If I were Perry Minasian, Part V

Hello fellow CTPGers! As you know, I believe it is time for a change – preferably in the Organization starting at the top. But since that is apparently not going to happen, I am changing the look of the team substantially by trading away the “other” MVP allowing him to return to the land of cheesesteak and flyEaglesfly. I am not trying to win the World Series as I think that is nearly impossible particularly in a Division where there are three teams that are significantly better than the Halos. What I am doing is attempting to create a roster where there is leadership, a decent product on the field and an environment where the young players can learn and grow.

So here we go. In order to rosterbate responsibly, I used the salaries in either the MLBTR prediction piece or the FanGraphs prediction piece. With players where the bidding is expected to be highly competitive (such as Snell) I used the top estimate for both length of contract and AAV. That is why I chose not to include Snell as a target. It is also why I think Yamamoto makes little sense (I expect him to go way higher than the FanGraphs prediction and more in line with the 9/$225 prediction of the MLBTR piece). I also used the baseballtradevalues.com site to assist with the trade that I made.

$212.2 million minus $144.2 million equals $68 million to spend. So with that….away we go!

TROUT GOES HOME

Bye Mike. It was very nice knowing you – particularly from 2011 to 2020. But your MVPs and playing with a fellow MVP in Ohtani meant very little – except maybe to Arte’s bottom line. It is time to free you from your personal hell that is Anaheim and allow you to go back home with your nice family and your beloved Eagles.

According to the almighty trade calculator, Trout has almost no value unless the Angels eat a significant portion of his salary. The decision is made to do this in order to receive back some young talent in return.

The Trade

Trout has 7 years left on his contract at $37,116,667 per year. The Angels agree to eat $17,116,667 per year or a total of $119,816,669 over the remaining 7 years of the deal. This “saves” the Angels $140 million (i.e. $20 million per year).

Trout and Adell plus $119,816,669 over 7 years to Philadelphia for (1)Mick Abel, RHP (#45 of Top 100 prospects), (2) Justin Crawford, OF (#77 of Top 100 prospects) and Aidan Miller, 3B (#90 of Top 100 prospects). These are the #2-4 prospects in the Phillies system. Abel is expected in 2024, Crawford in 2026 and Miller in 2027.

Adell is flailing in the Angels system. I am no longer a believer and I think anyone who is is smoking hopium. He is given a chance to succeed in a better Organization who has already taken one of the Angels prospects (his buddy Marsh) and immediately turned him into a budding superstar. Marsh and Adell are reunited, Trout goes home and the Angels farm system is improved.

NOTE: For those of you ready to cast stones, I realize that Philadelphia does not need two outfielders at the MLB level but Adell would be sent to the minors to “work things out”. And Trout would fit into the outfield or at DH (probably both intermittently).

Oh, and it also gives me another $20 million to spend this offseason bringing my total budget to $88 million.

FREE AGENT SIGNINGS

I want to start this section with an overall philosophy that I want the kids to play in 2024. So, I have Neto, O’Hoppe, Moniak and Schanuel in my starting and (pretty much) every day lineup. So, I am looking to build depth and build up the pitching staff with some solid veterans who serve as role models for the young bucks.

Sign SP Jordan Montgomery 5 years/$140 million AAV of $28 million

Montgomery throws strikes and has excellent control. He stays healthy barely missing a start over the last 4 years approaching 200 innings (i.e. durability which is something the Angels sorely need). He does not walk many and ZIPS projects him to match Snell’s production going forward. He is 31 years old so I do not worry about giving him 5 years. I chose him over Snell because I think Snell is going to require 7 years and 200 million-plus. I like Montgomery and I think he becomes the #1 of this staff.

Sign Lourdes Gurriel, Jr., OF 3 years/$40 million AAV of $13.5 million

Gurriel plays decent defense and has a plus throwing arm. He is also relatively durable averaging 140 games per year over the last 3 seasons. He will be turning 30 in 2024 so he is young. He has good power and would fit in nicely into the Angels outfield. He is a .750-.800 OPS type player who is durable and would lead by example.

Sign Jorge Soler, OF, 3 years/$45 million AAV of $15 million

Soler completes the rebuild of the outfield. He hit 36 HRs this year and takes plenty of walks. He cut his strikeout percentage to 25%. He hits the ball hard and in the air – a run producer who fits into the middle of this re-vamped lineup. His downside is relatively average to below average defense – but I think he would fit in nicely in RF.

