Since Mike Trout burst onto the scene in 2011, he’s been running circles around the competition. Despite having played just eight full seasons, the freshwater swimmer has put up more fWAR than any single player in nearly 22 years, has accumulated more fWAR than near-unanimous first-ballot Hall of Famer Derek Jeter, and been nearly cumulatively as valuable as non-Trout Angels outfielders since 2006 (73.4 to 74.3). Phrased another way, Trout has performed more swimmingly than all other Angels non-Trout OFs combined since he was in the 9th grade.
|Most fWAR by Player, 1998-Present|
It’s only fitting, then, that a generationally gifted player has generationally gifted projections that even robots can recognize. PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (remember that at your weekly trivia!), is only one of such projection systems. Produced by Baseball Prospectus, it is unique in that it provides percentile projections for each player.
Mike Trout’s is absolutely, mind-bogglingly stupid good.
Trout’s 99th percentile projection, meaning his top 1% of outcomes, lead him to produce a nearly 12-WARP season (BP’s iteration of WAR), 68 HR, 171 RBI, and a WHOPPING 1.547 OPS!! Trout, for his career, is exactly 1.000 OPS.
Trout’s bottom 1% of outcomes?
An .838 OPS, 35 HR’s, and nearly a hundred walks. That’s not a median: that’s the bottom 1% of projected outcomes.
This is otherworldly. This is splenditudinous! Proof that Mike Trout is incredible, even when he’s not even playing. I wouldn’t have it any other way.
Excuse me while I go lie down and possibly have some salmon to pay my respects.