Angels lose to Mariners 3-2

September Baseball is about fighting for the playoffs or playing spoiler. With the rosters now limited to 28 instead of 40, it is all you can do. For yet another year in a row, the Angels are playing spoiler as that is all they can do. No Ohtani, or Trout, not even Rengifo or Silseth. A bullpen game on a Wednesday afternoon in Seattle.

But hey, it means looking at the future right? Neto is back, so is O’Hoppe, and Nolan Schanuel is allowed to play most of the remaining games to be a rookie still. So, as we look towards 2024 and trying not to moan, we can at least root to make Mariners fans nervous a bit more. Or tanking for the lottery. Yay…

Highlighted Recap

Brett Phillips scored the first run of the game with a home run in the 3rd.

1-0 Angels

That annoying Julio Rodriguez tied the game up in the bottom half of the 3rd with a double.

Boo

Drury got the lead back with a double of his own in the 4th.

2-1 Angels

And would you look at that, Nolan got on base yet again. His 20th in a row to start a career!

CONGRATS!

Mariners tie the game though at a play at the plate.

So close

And then the Mariners took the lead off a bad play by Drury.

3-2 Mariners

Angels couldn’t muster up any more runs and lose the game and the series.

Upcoming

Angels have a day off tomorrow. Will Ohtani be ready by this weekend? Who knows at this point.

34 Comments
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YOUknowulovetheIE
Trusted Member
6 months ago

I had no idea suarez was back and then I see he got the L.. lmao

DFA his ass already

Cowboy26
Legend
6 months ago

He actually pitched well except for one HBP. This one was on Herget.

YOUknowulovetheIE
Trusted Member
6 months ago
Reply to  Cowboy26

No such thing as a suarez pitching good

Fansince1971
Legend
6 months ago

So hypothetically if the Angels end up 75-87 they would have won 23 more games than they would be predicted to win with a team full of replacement level players. I believe WAR is based on a team of replacement level players winning 52 games.

An entire team of replacement level players would cost an owner $25-$40m per season ($720k-$1 million per player)

So Arte paid an extra approximately $200 million for 23 wins. That comes out to approximately $9m per win.

By comparison the Rays are on pace to win 98 games or 46 games above what would be expected with replacement level players. The Rays payroll is approximately $74m or approximately $40 million over a replacement level roster.

Thus, the Rays are paying around $900,000 per win.

Arte is paying almost 10x more for a win than the Rays. Does that say anything about how this team is run?

Cowboy26
Legend
6 months ago
Reply to  Fansince1971

Source?

Fansince1971
Legend
6 months ago
Reply to  Cowboy26

Bill James and Glenn DuPaul

“In 2012, Glenn DuPaul conducted a regression analysis comparing the cumulative rWAR of five randomly selected teams per season (from 1996 to 2011) against those teams’ realized win totals for those seasons. He found that the two were highly correlated, with a correlation coefficient of 0.91, and that 83% of the variance in wins was explained by fWAR (R2=0.83).[20] The standard deviation was 2.91 wins. The regression equation was:

Wins=52.7+0.97xfWAR

which was close to the expected equation:

Wins=52+fWAR

in which a team of replacement-level players is expected to have a .320 winning percentage, or 52 wins in a 162-game season.”

Cowboy26
Legend
6 months ago
Reply to  Fansince1971

So if a team had all league average players they would only win 52 games ? That makes no sense

Fansince1971
Legend
6 months ago
Reply to  Cowboy26

Replacement level. That is the whole basis of WAR. Replacement level is different than league average.

“Replacement level is simply the level of production you could get from a player that would cost you nothing but the league minimum salary to acquire. Minor league free agents, quad-A players, you get the idea. The concept is pretty tidy. These are the players that are freely available and if five of your MLB level players came down with the flu, you could go out and acquire replacement level players without really giving up anything you value other than their union mandated payday.”

That’s different than league average. A league average player would generate 1-2 WAR.

And yes – a team full of replacement level players would be expected to win on an approximately.320 basis.

Last edited 6 months ago by Fansince1971
Cowboy26
Legend
6 months ago
Reply to  Fansince1971

So it’s a AAAA scrub?

