Well, the off season is upon us and the big question is what will we do with Ohtani?
I think just about everyone likes Ohtani and would love to have him be an Angel forever if we just lived on a magic island with nothing else affecting that situation.
Another popular belief seems to be that, since we don’t know who the new owners will be, we should probably assume that this magic island exists, we will find it, and Ohtani will be extended while we also spend a large amount of money getting Trout and Ohtani “the help they need”.
This of course, in pure CtPG/HH fashion, totally ignores whether Ohtani wants to stay here and will sign a contract.
Then there is the Demandachamp position that says we should keep him even if he won’t re-sign, go “all in” and win all the glory, then he will want to stay and we will be able to pay him whatever he wants because glory dollars.
As far as I can tell the fallback for these guys is that we can trade him mid-season if the team doesn’t look like it’s gonna get tons of glory and we will get two to three controllable MLB players and several top 100 prospects or until also something good happens.
Which weds nicely with the camp that believes we should head into the next season, offer an extension (again, we just assume he wants to talk contract during the season since we don’t know he won’t and also magic) and then trade him for tons of talent mid-season if he’s not interested.
These two camps like to get together and make lots of babies with high sloping foreheads and small wide set eyes that hate looking at trade simulators because trade simulators don’t take magic into account.
Howling at the edges of the firelight these two camps frolic around is “YOU DON’T TRADE BADE ROOT! FULL STOP!” guy. He is only wearing a loincloth made from the skins of animals he caught in the Santa Ana riverbed.
You also have the guys who think we should trade him because he wants to leave because of all the evil Arte puts into the world (Doomerz) and people who just don’t see how a team that isn’t the Dodgers or Yankees can pay three guys 100+ M a year and still have other good players on the squad (People who can do simple math).
Some of these fellas quietly believe in magic islands as well and like to bring up “taking on bad contracts to win, then pulling back payroll once the farm gets good like the Doyers did.” which only requires them to avoid seeing that, when it comes to the post season results investment should bring, the Dodgers are barely better than the Twins over said period of time and have never pared back payroll despite having a good farm. Not to mention the Angels org doesn’t make close to the money the DoYanks do and Newownerz will probably want to make money.
All of these guys at least recognize that it may sadly make sense that we need to let Ohtani go away so that we don’t need to pay him. But many of these people also feel that you don’t trade Bade Root unless you are getting 9 WAR worth of league minimum players and 72 top 100 prospects.
Then you have the people who can do math AND use an online trade simulator.
I think a lot of them, like me, are stuck between a rock and a hard place. My inner child just wants to have Ohtani. This is why, if they keep him, and especially if they extend him, I will be happy. BUT, my brain that understands adult things realizes that it is probably a bad idea to pay Ohtani what he is worth today for the next ten years. In fact it is probably not even a good idea to pay him 30M this year just to watch him walk away in October…. Or 20M and then trade him in July.
And that Leads to looking at what we can get for him in a trade. I did that for my version of a plan for “GM” to theoretically get our payroll down below 100M. Now, I think a partial tear down is a stupid idea, so I got it down to the mid 50s. But either way, Ohtani had to go because he has trade value, though a lot less than he did before he got paid.
I looked at trading him to ANY team I could see having SOME even vaguely real reason to trade for him. If you click on the names you can see either a scouting report or a bref page for these guys. If you angrily click here you can see how this really is what Ohtani is worth and then try to do better than these trades. Here’s what I found….
Blue Jays: Danny Jansen, Ricky Tiedeman, Nate Pearson.
Astros: Cristian Javier, Forest Whitley
Cardinals: Jordan Montgomary, Alec Burleson, Jonathan Mejia, Matt Liboratore, Mike McGreevy
Rays: Jeff Springs, Carson Williams, Mason Montgomery, Cole Wilcox, Willy Vasquez
Yankees: Harrison Bader, Oswaldo Pereza, Will Warren, Drew Thorpe, Antonio Gomez
Dodgers: Bobby Miller, Andy Pages and that’s an overpay.
Giants: Thairo Estrada, Austin Slater, Aeverson Arteaga, Casey Schmidt, Carson Whisenhunt
Red Sox: Ceddanne Rafeala, Bryan Mata, Alex Verdugo, Tanner Houck, Miguel Bleis,
Mets: Joey Lucchesi, Kevin Parada, Alex Ramirez
Cubs: Jordan Wicks, Cristian Hernandez, Pete Crow Armstrong
Padres: Hae Seong Kim, Dylan Lesko, Bobby Snelling, Samuel Zavala, Eguy Rosario, Jairo Iriarte
Braves: Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver, Jared Shuster, Kyle Muller, Bryce Elder, Braden Shewmake
Mariners: Luis Castillo, Emerson Hancock, Dylan Moore, Gabe Gonzalez
Now, as you can see, there are a few ways to go here. Some teams are in a position to trade some fairly solid talent to get Ohtani because he is still a major roster upgrade and they are pushing for the glory. These teams could (not sure if their GMs want to) pay Ohtani long term. The Mariners, for example, trade us a great pitcher and a pile of solid prospects for a better pitcher and huge offensive upgrade that can push them into solid contention. Castillo is getting paid already too, which lowers his value and makes him someone we can get along with some prospects. The Padres, Yankees, Mets and Braves also kind of fall into this “bump up to super team” status that retaining Ohtani would bring.
