.
If Arte was willing to take the payroll up to nearly $300m per season – I agree it would be fun. But he has never indicated any willingness to do that. So the fun would be over quickly and replaced with indigestion while trying to digest three huge free agent contracts (two of which are arguably dead money) and still attempting to field a palatable 40 man roster.
How dare you dream about signing a big time free agent pitcher P12.
You must accept the complete rebuild and enjoy it without complaints!
your butt hurts showing
it would hurt even more if I was more emotionally invested.
Just as a bow on this WAR discussion and when it makes sense to spend for free agents:
The 2001 Angels generated 40 WAR with a very young club. Stoneman realized it was time to spend some money and got Appier and Sele. That 2002 team generated almost 60 WAR!! mostly because the young players continued to develop and had great years.
It’s fun to look at those teams and see what a talented farm system can do.
What about 2003 with basically the same “great” team?
Tons of injuries in 2023. For example Erstadt who produced 7 WAR IN 2002 missed 100 games and produced less than 1 WAR. Glaus missed 70 games and dropped to 1.3 WAR due to injuries.
Even so the team still was good for35 WAR which should have put them around 82 wins. They were a bit unlucky to end with only 77.
Injuries sunk their ship as sometimes happens.
And they were also having a declining season because they were peaking and starting to get old . If you look at 1996-2003 and take out 2002 which included key years for the WS Champion core the Angels averaged a whopping 78 wins each year. So it is not unreasonable to argue that 2002 was a fluke and based upon the fact that that core was starting to age out towards free agency and it was probably their last & best chance to win without getting reinforcements.
The success in 2000’s was due to a mixture of the Angels developing a factory of young players coming up through the system and key Free agent acquisitions. The Angels got early contributions from some of those young players during the 2002 playoff run ( Shields, Frankie, Figgins & Horseface) and subsequent years but by 2004 & 2005 there were a ton of contributions from players that weren’t on the 2002 Champs. And by 2008 & 2009 All on the older WS Core that were not late season callups on the 2002 squad were long gone.
Sorry to Crush you narrative but 2002 through 2009 was the result of an old core coming off of their peaks being supplemented by an elite farm system and shrewd free agent acquisitions and trades ( Remember Jose Guillen for Juan Gone & Mice tits anyone?)
Thankfully you weren’t in charge back then ’71. You probably would have wanted to do a “complete rebuild”right after the Angels finished 75-87 in 2001
Wrong again. 75-81 with a young core of homegrown talent is exactly when you go to the Free Agent market and try to add 10-15 WAR. Ive said that again and again today. So stop putting words in my mouth – particularly ones that are not correct.
If you can get 30WAR out of your core players – then you supplement with Free Agents. The Angels current core is no where near there – averaging around 16 WAR for the last 3 seasons.
Wrong about what? Your revisionist history or your delusional GM fantasies? I haven’t put any words in your mouth and certainly do not want to be responsible for your incessant ad nauseum blatherings but I would be remiss if I did not continue to correct your constant inaccuracies.
BTW At what point did I even mention anything about the Angels current core? The point I was making ( which you have apparently missed as you do with most of my responses) is that there are other ways to build a winning ball club other than your unhealthy fixation with a COMPLEAT REBILLD ( still dont know what that is since you refuse to give me any examples) The Angels most recent success in 2002 through 20009 is a prime example of an alternative winning formula.
What is inaccurate about the WAR analysis that has made up the majority of my posts today.
Then there were comments about the budget and how there is little to no chance that Arte will increase payroll from its current $200m to sign a free agent like . Is that inaccurate?
There was also a WAR analysis of the 2001 and 2002 Angels team and a comment about the injuries on the 2003 team. Inaccurate? Revisionist?
Finally you asked me to tell you what I felt a complete rebuild looked like and I explained it in what I thought was a clear viewpoint. Focus on the Farm rather than the big club trading away any player of value with 2 years or less left on his contract. Invest in top coaching and technology for the minor leaguers.
I am really unclear what you mean by inaccuracies. Everything was a combination of facts (WAR) and my opinion. You may disagree with the latter – you are certainly entitled to have a different opinion. You seem to enjoy making judgmental type comments.
By the way, no offense but I am going to school you again in our bet this season just like last season!
You really are a piece of work ’71. Again you bloviate on about your unproven inaccurate and unsubstantiated concepts (for the THIRD time today how about an example of a successful complete rebuild or is this concept so complex only you know how to articulate this theory?) but then never take the time to understand anyone’s responses.
