Hello fellow CTPGers! As you know, I believe it is time for a change – preferably in the Organization starting at the top. But since that is apparently not going to happen, I am changing the look of the team substantially by trading away the “other” MVP allowing him to return to the land of cheesesteak and flyEaglesfly. I am not trying to win the World Series as I think that is nearly impossible particularly in a Division where there are three teams that are significantly better than the Halos. What I am doing is attempting to create a roster where there is leadership, a decent product on the field and an environment where the young players can learn and grow.
So here we go. In order to rosterbate responsibly, I used the salaries in either the MLBTR prediction piece or the FanGraphs prediction piece. With players where the bidding is expected to be highly competitive (such as Snell) I used the top estimate for both length of contract and AAV. That is why I chose not to include Snell as a target. It is also why I think Yamamoto makes little sense (I expect him to go way higher than the FanGraphs prediction and more in line with the 9/$225 prediction of the MLBTR piece). I also used the baseballtradevalues.com site to assist with the trade that I made.
$212.2 million minus $144.2 million equals $68 million to spend. So with that….away we go!
TROUT GOES HOME
Bye Mike. It was very nice knowing you – particularly from 2011 to 2020. But your MVPs and playing with a fellow MVP in Ohtani meant very little – except maybe to Arte’s bottom line. It is time to free you from your personal hell that is Anaheim and allow you to go back home with your nice family and your beloved Eagles.
According to the almighty trade calculator, Trout has almost no value unless the Angels eat a significant portion of his salary. The decision is made to do this in order to receive back some young talent in return.
The Trade
Trout has 7 years left on his contract at $37,116,667 per year. The Angels agree to eat $17,116,667 per year or a total of $119,816,669 over the remaining 7 years of the deal. This “saves” the Angels $140 million (i.e. $20 million per year).
Trout and Adell plus $119,816,669 over 7 years to Philadelphia for (1)Mick Abel, RHP (#45 of Top 100 prospects), (2) Justin Crawford, OF (#77 of Top 100 prospects) and Aidan Miller, 3B (#90 of Top 100 prospects). These are the #2-4 prospects in the Phillies system. Abel is expected in 2024, Crawford in 2026 and Miller in 2027.
Adell is flailing in the Angels system. I am no longer a believer and I think anyone who is is smoking hopium. He is given a chance to succeed in a better Organization who has already taken one of the Angels prospects (his buddy Marsh) and immediately turned him into a budding superstar. Marsh and Adell are reunited, Trout goes home and the Angels farm system is improved.
NOTE: For those of you ready to cast stones, I realize that Philadelphia does not need two outfielders at the MLB level but Adell would be sent to the minors to “work things out”. And Trout would fit into the outfield or at DH (probably both intermittently).
Oh, and it also gives me another $20 million to spend this offseason bringing my total budget to $88 million.
FREE AGENT SIGNINGS
I want to start this section with an overall philosophy that I want the kids to play in 2024. So, I have Neto, O’Hoppe, Moniak and Schanuel in my starting and (pretty much) every day lineup. So, I am looking to build depth and build up the pitching staff with some solid veterans who serve as role models for the young bucks.
Sign SP Jordan Montgomery 5 years/$140 million AAV of $28 million
Montgomery throws strikes and has excellent control. He stays healthy barely missing a start over the last 4 years approaching 200 innings (i.e. durability which is something the Angels sorely need). He does not walk many and ZIPS projects him to match Snell’s production going forward. He is 31 years old so I do not worry about giving him 5 years. I chose him over Snell because I think Snell is going to require 7 years and 200 million-plus. I like Montgomery and I think he becomes the #1 of this staff.
Sign Lourdes Gurriel, Jr., OF 3 years/$40 million AAV of $13.5 million
Gurriel plays decent defense and has a plus throwing arm. He is also relatively durable averaging 140 games per year over the last 3 seasons. He will be turning 30 in 2024 so he is young. He has good power and would fit in nicely into the Angels outfield. He is a .750-.800 OPS type player who is durable and would lead by example.
