Breaking Down the Griffin Canning Decision

When UCLA hurler Griffin Canning fell out of the first round and into the Angels lap during the 2017 MLB Draft there was much rejoicing in Halo-land. A local kid with a first round grade was just the thing the Angels needed. Overall, the results have been mixed and Griff is one year or one decision away from free agency.

MLBTR projects Canning to take home a $5.1 million salary next season and the Angels need to decide whether to pay that sum or let Canning enter free agency.

Here’s a look at Griffin Canning’s career thanks to baseball-reference.com.

All in all, Canning has been about 8% worse than the league average pitcher in his career. If he was a steady 92 ERA+ year in and year out, the decision would likely be a very quick “yes.” After all, 171.2 innings in 2024 is a notable feat.

Unfortunately for Griffin and the Angels, the only real consistency with Canning is his inconsistency. It is reminiscent of Earvin Santana, or similar to teammate Tyler Anderson. The last four seasons in which he’s pitched have wavered from better than average to ERA+’s of 80 and 81. So there’s a bit of a gamble here.

If Canning happens to return to his 2023 levels and pitch 3% better than the average MLB hurler, $5.1 million would be a steal at 171.2 innings and a solid deal at the same 127 innings Canning posted in 2023.

In looking at Canning’s baseballsavant.mlb.com page you will see wide variances from year to year on pretty much all aspects of his game.

So in looking at strictly performance, there’s no real guarantee as to what the Angels will receive for their $5.1 million. If the good year/bad year trend continues, the Angels are looking at a quality starting pitcher for a well below market wage. If Canning has peaked, they are looking at blowing $5.1 million that could go elsewhere.

If strictly looking at risk/reward, I think the decision to keep Canning around is a pretty easy one to make and I expect the Angels to keep him in the fold. Of course, more than just Canning’s performance needs to be taken into account.

In looking at the Angels 40 man roster there is a young crop of pitchers that have some MLB experience or are knocking on the MLB door. In addition to Jack Kochanowicz and Caden Dana, both of whom made their MLB debuts this year, the Angels also have George Klassen in the fold. Plus Davis Daniel is crushing it in the Arizona Fall League and former first round pick Sam Bachman spent the last few months of last year starting in AAA.

As of now, the Angels starting rotation would likely be Jose Soriano, Tyler Anderson, Griffin Canning, Reid Detmers, and Jack Kochanowicz. Ideally a free agent with top of the rotation upside is added to the fold, but it doesn’t appear that signing Canning would block any pitcher with huge upside in our system.

In short, I fully expect the Angels to keep Griffin Canning in the fold due to a combination of low price and the need for an experienced starter in the rotation. The worst case scenario is Canning has another down year and is released having cost less than Matt Moore made last year. The best case scenario is he pitches his butt off in a contract year and helps the team finally win some games. And there are plenty of scenarios in between including becoming a trade chip in July.