NCAA Top prospects week #6

As we move deeper into the College season, the prospects continue to fluctuate weekly. In all honesty, I thought for the most part the list was going to stay somewhat the same. I wasn’t expecting to have at least 1 new guy a week, but here we are.

Starting with Jace LaViolette, sadly, the truth is that he has not been as consistent as most thought he would be; he doesn’t have the numbers that most thought he would have at this point in the season. Jace, the past couple of weeks have been doing a little bit better and I’m hoping his numbers will go up because I do like him. His stats for the week, Friday: he started hot, 2-3, 2RBI, Sat: 1-4, and Sun: 1-3, 2BB. I’m not sure how much Jace’s draft stock has dropped to this point in the season, it may drop more, or it might go back to where it was to start the year.

Now going to Jamie Arnold, surprisingly enough Jamie got hit around quite a lot this week. It should be nothing to worry about, pitchers can’t have a fantastic outing every time, and I think that he is the favorite for the Angels’ No.2 Pick. His stats on the weekend: 4IP, 7 hits, 3BB, and 2Ks. I’m sure Jamie will bounce back in his next start. There’s not much to talk about here except for the fact that he didn’t have a great start, and that’s about it.

Staying on the bump, we’re going to Tyler Bremner next. He’s posted a pretty good stats to start his year, he has a 3.26 ERA through 30.1 IP and only 8 walks to his 33 strikeouts. Bremner’s outing fits along well with how his season has gone so far, his stat line, 6IP, 6 hits, 3ER, 2BB, and 7k’s. The only thing with Bremner to really touch on is, he hasn’t gone too deep into games yet this year and that is one thing i’d like to see from him is to get a couple complete games or just into the 7th or 8th inning. I know it’s still decently early in the year, but I just noticed he hasn’t worked very deep into games so far.

Now for our last prospect, he is a new addition, which has been a pretty common thing so far. I just think he had to be included with the season he’s put up so far, quite impressive. Shortstop from Wake Forest, Marek Housten, he’s hitting .404 in 99 AB’s so far, he has 40 hits and is slugging .758 with an 1.254 OPS. I would keep an eye out for Marek because I do belive that he will work his way up the ranks come draft day. His stats on the weekend, Friday: 1-4, Sat: 2-5 1RBI and a walk, Sun: 1-3 1RBI and a walk. Marek has not been talked about much compared to other names(that’s just what I’ve heard and seen) but he is for sure a name to look for.

Stay tuned for weekly updates on the best players in college!

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gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend

How would you guys feel if some 3B, say Fischer at Tennessee, or a SS like Marek Houston that can become a 3B, just eats up pitchers for the next two months but is still ranked say the #9 draft prospect? Would you be pissed if Perry used the #2 pick on him?

There ARE a fairly nice pile of college arms in that pick #47-105 range…. but we would also clearly be drafting “under slot”. Oh no. Cheap Arte.

Last edited 30 days ago by gitchogritchoffmypettis
Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
29 days ago

Marek is a no doubt top ten pick – one of the safest picks in the draft. I don’t think he’ll have the sort of power he’s showing in D1 ball at the MLB level – the exit velocities don’t really portend that. But his defense is so superior, you might get a 4+ WAR Andrelton Simmons type out of him, with 12-15 HRs a year, which would be just fine. I think he’s an everyday shortstop, and there’s no shame in using a high draft pick on that.

Fischer, like Young and Robbie Burnett, is one of my fixations at the moment. But #2 just seems too rich for a guy who had significant chase issues until this season, and who has already slid over to first base for Tenn. I love his power and bat speed, though, and don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that he’s a first baseman, but he seems accurately mocked as a second round or supplemental guy.

Eric_in_Portland
Legend
29 days ago

the MLB draft is a lot of guesswork. Sometimes the #25 pick turns out to be better than the #1.

Jeff Joiner
Editor
Legend
27 days ago

Way too far out to tell how I’d react.

Houston plus some extra dough to make sure the Prager situation doesn’t repeat sounds like a solid plan.

We simply can’t blow this draft, though.

Jeff Joiner
Editor
Legend
30 days ago

Went and saw Bremner live today. He pitched like he’s already on the Angels.

Slider is filthy and fastball has good velo but it’s arrow straight and got rocked.

He seems to be regressing this year.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend
Reply to  Jeff Joiner

Yah. Arnold and Doyle have looked better. Honestly so has fellow Gaucho Donovan Jackson. We’ll have to see if he snaps out of it or not. I know from some UCSB Baseball guys that he is/was weak from getting sick, so we’ll have to see. I wonder if any of the Angels scouts who don’t exist were at the game….

Jeff Joiner
Editor
Legend
29 days ago

There were definitely more scouts than usual at the game. Granted I tend to go to Sunday games but it was easy to see a contingent of radar guns behind home plate.

Hopefully he is recovering and will be dominant down the stretch.

