What to expect from the Angels this season

Spring training is upon us.  Before we know it the sound of the catcher’s mitts will be popping and the batter’s bat will be cracking in front of bustling stadiums in both Arizona and Florida; and not too long after that, games that matter will be taking place.

We already know what we are getting with Mike Trout in center field.  An MVP candidate with an 8-10+ WAR season ready to unload upon the league once again.

So, with that being said, let us take a look at our shiny new offseason acquisition.  Anthony Rendon, who is coming off of a 6.3 WAR campaign, led the NL in doubles and MLB in RBIs while placing third in NL MVP voting in 2019.  Rendon is averaging about 5.4 WAR in seasons in which he plays at least 130 games. The Angels’ collective Third Basemen last year accumulated -0.3 WAR.  An average Rendon year would mean about an additional 5.7 WAR out of our third basemen.

Between Trout and Rendon alone, the Angels have a potent top two.  If they play to their career averages for WAR this coming season, Trout at about 8.1 and Rendon at about 3.9, you have a one-two combo that earns about 12 WAR.  Admittedly, this is a very rudimentary analysis of Career WAR/Seasons played; however, this 12 WAR number would have ranked the Angels (non-pitchers) at 5th in the MLB last year, just ahead of the A’s (11.7) and behind the Twins (12.8).  Assuming the Angels get a combined 0.0 WAR out of the rest of their position players they are looking like a legitimate contender in the AL.

This ignores one glaring issue that has seemed to plague the Angels’ organization for the past decade or so, THE PITCHING.  When your top 4 pitchers are Andrew Heaney, Griffin Canning, Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran you don’t expect much.  The Angels had a dreadful -9.4 WAR among all pitchers last year, good (bad) for 30th (aka last) in the MLB.  Starters ranked 30th with -6.8 WAR, while relievers were nearly league average at 18th with -2.4.  I am essentially pinning my hopes on Griffin Canning taking a step forward this year and being close to his May numbers from last year, 1 K per Inning and below .700 OPS against.  Optimistically we would have about 22-27 starts out of Canning and about 130 innings. Hopefully Andrew Heaney can stay healthy all year and have numbers similar to 2018, 1.4 WAR with 4.15 ERA, 3.99 FIP and 180 innings pitched. 

Considering the Angels only had one pitcher that pitched over 100 innings last year, adding veteran pitchers like Bundy and Teheran is a boon (loose interpretation of boon).  Ideally the Angels will get career averages from both Bundy and Teheran.  For Bundy that means about a 1.4 WAR and 160 innings.  For Teheran we are talking about 2.2 WAR while pitching about 180 innings.  Adding two starters that can start 30+ times a year is almost a novelty for the Angels rotation.  This limits the use of fringe starters that could potentially bring down that Starters WAR.

If we can get about 2 WAR from Canning, 1.5 from Heaney, 1.5 from Bundy and 2 from Teheran, the Angels are sitting pretty.  The combined, though entirely optimistic, 7 WAR from these four starters would have ranked tied for 5th with the Dodgers last year.  The fifth starter will probably be some combination of Jaime Barria, Matt Andriese, Felix Pena, Jose Suarez and Patrick Sandoval.  And once May rolls around the Angels will be able to release their not-so-secret weapon Shohei Ohtani every Sunday, if 2018 is the used blueprint.  Ohtani was a legitimate Ace when he was on the mound his rookie season.  He has had plenty of rest on his throwing arm after Tommy John surgery and could potentially toss about 140-150 innings according to Buster Olney on his baseball tonight podcast from February 19.  That, to me, sounds very ambitious.  I am looking for a solid 17-20 starts from Ohtani at about 5-6 innings per start.  In my projection he would be maxing out at about 120 innings.  Perhaps Olney was adding in some potential playoff appearances.  Ohtani was worth 1.2 WAR over 10 starts in 2018 and assuming he could maintain that production over twice as many starts he would be worth nearly 2.5 WAR as a pitcher.  9.5 WAR would be good enough for 3rd in the MLB.  To any reasonable person the Angels rotation of Heaney, Canning, Teheran, Bundy, a number five, and Ohtani is not the third best rotation the majors, though it apparently has the potential to shatter some expectations.

I will assume that since not much has been added or changed surrounding the relief pitching, the WAR will remain relatively similar at around -2 WAR (I am hoping Buttrey [Ed. Note: Buttery*] improves a bit by not having to appear as much).  So, the Angels have 12 WAR on offense from Trout and Rendon and a net 0.0 WAR from everyone else, this helps temper my optimism from the pitching staff, and around a 7.5 WAR from the pitching side of things.  This is a combined 19.5 team WAR, which would have been good for 3rd last year.  The 3rd place A’s (97 wins) had 13.9 WAR and 2nd place Dodgers (106 wins) had 22.4 WAR.  19.5 WAR would be up significantly from the -9 WAR last year.  The Angels went 72-90 last year, so essentially we are talking about flipping the record, a difference of about 20 wins. I am projecting, and this assumes that there will not be multiple major injuries, the Angels win around 90 games this season.

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jco
Trusted Member
jco
4 years ago

Thanks for doing this. A few observations. Last year, Angels non-Trout hitters combined for about 10 bWAR, so I think your estimate on the non-Trout/Rendon position players is low. Obtani, Simba and Fletcher should have positive value. LaStella, Upton, Goodwin and Castro all have some upside and are likely to have positive value. Depth could be a problem again since last year, the Angels got a combined -6 WAR out of 14 players who were below replacement level (and 1261 PA). Those guys are all either gone (Cozart, Lucroy, Bourjos, Bour), catchers (Bemboom, Stassi), AAAA types (Ward, Hermosillo, Cowart) or Justin Upton. If we can minimize the number of below replacement level players, the team will improve dramatically.

The same goes for the pitching (except for the lack of upside). The Angels gave 604 innings to guys who ended the year below replacement.

Tree
Member
4 years ago

This might be the best Angels team position player wise in Angels History, so I tend to agree that the sheer firepower of the offense and the elite Defense is going to really bouy the weakest link (pitching). I don’t think the Angels Pitching is constructed for a playoff run, but they might over achieve and get us close enough to the playoffs to make the entire season exciting and give us a shot at. getting into the playoffs, and if Eppler pulls of 1 or 2 shrewd trades to enrich the Rotation and Pen, this team is on the Cusp of Greatness.

Jim Atkins
Super Member
4 years ago

Could happen, but a lot of moving parts have to align properly for us to get 7 WAR from this Island of Misfit Toys. If we can get about 4 it’s a roughly 14 WAR improvement over last year, remember. That’s a huge jump. Every year for the last 5 or 6 I’m been telling myself it’s time for the hideous breaks we’ve been getting are due to even out. This year, maybe?

Rahul Setty
Admin
Trusted Member
4 years ago

I think a 90 win projection is quite optimistic given the lack of pitching upside! But I am glad that you’ve put this together because I enjoyed reading it.

DaveinSA
Newbie
4 years ago

Thanks for taking a look at raising my expectations!

I will say though, comparing our WAR to other teams is a bit of a misstep in logic, IMO. Those teams are getting 2-3 WAR from most of the positions in their lineup, and we get 8 from one position. That really matters, as I see it being difficult for two above average guys to actually be worth more real wins when compared to a lineup of above average dudes rolling the lineup over. I’m hesitantly optimistic on the pitching this year as well, even if it is only because we always talk so negatively about it that I have no expectations?

steelgolf
Super Member
4 years ago

I would predict The Angels pitching staff to go from a miserable rank of 30th to a miserable rank of 28th as they look right now.