What should the Angels do, what will they do, and who is available at the top?
What we know about this year’s draft class
It’s deep, but there’s not a lot of elite talent at the top of the board.
That means that there will be MLB regulars and potential stars that emerge from the top 100-200 picks, but the first dozen or so have not convincingly separated themselves from other early round draft prospects. Several talent evaluators have indicated that no one in this draft class would have been convincingly a #1 pick in last year’s draft, and maybe not even top 5 in 2023. The best college pitchers this year are probably a tick below Chase Burns and Hagen Smith, who went in the top five last year (and who, some control issues aside, are torching AA this season).
This seems to inevitably hug the rail of Angels’ destiny.
Of course the first time in a generation the Angels nab a top five draft pick, the available talent is comparable to the options they’ve had on the table in drafts where they’ve selected #8-15 over the past six years. Que sera, sera. You’ll hear all sorts of wobbly words used to describe the top of the field this year: “unsettled”, “muddled”, “up for grabs”. Consequentially, many will tell you that the Nats and Angels have as many as 8-10 names still in the mix, whatever prognosticators think they’re likely to do based on past tendencies.
For this reason, I don’t think fans should sweat it too much if they hear that the Angels are considering going underslot to fetch a discount on their first-rounder so they can spread around the savings to later picks.
This is a totally reasonable approach this year.
The slot bonus for the #2 pick is $10.25M, which is frankly a little crazy for amateur talent, and most teams don’t see a player currently on the board that merits an eight-figure bonus. And that’s fine – it’s why you’ll hear that the Nationals are considering going underslot as well. It’s not just a mean-Moreno bargain hunter gambit. There’s just not a clear #1, when all of risk, upside, projection and performance are accounted for.
So… quantity over quality?
Well, that may be putting it too strongly – there are still plenty of quality prospects in this draft. But.
This is a year that it’s better to have extra draft picks than top draft position.
So be it. The Angels already have an extra pick between the third and fourth rounds.
They also have potentially tradable talent, and plausible options to acquire other CBA picks in the first (mid-30s) and second (late 60s/early 70s) Competitive Balance rounds. Contenders like Detroit, Seattle and Minnesota could really use an upgrade at 3B (Moncada!). Contenders like Cleveland could really use an upgrade in the OF (Ward! Adell!). This would be the year to go all out to maximize the bonus pool and # of top 100 picks.
The Angels already have the third largest bonus pool among MLB teams; even one CBA slot acquisition would give them the largest pool altogether, which, when taken with the ability to go 10% over the pool while not losing future draft picks, would give the Angels a lot of flexibility to hoard college talent and take a couple risks with long-horizon high schoolers with big tools (and big bonus demands to forgo college commitments).
So where is this draft class “deep”?
Three player demographics are notable.
There is a ton of prep positional talent, especially shortstops and up-the-middle types. There’s a lot of college left-handed pitching – not all of it elite, but hoards of credible back-of-the-rotation types, arguably throughout the top ten rounds. And there’s also a fair number of college outfielders – a lot of power-over-hit types, and college performers.
But this is a first round draft post – so who is in play for the Angels in the first round?
While the top of the board is, yes, “unsettled” – there are still 8-9 names that have emerged among the various rankings in prospect media that represent something of an industry consensus on the top names available. Those include four prep players, four college pitchers, and one college hitter. I’m going to discuss them in four subgroups, according to how I personally see them.
High Risk, High Reward Arms:
Seth Hernandez + Liam Doyle
This is where plenty of fan debate is happening. These two guys are the strongest performing pitchers in the prep and college ranks respectively this year, so it makes sense that they’re getting a lot of attention. Hernandez is one of the most polished high school RHPs in a decade, and many consider him to have the highest ceiling in the draft among any player demographic. People aren’t afraid to use the word “ace” with this kid, and his fastball and changeup stand out as now tools superior to even most current collegiates.
Meanwhile, Liam Doyle is the SEC Pitcher of the Year and one of three finalists for the Golden Spikes Award. He has the most dominating fastball in college baseball. He uses it almost 70% of the time, and college kids with metal bats can’t touch it, especially when he’s working the top of the zone.
