Welcome to the fifth installment of the If I were Perry Minasian series, where CtPG writers detail the transactions they would make for their desired Angels offseason.
In order to rosterbate responsibly, guidelines for this exercise are as follows:
- Angels end-of-year payroll for luxury tax purposes shall not exceed $200 million, giving the GM about $45 million to spend during the offseason. ($45,011,906)
- Factored into that projected payroll are arbitration projections from Cot’s. This shouldn’t deviate too much from MLBTR’s estimates, but we’ll use Cot’s figures simply for ease of use.
- When possible, use contract projections based on Fangraphs or MLBTR estimates, as experts from these outlets have a better pulse on the free agent landscape than most.
- Trades must be as realistic as possible. One popular tactic among baseball fans on the internet is offering a bunch of players you don’t like in exchange for some you do. In reality, that’s not how trades actually work, so that’s off limits. The Baseball Trade Values site can be a good resource for a sanity check often times, but each team values players differently and their wants/needs/tendencies should be taken into account, too.
My Objectives:
- Pitching. I really want Detmers and Canning starting the year in AAA as depth.
- Defense that plays to the strength of the pitching staff.
- Making a good offense a great one.
Non-Tender:
Junior Guerra is just too easy of a call. By letting him go I add an additional $1.3 million to my fantasy spending pool. Total budget is now $46.4 million.
I keep Phil “Goose” Gosselin, however. For $1.5 million he’ll make up the short end of a platoon at first base and provide Rendon some off days early in the year as he ramps back up from injury. Last year Walsh turned in a .170/.208/.357 line against lefties, slightly below his already bad career line. Goose, however, turned in a very respectable .275/.344/.352 line vs. southpaws and has a much better overall career slash line vs. lefties. For $1.5 million, that’s a keeper.
Get it out of the way:
Mike Trout is moving to left field. Similar to when his mentor Torii Hunter slid over so the younger, swifter Peter Bourjos could man center, it is time for Trout to change positions. Mike is bigger and stronger than he was when he took over center as a spry 20 year old. And he’s coming off a significant calf injury. Let Marsh run around in center.
Trades:
We need a pitcher who is both cost controlled and effective. The fourth guy on Cleveland’s staff, Cal Quantrill, fits that mold perfectly. We have athletic upside in spades, the Guardians have pitching. The price is steep but I send out Jo Adell, Kyren Paris, and Orlando Martinez to Cleveland for Quantrill. I’ve now added 4 years of control for a guy who pitched 149.2 innings of 155 ERA+ ball last year. This trade could make me look really bad in the future, but I need to win now.
I’ll address the shortstop position and start building a bullpen right from the gate. Young OF prospect Alexander Ramirez is shipped to the Reds for Kyle Farmer and Amir Garret. Farmer is superfluous on the Reds due to the emergence of young stud Barrero but comes with a really nice glove and three years of control. With a price of $2.2 million for 2021, he fits right into my scheme and budget.
Amir Garrett had a bad 2021 after really good 2019 and 2020 campaigns. At some point I’m going to have to gamble on a couple of relievers and I’ll hope getting the hard throwing lefty out of a hitter’s paradise can get better results. Garret is a non-tender candidate in a cost cutting Cincy but the trade ensures I snag him and know the price.
Net add: $4.4 million.
Free Agents:
This should come as zero surprise to anybody here. I start with my workhorse Marcus Stroman. Both durable and good, he’s a guy you can count on to take 30+ starts and be 30% or so above league average. For a pitching staff rated near the bottom in both total innings and run production, he’s a godsend. I’ll let him feed ground balls to Rendon/Farmer/Fletcher/Walsh all day.
4 years, $90 million. This is a midway point between Ben Clemens at FG and the average crowd sourcing. I go a bit above the average because I structure the deal as $15 million in 2022 followed by three years of $25 million. This frees up a little cash for an extra bullpen piece but is realistic.
Net add: $15 million with some impact down the line.
(Note: We all know the Angels signed Thor, so I’ll replace Stroman with Thor for the rotation down below.)
