The Best Trade Return for Ohtani That I Could Find:

Well, the off season is upon us and the big question is what will we do with Ohtani?

I think just about everyone likes Ohtani and would love to have him be an Angel forever if we just lived on a magic island with nothing else affecting that situation.

Another popular belief seems to be that, since we don’t know who the new owners will be, we should probably assume that this magic island exists, we will find it, and Ohtani will be extended while we also spend a large amount of money getting Trout and Ohtani “the help they need”.

This of course, in pure CtPG/HH fashion, totally ignores whether Ohtani wants to stay here and will sign a contract.

Then there is the Demandachamp position that says we should keep him even if he won’t re-sign, go “all in” and win all the glory, then he will want to stay and we will be able to pay him whatever he wants because glory dollars.

As far as I can tell the fallback for these guys is that we can trade him mid-season if the team doesn’t look like it’s gonna get tons of glory and we will get two to three controllable MLB players and several top 100 prospects or until also something good happens.

Which weds nicely with the camp that believes we should head into the next season, offer an extension (again, we just assume he wants to talk contract during the season since we don’t know he won’t and also magic) and then trade him for tons of talent mid-season if he’s not interested.

These two camps like to get together and make lots of babies with high sloping foreheads and small wide set eyes that hate looking at trade simulators because trade simulators don’t take magic into account.

Howling at the edges of the firelight these two camps frolic around is “YOU DON’T TRADE BADE ROOT! FULL STOP!” guy. He is only wearing a loincloth made from the skins of animals he caught in the Santa Ana riverbed.  

You also have the guys who think we should trade him because he wants to leave because of all the evil Arte puts into the world (Doomerz) and people who just don’t see how a team that isn’t the Dodgers or Yankees can pay three guys 100+ M a year and still have other good players on the squad (People who can do simple math). 

Some of these fellas quietly believe in magic islands as well and like to bring up “taking on bad contracts to win, then pulling back payroll once the farm gets good like the Doyers did.” which only requires them to avoid seeing that, when it comes to the post season results investment should bring, the Dodgers are barely better than the Twins over said period of time and have never pared back payroll despite having a good farm. Not to mention the Angels org doesn’t make close to the money the DoYanks do and Newownerz will probably want to make money.

All of these guys at least recognize that it may sadly make sense that we need to let Ohtani go away so that we don’t need to pay him. But many of these people also feel that you don’t trade Bade Root unless you are getting 9 WAR worth of league minimum players and 72 top 100 prospects.

Then you have the people who can do math AND use an online trade simulator.

I think a lot of them, like me, are stuck between a rock and a hard place. My inner child just wants to have Ohtani. This is why, if they keep him, and especially if they extend him, I will be happy. BUT, my brain that understands adult things realizes that it is probably a bad idea to pay Ohtani what he is worth today for the next ten years. In fact it is probably not even a good idea to pay him 30M this year just to watch him walk away in October…. Or 20M and then trade him in July.

And that Leads to looking at what we can get for him in a trade. I did that for my version of a plan for “GM” to theoretically get our payroll down below 100M. Now, I think a partial tear down is a stupid idea, so I got it down to the mid 50s. But either way, Ohtani had to go because he has trade value, though a lot less than he did before he got paid.

I looked at trading him to ANY team I could see having SOME even vaguely real reason to trade for him. If you click on the names you can see either a scouting report or a bref page for these guys. If you angrily click here you can see how this really is what Ohtani is worth and then try to do better than these trades. Here’s what I found…. 

Ohtani trades:

Blue Jays: Danny Jansen, Ricky Tiedeman, Nate Pearson.

Astros: Cristian Javier, Forest Whitley

Cardinals: Jordan Montgomary,  Alec Burleson, Jonathan Mejia, Matt Liboratore, Mike McGreevy

Rays: Jeff Springs, Carson Williams, Mason Montgomery, Cole Wilcox, Willy Vasquez

Yankees: Harrison Bader, Oswaldo Pereza, Will Warren, Drew Thorpe, Antonio Gomez

Dodgers: Bobby Miller, Andy Pages and that’s an overpay.