So what are the downsides? Well, for Hernandez it’s simple: the bust rate in the first round is higher with RH prep pitchers than any other player type. Kids with big arms break, or they take time to develop, sometimes figuring it out later, with a team different from the one that drafted them. Or they wash out altogether.
The Angels haven’t used a high first round selection on a high school pitcher in a quarter of a century. That waas Joe Torres, in the 2000 draft. (Didn’t work out.)
In Doyle’s case, well, just look at the body and delivery.
To me, that’s indeed a relief look – and he’s a pretty killer reliever indeed, based on his performance in the Knoxville Regional vs Wake Forest. Whether the delivery is described as “high intent”, “max effort” or “explosive”, it doesn’t take a ton of clairvoyance to imagine shoulder, back and elbow injuries down the road. Or, for a guy who lives top and bottom of the zone – control and command challenges that narrow his path to high-leverage work in the late innings when face to face with tighter strike zones, more disciplined hitters with wood bats.
The Angels haven’t had great luck with using high picks on fastball-dominant pitchers of late: Sam Bachman and Ben Joyce are obvious examples, but it goes further back to big-velocity relievers like Cam Bedrosian and RJ Alvarez as well. It’s true that all of those guys are righties, but who was the last left-handed starter the Angels drafted in the first round with a 70-grade fastball who worked magic at the top of the zone? That would be Sean Newcomb. Traded before he matriculated, but I think it’s obvious that the subsequent career was middling, to say the least.
Now this is not to say that failure’s a given. There are always dreams of Crochet and Skubal to chase, and maybe Doyle reaches that ceiling down the road. He begins with one incredible weapon! (Baseball America dedicated a whole feature article on it in March.) And he’s also developed a rather effective split-change this season. The catch? He only uses it 12% of the time. Will he develop into a lights-out starter when his secondaries are such recent tools, and used so infrequently? Despite the smoke that Liam Doyle is a plug-and-play MLB guy, there’s plenty of development still needed here.
“Safe”, High Probability Arms:
Kade Anderson + Jamie Arnold + Kyson Witherspoon
Speaking of smoke, I’m not going to blow it up your hindquarters here. There’s no such thing as a “safe” college pitcher. But there are three guys in the first round draft conversation who combine strong college performance with repeatable deliveries and diversified pitch portfolios to suggest that the median outcome, absent serious injury, is a mid-rotation performer who’ll provide a few valuable years to the team who drafts him. All three of these guys have plausible futures bouncing between #2 to #4 starter profiles.
Here’s a convenient side-by-side of the lefties that Halos prospect hound TBW recently provided:
Arnold and Anderson are not unfamiliar archtypes to Halo fans. On recent Angels teams, it’s probably reasonable to comp guys like Reid Detmers, Andrew Heaney, Patrick Sandoval, or Tyler Skaggs here – at least in terms of potential value, roles and outcomes.
Detmers and Heaney were also top-ten draft picks. Sandoval and Skaggs were high-schoolers but overslot bonus and late first-round guys respectively. A selection like this might disappoint those hoping to net a frontline weapon with a top-five draft pick, but this is probably Not. That. Draft. As volatile as Detmers has been, he’s still accumulated the second-most WAR of any pitcher chosen in the 2220 draft. Heaney has had a long, useful career. Obtaining a mid-rotation horse from the first round of this draft is probably a very good result.
So how do you tease this cluster of college shovers apart? Jamie Arnold has the longer track record – two years of superior college performance – though he’s tended to tire a bit and has been somewhat more hittable toward the end of each season and in tournament play. Kade Anderson has the deeper pitching arsenal, with four above-average weapons, a touch better command, and also has the most helium at the moment, as he’s really posted down the stretch. On the other hand, he’s only two years removed from TJ rehab (he missed his HS senior year to Tommy John) so some see sand pouring through an hourglass when it comes to the durability of that ligament.