Sign Jorge Soler, OF, 3 years/$45 million AAV of $15 million
Soler completes the rebuild of the outfield. He hit 36 HRs this year and takes plenty of walks. He cut his strikeout percentage to 25%. He hits the ball hard and in the air – a run producer who fits into the middle of this re-vamped lineup. His downside is relatively average to below average defense – but I think he would fit in nicely in RF.
Sign Gio Urshela, IF, 2 years/$20million AAV of $10 million
Gio becomes a depth piece who can play 3B, SS, 1B and 2B and was productive until he was injured. He generate almost 1 WAR in 62 games. He plays hard and leads by example. I like him a lot and think he fits into the team as a role model and as someone who can play all over the infield.
Sign Tim Anderson, IF, 1 year/$8 million AAV of $8 million
I have always admired Tim Anderson as a player. And he brings fire to the dugout. He had an off year in 2023. He just turned 30 and has plenty to prove for his next contract. He would be a great depth piece and lead the youngsters both by example and by his energy.
Sign Jordan Hicks, Relief Pitcher, 3 years/$45 million AAV of $15 million
Hicks is probably the best right hand reliever in baseball and throws HEAT. He and Ben Joyce would be really fun to watch in the 8th and 9th innings. He appeared in 65 games in ’23 with a 3.29 ERA, 3.22 FIP and 3.36 xFIP striking out over 28% of the batters he faced. And he allowed only 9 barrels on the 168 batted balls he allowed (5.4%) with an average exit velocity of only 86.7 mph (remarkable given the speed of his pitches). That means he misses bats and even when his pitches are hit, they are not hit square. His downside is too many walks but that was better in ’23. He is a weapon and the Angels would have two fireballers out of the ‘pen in he and Joyce.
Conclusion on Acquisitions
Both the Outfield and Infield gained depth and have very solid players who can both produce and lead the young kids. The starting rotation gained a solid starter in Montgomery and the ‘Pen was improved with Hicks. Total spent was $89 million which was $1 million over budget but that can be dealt with.
STARTING LINEUP AND DEPTH FOR ’23
Outfielders: Ward, Gurriel, Soler, Moniak
Infielders: Rendon (DH mostly), Neto, Drury, Schanuel, Urshela, Fletcher, Anderson
Catchers: O’Hoppe, Stassi
Starting pitching: Montgomery, Detmers, Sandoval, Canning, Anderson, Silseth
Relief pitching: Wantz, Estevez, Herget, Soriano, Bachman, Webb, Suarez, Barria, Joyce, Hicks
OVERALL CONCLUSION
2024 becomes a transition year to move on from the Trout and Ohtani eras that yielded nothing. It is a year for the young kids to gain experience among some talented veterans. The team becomes younger and tougher. And I think there are more role models on this squad than in the last 5 years. Will this team win a wildcard – unlikely. But it could achieve .500 and be fun to watch. And those 8th and 9th innings with a lead would be a trip with Joyce and Hicks touching 100+ over two innings.
In my opinion it is time for major change. This accomplishes it, begins to rebuild the Farm and gives us all some exciting players to watch and cheer for.
Photo credit: Rex Fregosi
This was a great piece that starts the new way to look at the future. Sure glad to see some reality and anti stupid (Doing the same thing but expecting the same results) with rebuilding in the team.
Can’t disagree with the big picture. I don’t particularly like Soler and Gurriel but that’s more because they are not my “type” (I’d have preferred more defense oriented types), but that’s just that.
Whoever said we might wind up with Wendle… well that will not happen now.
Also, Barria is a Guardian now.
How do you get the trade sim to take into account that a team is eating some of the contract? I wanted to trade Trout but the sim just laughed at me trying to get any prospects with value. If I’d tried to get three of a teams top 10 prospects for him my laptop would have melted….
Also, if Trout’s trade value is basically negative 70 wouldn’t eating half his salary just make him negative 35? Why do we get top 100 prospects? I’m asking because I want to do that….
