Mike Trout and his godly PECOTA projections

Since Mike Trout burst onto the scene in 2011, he’s been running circles around the competition. Despite having played just eight full seasons, the freshwater swimmer has put up more fWAR than any single player in nearly 22 years, has accumulated more fWAR than near-unanimous first-ballot Hall of Famer Derek Jeter, and been nearly cumulatively as valuable as non-Trout Angels outfielders since 2006 (73.4 to 74.3). Phrased another way, Trout has performed more swimmingly than all other Angels non-Trout OFs combined since he was in the 9th grade.

Most fWAR by Player, 1998-Present
NamePAwRC+fWAR
Barry Bonds5203 19473.8
Mike Trout5273 17273.4
Carlos Beltran11031 11867.9
Andruw Jones8084 11263.3
Bobby Abreu9847 13059.2

It’s only fitting, then, that a generationally gifted player has generationally gifted projections that even robots can recognize. PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (remember that at your weekly trivia!), is only one of such projection systems. Produced by Baseball Prospectus, it is unique in that it provides percentile projections for each player.

Mike Trout’s is absolutely, mind-bogglingly stupid good.

Trout’s 99th percentile projection, meaning his top 1% of outcomes, lead him to produce a nearly 12-WARP season (BP’s iteration of WAR), 68 HR, 171 RBI, and a WHOPPING 1.547 OPS!! Trout, for his career, is exactly 1.000 OPS.

Trout’s bottom 1% of outcomes?

An .838 OPS, 35 HR’s, and nearly a hundred walks. That’s not a median: that’s the bottom 1% of projected outcomes.

This is otherworldly. This is splenditudinous! Proof that Mike Trout is incredible, even when he’s not even playing. I wouldn’t have it any other way.

Excuse me while I go lie down and possibly have some salmon to pay my respects.

17 Comments
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Designerguy
Super Member
1 year ago

These numbers get me excited.
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Designerguy
Super Member
1 year ago
Reply to  Rahul Setty

LOLBAH

eyespy
Super Member
1 year ago

We need to trade him now. Send him to the Dodgers for Joc. Them worst case numbers are just like Pederson’s, and Joc comes at a very nice price. With the money we save, pick up a couple of 8-7 pitchers, and Arte can pocket the rest. Trout never took us past the regular season. Joc had a massive 2019 post season.

WallyChuckChili
Super Member
1 year ago
Reply to  eyespy

Plus Joc is a Lefty!

Stirrups
Member
1 year ago

It merely took the projection computer operators 8 years to remove their bias against Mike Trout being real.

Somewhere in my attic I still have the 2013 Baseball Prospectus with the projection that Trout would earn the largest year-over-year regression in WAR among active players, to something in the low 5’s. (To save you the clicks, he ended up that year with a bWAR of 9.0 and fWAR of 10.2.)

Tree
Member
1 year ago

The addition of Rendon, the emergence of Ohtani, the comeback of Upton, the addition of Castro, the development of Fletcher, the return of La Stella, the culmination of Simba, is the empowerment of Mike Trout. I think Mike Trout is going to have more opportunities to score runs, to drive in runs, will see more strikes period, with Rendon + Ohtani as protection.

DowningDude
Super Member
1 year ago
Reply to  Tree

Whoa! New editing tools!

I had to go to Google to figure out what Castro was. Totally forgot that transaction

LanaBanana
Trusted Member
1 year ago
Reply to  Tree

Who needs pitching, right?

John Henry Weitzel
Editor
Super Member
1 year ago

Oh those numbers…

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TroutOrTreat
1 year ago

Truly an amazing time with having this guy on the team and seeing how much he can do on the field whether he meets that projection or not!

DowningDude
Super Member
1 year ago

*worsy

Jim Atkins
Trusted Member
1 year ago

That’s not just out there. It’s out there, in a totally tubular sort of way.

GrandpaBaseball
Super Member
1 year ago

Not to bad for a fat guy, is it? Now if he could only hit the ball.

OMAHALOFAN
Trusted Member
1 year ago

Those numbers are ridiculous, he’s so brilliant everyone will have to wear shades to watch him………even in night games.