LA Angels Tuesday News Crash: – Crashing the Pearly Gates

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Brent

1 month ago

Over/Under games Rendon plays next season set at 19.5

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DowningDude

1 month ago

Reply to Brent

I’ll take the under.

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steelgolf

1 month ago

Reply to Brent

I’ll not only take the under, if it is regular season games I will go with zero.

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MarineLayer

1 month ago

Reply to steelgolf

I’ll take the under to zero.

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WallyChuckChili

1 month ago

Reply to Brent

Over

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Fansince1971

1 month ago

Prospect ranking means very little if you are not able to develop players. It basically renders any high school player’s ranking irrelevant in this Organization. Much of ranking has to do with potential- if the Angels are terrible at mining that potential then ranking means almost nothing.

As an example, the top rated prep player is rated that way because of the player he might become if properly taught, trained and developed. That same player might never make it to the Bigs if not properly developed at all levels of the system. So the rankings (particularly of high school talent) are irrelevant to an Org like the Angels that cannot mine that potential talent.

That is why the Angels seem to do better with college players who have been developed by skilled college coaches. However College players also come with wear and tear.

In any event – rankings that mostly factor in potential for development are useless as it relates to Angels’ Organization.

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Super Member

Turk's Teeth

1 month ago

The Fangraphs top 100 rankings have Kyson Witherspoon and Tyler Bremner back to back with the same scouting grade at #67 and #68. That was basically my assessment at draft time – that Kyson and Bremner were largely interchangeable as the best collegiate right-handers in the first round mix.

For those still certain that Bremner was “low ranked”, for Fangraphs that’s not the case. He was in their top seven names, and one of only eight 2025 draftees they felt merited inclusion in their top 100.

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2pints

1 month ago

Reply to Turk's Teeth

Looks like Ethan Holliday is ranked at 21. Would be nice to have a 3B prospect ranked that high in the Halos’ system.

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Super Member

Turk's Teeth

1 month ago

Reply to 2pints

If you believe the Angels could develop him in 5+ years. They’ve had little luck with prep bats since 2010 in that regard, and Holliday looks like he’s going to take some time (K rate near 40% in his first go at low-A ball).

I was a Kade Anderson guy myself, but don’t begrudge the Angels selecting a college RHP with a good track record who is within two years of the show. They need starting pitching as much or more than they need a power-over-hit 3B who is likely to make his impact in 2030.

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2pints

1 month ago

Reply to Turk's Teeth

I understand its deeper than just 21 vs. 67 in the rankings, but its still a rather large gap in rank by a site I trust.

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Super Member

Turk's Teeth

1 month ago

Reply to 2pints

If you really trust Fangraphs, then Liam Doyle is the guy they were hottest on – top of their board, and they dedicated an entire feature on him (in otherwise spotty draft coverage).

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2pints

1 month ago

Reply to Turk's Teeth

FG has him 2 spots higher than Holliday, so kind of splitting hairs at this point.

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Turk's Teeth

1 month ago

Reply to 2pints

Longenhagen ranks more according to upside than probability. I’m going by FG’s actual draft coverage and Eric’s commentary in features and chats, where he’s suggested there’s a lot of risk in Holliday’s profile, and he thinks Doyle is unicorn with his FB.

Longenhagen dedicated an entire paragraph in his capsule to all of the red flags in Holliday’s hitting profile (“alarming” “pause-giving” “playing with fire”), and included almost nothing of the sort in Doyle’s. It’s pretty clear to me who he’s most excited about.

Plus, I’ve maintained for many years that I find Eric’s scouting profiles more valuable than his rankings, which are, honestly, a little idiosyncratic (and too infrequently updated). He’s explained in the past that he ranks on ceiling, and there are lots more busts near the top in his rankings as a result. YMMV.

Moreover, folks take rankings more as absolutes than they should – these are tiers of players, and each prospect publication takes different approaches on how they tier. Outcomes depart from draft rankings reguarly, and I think you should look to the composite picture of many rather than the exact ranking of one.