Giants: Thairo Estrada, Austin Slater, Aeverson Arteaga, Casey Schmidt, Carson Whisenhunt

Red Sox: Ceddanne Rafeala, Bryan Mata, Alex Verdugo, Tanner Houck, Miguel Bleis, 

Mets: Joey Lucchesi, Kevin Parada, Alex Ramirez 

Cubs: Jordan Wicks, Cristian Hernandez, Pete Crow Armstrong

Padres: Hae Seong Kim, Dylan Lesko, Bobby Snelling, Samuel Zavala, Eguy Rosario, Jairo Iriarte

Braves: Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver, Jared Shuster, Kyle Muller, Bryce Elder, Braden Shewmake

Mariners: Luis Castillo, Emerson Hancock, Dylan Moore, Gabe Gonzalez

Now, as you can see, there are a few ways to go here. Some teams are in a position to trade some fairly solid talent to get Ohtani because he is still a major roster upgrade and they are pushing for the glory. These teams could (not sure if their GMs want to) pay Ohtani long term. The Mariners, for example, trade us a great pitcher and a pile of solid prospects for a better pitcher and huge offensive upgrade that can push them into solid contention. Castillo is getting paid already too, which lowers his value and makes him someone we can get along with some prospects. The Padres, Yankees, Mets and Braves also kind of fall into this “bump up to super team” status that retaining Ohtani would bring.

The Cardinals are on that list, but also qualify as a team that would trade a heavy load of mixed level talent to WIN NEXT YEAR but may not retain him. The Rays could, in theory, boldly get Ohtani in a push to snag their first WS win and get a stadium while the Yankees and Red Sox are weak. That’s how I’d sell it to them. The Blue Jays are kind of in the same boat. They need to win before they have to pay everyone.

The Astros and Dodgers are in the “pay solid value for solid upgrade” zone but they aren’t desperate tier. Either one could pay Ohtani long term to be a centerpiece. 

Then you have the interesting large market teams who are kind of washed up but that could build quickly around Ohtani and have the money and smart FOs to do it. The Cubs, Red Sox and Giants are all in a state of shuffle, but could benefit from having a splashy icon on the team and have the ability to rebuild fast while paying Shohei. What they have to offer is a bit spotty though and I’m not sure what they will give up when planning a rebuild but those trades above are the value we could get from their orgs.

So that’s the strait poop value of an Ohtani trade right now. That value will go down as soon as the season starts and will continue to drop until August 1st 2023.

Now, I hear you sputtering outrage CtPG guy whose ability to express strong opinions dwarfs his ability to look shit up on Google. I also value Ohtani more than this, but ask yourself, are the POBOEIEIOs of the Cardinals, Rays, Yankees, Dodgers etc stupid? How much extra do you think they are willing to pay for feelz? You can mooo about Ohtani’s value all you want but these guys all have a number for that called WAR and it’s 9…. Last year.

Sure, there could be a bidding war, but how many teams do you really think will even be able to compete to keep Ohtani? How many will pay a premium for a rental? It’s not a lot of teams. So  while I do think there is a chance we get a little extra in a trade from the right team, I don’t think the sims are WAY off. Ohtani is worth 52 points right now…. I think we can maybe get 60 points of value from the right team if they really want Ohtani and undervalue a couple prospects we want.

What camp are you in? What do you think we can realistically (somewhat) expect for Ohtani in trade?

NO. “AH REEFUZZ TO ARSEPT ANYTHING BUT SEVERAL MLB READY TALONS AHN ALZO AR DOZEN TOP TEN PROSPCETZ CAUSE SO GOOO!” isn’t a real answer. Tell us HOW you think a trade might actually work. 
Here’s that trade simulator. Feel free to give it a shot.