NCAA Top Prospects week #7

The College season is going by very rapidly, and the draft will creep up now that opening day has passed. The top prospects have been featured nearly every time, with the inclusion of another star who has been impressive. Now that 2 months of College Baseball have flown by, I’d say the Angels’ best bet is a pitcher. I’m not sure who it could be, although I think it should be Arnold, Bremner, or Doyle, and while I’m at it, the Halos might draft Prager, for the second time. But what do I know, I’m not even an Angels fan, and now that I’ve said I think it will be a pitcher, it’ll probably end up being Ethan Holliday.

I have to admit, I’m getting some hope here. Jace might be starting to heat up. His last few weekend performances haven’t been too shabby, and I’m hoping his play continues to be better. He’s even got his average up around the .300 mark. It’s .296 to be exact. Which is only 9 ticks lower than it was last year. Now it’s time for his weekend stats. Friday: 2-4, RBI, BB, Sat: 1-3, 3BB, Sun: 0-2, 2BB. Jace is starting to heat up, and I hope that this continues. I have no clue why I like Jace so much; there’s just something about him that makes me want him to succeed.

Moving on to our first pitcher of the night Tyler Bremner didn’t have such a great outing this week. His stat line 3.2IP, 8Hits, 6R 5ER, BB, and 4Ks. This was Bremners worse start of the year so far and I’m making a strong educated guess that this will stay his worse start of the year because I think we all know how good Bremner is. The only thing that’s concerning is that his fastball is flat, in the future I’d like to see him work in 2seams to play off his nasty change up.

Staying on the Bump we have Florida States Ace, Jamie Arnold. Jamie has been doing very well this season and in my opinion If he keeps pitching how he has been he will most likely be the first pitcher off the board. Now that I’ve hyped up Jamie, lets talk about his outing this weekend. 4.2IP, 4hits, 2R, 4BB, 4Ks. I would have to imagine that Jamie’s pitch count was up in this game because I’m not sure why he got yanked so early. (And anyone feel free to correct me or fill me in down in the comments I wasn’t able to catch this game.) I’m sure Jamie will work his way into the 7th inning in his next start because that’s what he does, he gets outs, and is very good at it.

last but not least, Liam Doyle. Tennessee’s most exciting lefty. I don’t know why but this week just wasn’t great for the top pitching prospects across the country. Liam doyle didn’t do horrible, but he did give up 9 hits and surrendered 5 runs. The rest of his stat line, one BB and 11K’s. A very common theme with Doyle is no matter what this dude is going to strike people out. He knows it and we know it. This guy leads the SEC with 73 punchies in 36.2 innings. That’s 2 strikeouts an inning, absolutely absurd K numbers from Doyle. Looking forward to a better upcoming week from all of our guys.

Stay tuned for weekly updates on the best players in College!

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RexFregosi
Super Member
25 days ago

Texas A&M @ Tennessee this weekend – Doyle and Jace go head-to-head

RexFregosi
Super Member
23 days ago
Reply to  RexFregosi

Doyle and Rocky Top dominated Prager &A&M 10-0. Jace goes 0-2.

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
25 days ago

Nothing really changed for me this week – Arnold still my top pick, with Seth Hernandez the backup. Holliday, Marek Houston and Liam Doyle rounding out the top five.

I do worry about injury and reliever risk with Doyle – broad spectrum of outcomes from Crochet to Bachman with that body and delivery.

Hernandez just dominated his last start – still throwing 97 in the 7th inning, 20+ whiffs on his changeup. 13Ks vs 1BB.

RexFregosi
Super Member
25 days ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

I’ve come around with drafting Arnold or Doyle would be ok thanks to TT saying risk is pretty much the same, but a HS pitcher??? not there yet – lol

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
25 days ago
Reply to  RexFregosi

Hmm, I don’t think I’ve ever said that Arnold and Doyle are risk-equivalent. Doyle is a much more high variance pick. Arnold is the pick that combines both relative safety and ceiling.

RexFregosi
Super Member
24 days ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

To clarify, I meant the risk equivalent between a top hitter and top pitcher, not between the pitching candidates

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
24 days ago
Reply to  RexFregosi

Ah. Thanks for the clarification.