Or maybe you’re just forgetting other people’s responses because you’re starting to lose it? I’m hoping the former despite the constant annoyances. So stop being so GA and actually look at my postings instead of incessantly whining about a bet I paid off months ago.
Okay lets see without wasting more of my precious time:
Your WAR analysis vs wins is not a close correlation. Case in point the 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles.
The 2001 Angels were not “a very young team”
I said your complete rebuild definition was word salad and I stand by that response even more so with this further synopsis of a plan that every team in MLB should be trying to implement without flushing the roster every 7 years. But again give me an example of a successful complete rebuild form years past. Or are you going to continue to ignore this reasonable request?
I think most rebuilds of the past are somewhat irrelevant now that the rules have changed so much. Most lower budget teams simply tanked to rebuild. They traded players away and then sucked for a while obtaining numerous top 3 picks like Houston did.
That model no longer applies. So how to rebuild under the current rules? It’s going to be tough to find examples because the new rules make it so you can’t just tank.
So how does a team with nearly $80 million committed to two players for several more seasons and a limited budget rebuild under the current rules? I’m not sure there are examples to give you. I’m not sure those examples exist – it’s all new.
My theory under these circumstances is that you need to gather as many young players as possible and focus on building the minor leagues into a top-5 system which then feeds the major leagues team and hopefully build a 30 WAR young team from those players. To do that you need to draft well and be willing to trade away any major leaguers of value that have 2 years or less of cost control. It’s a literal gathering of young players who are coached well with all technology advantages.
At that point you hit the free agent market to add 10-15 WAR and then truly try to compete.
Along the way you may have 100 loss seasons- but the current team is close to that already and what is the real difference between that and 72 wins. It’s all mediocrity and has been for a decade.
So – in short- I’m not sure an example is possible given the new rules, an owner with a set budget and $80 million committed to two non-productive players. Is there a prior example that applies- no. So I gave you my idea of what a rebuild could look like under these circumstances. I’m being creative. You want an established playbook and I’m saying that’s not possible.
So over the last few days these long rambling posts you have subjected all of us to our just unproven academic diatribe ?
Man what a waste.
Sounds good. Back to the old rules. Let’s just agree not to agree and stop wasting precious time responding to each other’s posts with the exception of any bet you’d like to place on the ‘25 season.
No thanks on all counts.
Why would anyone ever want to bet with you ? you cant even take the time to acknowledge it when someone pays off their debt.
I could only imagine how bad it is when you lose a bet.
You make it very hard to stand by my general rule of not making any personal attacks.
I’ll take the high road and just wish you a nice holiday season and nice life. I’ll ask again you do not respond to me and I’ll extend the same courtesy.
Cheers.
I agree with your assessment of the team during that time period.
of course. excuses.
Appier and Sele were garbage lol.
2 core pieces, Glaus and Erstad injured.
2002: Word Series Champion
2004: AL West Division
2005: Al West Division
There was no 2003. the year 2003 simply just didn’t happen, it was a myth – no baseball of significance was played that year.
And how did those “division winners” work out?
Everyone including myself, has warm and fuzzies when it comes to the 02 team – who played over their heads. Scioscia pushed the exact right buttons at the exact right time, they exceled in the playoffs and were fortunate to have Dusty Baker hand them a title. It’s all good, they will forever be in the books as 2002 champs, but let’s not let time color the rose glass which many seem to see that team through.
60 WAR! (just liked the model predicted in March 2002)
You are the guy who guaranteed an Ohtani signing with the Angels and other optimistic viewpoints 😎. I’m not saying you are wrong- I’m just saying much of what you predict is highly unlikely.
my point is
Everyone and everyone picked ASU Football 16th out of 16 teams in the Big 12 this year (3-9 shitshow the last two years), and their chance were minimal throughout Nov’24. Now they are playing on New Years Day in the Peach Bowl.
Sign Burnes – it will give us a punchers chance to have a frontline starter all year.
I understand about catching lightening in a bottle and no one will ever accuse you of being pessimistic. But Burnes would maybe move the needle 1 percent at most. It would be a complete waste of money at this point and with this team and the budget is already limited. Do you think this team can really afford 6 years and $220m?!
No, Burnes would be a tremendous asset and a true No.1. However, Burnes will not come here so you can exhale a bit. He’ll sign with a team that will provide more certainty of the post season. I have the Red Sox at 35-1 to win the WS, so I want him to go there.
