MLB Draft 2021: Consensus Rankings

Returning to an annual personal tradition I’ve held to since the 2014 draft, typically published at CtPG or at the old Halos Heaven website, here are this year’s “Consensus Draft Rankings”. This is my way of memorializing the “wisdom of crowds” among various scouts, scouting publications and prospect analysts going into the MLB Draft, and a way of providing a crib sheet to identify the next “best player available” (BPA) as the names are announced at the podium beginning 4pm Pacific, Sunday night.

Those who have followed my Draft commentary over the past decade know that I actually put little stock in “BPA”. If BPA was a science, and there was anything like true consensus among talent evaluators, one could create software that essentially does what I do here, and we could simply automate the draft. But there is no consensus – organizations have different models for evaluating risk, value and potential impact. Moreover, different teams have different developmental strengths, and a player fit for one system may not be for another. Think of how Cleveland develops pitchers; think of how the Angels develop (or don’t) prep athletes.

In short, there are tiers of talent and tiers of risk, and the best question you can answer is: “Given the top tier of players still on the board, given our organization’s needs and development tendencies, who of those left has the best chance to succeed in our system”? These Consensus Draft Rankings hopefully help answer part of that question.

A quick illustration of how difficult that assessment really is though! Since the 2017 (Adell/Canning) MLB Draft, only three players drafted from that class have made it to the MLB and put up 2+ bWAR. Only three! And of those three, they certainly must have been top-ten draft picks, reflective of the general consensus around “best player available” at the time? Well, nope. They are picks #13 (Trevor Rogers, 3.2 bWAR), #47 (Griffin Canning, 2.6 bWAR) and #282 (James Karinchak, 2.6 bWAR). 14 of the top 20 picks have no or negative WAR, and while some of that is due to age and the disruptions of the pandemic, that draft is four years in the rearview mirror, and the average college draftee matriculates in 2-3 years. So BPA? If it exists, no one knows how to do the math to get to it. It’s the new philosopher’s stone.

But here’s something close – your own fool’s gold, and like so many things on the Internets, it’s free! I’ve created a weighted average from 16 of the best talent rankings and mock drafts available, current up through yesterday. All the major scouting publications are represented along with the names you know from Fangraphs, Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN, the Athletic, BP, Prospects Live et al. My list ran to about 150, and I excluded names that didn’t appear on at least 4 top 100 lists. Here I include 80+ names, so folks can follow until the Angels select their third rounder at selection #80, on Monday afternoon.

As always, this is neither a prediction nor a mock draft – it’s a snapshot of what the experts might stack rank the available talent if forced to do so by committee. Have fun!