Speaking of ground balls, I want more of them. Let’s snag Kendall Graveman for 2 years $14 million and Aaron Loup for 2 years $12 million. These two have great ground ball rates and when on their game can be lights out. Graveman came back to earth a bit in Houston but still was a stud. All Loup does is throw 70 innings of 3 ERA ball year after year with little platoon splits and lots of ground balls.
Net add: $13 million
We definitely need catching help. While Max Stassi has been a stud, he’s also had surgery on both hips and outside of a short 2020 campaign has been pretty pedestrian against lefties. Manny Pina brings a good glove and had an OPS of .864 against lefties last year. Yes, a platoon behind the plate, but one with a good receiver every day and the chance to add to an already potent offense. 1 year $3 million
Net add: $3 million
I need a right fielder and I want one with more power than Adell has shown thus far. Joc Pederson has a career 123 wRC+ against right handed pitching. He’s OK in right field and able to take the strong side of a platoon. He can’t hit lefties to save his life, but Taylor Ward has a nice .265/.331/.414 career slash line against them. In the aggregate this should make for one solid offensive platoon with league average defense.
Net add: $9 million.
Rotation:
Shohei Ohtani, Marcus Stroman (Thor), Patrick Sandoval, Cal Quantrill, Jose Suarez, Jaime Barria
Starting Pitching depth:
Griffin Canning, Reid Detmers, Packy Naughton
Bullpen:
Kendall Graveman, Aaron Loup, Amir Garret, Michael Mayers, Austin Warren, Janson Junk, Jose Quijada
Lineup vs. RHP:
Marsh, CF, Trout LF, Ohtani DH, Walsh 1B, Rendon 3B, Stassi C, Pederson RF, Farmer SS, Fletcher 2B
Lineup vs. LHP
Fletcher 2B, Trout LF, Ohtani DH, Rendon 3B, Gosselin 1B, Pina C, Ward RF, Farmer SS, Marsh CF
Bench: Gosselin, Velasquez, Upton, Manny Pina, Taylor Ward
Conclusion:
I’ve added a solid 2 to a great staff in Stroman and a developing 2/3 guy with legitimate top of the rotation upside in Quantrill. The rotation is much more solid and youthful. Sandoval and Suarez are hitting what should be their primes. Canning and Detmers are in AAA developing and adding some depth. The Angels themselves appear to have chosen the upside of Thor to the stability of Stroman but I’ll leave my piece as is. This is what I would do.
The bullpen is admittedly thin but I had a budget. With any bounce back by Garret we should have a solid collection of arms for the last couple of innings. Mayers and Warren will be pushed to lower leverage situations with Junk and Quijada soaking up the lowest leverage innings. Really, this group needs some of the 2021 closers Perry drafted to emerge and/or some of the 4 relievers he sent to the AFL to come through if we’re going to have the bullpen be a positive.
Offensively and defensively this team is stacked. Right handed pitchers have to go through a gauntlet and they make up most of the league. The lineup vs. lefties might look light until you see the career splits of the guys I’ve subbed out. Oh, and each night the bench features guys who can pinch hit and stay in the game.
An Angel reunion thwarted, Jose Quintana inked with the Pirates. Schucks.
And J.B. too?
2nd rd 2009 MLB draft 14-7 in 2021 for Toronto Blue Jays
Just not by us 😠 😠 💩 😭
Who ever that is, maybe you can figure out a way to trade for him in that IIWPM we are all waiting to see from you.
Angels rumors: Los Angeles eyeing major move for Reds’ Luis Castillo (clutchpoints.com)
Woahhhhhh, please no Jo or Marsh. Take everyone else
To land Castillo we may need to give up both. The demand for him is hot.
Would likely definitely take at least one of them.
Per the Trade simulator it would take a package like Marsh, Adell and Bachman to equal the value of Castillo. Young, good, cost controlled pitching carries a heavy premium.
Yup. Almost makes me afraid that we might actually get him (at too high a price). Giving up both Adell and Marsh would suck in the immediate term since our OF situation is a bit limited.
the trade simulator has its problems. Nobody in his right mind would trade both Adell and Marsh in the same deal (plus Bachman!) for one pitcher with an ERA near 4.