That would be the kind of team to add Burnes. Im breathing – I promise 😀 just think it would be complete stupidity for the Angels to add Burnes – there is literally no purpose he would serve other than to hang on a banner outside the homeplate entrance. To pay $40 million per year at this point for a pitcher is a complete waste of money. He is the kind of guy you add when you are close – not when everything has to go perfectly to even have a chance at .500
You can always use a pitcher like that. If he was only going to be around for 2-3 years I would whole heartedly agree but 5-6 years would be different. We would have a legitimate #1 and 2 #2s. We would have a very good staff for 5-6 years while developing all of our young pitchers and you might even have pieces to trade as a result. I believe he would be a very good long term investment and his cost goes off the books in 2 years with Rendon. He could position us to be very competitive for years 3-5 or 6 of his contract. I agree, he may make little difference for the 1st 2 years of his deal but having him on your team already in 2027 would give you a big head start and he would be cheaper now than trying to do the same thing in 2 years.
As Cuba Gooding Jr said – “show me the money”. Where is the budget to sign Burnes?
If we are living in fantasyland then sure – let’s do it! And add a few more free agents as well.
And who are you saying is the #2 – Kikuchi?! If so, good luck with that!
Soriano is a very legitimate #2 even if you don’t believe Kikuchi is. We don’t know what the budget is and everyone is simply talking about hypothetical moves that would make the team better. As you have previously stated, a full rebuild is very difficult under the current draft rules. If after a few years you didn’t see the team close to competing you could always trade him, And I actually would rather watch very good major league players than young players who are not yet ready. There is no guarantee they are going to get any better. 3-5 years from now we could be in the same place we are now hoping for new young players. As others have stated, we should continue to acquire and develop as many young players as we can so that we increase the odds and have the biggest pool to choose from and trade with. This should not prevent us from acquiring proven players who can improve our team now. I don’t believe it’s either/or and that’s where I fall out of favor with many here. I believe you can do both but it’s not my money and we do have the two big contracts, particularly Rendon’s which fortunately is gone in two years. I would be fine if they said were going to acquire as many young players as we can for the next 2 years and then try to compete, but until I see evidence of that by trading current assets for youth, I don’t believe they are embracing the rebuild. Gitch says how do I know and I don’t, and as he says there is still plenty of time before the season starts. But if we still have Ward, Anderson, and Rengifo to start the season, then we are not embracing a rebuild.
Agree on both points. All one has to do is look at the 2023 Royals transformation. Fresh off of a 106-loss season, go on to the playoffs. Or the 1990 Twins, worst to first in 1991 and on and on. No other sport do you see teams leap from the bowels to the penthouse like baseball.
farm teams. Do we have those? Rocket City is the closest thing, I guess.
Dude – the 2024 Royals added Lugo, Wacha, Singer and Lorenzen to their starting staff. In 2023 it was Ragans, Greinke, Chapman, Yarbrough and Lynch.
So – in 2023 KC generated 2.9 in pitching WAR. 2.9!!
In 2024, KC generated 21 pitching WAR.
It was not some fluke. They completely redid their starting rotation to go along with a decent offense (which produced 20 WAR in 2024).
So, they had 17 WAR improvement in pitching which led to 86 total wins – basically correlating with their 41 total WAR.
It was not some magical fluke that led to their resurgence. It was a bunch of new players.
100%, it was no farm. In the case of the 2023 to 2024 Royals, it was more about the right acquisitions not any farm callups. Lugo and Wacha added that much value and Cole Ragan’s flipped the script after his trade from the Rangers to round out a nice staff. Bobby Witt was early Trout-like, rest of the lineup was worse than the Halos.
So…go get the right players. Build a staff and Moses will part the red sea. Burnes-baybee.
But there is no money in the budget to do that. Angels are already at 200m. Arte would have to go north of $250m and I don’t think there is any chance of that.
If we signed the equivalent of 22-23 Lugo and Wacha TODAY most of the guys on here would piss shit and drown in tears because Arte is evil and Perry is stupid and so cheap pocket the money and no investment and blah blah fkin blah.
I wonder how much payroll space is left. We’re at the point where I kind of want to compete but need to keep the big picture in play.
Polanco plus one bullpen arm and the Angels could call it an off season, see how the first couple of months play out, then likely have a fire sale.