FungoAle
Legend
29 days ago
Reply to  Jeff Joiner

Bremner is a guy who needs his off-speed stuff to set up the fastball. Angels need to do better.

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
29 days ago
Reply to  Jeff Joiner

That FB is what makes me nervous about him – and more inconsistent command this season. I keep going back to Longenhagen’s backhanded compliment on Bremner: “He’s a high-floored fourth starter prospect and has a good shot to be the first player from this draft to debut”.

More floor than ceiling, fast mover. Sounds like an Angels pick, dammit.

It’s just hard for me to see picking Bremner over Seth Hernandez, since Seth’s FB and change already grade out better than Bremner’s, and the kid has ace projection for miles and miles.

Meanwhile, Bremner has Canning vibes – mature West Coast performer who has above average stuff, but who might genuinely fall down boards due to durability concerns (and inconsistent performance).

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

Yeah…. the durability is more worrying to me.

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
30 days ago

And here are three top seven round fantasy draft mocks, with the CBA trade dream intact.

(Just a way to track interesting players, really – not remotely a prediction.)

#2 Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
CBA: Quentin Young 3B/OF (HS)
#47 Andrew Fischer 3B, Tennessee
#79 Robbie Burnett 2B/OF, Georgia
#105 Logan Lunceford, RHP, Wake Forest
#109 Ryan Wideman, OF, Western Kentucky
#140 Matthew Dalquist RHP, UC San Diego
#169 Colin Yeaman, SS, UC Irvine
#199 Dylan Loy, LHP, Tennessee 

#2 Ethan Holliday 3B (HS)
CBA Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville 
#47 Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
#79 Joey Volini, LHP, Florida State
#105 Brent Iredale, 3B, Arkansas
#109 Dale Francis, RF/1b, Alabama State 
#140 James Quinn-Irons, OF, George Mason
#169 Alex Lodise, SS, Florida State
#199 Charles Davalan, CF/2b, Arkansas

#2 Seth Hernandez, RHP (HS)
CBA Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama
#47 Zach Root, LHP, East Carolina
#79 Jared Jones, 1b, LSU
#105 Tanner Franklin, RHP, Tennessee
#109 Grant Jay, C, Dallas Baptist
#140 Dominic Fritton, LHP, NC State 
#169 Ryland Zaborowski, 1b/OF, Georgia
#199 Jake Munroe, 3B, Louisville

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

Kind of deep cutting here but you watch this stuff more than most. Sort of 3-5th pick type guys here….

I watched video of Pico Kohn out of Miss State. Watched a few IP too. WTF is his magic? he doesn’t throw hard, but his FB/Slider mix is just eating SEC guys up. I’ve read he messes with the FB a lot and his arm slot’s hard to hit? But 53K vs 7 walks? My pal at Auburn said he’s way better than Prager. You know much about this fella?

Same with Aidan Haugh at North Carolina. He’s made it all the way to his senior year, though I was told he was a Jr transfer. But he’s looking better than Arnold. Similar stats to Kohn but Haugh throws pretty friggin hard, has a good looking curve and slider and at least uses a change up.

Also, Marcus Phillips is getting overshadowed by Doyle at Tenn but that guys is a beast. He looks like a defensive end. He throws hard, has a slider, dah dah dah but it seems like he figured a bunch of stuff out just this year, but he looks really good on video at least.

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
29 days ago

“Sort of 3-5th pick type guys here….”

Well, yes, that’s the exercise – to mock a potential Angels draft through the first seven rounds (first 200 selections). The guys at 3-7 are guys who plausibly might be available at that point.

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
29 days ago

Guys like Kohn is where you really have to start teasing apart performance in a college context from projection. He’s basically a two pitch guy just beginning to develop a change piece, but many college kids struggle with off speed and slider recognition, so Kohn’s slider is enough to put them on their heels. But what does a 92mph FB and decent slider get you in pro ball – maybe to AA?

But lefties like Kohn are also candidates for velocity enhancement. If that 91-93 fb becomes more of 94-95 daily driver, he could play. He already had a Detmers comp on him in high school, so you can grok the wide spectrum of outcomes here. I still think he’ll get selected in rounds 4-8.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

You got Lunceford, Dalquist, Anderson, Volini, Root…. I’d be happy with any of those arms where you were taking them.

Third base solutions… I’d love getting Iredale that late in the draft, but there are so few actual 3B this year he may not be there. I have looked at Yeaman as maybe a guy who can move to 3B. Same with Maximus Martin at K State and the other Lodise (Kyle) at Georgia Tech and Logan Sutter at Purdue (who may be a 1B in the end) in later rounds.

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
29 days ago

I think an early fourth round selection of Iredale is actually pretty aggressive.

Remember, he was draft eligible last year and went undrafted. Happens to college performers all the time. Guys like Ryan Nicholson who hit 23 HRs in the SEC and sign for $1k in the tenth round. Currently, Baseball America has Iredale ranked at #203 with some questions on long term defensive placement and how the hit tool will play with wood bats.