Then there’s Kyson. I’ll let coach/scout David Seifert evangelize here a bit:
Here’s some excerpts from Keith Law’s draft capsule: “Witherspoon will hold 95-97 deep into games, topping out at 99, with a five-pitch mix that includes a slider and cutter that run into each other, along with a 55 changeup that he needs to use more often. He has such good arm speed on that last pitch that it looks like it should be a real weapon for him, especially against lefties…There’s so much to work with here, and a strong foundation of arm strength and strikes, with No. 2 starter upside if he gets the right development help. He won’t turn 21 until a month after the draft.”
Unfortunately for Witherspoon, he saved his worst outing of the year for his final appearance of the year, in front of many scouts and front office reps, in the Chapel Hill Regional against a formidable North Carolina club. 9 runs in 4 innings. Only three of those were earned, as he suffered some lapses from his infield defense, but he didn’t convincingly recover, and gave up some longballs in the process.
Now, tournament play is volatile, and sometimes a bit random. #1 national seed Vanderbilt was completely owned by a scrappy one-hit performance by sophomore Griffin Paige of Wright State, who entered the game with an ERA near nine, and dominated one of the best offenses in the tournament. But it’s unlikely that Witherspoon won’t have his draft stock impacted at least somewhat by four innings of flail on his biggest stage yet.
Not that that should erase an excellent season, where he made undeniable progress on his command and the overall polish of his pitching arsenal.
Positional Power Plays:
Ethan Holliday + Aiva Arquette
This group is a mirror image of the first group, in that these two are the consensus top prep and college position players in the class, and they have a bit more in common than you’d think at first glance.
Both currently shortstops, they’re each expected to move off the position to third base eventually in pro ball. Arquette is 6’5” and while he proved this year to be a more than capable SS for Oregon State, he still has a bit more strength and projection to come, and guys this big tend to move to the corner. It’s also notable that Arquette played a strong 2B for most of 2024, so a team drafting him has some flexibility on the dirt, and above-average power up the middle is a fairly rare, and valuable, commodity.
Does it surprise you to hear of Arquette discussed as a power bat? While power is definitely Ethan Holliday’s calling card, with many giving him a 65 grade in the boom dept, with 35 HR potential, others see 60 grade game power from Arquette, with 25+ HR potential over the long run. Keith Law even dropped a surprisingly familiar name as a comp in his latest Big Board update: “25-homer upside with a strong eye and what could be really good defense at third, a Troy Glaus-ish profile”.
The question for both players is the hit tool. Holliday has been inconsistent on the showcase circuit, where he’s often been pitched around, and has reached a bit, perhaps in a desire to demonstrate his abilities – though he’s had a quite strong spring down the stretch. Arquette’s had contact issues in past seasons, but has made good progress in 2025, getting his K rate down to around 16%, with superior bat speed that projects to greater power, but the caliber of pitching he’s faced at Oregon State, with their indie schedule, has not been as fierce as his SEC and ACC peers, and he’s seen less of high-quality offspeed than others in those leagues. It’ll be interesting to see how well he does in this weekend’s Super Regional tournament, where he’ll surely face Jamie Arnold in the three game series against Florida State.
Up-the-middle Long Bets:
Eli Willits + Billy Carlson
The unquestioned strength of this draft is high school shortstops, and more generally prep infielders and up-the-middle types. Shortly after the players above are selected, we can expect to see a run on the deep treasure trunk of prep toolsheds that fill this draft class, maybe as many as 10+ in the first round. This includes names like JoJo Parker, Kayson Cunningham, Daniel Pierce, Steele Hall, Tate Southisene and others – though the two cited most frequently within the top ten are the boys here, Eli Willits and Billy Carlson.
This is a player archetype the Angels frequently turned to in the second and third rounds during the pre-Minasian era. Kyren Paris, Jeremiah Jackson, Jahmai Jones, Nonie Williams, Brandon Marsh, David Calabrese. Toolsy, projectable and young – SS/2B and CFs – and there’s plenty of scuttlebutt that the Angels are doing quite a bit of reconnaissance on this year’s crop, perhaps hoping that one will slide to them at #47, or even later in the 11-12 round range, where they’d use pool savings on an overslot deal.