I’m starting to realize there’s no way they’ll trade Ward while “intending to compete” this off season.
Jeff – your post would be flawless with one minor revision: change all “intending to compete” to “intending to sell as many season ticket packages without increasing payroll costs”
I can’t tell if people are kidding about this. Do people really think that the Angels marketing guys think that keeping Rengifo and Ward = ticket package sales and that that is dictating FO moves? Cause I doubt that. The math’s pretty easy to do.
I mean, they can say what ever they want. Everyone does. But if they want to trade guys none of the players in question signal a big difference in how the team will play or draw this year.
I think both those guys would have been gone last year if Rengifo would have cleared medicals and Ward would have been able to hit his way out of a wet5 paper bag when the deadline was coming. It was just smart/the only choice available to keep em in July.
I don’t see how adding Soler and DeArnaud signals that we are keeping players and “going for it”. It’s December. They have till the end of March to trade guys, especially if it’s for players they know will start out on the farm in April.
Not saying I am 100% sure they aren’t stupid enough to hold onto Ward etc. But I don’t see why I’m supposed to think they aren’t gonna make moves when Christmas hasn’t even passed yet.
It 1980s car sales methodology. Give them enough logical information to support their previously decided and flawed emotional decision.
Arte: “That is a lucid, intelligent, well thought-out objection…OVERULED.”
If we sign Burnes, we are in the hunt
No we aren’t. He would add 4 WAR at most. Puts us at around 70 wins
everything has to go right but he’s the one piece that would/could make a difference to get a playoff spot.
if everything else goes right. and that means Detmers, Trout, etc.
No way. No how. If EVERYTHING went right and they had him it’s maybe 80 wins.
Nothing ever goes that right over 162 games.
The Angels are not 4 WAR away from a playoff spot. Even best case.
You are speaking in absolutes about a hypothetical.
I don’t even disagree with you on this one lol. It may be highly highly unlikely, but you can’t sit behind your keyboard and guarantee there is a 0% chance.
Actually he can and did. It’s all about probability. It may not be 0, but it’s very low.
Okay maybe 1/2 of 1%. It’s like Dumb and Dumber – “you mean I have a chance?”
Over 162 games the warts always show. The cream rises and the turds fall. Probabilities are the only thing that matters in baseball evaluation. With the Angels roster (which has produced no more than 17 offensive WAR in 3 seasons when you subtract Ohtani) the probability of a playoff spot even with Burnes is essentially zero.
Frank?
Mike Trout
— .299 career BA
— 122 HRs away from 500
— 1,352 hits away from 3,000
I root for Trouty as hard as I root for the team. Would love to see him find some health luck and get closer to knocking down career milestones. He was totally on pace for 3,000 hits until his body broke down :'(
Agreed. If he could somehow play 125ish games this year that would be great. That likely gets him 25ish HR and we can watch a chase to 400 to keep us occupied.
Yesterday the issue of WAR came up and whether 1 WAR actually translates to 1 win. The following article does a good (albeit deep) dive into the issue. Essentially, a 0 WAR club would be filled with replacement level players and would be expected over a 162 game season to win at a .294 pace or 47.628 games. Thus, any team that generates 0 WAR over a season would be expected to win 47 or 48 games and any WAR generated over WAR would correlate to another win. While it’s not a perfect correlation (i.e. 1 WAR for 1 win) it is VERY close. I suggest the Community read this since it reveals just how far away the Angels (with 63 wins) are from “competing”. It also shows explains the correlation between losing a 10 WAR player in Ohtani and winning 10 fewer games in 2024.
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-wins
As further evidence of the value of WAR in analyzing what a team needs to improve (all statistics from Baseball Reference):
1.The 2024 Angels generated 11.6 offensive WAR and 7.9 pitching WAR for a total of 19.5 WAR. If you add that to 47 (the number of wins expected of a 0 WAR team) it comes to 66 wins. So it’s not exact to the 63 wins the Angels actually had – but it’s pretty close.
2. The 2023 Angels generated 16.1 offensive WAR and 10.1 pitching WAR for a total of 26.7. Adding that to 47 comes to 73.7 wins which is pretty darn close to the 73 wins the team actually realized.
3. The 2022 Angels generated 11.4 offensive WAR and 18.4 in pitching WAR for a total of 29.8 WAR. Adding that to 47 comes to 76.8 which again is not exact but is close enough to the 73 wins actually achieved by the team.