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2pints

1 month ago

Reply to Turk's Teeth

So what you’re saying is Perry didn’t blow it by not picking Holliday, he blew it by not picking Doyle. Doesn’t make me feel better haha

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Super Member

Turk's Teeth

1 month ago

Reply to 2pints

I’m not saying that at all – and if you read my (very extensive) draft series this year, you’ll know I don’t believe that. I’ve even pointed out in this very thread who my #1 was.

I’m saying that, if Fangraphs is your jive, then FG loved them some Liam Doyle. (As did Keith Law, btw.)

But Doyle is a very divisive prospect. Boom-bust. His injury risk scared me off personally. I think he lies on a spectrum between Sam Bachman and Garrett Crochet. The latter comp is a possibility, but I’m worried that the former comp is more likely.

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BannedInLA

1 month ago

Reply to Turk's Teeth

The specter of a potential Sam Bachman-II should/would understandably scare the Angels off.

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Roy Hobbs

1 month ago

Reply to Turk's Teeth

And that is really Arte’s conundrum. Not recognizing that players are either drafted or developed, either by your organization or someone else’s, or they acquired via trade or free agency. Drafting and developing players is by far the less expensive way to go but does require upfront investment. The Angels have reached the point where their farm has not and does not produce enough useable players and buying them has become too expensive and more than they are willing to pay.

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Fansince1971

1 month ago

Reply to Roy Hobbs

That dynamic right there – a lack of investment in developing players combined with a lack of willingness to expand the budget -will keep the status quo (72 wins +/- 3) for the foreseeable future.

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gitchogritchoffmypettis

1 month ago

Reply to 2pints

I can literally, off the top of my head, think of more than 21 prospects I’d rather have than Ethan Holliday… in a couple years? Maybe not. But now?

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Turk's Teeth

1 month ago

Reply to gitchogritchoffmypettis

I remain surprised that so many people are still so confident that Holliday was the move in the 2025 draft. He’s far more high variance than other potential #1 picks – even Washington thought so, and Eli Willits got out to a much stronger start out of the gate, so it wasn’t simply a discount move selecting him.

Holliday wasn’t a Bryce Harper, Carlos Correa or Justin Upton prep pick, let alone a polished collegiate like Paul Skenes, Strasburg or Cole.

Holliday is a kid that might become an above average bat on the left side of the infield. But he might also become a low-average power bat with chronic contact troubles. As I said at the time, he might be the best player available, but there’s much more of a fog of uncertainty around that than in other draft classes.

Analysts were rather divided on whether Willits, Holliday, Hernandez, Doyle or Anderson should be top dog, but they were all in consensus on the fact that the top of the draft class was weaker than average, and that almost all teams in the first half of the round would cut discounts as a result, and there’d be surprises. That all proved true.

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2pints

1 month ago

Reply to Turk's Teeth

There’s a few reasons for me as to why I’d have preferred Holliday; his dad & his brother, the team having a black hole at 3B, you mentioning that he was one of the few being discussed by analysts as deserving of the top pick (while Bremner was not), the Halos’ difficulties developing pitchers, the high propensity for pitchers to get hurt and miss long periods of time (just yesterday you mentioned Bremner is already having elbow issues).

I don’t think its too far of a stretch to see why people would clamor for Holliday, but I also don’t pay as much attention as you and respect your opinions on the subject.

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Roy Hobbs

1 month ago

Reply to 2pints

All good points. Turks is simply saying that considering our organization, Bremmer was a better match and will contribute sooner. Holiday would have been a good pick for another organization but for us, he’s very high risk.

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2pints

1 month ago

Reply to Roy Hobbs

Right, I get that. TT expressed his surprise that people would prefer Holliday over Bremner. Fangraphs released rankings where Holliday is 46 spots higher, so its not unreasonable to discuss the draft choice made by Perry.

I’m fairly skeptical though about the notion that the Halos’ farm is better suited to develop Bremner over Holliday.

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Roy Hobbs

1 month ago

Reply to 2pints

That’s a valid concern

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Super Member

Turk's Teeth

1 month ago

Reply to Roy Hobbs

Though as a counterpoint to drafting-for-need, the Angels just selected seven prep pitchers in this last draft – and steered most of their capacious draft pool in that direction. They passed up a lot of close-to-the-show polished bats to do that.