It’s honestly a bit surprising that we’ve not heard more connection of the Angels to Eli Willits, given both the profile and the familial connections (he’s the son of former Angels OF Reggie). Listen to enough draft podcasts and you’ll find many draft experts who feel that Willits is firmly in play for the 1-1 selection in the draft, as there are simply few holes in his game. 60 grade defender and runner, advanced hit tool, performance against strong competition. Many feel he’ll hit at a high level, and there’s enough projection in his frame that he’ll get to average or better power in time.
Meanwhile, Billy Carlson is Seth Hernandez’s teammate on this year’s best high school club at Corona. Considered by many to be the best defensive shortstop in the country – 60 grade glove, 70 grade arm – he’s a high contact, line drive hitter who has shown a bit more power in the recent season, though will probably remain a hit-over-power guy at the next level. Similarities to Konnor Griffin, who went #9 in last year’s draft. I imagine it’s an interesting choice in draft rooms considering Carlson vs Wake Forest’s Marek Houston. Houston in many ways is the upside case for Carlson in three years. A game changing defender who has some game power questions, but a no-doubt shortstop in any case.
Dark Horses?
With an Angels team potentially eyeing a discount, it’s impossible to rule out off-the-boards selections. This is the team that drafted Matt Thaiss, Will Wilson and Jordyn Adams after all – guys largely well out of the rumor pool until the final 24-48 hrs before their names were called at the podium.
There are definitely players who will be going in the 15-35 range, well before the Angels 2nd round selection, who the team might value. Golden Spikes Award finalists like shortstops Alex Lodise and Wehiwa Aloy. Hit merchants like second baseman Gavin Kilen. The aforementioned Andrelton-esque defensive wizard Marek Houston. Big power bats like Ike Irish, Andrew Fischer and Mason Neville.
Do I think any of these are likely? Probably not, but it’s not unfathomable that the Angels of all teams go counter the consensus and overpay a couple youngsters down the line.
So who do you think the Angels will ultimately draft?
Well, I can tell you first who the experts think they’ll draft. There’s been increasing uniformity among the recent flagship mock drafts, all converging on the selection of Tennessee Vol Liam Doyle.
It makes a lot of sense, as it checks several boxes vis-a-vis recent Angels drafting trends. College performer who posted big down the stretch? Check. Big fastball with reliever traits? Check. Projected to be ready to pitch in the MLB in 12-18 months? Check. Connections to the Appalachian schools, especially Tennessee? Check.
That last one is, I think, more fire than smoke. The Angels love them their Vols. They drafted Christian Moore, Ben Joyce (and his brother Zach), Garrett Stallings, Zach Linginfelter – all from Tenn in recent years. And when they aren’t drafting Vols, they’re drafting from other regional schools in the Appalachian corridor like Louisville (Detmers), Vandy (Murphy), or southern Ohio (Bachman). Clearly regional scouting is focused there (TX/OK is another hot spot).
If not Doyle, many understandably feel the Angels will pick one of the other polished college pitchers available, or Aiva Arquette – all consistent with the pattern of getting-them-to-the-Bigs quickly and plugging holes on the MLB team. It’s a strategy that has yet to produce a club with a winning record yet, and has generally kept the Angels’ farm in the bottom three of MiLB rankings for almost a decade. But it’s also a strategy that seems to have ironclad support from ownership, and it’s hard to predict the front office deviating from it until there’s evidence that they’re willing to.
To be fair, more than one analyst has said that they think the Angels are “not out” on highschoolers like Hernandez and Willits (though there’s been less connection to Holliday), and their scouts have been seen at Corona contests in recent weeks, but everyone is in a “wake me up when it happens” posture until they’ve zagged away from the obvious.
What would Mr. Teeth do?
Beyond my top preference, this isn’t as easy a decision as it might look. My read on how the top four college arms project changes a little week to week, as I observed them more in actual game contexts, and look deeper into pitch use and play against competition. Much also depends on how the Angels choose to use their considerable bonus pool, whether they secure additional CBA picks, and who/how they draft in the next 6-8 rounds.
