Angels GM Perry Minasian has been the most active executive in Major League Baseball this off season. He’s acquired more players than any other GM but he needs to do more. In this case, he has a great opportunity to turn the annual free agent and trading frenzy of the Winter Meetings into a game of chess by signing Austin Hays.
Hays entered the free agent pool after he was non-tendered by the Philadelphia Phillies last month. Philadelphia acquired the left fielder at the 2024 trade deadline and Austin was quite the disappointment in the City of Brotherly Love. A slash line of .256/.275/.397 is not what a team hopes for when they ship out two prospects. Instead of paying Hays an estimated $6.3 million, the Phillies cut him loose.
Looking further back, Hays put up a really pedestrian slash line of .255/.303/.396 on a season that started in Baltimore.
By any advanced measure, Hays put up dead bang average production last year. FanGraphs rated his offense as 2% below MLB average while OPS+ has him at 1% better than average. FanGraphs pegged him for 0.2 WAR while Baseball-Reference rate him -0.1. No matter how you slice it, that level of production did not match his projected salary.
However, in the three years prior to 2024, Hays put up an impressive .261/.313/.439 line that was good for 9% above league average by measure of OPS+ and total value of 8.1 WAR, or 2.7 WAR per season, per Baseball-Reference.
The cause of his lackluster 2024 is likely due to a kidney infection he fought all last summer. Doctors think the infection might have started due to something he ate. Serious kidney infections in are rare in healthy 29 year olds and Hays was cleared to resume playing baseball last September.
In short, Hays is a really solid bet to bounce back to being a 2-3 WAR player in 2025. And considering he turns 30 next July he could keep that pace going for a couple of years.
So how does signing Hays help Perry in the GM chess game?
Quite simply, Perry has a trade chip that compares very favorably to Austin Hays. For his career, Taylor Ward has been about 10% better offensively than MLB average. Ward put up 2.3 WAR last season and has averaged 2.5 WAR per season for the last three years. Both play left field and they were born a little over six months apart.
The presence of Austin Hays as a free agent hampers Perry’s ability to trade Ward for a top return. Why pay Ward’s projected $9.2 million salary and give up prospects when a team could just pay Hays and hope for a rebound?
Normally there isn’t quite as binary of an effect in a free market but when you look at this year’s crop of free agent outfielders, it is pretty bleak. Juan Soto will get huge money to play right field for somebody. Teoscar Hernandez is also shooting for a big contract and will cost an acquiring team a draft pick and international signing money; the latter is at an ultra premium as teams line up for Roki Sasaki. Get beyond those couple of names and it is hard to see a safe bet to help a team win.
There isn’t much immediate left field help on the trade front, either. Of the handful of outfielders listed as likely trade candidates, Taylor Ward is the safest bet to provide surplus value. He’s the one guy teams like the Mets and Dodgers would feel most comfortable penciling into a contending lineup.
By taking Austin Hays off the table Perry would basically be signaling his intention to trade Taylor Ward. However, he’d also be cutting teams leverage as there are no safe 2.5 WAR players on the free agent or trade markets. From Soto and Hernandez it is a steep cliff to Jess Winker, who had a good 4 months in Washington last year; the only 4 good months he’s had over the last three seasons.
The Angels have a ton of holes to fill throughout the organization. Plugging Hays into Ward’s spot is likely a lateral move for the 2024 Angels in production, but the return for Ward could really help the rebuild.
How about adding some pitching?

How about a third base prospect and a quality arm?

Keep in mind these don’t even take into account teams with deep farm systems that will miss out on Soto. The win-now Mets could dangle outfield stud Drew Gilbert. The Dodgers have Jackson Ferris in AA, perfectly on track to join the other youngsters on the Angels farm.
These are the types of trades that teams will consider once the trade market is their best avenue. When the free agent market is devoid of a truly comparably player it tips the supply/demand dynamic in favor of the team with a player to trade. As long as Hays floats around as an option, teams have no urgency to engage Perry in trade talks for Ward unless they think Hays is cooked.
So, if I’m Perry, the signing I make before the Winter Meetings is Austin Hays. Partially for the player, but partially to put myself in the best trading position possible. Once the Juan Soto signing is announced, my phone should start ringing. And if anybody has been in the business world it is a lot easier getting a favorable deal done when you are the one receiving the call rather than the one making it.
I like this idea. It’s a gamble, both on the trade market and on Hays, but it’s well thought out. I for one would do it.
We need more solid prospects. We don’t need 3 WAR when we are about 25 WAR away from contending.
I would dig a GM who makes this move. Even if it fails, because it can, I still dig a GM who rolls on these kinds of odds rather than just signing what ever FA may work for a pile of money with crossed fingers. Free Agents fail. We of all fan bases know that. It’s likely more than half of the even 50 grade prospects we manage to have will fail too. But I’d rather run with that than wonder how an experienced MLB guy will adjust to an extra 20M in the bank, the marine layer, and angels fan shit Ju Ju on a meh team. The kids are just more fun. Hays + a couple prospects who would crack our top 10? I’ll take that even if it’s only “floor not ceiling doesn’t stir my needle” type moves.
I actually think Hays will be fairly good next year. Sure, he’s a career 93 OPS+ guy against right handed pitching, but I think we can afford him and maybe another OF with extreme righty splits. Actually, we have him. Moniak. Moniak/Hays combine for a career 112 OPS+ if we play them into their platoon splits. Moniak, Hays, Trout, Adell plus a little Soler is a fairly potent OF. Hays, Moniak, Trout and Adell are also a pretty strong defensive OF group.
Hell yeah. Go for it.
I agree but I wouldn’t use the word potent for that outfield until proven otherwise. It would be adequate and potentially better than last year with Hays taking the LHP ABs from Moniak and the addition of Trout.
I’ll go ahead and use potent since I’m both aware of how weak total outfield offense actually is in the MLB and I have big dick energy and am not terrified of the idea something may be possibly good on this team WHILE dad… I mean Arte… still owns it.
Nice. Thanks. It at least gets us a fairly interchangeable outfield and nets us some more prospects.
It is enough “compete now” to make Arte happen but really is about the rebuild.
MLB is mulling over a “Golden batter rule.”
In short, it is a piece of crap rule that could allow a teams batter to bat twice in a row, if he makes out the first time and/or only the trailing team can call out it’s best hitter to hit out of order.
Stupid stuff like this makes Disney’s Angel cheerleaders idea look good.
Totally and completely ridiculous. Call it Banana Ball and change MLB to Major League Banana.
Only if you can get umpires that can do the splits in gear.
Wait – didn’t you already do one of these? 😂
I’ll add it was very enjoyable reading.
Thanks.
yes, but things have changed. had i waited until non-tender day to write this, I would have included it.