Sign Gio Urshela, IF, 2 years/$20million AAV of $10 million

Gio becomes a depth piece who can play 3B, SS, 1B and 2B and was productive until he was injured. He generate almost 1 WAR in 62 games. He plays hard and leads by example. I like him a lot and think he fits into the team as a role model and as someone who can play all over the infield.

Sign Tim Anderson, IF, 1 year/$8 million AAV of $8 million

I have always admired Tim Anderson as a player. And he brings fire to the dugout. He had an off year in 2023. He just turned 30 and has plenty to prove for his next contract. He would be a great depth piece and lead the youngsters both by example and by his energy.

Sign Jordan Hicks, Relief Pitcher, 3 years/$45 million AAV of $15 million

Hicks is probably the best right hand reliever in baseball and throws HEAT. He and Ben Joyce would be really fun to watch in the 8th and 9th innings. He appeared in 65 games in ’23 with a 3.29 ERA, 3.22 FIP and 3.36 xFIP striking out over 28% of the batters he faced. And he allowed only 9 barrels on the 168 batted balls he allowed (5.4%) with an average exit velocity of only 86.7 mph (remarkable given the speed of his pitches). That means he misses bats and even when his pitches are hit, they are not hit square. His downside is too many walks but that was better in ’23. He is a weapon and the Angels would have two fireballers out of the ‘pen in he and Joyce.

Conclusion on Acquisitions

Both the Outfield and Infield gained depth and have very solid players who can both produce and lead the young kids. The starting rotation gained a solid starter in Montgomery and the ‘Pen was improved with Hicks. Total spent was $89 million which was $1 million over budget but that can be dealt with.

STARTING LINEUP AND DEPTH FOR ’23

Outfielders: Ward, Gurriel, Soler, Moniak

Infielders: Rendon (DH mostly), Neto, Drury, Schanuel, Urshela, Fletcher, Anderson

Catchers: O’Hoppe, Stassi

Starting pitching: Montgomery, Detmers, Sandoval, Canning, Anderson, Silseth

Relief pitching: Wantz, Estevez, Herget, Soriano, Bachman, Webb, Suarez, Barria, Joyce, Hicks

OVERALL CONCLUSION

2024 becomes a transition year to move on from the Trout and Ohtani eras that yielded nothing. It is a year for the young kids to gain experience among some talented veterans. The team becomes younger and tougher. And I think there are more role models on this squad than in the last 5 years. Will this team win a wildcard – unlikely. But it could achieve .500 and be fun to watch. And those 8th and 9th innings with a lead would be a trip with Joyce and Hicks touching 100+ over two innings.

In my opinion it is time for major change. This accomplishes it, begins to rebuild the Farm and gives us all some exciting players to watch and cheer for.

Photo credit: Rex Fregosi

53 Comments
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GrandpaBaseball
Legend
2 months ago

This was a great piece that starts the new way to look at the future. Sure glad to see some reality and anti stupid (Doing the same thing but expecting the same results) with rebuilding in the team.

h27kim
Trusted Member
2 months ago

Can’t disagree with the big picture. I don’t particularly like Soler and Gurriel but that’s more because they are not my “type” (I’d have preferred more defense oriented types), but that’s just that.

2GA2Join
Super Member
2 months ago

Whoever said we might wind up with Wendle… well that will not happen now.

Also, Barria is a Guardian now.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend

How do you get the trade sim to take into account that a team is eating some of the contract? I wanted to trade Trout but the sim just laughed at me trying to get any prospects with value. If I’d tried to get three of a teams top 10 prospects for him my laptop would have melted….

Also, if Trout’s trade value is basically negative 70 wouldn’t eating half his salary just make him negative 35? Why do we get top 100 prospects? I’m asking because I want to do that….

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend

Ah, never mind…. stupid had the screen at 130% and didn’t see the add cash….

Charles Sutton
Editor
Super Member
2 months ago

I didn’t schedule yours yet. You might be able to go back and mess around with pretend money if you want.

Cowboy26
Legend
2 months ago
Reply to  Fansince1971

So we can buy 3 of Philly’s top prospects for $50 million?

Where do we sign up for that deal?