Even drafting Bremner – who has some work to do on his FB and SL – was a more patient selection than grabbing Doyle or Anderson, who both look closer to the MLB to me.

This year’s draft was actually rather short on short-termism.

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Super Member

Turk's Teeth

1 month ago

Reply to 2pints

Just to be clear, I didn’t say that I’m surprised that people prefer Holliday – I said that I’m surprised that folks are so confident he’s better than Bremner. He’s a risky profile. This is really a discussion about the probability that either guy makes an impact on their respective team, imo.

And to put in further perspective Longenhagen’s rankings – look who he likes in the Angels system. Other than Bremner, he’s highest on Klassen. Klassen is a guy that had a very rough season, and who has fallen out the top 100 of every other major publication’s top 100. But just on tools, he’s alluring. Probably 10% chance of realizing those tools as a starter (as opposed to a late reliever), but if you’re ranking just on upside (and not on a mix of upside and likelihood), that’s a justifiable result.

That’s why I say Eric’s rankings are idiosyncratic. He elevates risky profiles more than other estimators. If a guy has a tiny chance of becoming a superstar, he’ll often value that much more than a prospect who has a solid chance of becoming an average everyday player. That’s an interesting approach, but it’s not how I personally would rank prospects. But I appreciate his insights apart from that, and follow him precisely because he’s often contrarian to consensus.

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milehigh

1 month ago

Reply to 2pints

Can’t wait for dad and brother to show up and play for him.

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2pints

1 month ago

Reply to milehigh

quite the zinger! you sure showed me

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Turk's Teeth

1 month ago

Reply to 2pints

I’d say the Angels struggle much, much more with developing prep bats than they do with developing college pitchers (or college bats). One of the reasons I repeated (probably ad nauseum) that I didn’t think Holliday or Willits were optimal fits for this organization. Set aside that Holliday (or Arquette for that matter) is not an immediate solution for 3B – the former is 3-5 years away, not two. Jackson Holliday is still not a league-average hitter himself, and he had a better hit tool than Ethan.

I’m also one of the few on this board who has been vouching for Bremner (and did at draft time as well) – and have been trying to point out that, to the contrary, many analysts did have him as the top pitcher in the draft – for longer than they did not. Bremner was a highly regarded prospect for a year-plus, and only fell to the middle of the first round in rankings in the final 2-3 months of the season.

I’m trying to get people to move beyond thinking of mid-season rankings as absolutes, and look at the large picture here.

Last edited 1 month ago by Turk's Teeth

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2pints

1 month ago

Reply to Turk's Teeth

I don’t take the mid-season rankings as absolutes. I’m fully prepared for the rankings to be adjusted, and would love it if Bremner vaulted to the top in the next rankings iteration. I’ll happily admit I was wrong if Bremner ends up a better MLB player. I’d actually be ecstatic if that happened since I want the Halos to be good.

With the team in its current form, I’d have no problem waiting 3-5 years for Holliday to mature. If Bremner debuts mid to late next season and is nails right off the bat, I don’t think that’d make the team even .500. This team will not be good any time soon, and will not sniff the playoffs for even longer. Drafting for immediate need, as Perry has done in recent years, has not helped, and I’d argue has hurt them from building a solid foundation for long-term success.

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Turk's Teeth

1 month ago

Reply to 2pints

I’d just follow up on that line of thought and say that I think a lot of people wanted Holliday due to immediate need. You said so yourself: the team needs a 3B.

The fact that people are already mentally sliding him over to 3B speaks to that desire, despite him still having a viable path as a SS, and being more valuable there.

Holliday is going to take time – and the Angels like to rush their prospects. So the match doesn’t seem great to me. Maybe in the pre-contraction Stoneman era, where we had neutral entry-level parks in Iowa, and more affiliates, more coaching.

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2pints

1 month ago

Reply to Turk's Teeth

Yes, the team needs a 3B, and has for a while. I’m not aware of any other 3B in the system that are perceived as future MLB talent, but I could be wrong on that. Please let me know if I am so I can root for whomever that 3B prospect is. So saying the team needs a 3B isn’t me saying I expect him to be rushed and on the team in a year or two.