Ah, never mind…. stupid had the screen at 130% and didn’t see the add cash….
I didn’t schedule yours yet. You might be able to go back and mess around with pretend money if you want.
Gitcho – $1 million in guaranteed money = 1 point in the trade simulator
So we can buy 3 of Philly’s top prospects for $50 million?
Where do we sign up for that deal?
Ha! You know that would be great if it worked that way. That’s how they do it in the English Premier League. Looking forward to reading your IIWPM Cowboy!
Well Don’t hold your breath. Of course all this will be sucked up into the ether next week when Ohtani announces his decision and Perry responds with a bunch of signings and trades of over the hill and broken down players coming off a career year.
I am very interested to read everyone else’s IIWPM piece before the Winter meetings and see who got the closest to the pin award this off season. You never know you could be the leader in the clubhouse right now.
By the way – buying young players happens all the time in the English premier league.
Yes but they have fair play rules that teams routinely try to obfuscate for a competitive advantage
Arte would likely need to eat closer to $200 million to make that Philly trade. But I also sent Trout to Philly in a piece so I get where you’re coming from.
Moniak is the only outfielder I’d want to see in CF but Soler makes a good DH.
Fun read.
The Almighty trade simulator approved the trade with the numbers I used because Trout’s value was up to +50 and those prospects in combination added up to slightly less than 50. That said, the trade simulator is not always right, but it is the guideline for this exercise.
Cool. I should’ve played with it before commenting. I wonder if Trout’s value changed a bit in the last couple of months.
It is well thought out, but I can’t do it. So I’m adding a what-if scenario to the season: Let’s assume either Trout or Rendon has a bounce-back first half – we likely still flounder behind the Astros and Rangers anyhow – but we can potentially move the hot one (and others) when they aren’t so value-depleted.
I fully understand an emotional connection to Trout.
The salary on both Trout and Rendon are the hangup for making them tradable per the trade simulator. That simulator values Trout as a player at around 178 but then the salary is -248 for a net approximately -70 trade value.
The simulator equates each million in guaranteed salary to approximately -1 in value. So to get Trout to a zero the Angels would have to pay $70 million of his salary or $10 million per year (approximately).
By the Angels paying approximately $120 million over 7 years it brings his value to approximately +50 which nets the prospects per the simulator. In other words, if Trout had a $20 million per year salary, according to the trade simulator, his value would be approximately +50.
No amount of great playing is going to change the guaranteed salary part of the equation. So while I understand your thought process about rejuvenation in 2024, it’s not going to make much difference in trade value from a dollars and cents standpoint.
I would totally do this. I would strip this team down to nothing, then use my money to sign all the trade bait I can for July. Then trade those players. If our Top 30 Prospects are always so horrible and useless then fck it, let’s get 20 new ones in four months baby.
I’ll enjoy watching CtPG guy watch a true cheap team for a couple years till the Shamwow Dynasty starts.
It absolutely would change their numbers. Seager is only two years younger than Trout but has an extra year on his contract is trading at a +54. Rendon only has three years left on his deal (that would mean 2 1/2 left). If either one was hot and stayed healthy the whole season – the delta would change substantially. Of course, that’s a big if but they are both capable of getting hot. I just think we are near our low right now and might be able to get more value on a spike. Feels like a fire sale here.
Good post, it was really fun for my lunchtime read.
It really makes me think, as it is very different from some of the other IIWPMs.
Arte aside, even I am not sure about trading away the face of the team in Trout, but at the same time I do believe that the Phillies would be glad to get him, no matter what the trade simulator thing says.
Glad that I could provide some enjoyment for you during your lunchtime. It was fun to write.
Great job and out of the box effort. I love your first paragraph which is the real conundrum. Under the current circumstances, there just isn’t any path to winning in 2024 and there are too many unknowns regarding our current roster.
You are right, Arte won’t go for it. And I was also wondering what happened to Rengifo.