The Cardinals are on that list, but also qualify as a team that would trade a heavy load of mixed level talent to WIN NEXT YEAR but may not retain him. The Rays could, in theory, boldly get Ohtani in a push to snag their first WS win and get a stadium while the Yankees and Red Sox are weak. That’s how I’d sell it to them. The Blue Jays are kind of in the same boat. They need to win before they have to pay everyone.
The Astros and Dodgers are in the “pay solid value for solid upgrade” zone but they aren’t desperate tier. Either one could pay Ohtani long term to be a centerpiece.
Then you have the interesting large market teams who are kind of washed up but that could build quickly around Ohtani and have the money and smart FOs to do it. The Cubs, Red Sox and Giants are all in a state of shuffle, but could benefit from having a splashy icon on the team and have the ability to rebuild fast while paying Shohei. What they have to offer is a bit spotty though and I’m not sure what they will give up when planning a rebuild but those trades above are the value we could get from their orgs.
So that’s the strait poop value of an Ohtani trade right now. That value will go down as soon as the season starts and will continue to drop until August 1st 2023.
Now, I hear you sputtering outrage CtPG guy whose ability to express strong opinions dwarfs his ability to look shit up on Google. I also value Ohtani more than this, but ask yourself, are the POBOEIEIOs of the Cardinals, Rays, Yankees, Dodgers etc stupid? How much extra do you think they are willing to pay for feelz? You can mooo about Ohtani’s value all you want but these guys all have a number for that called WAR and it’s 9…. Last year.
Sure, there could be a bidding war, but how many teams do you really think will even be able to compete to keep Ohtani? How many will pay a premium for a rental? It’s not a lot of teams. So while I do think there is a chance we get a little extra in a trade from the right team, I don’t think the sims are WAY off. Ohtani is worth 52 points right now…. I think we can maybe get 60 points of value from the right team if they really want Ohtani and undervalue a couple prospects we want.
What camp are you in? What do you think we can realistically (somewhat) expect for Ohtani in trade?
NO. “AH REEFUZZ TO ARSEPT ANYTHING BUT SEVERAL MLB READY TALONS AHN ALZO AR DOZEN TOP TEN PROSPCETZ CAUSE SO GOOO!” isn’t a real answer. Tell us HOW you think a trade might actually work.
Here’s that trade simulator. Feel free to give it a shot.
i live on that magic island.
we’re gonna sign a SS, P, and OF and they all will have career years. So will Trout and Ohtani who are in their primes and we just take the AL Pennant 2023.
On the trade proposals, pretty much i’d take any of those teams offers at a 50% of offer in August and just roll with Paul Bunyan till then
but that’s not happening on my island because Steve Ballmer has Shohei inked for half a billion for 10 yrs by July.
Man, my island sucks. On my island the wounded and unwary are just mercilessly hunted and eaten by coconut craps. Lame.
IT’s hard to look at but likely I guess Ohtani will be traded before the deadline next year. It should work that Trout and Ohtani are given something to win but the mismanagement of the Angels has made it so that the two most incredible players of the last ten years have very little chance of making it to the WS even though they both play on the same team.
I also fear a curse, but I can think like an adult also.
Ummm, it doesn’t take “magic island” or unicorns.
Just the ability to read.
The Angels aren’t trading Ohtani. Perry has said that repeatedly and he said it again recently :
Shohei Ohtani will not be traded, says Angels GM Perry Minasian (mlb.com)
If you think he is just posturing use logic; if they were going to trade him the time to do it would have been last year when the value was higher to a potential buyer.
No unicorns or fairy dust needed. The Angels aren’t trading Ohtani.
Deal with it all you baseball Ebenezer Scrooge’s.
“Bah Humbug” !!!
Favorite of mine that I’ve come up with:
Cardinals get: Ohtani
Angels get: Brendan Donovan, Liberatore, and Jordan Montgomery
Donovan is an absolute stud who locks down an infield spot and pushes Rengifo into the utility role. Montgomery locks down the middle of the rotation and Liberatore goes to Rocket City to get fixed.
With Arenado opting into his contract and Gorman on the MLB roster, the Cardinals have more stud infielders than spots available. Ohtani and Montgomery take each others places in the rotation.
I’m seriously considering this for my off season piece but you guys will probably roast me after today’s announcement.
I always look forward to your off-season analysis- but just don’t see any point until the sale is complete. Arte is in control which means nada is going to happen (except maybe minor deals) until the sale occurs.