Lets look at some other teams.
4. The 2024 Texas Rangers generated 20.7 offensive WAR and 7.1 pitching WAR for a total of 27.8 WAR. That would translate to 74.8 wins and the 2024 Rangers won 78 games. So – pretty close.
5.The 2024 Dodgers generated 39.4 offensive WAR and 6.9 pitching WAR for a total of 46.3 WAR. Adding that to 47 comes to 93.3 expected wins. The team won 98 games. So, again, not perfect but its a pretty close correlation.
Without Ohtani in 2024, the Angels produced 19.5 WAR down from 26.7 in ’23 and 29.8 in ’22 so the loss of Ohtani correlates nearly exactly with his lost production. Thus, the Angels as currently built are an approximately 19-20 WAR team which translates to an expected win total in the 60s.
For the team to truly “compete” would require at least an additional 20 WAR from offense and/or pitching. At approximately $8 million per WAR that would translate to around $160 million to $200 million added to payroll per season. That aint never gonna happen with Arte.
All of this is to say that this team has so far to come to “compete” that I just dont think it can be accomplished via free agency. Even adding Alonso would add only 3 WAR which is an expensive drop in the bucket. I really see no other course than a total rebuild unless Arte suddenly decides to bring the payroll over $350 million.
This is the most helpful explanation of WAR and wins that I have seen, thank you.
In terms of predicting wins in the future (2025), there has to be an estimate of team WAR which means estimating individual player WAR. Trout had a WAR of 1.1 last year but we expect higher this year if he stays healthy and so on….A team can add WAR by increasing payroll and buying expected WAR but returning players can get better or worse and their WAR might go up or down. We would have to hope that Trout, Neto, Schanuel, O’Hoppe, Adell and others have significant increases in their WAR in 2025 not to mention our young pitchers.
I don’t disagree with your analysis that the Angels are a long way from competing but developing players should lead to increased WAR. That is why we need a rebuild instead of buying free agents.
Right:
Maybe Trout stays healthy and generates 4 WAR. Maybe Neto (who actually produced a very good 5 WAR) goes up to 6 WAR. Maybe O’Hoppe gets to 3 WAR etc etc. Maybe Ward improves to 3 WAR from 2.
The problem is it’s just not likely that everything will go that well over 162 games – and even if everything comes together it might add 10 WAR total with the Angels approaching 75 wins (which would actually be extraordinary).
It’s just way too many ifs requiring the stars and planets to align. And even then it’s 73 or so wins.
Oh, and by the way, yes our FO has also done this math. That’s why I think they are saying what ever they want, but actually rebuilding. They just can’t buy enough WAR.
They can’t do the “full tear down”. I don’t think they want to. That would mean finding a way to ditch Trout and Rendon. I think they think this will be over in a year or so, so they signed Kikuchi.
They have money and CAN sign some guys when the time is right. They don’t have to develop 20-25 WAR. It’s like so. Adell gets better, add 2 WAR. The catching position stays healthy. Add 2 WAR. Neto stays healthy. Add 1 WAR. Soriano pitches a whole year. Add 1 WAR. Stephenson and the pen are better as a unit. Add 2 WAR. Trout plays. Add 3 WAR. A couple rookies have good debuts later. Add1 WAR. Nolan hits a little better. Add 0.5 WAR.
Especially if they develop a about 500 innings worth of good pitching this year it will help a lot. Add a couple prospects in the field later and improvement from the three main kids from last year…. now you have to buy about 10 WAR to be goodish.
That’s getting into at least realistic territory.
It also shows why Shit Angel Fan Ju Ju is REAL. If you look at the even below career average WAR for FAs we bring in who then get hurt and suck every year it’s been basically the 10-15 WAR we needed all those seasons we were closer to actually competing.
You are right on the problem. And yes, when you bring in a free agent and pay him to produce 6-8 WAR per season for 5+ seasons (like Rendon) and he only produces 1 or less – it is a complete cluster-F – particularly if you keep to a budget. It hog ties the team for years. For an owner like Cohen, he shrugs that off and spends more money. But for an owner like Arte (who understandably has a budget) it’s a torpedo.
Then you are left hoping that Rendon can turn it around- or Trout can stay healthy- but Father Time stops for no one. It’s just wishful thinking that is much more likely to lead to disappointment.