I would prefer that they focused on getting better for the future and avoided 30 year old players for now. I would trade Drury if they don’t intend to extend him and if I was to trade Trout, I believe you would get a better deal from the Dodgers.
Great effort.
Thank you. It was a fun exercise. I recommend it to everyone as it connects you to the process.
So according to the incontestable Trade Simulator, The proposed net Trout trade value without the cash comes out to be a net -118.10 for the Phillies . Do you really think $120 Million over 7 years is worth that much in trade value to make this a worthwhile trade for The Phightin Phils?
I’m really curious what a million dollars in cash considerations is worth in the MLB trade world.
Oh BTW hate to pick fly shit out of the pepper but Jo Adell ain’t going to the minors anytime soon to “work things out”. hes out of options. he would have to clear waivers first.
I thought of that with regard to Adell, and wasn’t sure whether he was out of options or not. That said, this is hypothetical so hypothetically, they ask him to do a stint in the Philadelphia, minor leagues, with the ultimate intention of bringing him up – he hypothetically says yes.
You have to play with the trades on the Simulator to get it to work with the cash. It’s not easy to do but cash has a tremendous value on the Simulator. For example, without the salary consideration. Trout has a value in the 180 range. His salary has a huge negative value (-250ish) bringing his overall trade value to a huge negative number (-68).
However, the amount of cash I am proposing would bring Trout’s salary down to $20 million per year for Philadelphia. At that point, his value is around 45, which is well within the range to acquire those three players.
Another way to look at is is the salary is a -248 value. Trout is owed $260 million. So it’s basically -1 value per $1 million.
So if the Angels pay $119 million that’s approximately 120 points of value which brings Trout’s value to a +50 (approximately)
$1 million = 1 point
In my burn it down piece Trout + half his salary = Painter, a near MLB ready pitcher who profiles as a 2 or 3.
I love you guys who are angry at the trade simulator. An algorithm shit on some stupid idea you had years ago and you just can’t let it go.
I was wondering about the Adell options thing…..
Did Luis Rengifo spontaneously combust in this scenario?
I meant Rengifo under infielders. Good catch.
Forgetting Rengifo might allow you to use the money from Tim Anderson on relief pitching (where I think we need more help). Not as optimistic as you are that 2023 was just a down year for him.
I’m with you most of the way. But seeing the bullpen roster made me take a step back. It needs an upgrade.
Barria is actually gone. Maybe that is an upgrade.
Oh that’s right. So I have two mistakes. One is listing Barria in the bullpen or even on the roster. The other is listing Anderson and failing to include Rengifo as an infielder.
These are very hard. I almost published mine saying I would hire Aaron Nola when he had already re-signed with the Phillies.
I scheduled it before the news came out about Kolarek.
Yes they are for sure
I rarely criticize Perry because he has to do this with real money and real players. What can one say when he whiffs on a guy like Urshela? Who on Earth breaks their pelvis running the bases? Etc.
Urshela was bad luck. Loup and Tepera were not.
Agreed and he is dealing with multiple pressures from above. He has a very tough job.
Why? Upgrade that bullpen and…. POOF! this isn’t a rebuild year anymore!?
As always, these are fun and thought provoking. Regarding this one, I’m not a fan of the Trout trade. First, any trade that starts with he has no value and we have to eat $17 million a year to remove our franchise player and a future HOF guy seems to put dollars and hope over sense. Throwing in Adell who is a potential piece here doesn’t help. Doing so for three prospects expected in 2024, 2026, and 2027 is like burning a hole in your carpet today with the idea that in a few years you will remodel. You still have to live there now.
In terms of other moves, you are paying top of the line money at the sky high time of the market for Montgomery — a player who has never been with that and just had his career moment. Sure, one can argue he might have found “it” and will be successful. Even so, you cannot pay too for the market for a guy like that.
Hicks is Mr. Injury. You can going three years on a guy that’s hurt and if his prior team believed in him, he wouldn’t be available. No thanks.