Pineapple12
Super Member
25 days ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

Holliday or Hernandez plz and thank you.

Kevin
Member
25 days ago
Reply to  Pineapple12

Is there any proof Holliday is good? I read an article about him a few months back noting he really struggled hitting against good high school talent. How does that make him a number 2 overall pick?

cookmeister
Trusted Member
25 days ago
Reply to  Kevin

Elite pedigree, elite exit velo (with wood bat at a young age), eye test, rankings.

You have to kind of put yourself in his shoes a bit, and we don’t know exactly the convos that go on with his coaches (and the other teams). I can’t imagine the other teams are throwing him many strikes, and him taking walks might not be the best chance for his team to succeed all the time.

FungoAle
Legend
25 days ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

Same concerns about Doyle and such high usage rates on the FB. But I can see him being in play with Minasian, a Tennessee Volunteer and his tendency to select these reliever arms.

In no way do I see Minasion taking a high schooler with the 2nd pick. That’s too bad because the Hernandez outings are just getting started and looks impressive.

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
25 days ago
Reply to  FungoAle

I just think, if you have a top pick in a draft without a clear 1-1, where the depth makes the talent difference between the first and third rounds less obvious, the team should go for upside over safety. No pitcher has more upside than Hernandez in this draft class.

It’s not like the Angels are one year from competing for a ring, and the lower levels of their minor league system are patchwork, without much clear impact talent.

cookmeister
Trusted Member
25 days ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

I just think there is too much risk in a HS pitcher. For every Hunter Greene, there are 3 Riley Pint’s, Jay Groome’s, and Carter Stewart’s

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
25 days ago
Reply to  cookmeister

But this game is easy to play with virtually every player type. Brendan McKay, Andrew Vaughan, Nick Denzel, Corey Ray for college bats. Mark Appel, Danny Hultzen, Dillon Tate, for college arms. Hell, Moniak for prep bats.

As someone who has done draft analysis for multiple sites for a good long time, you’ll find me cautioning against high school pitching in round one again and again. So if I’m arguing for one in this draft, it’s the exception to the rule. Because you also have to look at each player, and each draft class context, independently. And I think Hernandez is a special player, and most of the alternatives are not compelling (or safe) enough to argue overwhelmingly against him.

cookmeister
Trusted Member
25 days ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

Oh for sure, there’s going to be “busts” at every position/level no matter what. But half of those guys you mentioned at least made it to the big leagues and didn’t flame out after 2 years

I just wonder statistically top 3-5 selections by position/level what the success rate looks like. I’d imagine high school pitching is pretty low

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
25 days ago
Reply to  cookmeister

Well, college players are naturally going have a higher matriculation rate (even rule 5 draft rules reflect that), as they’re older and more polished, but it doesn’t really speak to ceiling.

The studies I’ve seen suggest the attrition rate is higher with prep players, but elite pitchers were just as likely to have been drafted out of high school as college. If you look at currently active players by career WAR, many of the dominant pitchers in the sport – Kershaw, Fried, Wheeler, Snell, Cole – were first round prep arms. (Cole was actually drafted in yhe first round twice, declining to sign with the Yankees initially).

So it’s really a risk/reward calculus. Same with prep bats – the biggest in the game like Trout, Betts, Machado, Arenado and Freeman were highschoolers at drafting.

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
25 days ago
Reply to  cookmeister

And what I like about Hernandez is that it’s not just about velocity. He already shows four above average pitches, but his best by far is a 70 grade changeup – a weapon even college arms struggle to develop. You just don’t see prep kids who can hit triple digits and also possess a double plus cambio at this age. That’s the package that folks are selling Bremner with, but Hernandez’s FB and CH are a tick better.

All pitchers can succumb to injury, but this is a guy with an ideal pitcher’s frame, a smooth and repeatable delivery, and a FB and CH that maybe only 2% of college starters possess.

Part of the reason why the attrition rate with prep arms is higher is that many of those draftees in aggregate are incomplete packages that are being drafted based on projection, and one or two standout pitches. Hernandez is not that. He’s a much more complete player, on all sides of the game.

cookmeister
Trusted Member
24 days ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

Fair points. You make a compelling argument. Still makes me hesitant compared to others. It’ll be interesting to see what happens.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

I’m VERY pro college player for us…. but I’m getting mixed a bit. I want Arnold, sadly he is clearly better than my fellow Gaucho Bremner. BUT if he’s off the board I kind of want Hernandez.