It’s not just one guy at a time, like Rendon. It’s when you add Trout, then a couple Cozart or Drury types… then an arm or two…. now your 12 WAR down and sub-.500.
It’s actually why, when people bitch about “not buying enough depth” I question that as well. Who signs or can trade for 12 WAR of depth? If those guys were worth that in Feb they aren’t “depth”. If they are, how are you trading for all of that? even the good teams, they add what, 5 WAR at the deadline with all combined moves?
It’s also why you DO trade unicorns if your team’s really in a hole.
It’s why Arte has been frustrating to me. I’m actually okay with the budget he has set. That is his prerogative as it is his business. Budgets are part of business- he absolutely is entitled to have one – and he is actually quite generous with his spending.
The problem I have with Arte is he is completely unrealistic about the minuscule chance of achieving the “competing” goal. He doesn’t accept failure as a reality and properly react to it. Once Trout and Rendon began consistently producing maybe 2WAR between them- he’s got to pivot to either 1.) increasing payroll dramatically to make up for the missing production/WAR or 2) be willing to cut bait and start over.
Telling everyone that the team’s goal is to “compete” under these circumstances is arguably false advertising. Anyone who can peel back the onion even a little can see it is really not possible at this time except with magical thinking (ie maybe everyone will stay healthy and have career years).
As you point out, the baseball people in the Org know the WAR problem but they have an owner who is not reacting appropriately to it. Signing Kikuchi is just another marketing move. At best it adds 2 WAR which is nothing on this team. But he arguably puts some butts in seats. If the Angels were 10 WAR away from competing, it would be a reasonable move. Here it’s just a bandaid on a festering wound.
To actually buy that amount of depth would be staggering in cost.
Even the Dodgers have guys like Gonsolin, May,etc.
And that is why I argue for a complete rebuild. If you are going to stick to a budget in the 200m range and half of that is dead money spent on non-productive players, you need your low cost young players to generate say 30 WAR to bring the team close to 80 wins. You do that via draft and development just like the O’s did.
At that point you look to add 10-15 WAR via free agency. That creates a competitive club.
At this point the Angels cannot realistically compete with the budgetary restraints and the sunk cost in Trout and Rendon. It’s actually impossible even if they add 5 or 6 more WAR via free agency. So why do it? The better and more logical baseball decision (particularly with the #2 draft pick) is to tear it down and build around the young players aiming to achieve 80 wins in a couple seasons. At that point free agency makes sense. Until then it’s unfortunately useless.
Please define in cogent and tangible detail what a “complete rebuild” and provide examples of successful “complete rebuilds” including verification that none of these successful “complete rebuilds” included any free agent signings. Also please explain how the new limiting draft lottery rules won’t negatively impact the timeline of a “complete rebuild”
I’ll take my answer of the air
Thank You
Your second point is the most difficult issue with regard to a full rebuild. You can’t just tank anymore.
Accordingly, to me, a full rebuild includes trading away players like Ward and Rengifo and Trout (if possible) and anyone of value who is under control for 2 years or less. It means making trades at the draft deadline to build up the farm system. To me a full rebuild would look like accepting 100 loss seasons for a couple of years to commit to a future of young upward momentum talent. Because that talent is tough to predict- you need to fill the minor leagues with players to raise the odds enough will succeed to then be in a position to add via free agency and then compete.
A full rebuild means a commitment by the Org to rebuild. It means ending the hybrid “compete” approach that the team has taken which has had little success. It is waving the white flag and admitting the current approach that has been taken for the last decade is not working. The focus would be to become a top-five farm system so the minor leagues would be the focus for a few seasons rather than the big club.
That is what a full rebuild means to me under the current draft rules.
Dude sorry but most of that sounds like complete word salad.
With the lack of providing successful comps form the past are we to assume that this is a novel approach that has never been done before?
Why don’t you tell me exactly what part sounds like word salad. Just because you say it sounds like “word salad” doesn’t mean that it is word salad. I thought I was pretty clear.
It’s not as simple as it used to be since tanking is not an available strategy anymore. So what I’m saying is a revised strategy of not caring so much about the product that is on the field and focusing on building up the farm system. Get rid of the “compete” mantra cause it ain’t gonna happen for awhile.