Cowboy26
Legend
2 months ago
Reply to  Fansince1971

Well Don’t hold your breath. Of course all this will be sucked up into the ether next week when Ohtani announces his decision and Perry responds with a bunch of signings and trades of over the hill and broken down players coming off a career year.
I am very interested to read everyone else’s IIWPM piece before the Winter meetings and see who got the closest to the pin award this off season. You never know you could be the leader in the clubhouse right now.

Cowboy26
Legend
2 months ago
Reply to  Fansince1971

Yes but they have fair play rules that teams routinely try to obfuscate for a competitive advantage

Jeff Joiner
Editor
Legend
2 months ago

Arte would likely need to eat closer to $200 million to make that Philly trade. But I also sent Trout to Philly in a piece so I get where you’re coming from.

Moniak is the only outfielder I’d want to see in CF but Soler makes a good DH.

Fun read.

Jeff Joiner
Editor
Legend
2 months ago
Reply to  Fansince1971

Cool. I should’ve played with it before commenting. I wonder if Trout’s value changed a bit in the last couple of months.

HalosFanForLife
Trusted Member
2 months ago

It is well thought out, but I can’t do it. So I’m adding a what-if scenario to the season: Let’s assume either Trout or Rendon has a bounce-back first half – we likely still flounder behind the Astros and Rangers anyhow – but we can potentially move the hot one (and others) when they aren’t so value-depleted.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend
Reply to  Fansince1971

I would totally do this. I would strip this team down to nothing, then use my money to sign all the trade bait I can for July. Then trade those players. If our Top 30 Prospects are always so horrible and useless then fck it, let’s get 20 new ones in four months baby.

I’ll enjoy watching CtPG guy watch a true cheap team for a couple years till the Shamwow Dynasty starts.

HalosFanForLife
Trusted Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Fansince1971

It absolutely would change their numbers. Seager is only two years younger than Trout but has an extra year on his contract is trading at a +54. Rendon only has three years left on his deal (that would mean 2 1/2 left). If either one was hot and stayed healthy the whole season – the delta would change substantially. Of course, that’s a big if but they are both capable of getting hot. I just think we are near our low right now and might be able to get more value on a spike. Feels like a fire sale here.

2GA2Join
Super Member
2 months ago

Good post, it was really fun for my lunchtime read.
It really makes me think, as it is very different from some of the other IIWPMs.

Arte aside, even I am not sure about trading away the face of the team in Trout, but at the same time I do believe that the Phillies would be glad to get him, no matter what the trade simulator thing says.

Roy Hobbs
Trusted Member
2 months ago

Great job and out of the box effort. I love your first paragraph which is the real conundrum. Under the current circumstances, there just isn’t any path to winning in 2024 and there are too many unknowns regarding our current roster.

You are right, Arte won’t go for it. And I was also wondering what happened to Rengifo.

I would prefer that they focused on getting better for the future and avoided 30 year old players for now. I would trade Drury if they don’t intend to extend him and if I was to trade Trout, I believe you would get a better deal from the Dodgers.

Great effort.

Last edited 2 months ago by Roy Hobbs
Cowboy26
Legend
2 months ago

So according to the incontestable Trade Simulator, The proposed net Trout trade value without the cash comes out to be a net -118.10 for the Phillies . Do you really think $120 Million over 7 years is worth that much in trade value to make this a worthwhile trade for The Phightin Phils?

I’m really curious what a million dollars in cash considerations is worth in the MLB trade world.

Oh BTW hate to pick fly shit out of the pepper but Jo Adell ain’t going to the minors anytime soon to “work things out”. hes out of options. he would have to clear waivers first.

Jeff Joiner
Editor
Legend
2 months ago
Reply to  Cowboy26

$1 million = 1 point

In my burn it down piece Trout + half his salary = Painter, a near MLB ready pitcher who profiles as a 2 or 3.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend
Reply to  Cowboy26

I love you guys who are angry at the trade simulator. An algorithm shit on some stupid idea you had years ago and you just can’t let it go.

I was wondering about the Adell options thing…..

BannedInLA
Super Member
2 months ago

Did Luis Rengifo spontaneously combust in this scenario?

matthiasstephan
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Fansince1971

Forgetting Rengifo might allow you to use the money from Tim Anderson on relief pitching (where I think we need more help). Not as optimistic as you are that 2023 was just a down year for him.

angelslogic
Super Member
2 months ago

I’m with you most of the way. But seeing the bullpen roster made me take a step back. It needs an upgrade.