Still, my morning constitutional appreciates content so I’ll look forward to it.
Well there’s work to be done and we, as a staff, have come up with ground rules o think are reasonable.
Considering the sale is likely months from completion, we will work with what we expect to be something similar to reality.
$180 million? Kind of thing?
Man, with the Angels Office of Arte Activities you have to wonder if they have had productive talks with a new owner who has plans for a productive roster that includes Shohei (good) or Arte has just decided that he’s doing a thing the way the thing will be done (bad) and we end up watching him sign elsewhere and get a #34 pick.
Interesting Jeff. I don’t know the players extremely well, but it sounds like the following: Angels get an above average infielder, a number 3 starter and a guy they will never repair who goes to the minors. I don’t see that as being enough for one of the best talents ever who might re-sign with the team that trades for him. I may be breaking the “rules” but I would like to see a legit LF, a high quality arm, and multiple plus prospects. Angels would need to turn this deal into a big haul. Otherwise they should just hold onto Ohtani and see what they can get at the all-star break next year if they aren’t in contention again.
Minasian just put an end to all this fun:
That’s Arte speaking through Minasian.
That is Arte speaking through Perry on November 7th.
Not surprising. If Arte was allowing them to trade Ohtani, it would have happened in July. All the news was that he personally pulled him off the market so I’m not sure why he would be back on it now that we know he’s selling the team.
There was a time we assumed maybe he wanted major leaguers. Now its clear he wants another owner to have to bite the bullet.
I just don’t think he’s worried about bullet biting. If he holds onto Ohtani and then Ohtani walks three months after Arte sells the team it’s not like Newownerz will catch most of the heck. Arte walks away with the blame mad cash and never has to look at another Angels related thing again either way and besides, has he seemd afraid of fan rash thus far?
If we’re really unlucky this is all just to make a small turd more money this year and maybe bump up the team’s sticker price but then Shohei leaves for the Yankees anyway.
Okay, I know they would never do this trade, but …….. The Rangers get Ohtani and his 52 points, The Angels get …….. Acuna SS at 14.5, Cueva SS at 2.4, Leiter SP at 24.8, and Rocker SP at 10.1 = 51.8
Not bad. Just not sure if the Rangers will take on Seager, Semien and Ohtani so early in a rebuild…. but maybe they would? I’d take that prospect pile.
As far as the prospects we can get back for Shohei it’s not TOO bad. It’s just that it’s stupid to think we’re getting Ronald Acuna and Spencer Strider plus three prospects for Ohtani. But we can “rebuild the farm” much faster with a return for him.
I don’t think The Rangers would trade both Leiter and Rocker, and then I threw in two short stops that they will also probably balk at, maybe you get one and an outfield prospect. But the numbers did work.
I can’t get the sim to work, but what’s the value of Acosta? I think I would rather have him than Acuna.
Acosta is 3.6
Oh sheesh, didnt know it was too far off. Acuna it is. Lol
You could always take Acosta and then look for some outfielders or relief pitchers to make up the difference.
I like magic islands
Me too. Especially ones with pirates who burst into song instead of raping and pillaging me.
The Athletic and MLB trade rumors are both reporting Perry said no trades for Ohtani during the offseason.
Well, maybe the folks they are talking about selling to want him on the team? And maybe they intend to pay him and Trout and Rendon and another ace pitcher and a closer and an outfielder and some depth pieces? And maybe they also intend to keep doing that for a long time instead of ditching young players when they hit arb?
If so, hell yeah. Count me in.
From MLB Trade rumors….
“Reports…..indicated owner Arte Moreno directed his front office not to deal the two-time All-Star.“
Trading Ohtani is something for new management to consider and therefore will not occur this off-season.. Arte will not do it even if it makes good baseball sense.
Hopefully this means we’re closer to a sale than I think.
More likely Arte’s just being stupid. The good news is “all in guy” will get his way and I will shit all over him if we don’t win the glory and then extend Ohtani….
cause I don’t know if you’ve heard, but this is a must win season.
The “what would a trade for Ohtani berf?” things I have seen online make me happy because they are huge overpays, but maybe they will set the tone for what actually happens if we trade him. That would be nice.
But if we get stuck with what I could find above I think I’d like the return from the Cardinals. Only problem is that they are basically a free agent starter signing and O’Neil returning to form away from not needing Ohtani so unless they are in “damn the prospects” mode trying to win it all they probably wouldn’t trade for Shohei.
The Braves and Padres deals aren’t too bad either. Man, the Braves just have an endless pile of pitching prospects… maybe we’d have to get some of them, then trade some pitching prospects away to a team that’ll give us positional prospects….
Dude – between this one and the other, your fingers must be aching. Thanks for all the content.
I personally am not going to engage in any more analysis until new ownership rears it’s head. But I enjoy reading this stuff so thanks for doing it!