I am sincerely interested in what you would like for them to do 26. There is no one plan or method because it depends a lot on the amount of young talent any team is able to generate which is a combination of skill and luck. Then they need to address their holes via trade and free agency. Houston is probably the poster child for the rebuild under different rules. They very successfully acquired and developed enough young talent to be very successful and they have made it last by adding pieces and not hanging on to some of their players when they got more expensive. Other teams have done rebuilds but, other than Houston, none have really been sustained so far. It will be interesting to see what the Orioles do long term. The early 21st century angels were not planned, they just got lucky and had a great group of young players show up at nearly the same time and added pieces as needed. They were able to capitalize on that for nearly 10 years. We are no where near anything like that right now. We have 1 or 2 good young players in the majors. The pitching looks promising going forward but not the position players.
We have also entered a whole new world of rebuilding since tanking is off the table and the lottery creates uncertainty. I would argue that rebuilding in the current system is more trade centric where a team in rebuild mode needs to be willing to trade away their major leaguers with 1 or 2 years left on their contracts to fill their minor league system with tons of young talent. Then invest in the best coaches and technology to increase the odds that these players actually develop into productive major leaguers.
I agree with that.
I completely agree with you. The Angels can’t do it with Free Agency because that would cost way too much. They can’t expect much if anything out of Trout or Rendon. They have let the farms slip so; no significant cheap WAR is on the way. They have to go rebuild to escape mediocrity and that means building from the bottom up. Trading chips that will be gone in two years should be traded while they have value both from the point of view controllable years and value from recent performance. Either they continue to muddle in mediocrity like they have for ten years, or build something better through the Farm system. If you see Arte sign a big name again, it means the team isn’t going to really compete anytime in the near future and you’d be better off watching another team.
TBH, I think there’s a good chance this team isn’t competitive for the next five years as the farm teams haven’t improved significantly.
I would hope that with a focus on building the minor league system into a top 5 system, the team could be good again in around three years particularly with the young players it has and the second overall pick in the next draft, not to mention the high picks in each round after that But that may be optimistic. It may be five years, but I can tell you one thing it will never happen unless the focus changes. We will be mired in mediocrity without a change in focus.
And as the farm gets better, the baseball at the major league level will naturally improve. It will also be fun to watch because these will be homegrown players.
Excellent take.
Agreed, depth should be built up through the minors. The farm system has been a huge WAR hole, specifically with pitching over the last ten years.
I saw either Zips or Steamer has us with 30 ish war so actually around 78-80 wins for next season.
It was similar for last season and requires really everything to go right – which it just is not likely to do.
Last year I thought the 78 win (ie 30 WAR) prediction was too high particularly without Ohtani. I see no real improvement at this point and unless there are additions between now and March would probably predict 67-70 wins.
By the way – I think ZiPS is actually predicting the 2025 Angels at 64 wins.
The Angels will still have to go through with playing the games. There might be a grievance from all the players on other teams who would miss out on padding their counting stats.
Yes – they do have to play the games and I suppose we have to watch them. I think the really interesting storyline going into this season is Will Mike Trout stay healthy enough to get 300 at bats. Also, will Neto improve on his 5 WAR 2024. So there are still interesting things to watch. This discussion was more about the realities of the overall problem and how difficult it will be to solve.
Excellent Comment. There is really no way the team competes next year and likely the year after. I like my Hopium in small doses.
I realize there is a modern desire to quantify performance and then use math to identify an ability to win games. However, these are humans and baseball isn’t math. Players play differently for different teams and in different circumstances. Every team focuses more or less on certain factors. There are also good years and bad years for players, good and poor stretches also. You can factor in ballparks, managers, supporting lineups and other elements. This doesn’t even include the behind the scenes HGH or steroid use that is supposedly out of the game but isn’t.
Given the above, ideas about WAR are useful tools to a limited extent. WAR on the Dodgers will be different from WAR on the As or Marlins. Teoscar was perfect for the Dodgers. He was a player with decent tools who was going to be a semi-afterthought in a lineup with 3 former MVPs, a quality hitting catcher and other talent. He won’t be the same player if he’s on the Marlins and his numbers won’t be the same. Not will his WAR be the same. Further, teams with quality coaching can move guys up, and those without move guys down.
This is why re-signing guys that can play well in the given team environment is important. There are outliers like Ohtani and MVPs. Cy Young guys, too. But otherwise most players need certain circumstances to perform optimally. I post this because it explains why various trade ideas don’t work, why “hot prospects” aren’t the way to heaven, and why some guys like Rengifo and Ward might be worth more in Anaheim than via trading them elsewhere for talent that likely may never pan out.