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Turk's Teeth

1 month ago

Reply to 2pints

Obviously – but the Angels needs are more plentiful and diverse than just 3B alone at this point. They lack power at every corner plus frontline (hell, even mid-rotation) pitching of any variety.

Look at the top of my boards in recent years and you’ll see me acknowledging a need at the hot corner – Matt Shaw (3B) was top of my board when the Angels selected Schanuel. Cam Smith was #2 on my board (after Yesavage) when they selected Moore.

But you have to balance fit, risk, developmental timeline, probability and upside in my opinion. Ethan is high on upside and risk, with a long timeline and an even tougher fit in this organization.

Last edited 1 month ago by Turk's Teeth

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Super Member

Charles Sutton

1 month ago

Reply to Turk's Teeth

I think some people are so glum that they seriously reaching for things to complain about. The draft happened. Bremner is our guy. Why not give him a chance to show us what he can do?

I don’t think we can get a Mulligan. Maybe we shouldn’t.

Last edited 1 month ago by Charles Sutton

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2pints

1 month ago

Reply to Charles Sutton

you serious? I was responding to a comment about rankings that came out today. Seemed like the opportune time to discuss it.

But if you aren’t glum about this team, then I guess you just like the taste of shit in your mouth. Good for you bro.

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2pints

1 month ago

Reply to gitchogritchoffmypettis

You having that amazing ability to think of 21 guys off the top of your head has literally zero bearing on my opinion that I wish the team had drafted Holliday, no offense. But yes, in a couple years is when I’d think he’d be ready to contribute, not right now, yet he’s still ranked #21, right now. I’ll defer to the guys at Fangraphs over you.

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gitchogritchoffmypettis

1 month ago

Reply to Turk's Teeth

all I know is Ethan Hilliday > Bazzananana

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Turk's Teeth

1 month ago

Reply to gitchogritchoffmypettis

Too early to give up on Bazzana, but as my pre-draft comments suggested, I liked guys like Burns and Wetherholt if the Angels were selecting #1 that year, and I think both have justified that confidence with their 2025 seasons.

Bazzana and Condon have definitely underperformed preseason expectations, and Kurtz overperformed. But late blooming is a thing, and each of the former guys should probably be given 1-2 more seasons before they’re deemed busts.

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Jeff Joiner

1 month ago

Reply to Turk's Teeth

Bazzana is an interesting case in that he’s posted great OBP marks at 2 different levels. That indicates he sees the ball well. But his average is really low and his slugging is decent but not elite.

Perhaps he is too passive, but the ability to recognize strikes is nearly impossible to teach at the AAA level and he has it. I’d think with some more aggressive swing decisions he should see his offensive profile rise.

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Turk's Teeth

1 month ago

Reply to Jeff Joiner

I think the low BA and Ks have surprised everyone, since he had such an elite contact profile in college.

But as you note, he’s sitting there with a 24% BB rate in AAA, and was 36% better than the competition this year per park-adjusted wRC+, so he remains a strong prospect (#26 on the Fangraphs top 100, since we’re discussing them here).

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Jeff Joiner

1 month ago

Reply to Turk's Teeth

Cool. I really enjoyed watching Witherspoon pitch and would have been quite happy if he was the pick (assuming it was under slot).

FG has better insight than I do, so if they say it is a coin flip, that’s good news.

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Turk's Teeth

1 month ago

Reply to Jeff Joiner

I would have been fine with Witherspoon as well. But yes, Fangraphs has been high on Bremner for a while, and took the longer view on a few early season wobbly starts than other mid-season forecasters.

I just try to remind people that Bremner and Arnold were the consensus top arms, prep or college, coming into the 2025 season. Bremner was #2-4 in many mocks, and the first pitcher off the board in several as well. He finished the season strong, but was overtaken in the updated rankings by standout performances by Anderson and Doyle down the stretch, plus the general belief that prep shortstops were the strength of this year’s class.

