Great write up and analysis as usual Jeff and your final comments as always are much gentler than mine would be. Mickey looks like he should be better than he is and when he has hot streaks it gets you excited, but as stated below, he’s had lot’s of opportunities and he’s just never been able to be consistent. The challenge for him this year is that the Angels would like to look at both Lugo and Adams and that makes for a lot of OFs. If the DH is rotational and or if Ward is traded, there may be a spot for him. Otherwise, he may be the odd man out. If he could ever learn some plate discipline he might become a decent hitter. I’m surprised they have not had any success with him in that area. he has ability so he is worth keeping if you have a place to stash him. If you could combine Mickey and Nolan, you would have a pretty good baseball player.
The four types of employees that I stole from a book decades ago:
1) Produce results and share your values. – easy to promote.
2) Don’t produce results and don’t share your values – easier than most to fire.
3) Don’t produce but share your values – you WANT to save/coach them into success.
4) Produce but don’t share your values – cancers who will destroy your culture.
Moniak is clearly in the #3 column. Good guy who seems to work hard and really wants it but can’t figure it out. The problem is that he currently occupies a spot that could be filled by someone with a better shot at producing.
Mickey unfortunately is a below average MLB guy who can function as a fourth or fifth OF on the right team. The stats you posted are interesting. His great speed somehow translates into a below average base runner which is scary. Bat speed and overall athleticism defensively is really all he brings. He will but occasional HRs due to bat speed, but the consistency isn’t there. It’s a shame.
That said, I hope they keep him as a backup. But I don’t expect much more from him. He might 3 years from now wind up on the Marlins and somehow put up some stats. Yet, he basically is what he is.
Mickey’s had plenty of opportunities to showcase his abilities. The results indicate he’s just not that good.
The data does not lie: 856 MLB ABs, 293 Strikeouts, 41 walks.
If Mickey is getting more than 200 ABs during a season, your team is not very good.
Jury is still out but again he is young…only 26.
The youngster core of 5 or 6 take us to the W/S
What Do the Angels Have in Mickey Moniak?
Heading into this season, I wrote a piece about why Mickey Moniak should be the everyday center fielder for the Angels. At that time, Moniak was coming off a 2023 season in which he was about 10% better than the MLB average offensive performer while carrying an elite glove in centerfield. Several of his numbers screamed for regression, but I wanted to give him a year to prove what the former first overall pick in the draft could do.
Regression hit immediately and swiftly. Moniak’s free swinging ways continued to lead to big strikeout totals and a complete dearth of walks tanked his on base percentage. On June 4th he carried a dismal .161/.196/.234 slash line. But this was a year for evaluation and just like with Jo Adell and others, I was more concerned with how they finished the year than their overall yearly statistics.
In Moniak’s case, the full season statistics are pretty bad: .219/.266/.380 for an OPS+ 19% worse than league average and a wRC+ that was 21% below par.
What is notable is that Moniak improved both his walk rate (from 2.8% in 2023 to 5% in 2024) and strikeout rate (from 35% in 2023 to 27.3% in 2024). Just as Moniak benefitted from an inflated BABIP (batting average on balls in play) in 2023 (.397) his luck went the other way this year (.272). For perspecitve, the league average on balls put in play is about .300. A player with Moniak’s speed can reasonably be expected to exceed that slightly.
Taking a look at his baseballsavant.com page reveals no surprises. Mickey is talented with bat speed and sprint speed that make scouts drool and fans dream. He also has no plate discipline and chases and whiffs far too often.
I did say I was more concerned with how the youngsters finished the season than their overall numbers. Like Adell, Moniak played better over the last couple of months of the season but didn’t blow anybody away. In fact, Adell was significantly better over the same stretch. Here are the numbers from baseball-reference.com of Moniak from July 2nd to the end of the year.
52 strikeouts to 8 walks is an unsustainable ratio. A .743 OPS isn’t bad for a bench player, though, and it came with a .282 BABIP that is still below MLB average despite Mickey’s speed.
The key for value with Moniak is always going to be the glove. A fourth or fifth outfielder needs to be able to play a competent centerfield. And with word that Mike Trout might be moving off the position or at least DH’ing more often, there is a path to playing time for an elite glove with a mediocre bat.
Overall, Moniak was not elite with the glove in 2024 but most of his negative marks come from his 125 innings in right field. When placed in his natural centerfield, Moniak held his own and would have been worth 10 runs above average over the course of a full season.
So, after 418 plate appearances in 2024 do we know what the Angels have in Mickey Moniak? Yes: Tantalizing power and speed with a complete lack of plate discipline. A player who will depend on the highly volatile BABIP to determine if he is above or below average. And if you combine the previous two, that is basically what he is. If you look at the last two months, that is what he is. But with a huge swing and miss profile and a complete lack of walks, prolong slumps like the one he had over the first two months of 2024 are likely to happen.
I also noticed a trend of strikeouts after days off, which is troubling for a rotational type player. Mickey will always be prone to the K but in going through his game logs he is particularly bad in this regard when he’s gotten the previous day or more off.
Going into his age 27 season it is reasonable to expect Mickey to continue being the free swinger who strikes out far too often and puts too many pitcher’s pitches in play. He can play a good centerfield and pinch run for you, but he seems to need regular playing time to cut down on K’s. In short, he’s probably better suited to be in AAA and come up and play in the event of an injury. But he’s out of options so he needs to stay on the team or be exposed to waivers.
I think Mickey shows up to Tempe with an inside track on an MLB job but would not be surprised in the least of the Angels add an outfielder or if trade acquisition Matthew Lugo emerges to push Mickey onto the waiver wire. Given the blend of speed and glove, Moniak may get picked up. But given the overall bottom line results me might not.