Perhaps the most standout performer of the ’25 season is Robbie Burnett of Georgia, but he doesn’t even make the BA 300, despite being among the D1 leaders in almost every statistical category and being a big game performer. Kole Calhoun grinder type with few obvious holes, and these guys can quickly become day two selections.

I’m also skeptical that many draft rooms target players specifically for 3b, as opposed to up the middle athletes who may slide over eventually. More focus on body types, swing mechanics, athleticism, makeup than current positional use.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

Yeah. like Fontenelle was a monster his last year at TCU. Though past about round 4 I really wouldn’t mind if they used a couple picks on Fontenelle/Iredale types. Or 3B from SS conversions.

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
29 days ago

Kyle Lodise is actually on my board for 7-10 rd picks.

I have more of these mocks, with a much longer list of names, but don’t want to try everyone’s patience by nerding out to an audience of four, lol.

FungoAle
Legend
29 days ago
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

To your point yesterday, Mariners are in on Seth Hernandez. Perry would be wise to lean on that signal (as I don’t trust him otherwise)

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend
Reply to  FungoAle

I’d be pretty excited to get Hernandez. Especially if we get a comp pick in trade. There are really solid position players that we can get in picks 30-47.

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
30 days ago

We were beginning this conversation over in today’s news crash, so just reposting here. My first round board:

Jamie Arnold LHP (college)
Seth Hernandez RHP (prep)
Ethan Holliday 3B (prep)
Liam Doyle LHP (college)

Tyler Bremner RHP (college)
Wehiwa Aloy, SS/3B (college)
Marek Houston SS (college)
Kyson Witherspoon, RHP (college)

Quentin Young 3B/OF (prep)
Xavier Neyens, 3B (prep)
Gavin Kilen, 2B (college)
Dean Curley, SS/3B (college)

I’m fairly sold on those first three names, with Arnold as the main target, and given the depth of college players in the class, more tolerance than usual to take a big swing on a prep kid like Hernandez or Holliday if Arnold is grabbed at #1.

cookmeister
Trusted Member
30 days ago

I’m all in support of BPPA- Best Position Player Available.

Guys like Skenes were an exception, not the rule. Arnold and Bremner are good, but they aren’t sure fire difference makes that warrant a #2 pick imo with the volatility of the pitching position

Jeff Joiner
Editor
Legend
30 days ago
Reply to  cookmeister

As of today I’d take Arnold by default. Same logic as taking Detmers in that he looks too polished to not turn into an MLB regular.

But I’m really holding out hope that some position player takes the rest of the year by storm and we end up with that bat we can dream on.

Turk's Teeth
Editor
Super Member
30 days ago
Reply to  cookmeister

The thing about BPA – to the extent we can suss out such a thing from wisdom-of-crowds ranking averages – in a deep draft class like this with less impact talent at the top, but less separation between, say, the first and third or fourth rounds, every draft room is going to have a different take on the BPA.

I’ve heard this take expressed a few times of late – that college pitching is somehow more volatile than other player types. Not sure where it’s coming from, as that really isn’t borne out at all in the numbers – either looking at career WAR or simple %s of draftees who make a 26-man roster.

College pitching is actually a fairly stable value player type, certainly more than prep postional or pitching talent, and its highly tradeable value. If you look at recent drafts where the first round has largely made it to maturity – say 2016-2018 – you see a lot of college pitching at the top of the leaderboards.

gitchogritchoffmypettis
Legend
Reply to  Turk's Teeth

But what if I want to start complaining about Angels draft picks before the draft? I think you are ignoring the scientific fact that nothing is easier to whine about than draft picks in baseball. There will be a couple dozen of them every year, and as long as I don’t pay attention to the fact that everyone has loads of picks that go nowhere I can go to this piss well again and again.

Hell, I can even get all wibbly lipped about future picks. You name a position or age group. It’s volatile since no one can promise me they will be stars. Thus I have a problem with drafting players in general. You may not be able to assure me on any one players, but I assure you I can always complain about the draft.

Eric_in_Portland
Legend
30 days ago

I’m still pretty high on Aiva Arquette of Oregon State. Maybe it’s because I watched him go 3 for 3 vs Washington the other day. Currently hitting .365 with a 1.154 OPS.

He wouldn’t be a good pick at #2 but if we were to get a pick in the 30s…..

cookmeister
Trusted Member
30 days ago

he won’t make it to the 30’s unless he gets hurt or absolutely stinks the rest of the year

Jeff Joiner
Editor
Legend
30 days ago

The only constant on these lists is change. By July you’ll have covered a couple dozen prospects.

As of now the only reason Arnold wouldn’t be 2 is if he’s 1 but conference play is about to begin and the SEC top performers will matriculate up the lists. Guys like Bremner will have to completely dominate lesser conferences to stay up there.

Arnold is in the ACC which is tough. Not SEC tough, but tough. I wouldn’t be surprised at a couple of Big 12 guys making some noise. Maybe not top 2 noise but moving up quite a bit.

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