So prospect gurus had to contend with a little recency bias and some exclusion bias. Will Doyle and Anderson have better careers than Bremner, Witherpoon and Arnold, or were they just fresher in the mind, with the spectacle of the CWS eclipsing past exploits of the others? Your guess is as good as mine.

I went with Anderson in my draft because I liked his pitch portfolio, his delivery, and what looks like a durable package with some projection left. The CWS performance was a plus, but not the key deciding factor for me.

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MarineLayer

1 month ago

Reply to Turk's Teeth

After Minasian’s 20 pitcher only draft whiff,, why should we think he’s smarter than everyone else this go around.

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red floyd

1 month ago

No Halos on the Aaron list? I’m shocked, SHOCKED!!!! Well, not that shocked.

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Angelz4ever

1 month ago

Reply to red floyd

…please add”…and appalled!”

Last edited 1 month ago by Angelz4ever

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Jeff Joiner

1 month ago

Some teams with huge arbitration classes. I expect Perry to trade for a non tender candidate or two like usual.

Kierboom is an obvious non tender candidate here.

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Jimmuscomp

1 month ago

Reply to Jeff Joiner

Yeah – agree. Also, Ward at $13 million seems high, but for roughly .800 OPS it’s not bad.

I’d still try to trade him this offseason. His defense is bad, and he’s not in our future plans. Might be able to wrestle a decent prospect or two – like real prospects – for him by trading with the right team.

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cookmeister

1 month ago

Reply to Jimmuscomp

Ward’s defense is really overblown. He’s pretty average across the board (slightly above average by some metrics, slightly below in a couple)

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Super Member

YOUknowulovetheIE

1 month ago

Reply to cookmeister

Do those stats track over throwing the cut off man, running slow, and having a noodle arm?

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cookmeister

1 month ago

Reply to YOUknowulovetheIE

He’s actually very slightly above average in speed, and a little below in arm value.

Overall, -1 DRS and 0 OAA for 30+ homers… that’s pretty darn good.
Nobody is claiming he’s a gold glover. But he’s not the worst defender of all time that people make him out to be.

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gitchogritchoffmypettis

1 month ago

Reply to Jimmuscomp

Ward makes perfect sense…. for the Reds. A team that is in the post season broderlands and just needs a little more offense. 13M is a bargain if it means you might advance in the play offs or make them regularly. For us? It’s paying 13M so Trout doesn’t feel too lonely at nice meals.

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cookmeister

1 month ago

Reply to gitchogritchoffmypettis

Ward for Singer (not exactly a perfect swap but some kind of combo there) makes sense imo

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Super Member

Turk's Teeth

1 month ago

Reply to cookmeister

Poetic justice. The Angels trade their 2015 first rounder for the guy who was the BPA on my first round board when they selected Jordyn Adams.

Singer has been more serviceable than elect since drafting, but I’d take his fairly steady 3 WAR over the alternative most days.

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AngelsFanInHell

1 month ago

Reply to Jeff Joiner

Trying to think about what Perry is going to do makes my head hurt. More power to you.

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gitchogritchoffmypettis

1 month ago

Reply to AngelsFanInHell

It’s not what PTP WILL DO. It’s what you would do. That’s more fun. Perry is gonna do some trash and then take three shots of booze and tell the media we intend to compete in 2026 because we reload.

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steelgolf

1 month ago

Reply to gitchogritchoffmypettis

He may need 5 shots of booze.

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Eric_in_Portland

1 month ago

Reply to gitchogritchoffmypettis

it should be called IIWGM then

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MarineLayer

1 month ago

Reply to gitchogritchoffmypettis

One place we know he won’t go is the gym.

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Roy Hobbs

1 month ago

Reply to Jeff Joiner

It will be entertaining to see what Arte/Perry do this off season. I have to think that Arte would prefer to limit salary liability going into the strike. Perry said that the club needed LH bats so I wonder if either Ward or Adell will be replaced by one. I interested to see what all the creative thinkers here would do if they were Perry. A fair amount of money should be available this year and even more next year. I’m not convinced that if they traded Ward and Adell, added 2 legitimate starting pitchers, and played Moore in LF, Guzman at 3B, and Paris at 2B, that they would win fewer games than they did this year. Not saying that’s what I want, just something I believe to be the case.