Urshela is fine. He of course was hurt most of last year. The DBacks OF is fine too. He’s top of the market price for an uncertain future.
Soler is all the swing and miss slugger the Angels have had too much of already. He’s been on multiple teams. Not enthused.
I like playing the kids. And if they can sign Anderson for $8 million, that’s easy. Yes. And hope. He gets hurt too though.
I’d prefer quality contact hitters like Merrifeld or Kiermeier as lineup adds. If you want a swing and miss slugger, give Adell some ABs.
I look forward to reading your IIWPM.
Trout has zero trade value (actually negative value) at his salary. So the Angels are going to have to pay a good portion of the salary if they are going to trade him.
As you can see, it is my opinion they need to move completely away from the past and essentially rebuild while still staying somewhat competitive. Disagreement on that subject is understandable, particularly when it involves a player like Trout, who is so popular in the fanbase.
Noted. It’s not just the popularity though. It’s brutal to sell assets at the bottom of the market and buy assets at the top. I have seen where the Angels are pursuing Snell. He will never be paid more than he would get now. A year ago, he wouldn’t have gotten paid anything close. Not two years ago either. It isn’t a good signing to get Snell now. I feel the same with Montgomery. If he is really worth it, his old team(s) will be all in to get him. So the Angels shouldn’t win the bidding war either.
Old adage: buy low, sell high.
In baseball that wise adage is satisfied by having a fantastic farm system, where you get six years of a player at a very low price and then allow him to go elsewhere where another team pays him a lot of money. Unfortunately, the Angels farm system is terrible so if they are going to get players, they are going to have to overpay for them.
The first part of your paragraph makes me immediately think of the A’s and Tampa.
They seem to suddenly get really good every few years with a bunch of young guys I never heard of before, and then the year before they get expensive, they trade them away for a whole bunch of top prospects and repeat the cycle. It doesn’t always work of course, but it seemed to work often.
The A’s using this model make the playoffs for 1-3 seasons every decada or so, but haven’t been to the WS since the 80s. Is that a model we want to work with?
So since we were last relevant in 2009, we had 1 great year in 2014 and the As have been to the playoffs 6 times. Weren’t we all just clamoring this summer and willing to trade away everything just for the chance to make the playoffs?
However, no, I didn’t say that is the model we should follow. But it sure was better than the model we have followed for the past decade, as shown by the stats.
I’d like to work with the A’s and Tampa Bay model and supplement it with the money that this team has. I think a hybrid would be really interesting
This one’s pretty busy, especially about the free agents. It may take people a while to digest all the moves.
I haven’t even gotten to the free agents. I’m still on the trade! $120 million to watch Trout end his career with another team…. ouch. Buying three top 100 prospects for $120 million and losing your “star”, give away guy, and one of the many reasons why people buy tickets. This is a big ask from your owner to do and I don’t see that happening.
I’ll get to the FA signings in a bit
Remember that money is over 7 seasons. It’s a dividing line. Get rid of the past and look to the future.
Also – I agree Arte is unlikely to do it – but he SHOULD do it if he had a baseball and not a marketing perspective.
Well, I am still on the ‘Trout’s injuries are not the same from year to year (like David Wright’s back)’ and ‘Trout had 3 WAR value in only 82 games just this season’ to argue that he isn’t a washed up veteran that needs to be moved on from.
However, given your premises, this is an interesting read – so thank you for the ideas.
I don’t think Trout is washed up at all. In fact, my thought process is that he deserves a better situation than he has in Anaheim. The Angels don’t need Trout because they are not going anywhere. They need to rebuild and focus on young players and rebuilding the Org and minor league depth. This team is not going to the playoffs anytime soon. Trout deserves a shot at a ring. I think Philadelphia would be a lot of fun for him, going back home and being able to compete for a World Series championship. That is what I mean by freeing him from the hell that is iAnaheim. I wish him only the best and hope that he gets a chance to win a World Series that is not going to happen in Anaheim.