The trade simulator is full of it. That is waaay too much. There is no way in hell Perry gives them both our OF’s and Bachman. I would not give them both Marsh and Adell let alone include Bachman. I think the Reds would accept signficantly less than that…
But we’ll see. Besides the two gaping holes that leaves in the OF would basically mean we are not improved overall. We can’t afford to give up more than one of Marsh/Adell.
Yeah, trade simulators are useless IMHO. I also don’t think we need to stress an overpay in trying to get cost controlled arms. We just need dependable arms with high-octane stuff.
I’m perfectly fine giving up Marsh, Bachman and something but should keep Adell as trading both for an arm, creates a gaping hole in the OF.
Reds could use a CF. Maybe we trade Marsh, Bachman, Paris and Suarez and go get Sonny Gray, Farmer and Garrett and sign Castellanos and f-the AL West. Something like that…
Mariners and Astros are beefing up. Let’s go on the offensive.
I tend to agree that the trade simulator is not the greatest resource. Unfortunately it’s kind of the only resource we have. I take the site with a grain of salt – but enjoy it as fun.
That said, one of the things the simulator makes clear , which I think is true, is how limited the angels are in terms of available and valuable trade pieces.
I think the only way we get Castillo is with prospects AND taking on Moose.
If so it’s a quick pass for me.
Yep. Castillo and Moose = Adell and Detmers per the simulator.
That’s a slight over pay on our part. You can balance it out by adding a few million in cash.
Jeff – is it me or does the trade simulator seem very low on Adell? He’s rated at a 12, which is basically minimal, while Marsh is high 40s. I would think Adell would be in the high 30s in terms of value.
I agree. The simulator agreed that it was a fair trade if we took on that much cash. If we don’t have to give up either Adell or Marsh, then would it be worth it? If Arte says ok you can have the money.
Kepp Jo. Offer Marsh, Stefanic and Detmers.
Billy Eppler 😆 😆 😆
WTF!!!
I just talked to Billy. He and Matt Swanson are both waiting with baited breath to see your IIWPM. I told them you’d fix everything.
Holy crap. A picture and funny GIF from 2002?
[Once again checks weather report from Hell]
There is no doubt in my mind, Billy Eppler’s Mets will improve next season. Billy has “significant” resources.
That’s the serious downside about this.
What if he actually does better with the Mets? What would that say about our owner and organization if two former GMs do better?
😭 😭 💩 With Arte we have a Imperial Co community college bookstore team vs Amazon’s bookstore.
Why would we care what Billy does with the Mets? . He’s in the national league now so unless he lures Ohtani away to the Big Apple in a couple of years I have no interest . Our farm system went from 29th to 21st under his 5 year reign. He’s inheriting the same mess in New York. Hopefully he’ll have better success.
We , on the other hand need to keep improving our farm system dramatically or we will continue to be a mediocre/losing team even with the 2 best players on the planet
Could we get any pitching help for Rendon or is he simply a sunk cost at this point?
Titanic level sunk cost.
I believe he’ll come back strong as he’s healthy.
Yep. It will be awesome having a #7 starter and Jack Mayfield at third base while we still pay Rendon most of his money.
While Rendon is mashing for whomever…
He’ll take his pick of former Angels GMs, go there for the major league minimum and perform exceptionally because…….
…..Arte sucks.
I know it’s an unpopular opinion here, but I’m not ready to give up on Rendon. He played relatively well in that weird 2020 season. 2021 sucked mostly due to injuries. I think he’s still a good offensive player and can play 140 games at his best.
It’s not an unpopular opinion. Marine Layer is pretty much the only guy pushing the “give up on Rendon” train up a hill of actual facts because a guy who looks like Rendon took his bike when he was a kid. 2002Heaven may be in on the idea too, but he eats paint chips.
…he eats lead paint chips.
Obviously it doesn’t matter what I think. I couldn’t care about Rendon one way or another except to the extent he helps our team, and at a reasonable price. He has done neither so far, which is my only beef with him. Now that he is on the bad side of 30 with a bad back I don’t see good things in the future. I sure hope I am wrong. That doesn’t prevent me from wishing we spent our money on a far more useful player. Sorry that some of you don’t like hearing that.
You are very fixated on a guy you don’t care much about one way or another.