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Jeff Joiner

1 month ago

Reply to Roy Hobbs

Non-tender candidates typically have a year or two remaining before free agency. They aren’t paid huge money but they aren’t bargains either. Hence the very low trade value.

Jorge Soler, Hunter Renfroe, and a couple of others have been acquired this way.

Even more than the impending work stoppage, I think Arte has to be looking at the fact his TV money only has 2 seasons remaining on it.

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cookmeister

1 month ago

Reply to Jeff Joiner

Renfroe was in the last year of arb

Soler wasn’t a non tender candidate. He had a guaranteed multi year free agent contract

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Jeff Joiner

1 month ago

Reply to cookmeister

Correct on Soler. My mistake.

Renfroe was due a nice chunk of change that KC didn’t want to pay.

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cookmeister

1 month ago

Reply to Jeff Joiner

Angels acquired him from the Brewers, but ya that wasn’t exactly $$ they wanted to spend.

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gitchogritchoffmypettis

1 month ago

Reply to Roy Hobbs

Exactly. I know we are gonna suck. But we can suck with a purpose.

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gitchogritchoffmypettis

1 month ago

Reply to Jeff Joiner

LET THE VIDAL BRUHAN ERA BEGIN!

Just kidding. But sadly, I just can’t see how we get anything much better than that in an arb trade. We just don’t have the farm for guys who will likely be somewhat available. Say Brendan Donovan. The Cardinals will likely trade him cause of rebuild. But the whole point for them is not just to save 5M. The point is to get prospects for a guy who won’t be around when they are competing again.

Just to put things into perspective for those who accept the fact the the SIM isn’t emotionally attached to stuff the way we are, Brendan Donovan is valued at +26.1. Zach Neto is at +29. So that’s our most golden of boys. They will want the same type of return for Donovan as we will for Neto.

They will also be smart enough to go out and get that. We will hold onto Neto till he has a +8 value like Adell or the incredible +6 value Taylor Ward and his 100 RBIs ZOMMZ! has. Which in the eyes of real GMs puts him on the same level as Cardinals catcher Jimmy Crooks.

BUT, on the plus side, Cardinal fans will be left asking “WHO will play second base? WHO will we watch?” and we won’t. We’ll be watching basically the same team again while the Cradinals plan to REALLY suck…. so seven more losses than us….

I was looking at the Cardinals though because Nolan Gorman is a guy they may be willing to move on from. I remember great floods of weeping when we didn’t draft him. He is still in Jo Adell limbo. Not good enough, but also shows flashes of being good. Maybe we can get him and fix him up a little? Start him at 3B?

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Jeff Joiner

1 month ago

Reply to gitchogritchoffmypettis

The Cardinals are smart enough to rebuild and publicly say there are rebuilding. This buys them some time with their fan base.

I’d love to pick up Gorman and hypothetically traded for him in previous articles (including an Ohtani trade piece back when Gorman was considered to be a big time prospect).

To reveal a bit of my off season piece, Jo Adell to Cincy would net us Edwin Arroyo who had a really nice season in AA and more than has the glove for 2B as he is a SS.

If the Reds put Adell in RF and moved Marte back to 3B, that lineup looks a lot better.

The Angels pick up a guy who should post decent OBP and play really good defense. But the Angels won’t rebuild so this won’t actually happen.

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Roy Hobbs

1 month ago

Reply to Jeff Joiner

That would be a great move.

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Jeff Joiner

1 month ago

Reply to Roy Hobbs

Was just reminded the Reds have Hayes at third base. I should know that, they traded for him this summer and I watched them play several times.

Hayes has a pretty big salary for a guy who plays great defense but doesn’t hit much. He has 4 years and $30 million guaranteed plus a $6 million buyout. So essentially 4/36.

He did put up 1.5 bWAR despite the lack of offense and our defense was atrocious this year.

The sim takes Adell for Hayes, TJ Friedl, and Edwin Arroyo as a slight win for Cincy. No way that happens in real life, but I’d take that combo in a heartbeat.

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