I think I’ve been fairly consistent in recent weeks that, should he be available at #2 when the Angels select, I’d probably select Seth Hernandez. I’m fully aware of the odds against a prep righthander remaining intact and making it to the Bigs in 3-5 years. But I also think this is a draft class without a no-doubt alternative, it’s very rare that the Angels select this high, and there’s a possibility that all of the top names struggle to perform in the near future. So it seems intuitive to play for upside, despite the risks, and pick the kid with the highest ceiling, and that’s Seth Hernandez.
It’s also abundantly clear to me that the Angels have almost no path to securing frontline pitching outside drafting it. Moreno does not pay out for pitchers in years or AAV, and has not won bidding wars when he has been rumored to be in the hunt. Anaheim is not an attractive destination for many ace-level arms (taxes over weather!), so the team has to overpay for what they get, and it’s hard to imagine a future where ownership is doling out $35M-45M/yr on a front of the rotation guy, nor would I say it’s wise to do so.
And whatever happy talk you may hear from Angels boosters of late, I don’t think it’s coming from the current farm, which still looks like a scrapyard that needs to be rebuilt from bottom to top. The only life we are seeing at present is from Complex League and DSL lotto tickets, and some longshot attempts to convert sinkerball relief to five- and six-inning up and down starters. In. My. Opinion.
So go big, and draft Seth.
If he’s not available, it’s a tougher assessment. While I remain Holliday-curious, I also know that the Angels have not successfully developed an impact prep bat in the post-Trout era. We’re eight years into the Jo Adell project (and he was the national high school player of the year when he was drafted), and Adell is only now sniffing a league-average wRC+. The most chronic and endemic problem in the Angels system is quality contact – whiffs are an issue from the ACL to Anaheim – and that’s the biggest concern with Holliday. So dropping him into the Angels system seems like one of the least supportive environments for him to reach his ceiling.
I’m not sure I can confidently say the same of the young pitching in the Angels org. Whatever their current day-to-day struggles, guys like Jose Soriano, Jack Kochanowicz, and Caden Dana have been some of the rare success stories from the farm. All were teen draftees, Latin or domestic. Recently traded Mason Albright is in AAA and likely to be promoted soon. The Angels hit rate on prep pitching talent has arguably been higher than their hit rate on college pitching, and certainly so when looking at the quantity of college pitching they’ve acquired in the Minasian era (eg, 2021 all arms draft).
All that said, if Hernandez is unavailable, I’d still turn to the collegiates next. At the moment, I probably favor Kade Anderson and Kyson Witherspoon at the top, Chapel Hill implosion not withstanding. They’re the youngest of the quartet, both have 4+ pitches at their disposal, and their deliveries and command don’t scare me. Doyle might have more upside, but I think it’s a narrower path to success, and the injury/relief risk is troubling.
After Hernandez, Anderson and Witherspoon, it’d be a tossup between Arnold and Arquette. Arnold’s track record is very good – I just think the fastball is a little soft, and he’s fatigued a bit down the stretch each year. This might all be a part of maturation, and I might change my mind in time, but Kade and Kyson just look a tick more projectable if we’re hoping for a #2 starter here.
Meanwhile, I’m surprisingly (to myself, at least) a bit more at peace with the scenario where the Angels seek high-floor safety and go with Arquette. If we’re stuck with the quick-to-the-show formula under current ownership, Aiva Arquette provides a decent bet on that model. He fits neatly into 2nd or 3rd base alongside Neto, and suggests similar outcomes. Potentially above-average glove and bat, and 20-25 HRs like Zach – it advances the plan of building a young core of non-superstars, but affordable kids who are above average in any case.
I can imagine a successful econo-draft where the Angels select guys like Arquette, Gavin Turley (OF) and Mitch Voit (2b/3b/OF) in the first three rounds, getting high probability college bats to the club to fill obvious holes by 2027. And there’d be savings along the way to spend on 2-3 high schoolers on overslot deals.
It might not be the most thrilling outcome – but after 15 years of subpar drafting and development, thrills can always take a backseat to ‘mere success’. Three cheers for modest returns???
Let me know what you’re thinking in the comments.