Is his back hurt? He’s 31 so what, 29 when we signed him? How many FAs are younger than that? And you do realize we have to pay him even if we trade him most likely right?
Why not just relax and see what he does next year since you pretty much have no choice? Given the other options we had at the time, it just wasn’t that bad a signing. It’s not like we skipped Wheeler or Cole to sign the guy, we went after Bauer after he was on the books. You don’t make sense. If you can tell me who, on Dec12, 2019, you think we missed out on to sign Rendon I’d like to hear who. I bet you just have some candy assed “We would have had money for…. errr… pitching and better players…. and stuff.”
Which would then beg the question, which obviously good (not good in 2002Heaven hindsight) players did we not try to sign because we spent so much on Rendon? When has our FO even said anything about not spending because we have big ticket players already? If he’s hurt he’s hurt, that’s just crap luck. He was fine when we signed him. He’ll probably be fine this spring too.
So here is a quick – somewhat unrelated but somewhat related question. If you were Arte and you lucked into a player like Ohtani who just won the MVP and literally there are buildings in Japan decorated in Angel colors to celebrate – would you recognize the HUGE marketing opportunity of playoffs with Ohtani in them as an Angel. I mean it could be worth HUNDREDS of millions in advertising, jersey sales, ticket sales, worldwide credibility to and recognition of the Organization etc.
Do you think Arte is smart enough to realize that an extra $25 – $50 million invested in the team payroll could come back 10 fold based on Ohtani’s popularity across the globe in the next two years?
I think that is something Arte might understand as a businessman. If he does, I would expect payroll to go up and maybe WAY up once the CBA is finalized.
That makes so much sense!
Depends on if Arte and his squad are the marketing geniuses they are reported to be or not.
If anything, I think payroll is more likely to increase due to Arte finally having a solid figure on the cost of the ballpark and surrounding land.
Aside from that, a team with two legit perennial MVP candidates, who have now won 4 of the last 8 awards, has to spend on team needs to get to the playoffs. Anything less is the baseball equivalent of running the Angels like the clippers.
They are already the MLB version of the Clippers, buy expensive players but no team unity and the yearly losing records add up.
“ Do you think Arte is smart enough to realize that an extra $25 – $50 million invested in the team payroll could come back 10 fold based on Ohtani’s popularity across the globe in the next two years?”
No.
I hope you’re wrong
I think Arte and Co are smart enough to know this stuff, I mean, they didn’t go out and pay all that money for Shohei just because he’s the biggest Japanese guy they’ve ever seen. I think it depends on how much money he lost during Covid, how tied down his dollars are on Trout and the land deal (which is what I think the 2016/17 penny pinching was for.) Yeah, he’s a billionaire, but how much of that money is accessible as capital he can pay into payroll? No one knows because no teams ever tell us. For all we know that TV deal that some people like to rub on as proof that Arte has all the money to waste in the world was needed to keep the business solvent at times. He could have gone into debt to buy the stadium. We have no idea.
But yeah, I’m sure he realizes that Shohei + Post Season = Money because we all do and, in reality, most of us, if not all of us, are actually not as smart or as good at making money as Arte is.
I agree. But billionaires have hundreds of millions accessible pretty readily. The general thought is that 15% of net worth is expendable as pure risk. So – for someone worth 1 million – they can risk $150k. For someone like Arte who is worth $5+ billion, a risk of $650 million is within the goalposts.
So an extra $25 – $50 million is actually nothing to him. Its a rounding error. It’s the equivalent of $2,500-$5,000 to a millionaire. That’s a weekend in Vegas. And if it could potentially return 10x it’s well worth the risk.
I have to think he recognizes this with 2 MVP candidates on the team. Playoffs and a potential championship is a bet that could return huge profits. Would a guy worth $5 million bet $50,000 to potentially make another million? Absolutely!
Arte has a chance right now to bet an extra $25-$50 million to make $250 million plus. If he loses that’s an amount of money he won’t even notice. If he wins, it’s a windfall and his team ( which he bought for $165 million) is worth even more.
It’s a new brainer. Invest the relatively minimal money to win now and turn a $1.5 billion franchise into potentially a $2 billion-plus franchise.