Anyway, food for thought. Cheers all.
It’s hard to deny the correlation though. Did you see the actual numbers? They correlate better than most numbers do – it’s an important part of the analysis as to how far it really would take for the Angels to “compete”. Without extreme payroll flexibility, I think it is a complete impossibility in the near future. If the budget is going to stay where it is, I just don’t see any other solution than a rebuild. I think the WAR analysis makes that clear.
Spending like a drunken sailor on payroll does help as the Mets have shown. But there are other ways, too. See Rays and Guardians.
Yes. Agreed. But the Rays and Guardians use strong farm systems to add production/WAR. Unfortunately the Angels have had a mediocre farm system so it’s harder to follow that model. A reasonable formula is to try to get 30WAR out of your low cost players and then supplement at that point to add 10-15 WAR. But that is going to require a strong farm system and obtaining that is going to require a rebuild most likely. Unless magic thinking.
I have to disagree with you. The whole point of the article was to show that WAR is a very good tool to predict the needs of the team to win games, and he showed it mathematically by showing that it could predict it within a few wins fairly easily. Billy Bean started paying attention to the math and changed the game of baseball. The Dodgers, are very good at math. Arte, not so much.
The Dodgers have paid three MVPs in their primes by giving them more money than their former teams. Th wet just signed Snell for more than anyone else was paying. That’s not wisdom. It’s wealth and avarice.
The Dodgers have very little homegrown talent. They have become the George Steinbrenners of this era. You can argue Tampa might have discovered something via WAR. Billy Bean had no money to work with.
Please don’t use the Dodgers as an example. What’s next: the Mets? They are just buying playing via spending more money.
Yeah. Yesterday we had cherry picking re the Rangers and how their WAR was so much higher than their win total. But I knew that 1 win GENERALLY does actually equal 1 WAR. I also knew that there had been all kinds of internet ZOMS! regarding how weird that Rangers outcome was last year.
But why would anyone look into that?
The ‘24 Rangers total WAR versus wins was pretty close. By produced WAR the ‘24 Rangers would have been predicted to win around 75 games – and they won 78. That’s why I responded yesterday that the poster was wrong on that statement.
Where I will agree with that poster is that the Rangers under performed by way of EXPECTED WAR. Their players under performed, which, as we know can happen. Just because you have a 10 WAR player does it lead that that player will produce 10 WAR. Maybe that was his point?
Exactly. It’s why when you look at their zips they don’t have a bunch of holes to fill. They are better than average everywhere. They are exactly who should just sign depth and insurance, and that’s about it.
Bochy is worth +3 WAR.
That is not as good as Wash, but that’s the reason
Your excellent WAR discussion is why Perry blew it, IMO, by drafting Bachman and Schanuel. You simply can’t draft low ceiling players in the top 10. It’s the only way to get cheap WAR. Neto was a good pick and we don’t know about Moore yet. They also can’t develop a high achieving 2nd round pick to get an above average player. They literally cannot miss the 2025 draft.
Yes – with (1) the budgetary constraints and (2) at least half of the budget sunk on non-productive players – you have to hit on high ceiling young players. Neto was a great pick. He produced 5 WAR last season – extremely productive. And yes, Bachman and Schaunel are high floor/low ceiling players who would be fine on a team that already had sufficient production/WAR. But given (1) and (2) above, the Angels need their young players to produce sufficiently to get them to around 80 wins. That doesn’t happen with low ceiling players.
We need Arte to say “f-it” one way or the other. Either blow up the budget and spend like a drunken sailor and build up the team that way. Or blow up the team and start over building around Neto and O’Hoppe and the young pitching. It is one or the other. Status-quo with the addition of a few WAR here and there by Free Agency is going to do nothing and we will continue to be stuck in the 60-70 win hell.
It’s too extent too late to blow it up since the Angels , I don’t think, can pick in the top 10 again next season or after. By the time the Angels get more high draft picks, the young guys will be close to 30!
If you (and more importantly the Angels) truly believe this then the only solution would be to bring payroll WAY up and sign a bunch of productive players who actually produce.
This is what I have been saying all along and because they aren’t appearing to do either, I have been suggesting ways to improve substantially enough to compete.
Understood but I don’t believe there is a successful middle- ground approach to be had here. That is what they have been basically attempting for a decade.
Good morning, Halo faithful.
Are we still waiting to exhale?
Just Breathe!!
We’re still in good mode!