Charles Sutton
Editor
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  angelslogic

Barria is actually gone. Maybe that is an upgrade.

Charles Sutton
Editor
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Fansince1971

These are very hard. I almost published mine saying I would hire Aaron Nola when he had already re-signed with the Phillies.

I scheduled it before the news came out about Kolarek.

Last edited 2 months ago by Charles Sutton
Charles Sutton
Editor
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Fansince1971

I rarely criticize Perry because he has to do this with real money and real players. What can one say when he whiffs on a guy like Urshela? Who on Earth breaks their pelvis running the bases? Etc.

Angelstan
Trusted Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Charles Sutton

Urshela was bad luck. Loup and Tepera were not.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend
Reply to  angelslogic

Why? Upgrade that bullpen and…. POOF! this isn’t a rebuild year anymore!?

Angelstan
Trusted Member
2 months ago

As always, these are fun and thought provoking. Regarding this one, I’m not a fan of the Trout trade. First, any trade that starts with he has no value and we have to eat $17 million a year to remove our franchise player and a future HOF guy seems to put dollars and hope over sense. Throwing in Adell who is a potential piece here doesn’t help. Doing so for three prospects expected in 2024, 2026, and 2027 is like burning a hole in your carpet today with the idea that in a few years you will remodel. You still have to live there now.

In terms of other moves, you are paying top of the line money at the sky high time of the market for Montgomery — a player who has never been with that and just had his career moment. Sure, one can argue he might have found “it” and will be successful. Even so, you cannot pay too for the market for a guy like that.

Hicks is Mr. Injury. You can going three years on a guy that’s hurt and if his prior team believed in him, he wouldn’t be available. No thanks.

Urshela is fine. He of course was hurt most of last year. The DBacks OF is fine too. He’s top of the market price for an uncertain future.

Soler is all the swing and miss slugger the Angels have had too much of already. He’s been on multiple teams. Not enthused.

I like playing the kids. And if they can sign Anderson for $8 million, that’s easy. Yes. And hope. He gets hurt too though.

I’d prefer quality contact hitters like Merrifeld or Kiermeier as lineup adds. If you want a swing and miss slugger, give Adell some ABs.

Angelstan
Trusted Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Fansince1971

Noted. It’s not just the popularity though. It’s brutal to sell assets at the bottom of the market and buy assets at the top. I have seen where the Angels are pursuing Snell. He will never be paid more than he would get now. A year ago, he wouldn’t have gotten paid anything close. Not two years ago either. It isn’t a good signing to get Snell now. I feel the same with Montgomery. If he is really worth it, his old team(s) will be all in to get him. So the Angels shouldn’t win the bidding war either.

Old adage: buy low, sell high.

2GA2Join
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Fansince1971

The first part of your paragraph makes me immediately think of the A’s and Tampa.
They seem to suddenly get really good every few years with a bunch of young guys I never heard of before, and then the year before they get expensive, they trade them away for a whole bunch of top prospects and repeat the cycle. It doesn’t always work of course, but it seemed to work often.

matthiasstephan
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  2GA2Join

The A’s using this model make the playoffs for 1-3 seasons every decada or so, but haven’t been to the WS since the 80s. Is that a model we want to work with?

2GA2Join
Super Member
2 months ago

So since we were last relevant in 2009, we had 1 great year in 2014 and the As have been to the playoffs 6 times. Weren’t we all just clamoring this summer and willing to trade away everything just for the chance to make the playoffs?

However, no, I didn’t say that is the model we should follow. But it sure was better than the model we have followed for the past decade, as shown by the stats.

Charles Sutton
Editor
Super Member
2 months ago

This one’s pretty busy, especially about the free agents. It may take people a while to digest all the moves.

Biggiswrth
Trusted Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Charles Sutton

I haven’t even gotten to the free agents. I’m still on the trade! $120 million to watch Trout end his career with another team…. ouch. Buying three top 100 prospects for $120 million and losing your “star”, give away guy, and one of the many reasons why people buy tickets. This is a big ask from your owner to do and I don’t see that happening.
I’ll get to the FA signings in a bit

matthiasstephan
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Fansince1971

Well, I am still on the ‘Trout’s injuries are not the same from year to year (like David Wright’s back)’ and ‘Trout had 3 WAR value in only 82 games just this season’ to argue that he isn’t a washed up veteran that needs to be moved on from.

However, given your premises, this is an interesting read – so thank you for the ideas.