My fear, because I do want him to spend at some point here, is that he’s not worth 5 Billion (where’d you get that?), if he is, most of that is assets like a team, and land, and a stadium, and that even if he has significant money left (which he probably does) how much of it is he saving away because he knows he has to build a stadium and a bunch of condo/stores in Southern California?
I mean, he’ll spend. I don’t think he’s gonna go McCourt. I just think he may not have the freedom to just go wild ever. For example, every internet genius and EastSpin clown is going to demand he extend Shohei now. He might wait till next year rather than pay more than he has to now…. unless he can get an extension signed where the immediate raise isn’t too steep.
Other problem is, he’s in business. We Angel fans may be as demanding as Dodger fans, but we generate about 2/3 the money they do. It will probably never make financial sense to carry a payroll above 200M for any length of time for this team and it may take an owner that’s a special kind of stupid with his money, perhaps an aging Moreno who wants to win before he dies, for that to change.
Angels are not giving up Adell unless they get a stud back. Quantrill would be nice, but with Adell attached the package is way too heavy.
I’m sure you wrote this more than 2 days ago, but Pina signed with the braves.
Quantrill is a stud IMO. When I posted this trade on the trade site I was told the Angels package was too light.
Opinions will vary, obviously.
i mean i get it, but Quantrill has 1/2 of a season of being an effective starter. If I’m trading Adell +++ I would need to be sure he didn’t have just 2 1/2 months of success
Great job! I think the key is to get quality depth as much as retaining key personnel from 2021. If D-cell is going to cost 3 quality bullpen arms, he may not be worth holding on to–especially if the budget space gets tight after Thor (although that was going to be the case no matter which highly regarded SP FA we got). The idea of Graveman does make me wonder, though. Converting middling or worse starters with high upside into relievers has been pretty productive and cost-effective for a lot of teams with budget issues–Davis, Miley, and now Graveman (And even ppl like Jose Mesa or K-Rod years ago). I wonder how many current FA SP’s are potential candidates for BP conversion and whether it’d be economically feasible to look into them more closely?
Interesting point. Bullpen guys generally have 1 excellent pitch and one above average pitch but lack enough variation to make it through a lineup multiple times.
I’d guess we’d start by identifying starters with bad overall numbers but good results on 1 or 2 pitches. I’d also look at results first time through the order vs. second.
Great job Jeff!
I must notice it looks like you didn’t even consider Raisel at all. I’m curious if you prepared this when the Angels offered him the QO or when he rejected it.
I never considered Raisel. I think the relief market is deep enough that we can snag 2-3 quality pieces for what it will cost to simply keep Raisel.
It would be awesome having an absolute hammer for the 9th inning. But getting to that 9th inning was our real challenge last year.
That is what Arte and his minions have operated on for 15 plus years, and we do not even get to the playoffs but once in a while. Need a stud closing, no wanna be’s.
Even with Thor instead of Stroman I like this. I was bummed when Pina signed with Atlanta, he seemed like good get. I dig the pen with Loup and Garrett as underrated additions. I’d take Kyle Farmer, though I’m not sure the Reds will trade him in real life. He’s cheap at an expensive position and they need their IF prospects to show something. They are also concerned about defense behind their up and coming pitching prospects like Greene and Lodolo. But hey, if we can get him, I like Farmer. Farm & Fletch…. a truly overlooked mid-infield.
I like it! Well thought out. Did not think of Quantrill. 26 year old, cost-controlled good pitching does not come cheaply. I think your package of players from the Angels might be slightly light but could be tweaked.
All in all a very good thought process.
P.S. – I want Stroman and Thor. 😃
I second that thought. Perry should bring back both his old draftees to Anaheim despite the fact that our second draft pick next year probably won’t be until the 10th round and we will have no money left for any resemblance of a
bullpen💪BarnBut all in all a great job Jeff. Well thought out and reasoned. I had a question though. Under the reality scenario of the Thor signing. How would you address the added $6 million that we will be paying between the 2022 Thor contract amount and your projected $15 million dollar 2022 salary for Stroman? Is is possible to come up with alternatives to bridge that gap or does Arte just needs to step up and helicopter in the extra cash?
Either Arte comes up with the cash or we go in house for backup catcher and maybe sign a lesser bullpen arm than Loup.