I’m afraid of high school arms, sure. But am I more afraid of them than Doyle’s max effort two pitch arsenal? I realize I’m not. Hernandez is a horse. He is smooth. He already throws a change up. He already throws harder than Doyle or Bremner.

If we want an “ace of the future” he’s pretty much our best shot. And he’s not much riskier than Doyle. We also have a ton of arms that will come in ahead of him and have a “floor” including guys like Detmers all the way down to Dana. We’d need to pay him #2 money cause he’s likely to get a lot of NIL cash, but I don’t see that as a big risk for a home run swing at our high pick. Honestly I like Hernandez a lot more than Holliday.

There are plenty of position players I’d be glad to get “stuck” with as well. But if we can’t get Arnold I’d kind of like to go for it and roll the dice on Hernandez. He’s the only guy I see developing into a serious #1 perhaps Cy Young type pitcher. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s from the IE.

Jeff Joiner
Editor
Legend
25 days ago

Hernandez offer the Angels the type of upside we don’t currently have on the farm. You can dream and dream big on the kid.

He also offers more risk. But as Perry has stocked up on decent floor/limited ceiling arms for the last two years perhaps now is the time to add this level of upside despite the risk.

Eric_in_Portland
Legend
26 days ago

it is April 3rd. This is fun speculation. By July we’ll have a lot of excitement about a bunch of guys who will have had torrid seasons. It will have been worth suffering through a 63 win season.

cookmeister
Trusted Member
26 days ago

It’s still Jace or Holliday for me. Nothing has changed

Holliday I think is the best overall talent and would be a great get.
Jace has “struggled” and still put up solid numbers. He’s starting to heat up, and I think he’s finally just playing and not worrying about the pressure of playing well with the team playing poorly and Grahovic being out (losing their 2nd best player and basically his protection in the lineup had to hurt his psych)

Pineapple12
Super Member
25 days ago
Reply to  cookmeister

Holliday is the best prospect imo. Does Washington let him get to us? Would we take him if he does?

RexFregosi
Super Member
26 days ago

Texas A&M is 1-8 in SEC play so far.

I guess NIL money doesn’t buy what it used to

Kevin
Member
26 days ago

Yikes. Unsurprising starts for the group. Unless any of these guys are true control artists, I would like to see bigger guys for the hard-throwing power pitcher role. More of a Lance Lynn body or Tyler Glasnow. That’s just me though.

It seems various pitching talent that doesn’t have one significant trait still needs ample development.
But maybe I’m wrong?

Have any of these guys via their last starts and other work looked really exciting for Halos fans?

Jeff Joiner
Editor
Legend
26 days ago
Reply to  Kevin

Overall body of work suggests Arnold is probably the safest starting pitcher selection in the draft. Similar to the Detmers pick in which he’s not projected to be an ace but should be a solid 2 or 3 and MLB ready quickly.

Looking over the last month, though, it is impossible to dismiss what Liam Doyle is doing in the toughest conference in the country.

Kevin
Member
25 days ago
Reply to  Jeff Joiner

Thanks Jeff. Nice analysis. Although any analogy to Detmers has me unbelievably nervous.

Jeff Joiner
Editor
Legend
25 days ago
Reply to  Kevin

Prospects don’t always live up to the hype. But the thought process in taking Detmers was spot on and if you make that move multiple times, it will work out more than once.

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
25 days ago
Reply to  Jeff Joiner

I think there are many scouts that believe Arnold has ace potential. He’s received Chris Sale comps more than Detmers comps, and he’s a consensus top three prospect across all major draft publications.

If Detmers is your floor and Sale is your ceiling, that’s a pretty safe spectrum given the risk inherent in any draft.

Jeff Joiner
Editor
Legend
26 days ago

I was at that Bremner start. Lots of effort in that delivery and the fastball was straight.

That said, it was 1 outing on a pretty cool night.

At this point I have no idea who the pick might be. But Tennessee has talent all over the diamond.

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