Then what is WAR good for?

Fansince1971
Legend
6 months ago
Reply to  Cowboy26

Softball question – absolutely nothing! Say it again.

And yes a cheap AAAA scrub. How many games better than that.

James
Trusted Member
6 months ago

Closer than I thought and the 5th inning was the bad one. Next I guess 🤷‍♂️

Eric_in_Portland
Legend
6 months ago
Reply to  James

The 5th, as you predicted in the game thread

James
Trusted Member
6 months ago

I went out to bowl a couple games solo not wanting to see a blowout happen. Turns out it was a close game.

Twebur
Legend
6 months ago
Reply to  James

1 win, 1 close loss against their Ace, 1 blowout loss with Sandoval (A known Tanker)
Delicate balance between Tanking and wanting to beat the evil M’s.

Not bad for a team that might have 3 of the worst players in MLB playing everyday, Adams, Paris, and Phillips.
A team that quit on the season a month ago. With a roster of miss-fit-toys that appear to be playing out the season just to get in their daily Cardio.

Senator_John_Blutarsky
Legend
6 months ago

“Frank the Tank” approves of today’s outcome.

comment image

red floyd
Legend
6 months ago

red floyd

5 months ago

After last night? My prediction is 0-162

Not a bad prediction after all.

Charles Sutton
Editor
Super Member
6 months ago

Here is the Predictions Post for those guys who were asking about it.
(Groan)

Last edited 6 months ago by Charles Sutton
Brent
Super Member
6 months ago
Reply to  Charles Sutton

How many games will the Angels win in 2023?
More than last season (definitely going to be wrong here)

Will the Angels make the playoffs in 2023?
No (correct)

Will an Angel win MVP? If so, which one?
No (wrong, Ohtani will be winning this)

Will an Angel receive Rookie of the Year votes?
votes? Sure. Win it…. eh (maybe?)

Will an Angel win Comeback Player of the Year?
No (Obvs not Rendon)

Who plays shortstop the most often for the 2023 Angels?
Rengifo (not even sure where to check this stat)

Who closes the most games for the Angels in 2023?
Herget (lol)

Are the Angels buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?
Buyers (got that right)

Who are your division winners and Wild Card teams?
Don’t care about the other teams to look it up

Which two teams play in the Fall Classic and who wins?
Padres and someone else, the someone else team wins. (lololol)

Charles Sutton
Editor
Super Member
6 months ago
Reply to  Brent

For SS, it looks like it was
Neto 69 games
Velazquez 39 games
Rengifo 37 games
Fletcher 17 games
Urshela 9 games

I doubt if there was anybody who appeared at short in more than 69 games so far.

tanana40
Super Member
6 months ago

Nothing to see here, move on…… 🙂

Fansince1971
Legend
6 months ago

JHW – pretty impressive!!

Eric_in_Portland
Legend
6 months ago
Reply to  Charles Sutton

the gist of my prediction

“The offense looks good which is why I think we’ll win as many as 79. We are, however, a couple of injuries away from being worse than last year.”

Brent
Super Member
6 months ago

Nailed it.

red floyd
Legend
6 months ago
Reply to  Brent

Except for the “couple of injuries”. I don’t consider 8 out of 9 in the opening day starting lineup a “couple”.

Eric_in_Portland
Legend
6 months ago
Reply to  red floyd

So we’re doing well!

But seriously folks, the best prediction came from Jack Frost, who accurately called our August collapse.

Twebur
Legend
6 months ago

He always predicts a collapse.

And he’s always right.

trAdition

steelgolf
Super Member
6 months ago
Reply to  Charles Sutton

I had predicted between 88 – 92
Wins based on “strong starting pitching and depth”. Yeeesh, missed that one, by a lot!

Twebur
Legend
6 months ago
Reply to  steelgolf

I think I was in the 90-win club……but I’m a mouth breather.

2024, 69-91 put it on the board.

Eric_in_Portland
Legend
6 months ago

magic number is 15. 15 games left

Fansince1971
Legend
6 months ago

Mmmm doesn’t work that way but I think you know that.

halofansince1978
Super Member
6 months ago

Team Tank rolls on to a loss!!