RankPlayerPositionSchoolAvg
1Marcelo MayerSSEastlake (CA) HS1.25
2Jack LeiterRHPVanderbilt3.00
3Jordan LawlarSSJesuit Prep (TX) HS4.00
4Henry DavisCLouisville4.31
5Kahlil WatsonSSWake Forest (NC)5.81
6Brady HouseSSWinder-Barrow (GA) HS5.81
7Kumar RockerRHPVanderbilt6.13
8Jackson JobeRHPHeritage Hall (OK) HS7.75
9Sal FrelickOFBoston College11.00
10Colton CowserOFSam Houston11.53
11Matt McLainSSUCLA11.87
12Ty MaddenRHPTexas12.64
13Benny MontgomeryOFRed Land (PA) HS13.81
14Harry FordCNorth Cobb (GA) HS15.40
15Jordan WicksLHPKansas State17.07
16Will TaylorOFDutch Fork (SC) HS17.92
17Sam BachmanRHPMiami Ohio18.00
18Bubba ChandlerRHP/SSNorth Oconee (GA) HS18.64
19Gunnar HoglundRHPMississippi19.07
20Andrew PainterRHPCalvary Christian (FL) HS20.92
21Will BednarRHPMississippi State21.79
22Anthony SolometoLHPBishop Eustace (NJ) HS24.07
23Colson Montgomery3BSouthridge (IN) HS25.87
24Joe MackCWilliamsville East (NY) HS26.43
25Michael McGreevyRHPUC Santa Barbara26.46
26Jud FabianOFFlorida27.08
27Ryan CusickRHPWake Forest27.30
28Joshua BaezOFDexter Southfield (MA) HS32.57
29Gavin WilliamsRHPEast Carolina32.57
30Jay AllenOFJohn Carroll Catholic (FL) HS32.70
31Adrian Del CastilloCMiami33.17
32Carson WilliamsSSTorrey Pines (CA) HS33.40
33Frank MozzicatoLHPEast Catholic (CT) HS33.50
34Max MuncySSThousand Oaks (CA) HS33.63
35Trey SweeneySSEastern Illinois33.90
36Ethan WilsonOFSouth Alabama34.25
37Jaden HillRHPLouisiana State34.83
38Chase PettyRHPMainland (NJ) HS35.25
39Matt MikulskiLHPFordham35.25
40Izaac Pacheco3BFriendswood (TX) HS36.44
41Tyler WhitakerOFBishop Gorman (NV) HS37.83
42Tyler Black2BWright State38.22
43Wes Kath3BDesert Mountain (AZ) HS39.50
44Connor Norby2BEast Carolina40.00
45Spencer SchwellenbachRHP/SSNebraska40.14
46Ben KudrnaRHPBlue Valley Southwest (KS) HS41.67
47Matheu NelsonCFlorida State43.56
48Lonnie White Jr.OFMalvern Prep (PA) HS43.83
49Peyton Stovall2BHaughton (LA) HS44.00
50Chase BurnsRHPBeech (TN) HS46.75
51Ky BushLHPSaint Mary’s46.75
52Gage JumpLHPJSerra (CA) HS48.60
53Tommy MaceRHPFlorida48.67
54James WoodOFIMG Academy (FL) HS49.40
55Dylan SmithRHPAlabama49.80
56Cooper Kinney2BBaylor (TN) HS49.80
57Josh HartleLHPReagan (NC) HS50.00
58Braden MontgomeryOF/RHPMadison Central (MS) HS53.60
59Maddux BrunsLHPUMS-Wright (AL) HS55.60
60Thatcher HurdRHPMira Costa (CA) HS55.80
61Cody MorissetteSSBoston College56.50
62Noah MillerSSOzaukee (WI) HS57.00
63Jackson BaumeisterRHPBolles (FL) HS58.25
64Alex MooneySSSt. Mary’s Prep (MI) HS60.20
65Doug NikhazyLHPMississippi60.75
66Peyton Wilson2BAlabama60.83
67Christian FranklinOFArkansas61.33
68Robert GasserLHPHouston62.00
69Daylen LileOFTrinity (KY) HS62.25
70Alex Binelas1B/3BLouisville65.80
71Andrew AbbottLHPVirginia66.60
72Ryan BlissSSAuburn67.80
73Davis DiazSS/CAcalanes (CA) HS68.25
74Joe RockLHPOhio68.67
75Michael MoralesRHPEast Pennsboro HS (PA)71.00
76Jonathan CannonRHPGeorgia73.40
77Sean BurkeRHPMaryland74.67
78Edwin ArroyoSSCentral Pointe Christian (FL) HS74.80
79Jackson MerrillSSSeverna Park (MD) HS75.20
80Cody SchrierSSJSerra (CA) HS76.60
81Luca TreshCNorth Carolina State77.60
82Aaron ZavalaOFOregon79
83Michael RobertsonOFVenice (FL) HS81.5
84Carter JensenCPark Hill (MO) HS82.4
85Isaiah ThomasOFVanderbilt82.4
43 Comments
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Angels2020Champs
Super Member
2 months ago

Who had Bachman. Meh

BartonSpringsMatt
Member
2 months ago

Sounds like we’re all pretty much in consensus for the 1st pick, other than the believers in the high school prep arm Jobe. If it’s this obvious, then PMP and team must be thinking the same. Gimme Rocker or Madden and let’s pop some champagne and ride our recent mild success for the next few years to having a real flow of arm reinforcements from the Trash Pandas.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Super Member

Can we draft that dog? He is one smart looking hound and I like the skeptical way he is looking at this draft.

I bet his name is Slider. I like him.

Last edited 2 months ago by gitchogritchoffmypettis
steelgolf
Super Member
2 months ago

Put him/ her on the scouting team.

Fansince1971
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  steelgolf

He is head of scouting under Arte. Works for kibble.

JackFrost
Super Member
2 months ago

That dog would make a better GM than Eppler.

GrandpaBaseball
Super Member
2 months ago

Ty Madden is my first round choice. 6ft 3 in and is a college pitcher meaning close to ready. I even like him long term over Rocker Kumar.

FungoAle
Super Member
2 months ago

Listening to the Baseball America roundtable, the demographic opinions on this draft runs out like this (as graded on the 80/20 scale):

College Pitching: 50
College Hitting: 35
Prep Pitching: 60
Prep Hitting: 65

Turk, is this roughly how you see it?

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Super Member
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

Yes, if we want a solid OF for the future there will almost certainly be a college guy who can provide defense with a 100 OPS+ available in the 6th round…. unfortunately, with pandemic scouting, teams will have to luck into him.

Jeff Joiner
Editor
Super Member
2 months ago

Jaden Hill falling to 45 would be a gift from the baseball gods.

That’s exactly the type of upside play I’d love in the second round.

Jeff Joiner
Editor
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

That would be incredible.

If I knew Hill would be there at 45 I’d go Wicks as my safe first rounder and Hill as my second round upside play.

Jeff Joiner
Editor
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Jeff Joiner

Or Rocker, if he’s actually there.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Super Member
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

I like Thomas, but in that same area of the draft, if we don’t take an arm, I want Luca Tresh, NC State’s catcher. I like him a lot for a round 3 pick. Could be the much missed Napoli, but he might actually be able to catch AND he has an arm.

2002heaven
Trusted Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

Schwellenbach another Ohtani or Walsh? 😃  💪 

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Super Member
Reply to  Jeff Joiner

Cusick, Hill, Mikulski, Mace, Gasser and Abott… there are some pretty solid college arms that could be had at pick 45, though some require a steep fall. There are so many years where I’m not sold on a lot of the pitching available to us round by round in a draft, but THIS year there is a ton of it that falls where we can get them in all four early rounds.

I want like 7 pitchers that we can all turn on and viciously attack as soon as they have a bad two months at Tri-Cities.

2002heaven
Trusted Member
2 months ago

Wonder what yoo thot of Shayne Beeber back in 2016?
Probably sucked to you and said we need to go for a HS kid who throws gas but can’t get it over the plate and has no command whatsoever. That’s OK when your the Dodgers, RS, Cardinals, or A’s, but not us. Yes the three local college programs ( Cal State Fullerton, UCLA, and USC ) probably do way better than us sad to say. 😠  😫  😰 . Remember Perry kept Matt Swanson on board, and that doesn’t scare you?

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Super Member
Reply to  2002heaven

Considering that Beiber lived about 1000 yards from me, there was the off chance he would have sucked to me, but alas magic never happened…. another lost chance for romance.

He was a Gaucho, so I wanted us to draft him just for that. I actually thought he was exactly what we needed, a guy who throws strikes but doesn’t get beat up and doesn’t get eaten by walks who can make our depleted pitching staff quickly.

Do you/can you actually read the comments on this board? You kind of just get a couple ideas per topic burned into your head and then type them out over and over again like Rainman after losing his boxer shorts no matter what a person actually commented. Or you’ll read 30 lines of text and latch desperately onto the six words that pertain to what ever rubber band is humming inside you.

Until this year, the Angels have generally drafted too late for me to want to risk a HS pitcher, the potential pay off wasn’t high enough. I’ve wanted college arms who can advance fast. I liked Canning. Last year I actually wanted exactly who we took, Detmers. But if we ever want to stop complaining about not having a Cole type then this would be the year to gamble on Jobe if he falls to us.

And no. I don’t give two shits about Matt Swanson. Neither you nor I know half dick about Matt Swanson. For all I know all he does is make travel arrangements and collect video uploads and Excel sheets from scouts. He doesn’t worry me at all because I am almost certain that at least 50% of the players drafted over the years will fail.

FungoAle
Super Member
2 months ago

Andrew Abbott would be a fine selection. Hopeful.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Super Member
Reply to  FungoAle

Yeah, I mean, I get why he’s projected third round, but he’s got plenty to like.

Eric_in_Portland
Super Member
2 months ago

it took me awhile to find out the draft starts shortly after 4 pm tomorrow. That’ll be highly entertaining.

I’m leery of high schoolers, especially pitchers. Hunter Green never made it and that experience has scarred me!!! I see Jobe as similar, although maybe stronger.

One thing, though, we need to be patient. We won’t be drafting a pitching staff that’s ready for 2022. If our picks make it up it’ll be 2025 or so, maybe longer.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Super Member

If you can convince the Reds that Hunter Greene never made it and get them to trade him to us for some reserve IF I’d appreciate that.

H.T. Ennis
Admin
Super Member
2 months ago

There’s a Max Muncy in this draft? 😂

Jeff Joiner
Editor
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

I know nothing about these guys but please let us get at least one.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Super Member
Reply to  Jeff Joiner

No joke, I actually really want Joe Rock. He could be a solid starter.

steelgolf
Super Member
2 months ago

The “experts” have is picking an outfielder and then 2 short stops? Yeeesh.

steelgolf
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

Just read a little about Spencer, he could be a pitcher who hits, or a 2nd or 3rd baseman who can provide some relief pitching. Extremely doubtful he would become an Ohtani, but there is some value there if he is trained and utilized properly.

2002heaven
Trusted Member
2 months ago

comment image
Yep I changed my mind yet again!
Jordan Wicks could be Walker Buehler / Shane Bieber / Jered Weaver 2.0 and very polished already ( that’s good for us since we suck at coaching & development ). Walker Buehler was the #24th pick in the 2015 MLB Draft. Yes you don’t have to have a 100mph blow torch. 💪  💪  👈 

Last edited 2 months ago by 2002heaven
FungoAle
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

Works for me. I’ve begun to worry about Kumar but like you, relaxed on Madden. I think there is value in grabbing pitchers with solid command of the strike zone and build out their repirtoire from there. Madden and Wicks have command.

Still hoping Jackson Jobe falls.

JackFrost
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

To what do you attribute Rocker’s recent downturn in velocity? Simply deadarm, or maybe something else ?

Jeff Joiner
Editor
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  2002heaven

Such a safe pick. I’d be happy.

#9 is a pick you don’t want to screw up. Wicks and McGreevy are pretty much finished products. The experts say we’d leave upside on the table but I’m not so sure we’d actually develop that upside anyway.

Jeff Joiner
Editor
Super Member
2 months ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

I love that strategy. To take it further, Frelick and McClain also fit it.

Granted I’d prefer the pitcher.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Super Member
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

A co-worker was joking with me today…. “Josh Hartle, currently attending Wake Forest for summer school, has met a girl named Emily and has withdrawn from the draft.”